The Second Half of the Chessboard...

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reserved
Copyright © ian fenwick. All rights reserved
MBA for Life Seminar:
The Second Half of the Chessboard
Dr Ian Fenwick
May 11, 2015
Professor of Marketing, Sasin Graduate Institute, Bangkok
Professor Emeritus, Schulich School of Business, Toronto
Visiting Professor of Marketing, Griffith University
Founding Partner, AnyPrep LLC
…why the future’s bound to be weird

I’m really not a fortune-
teller. This presentation
is about what we can
already see around us

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://time.com/29910/facebook-can-identify-faces-as-well-as-you/
Story told about the inventor of
chess…his ruler liked the
game so much he offered the
inventor anything he wanted
He asked for 1 grain of rice on
square 1, 2 on square 2, 4 in
square 3, doubling each time
All went well until square 32,
which need just over 4 billion
grains…that’s a large field.
But then square 33 needed 2
large fields….
That’s when they did the math,
and figured the last square
would need more rice than ever
grown in the world to date
…the second half of the
chessboard needs 4 billion times
as much rice as the first half
Exponential progressions can really get out of hand….

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Chessboard
Data, agents, bots,
algorithms
Nearables, wearables,
steerables & other
smart things

Moore’s Law:
1 square about 18 months
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sputnik_asm.jpg a replica of Sputnik, PUBLIC DOMAIN, NASA
you are
here
start at Sputnik (1957):
now 40th square
Computing power sort of doubles
every 18 months or so…say we
started with Sputnik

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_versus_Garry_Kasparov/
http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/
Big Blue
1996: wetware 4, hardware 2
1997: wetware 2½, hardware 3½

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer)
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2014/11/artificial-intelligence-singularity-theory
Watson
2011: Watson (hardware) wins $1m,
beats Jeopardy champion wetwares

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/03/18/facebooks-deepface-software-can-
match-faces-with-97-25-accuracy/ http://sterlingcrispin.com/data-masks.html
2013: DeepFace is watching you
DeepFace 97.25%, wetware 97.53%
Sterling Crispin’s “Data Masks”

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm
2014: computers recognize sentiment;
can identify 21 expressions
including complex or contradictory
emotions “happily disgusted”
“sadly angry” etc
happy disgusted
happily
disgusted

https://www.flickr.com/photos/qubodup/3201597868 by Iwan Gabovitch http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/21emotions.htm
happy disgusted
happily
disgusted
…distinguishes authentic expressions
from false expressions
with an accuracy rate of 85%...
[vs. wetware’s] 55%

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/all/1
Google has built a “a general-learning algorithm that should be applicable
to many other tasks,” says Koray Kavukcuoglu, a Google researcher.
from Deep Mind, bought
by Google 2014 for
estimated $400M
Uses “deep learning and…
deep reinforcement
learning”

Part 1
Part 3
Part 2
Chessboard
Data, agents, bots,
algorithms

https://www.flickr.com/photos/eugeneflores/3518082842/in/photolist-4Ju9bQ-4JpUpp-4JpVkx-4JpUxF-4Ju93W-4Ju9KA-4Ju9m3-7dsumf-4Ju9uf-7doBue-mPxWAV-
5q8apy-Uicdq-4JeAbX-7mJyrF-7mNqqQ-9oBiv5-6sWqrp-6A9jsu-6mT6sJ Eugene Flores

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/ http://www.csc.com/insights/flxwd/78931-big_data_universe_beginning_to_explode
Just when you figured out what a
gigabyte was…
2020: 44 ZB
2013: 4.4 ZB
2007: all information < 1/3 of a zettabyte
learn zettabyte= 1 billion gigabytes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you%27re_a_dog#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg
"Internet dog" by Source. Licensed under Fair use via Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Internet_dog.jpg
Peter Steiner 1993
…the most
reproduced
cartoon from
The New Yorker

These are the droids you’re looking for…
http://gizmodo.com/more-than-half-of-
internet-traffic-is-just-bots-1491356746
2013
half the trades on Wall Street
by “autonomous machines”

http://pronouncemath.blogspot.com/2013/04/muhammad-ibn-musa-al-khwarizmi.html
All that data’s crunched by algorithms…which word
comes from the mangled pronunciation of the name of
a mathematician of 1200+ years ago…who also gave
us the name ‘algebra’

Copyright © by ian fenwick. All rights reservedhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/02/google-could-be-fined-4bn-ec-signals-legal-challenge-margrethe-vestager
Want to find something?
Algorithms rule search
Some say algorithms
fix search…certainly v
few go beyond first
few results

Want to find something?
Same search on
DuckDuckGo shows
fewer YouTube and
greater prominence to
group’s own site

http://www.mondaynote.com/2015/02/01/from-trust-in-news-to-news-profiling/
In bots and algorithms, we trust

Want to influence elections?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/12/research-in-india-suggests-google-search-results-can-influence-an-election/
Undecided voters in India
Manipulated search results to increase
prominence of different candidates
On average shifted votes by 12.5%
Among the group shown pro-Gandhi
rankings, his support increased by 26.5%.

Want make people happy, or sad?
Social Contagion
reduced exposure to
friends' "positive
emotional content",
results in fewer
positive posts
And vice versa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect "Streisand Estate" by Copyright (C) 2002 Kenneth & Gabrielle Adelman, California Coastal Records Project,
www.californiacoastline.org. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons -
Want to hide something?
Before lawsuit: "Image 3850" 6 downloads
In the month after? more than 420,000
The Streisland Effect
Don’t so what Striesland
did…litigation doesn’t hide stuff on
the web…it makes it infamous

http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -
Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway
-4
Want to really hide something?
Like the residents near the
Hollywood sign did…tired of
endless tourist in their canyons…

http://gizmodo.com/why-people-keep-trying-to-erase-the-hollywood-sign-from-1658084644 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Sign "Aerial Hollywood Sign" by Jelson25 -
Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons -
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Aerial_Hollywood_Sign.jpg http://www.dailynews.com/20120315/gps-directions-to-
hollywood-sign-will-change
http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/06/big_tourists_go_away_message_shows_up_below_hollywood_sign.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#touristsgoaway
you are
here
sign is
here
can't physically block access, so virtually,
algorithmically, block access...
Google
suggests
walk
this
way…
Change the algorithm…online
navigation now sends you to a
viewing center, not the sign…

Want to understand someone?
Other’s correlation with
person’s self-assessment
algorithm using
10 FB likes
algorithm using
70 FB likes
algorithm using
300 FB likes
Work Colleague
Friend
Co-habitant
Spouse
Family
Human Average
Computer Average
©2015 by National Academy of Sciences
Wu Youyou et al. PNAS 2015;112:1036-1040 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/4/1036.full

Catch someone ‘in the mood’?
…launching playlists as a proxy
for the activity or mood you're in…
[they have roughly 400,000
playlists related to barbecues
…and 1.5 billion playlists in total]
“
http://adage.com/article/digital/spotify-playlists-gauge-moods-ad-
targeting/298066/?utm_source=digital_email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=adage&ttl=1429805375

http://streamditto.com/
http://ditto.us.com/
…algorithms get visual

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-of-your-tumblr-photos-will-now-be-scanned-for-branded-content
• Ditto's algorithm uses images from
Twitter, Instagram & Tumblr
• trained to recognize brands
• …& indicators of users' feelings
towards them
• builds maps of brand affiliations…
…algorithms get visual

Want to guess someone’s age?
http://www.how-old.net/ http://www.independent.co.uk/life-
style/gadgets-and-tech/news/uploading-pictures-to-find-out-how-
old-you-are-gives-microsoft-the-right-to-post-them-wherever-
they-want-10219428.html
http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/30/8522649/microsoft-how-old-
do-i-look
Not only does Microsoft’s
lgorithm think I’m 84…it also
llegedly can use my pic…

Beacons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQW0PrI6x_M

everything that we
formerly electrified, we
will now cognitize
“

[a] layer of connected intelligence that
augments the actions of individuals,
automates processes, & incorporates digitally
empowered machines into our lives,
increasing our insight into & control over the
tangible world
…fish don’t see the water
http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/
http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-
2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf
digital–physical blur: extending
intelligence to the edge…
“

[a] layer of connected intelligence that
augments the actions of individuals, automates
processes, & incorporates digitally empowered
machines into our lives, increasing our insight into &
control over the tangible world
…fish don’t see the water
http://chiefmartec.com/2013/06/martecs-law-technology-changes-exponentially-organizations-change-logarithmically/
http://share.cisco.com/internet-of-things.html
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
http://www.accenture.com/microsite/it-technology-trends-
2014/Documents/TechVision/Downloads/Accenture_Technology_Vision_2014.pdf
digital–physical blur: extending intelligence to the
edge…
“
“

Ownership?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0&pagewanted=all
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/

…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a
natural consequence of…computerization of
devices around us…“
David Clark, a senior research
scientist at MIT
Devices…have their
own patterns of communication, their own
‘social networks,’ which they use to share
& aggregate information, & undertake
automatic control & activation.
…humans will be in a world in which
decisions are being made by an active set
of cooperating devices.
Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/

Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Digital Life in 2025” http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/03/11/digital-life-in-2025/
…machine-to-machine, or M2M, is a
natural consequence of the increasing
computerization of all the devices around us…
Devices will…have their own patterns of
communication, their own ‘social networks,’
which they use to share & aggregate
information, & undertake automatic control &
activation.
…humans will be in a world in which decisions
are being made by an active set of
cooperating devices.
“
David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT

http://www.contagious.com/blogs/news-and-views/17888484-the-future-of-advertising-is-software
xtreme segmentation

Vigo knows you’re drowsy before
you do“http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/17/vigo/ http://lechal.com/ http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/25/vibrating-smartshoes-google-maps-lechal

The more people who use an AI,
the smarter it gets.
…our AI future is likely to be ruled by an
oligarchy of two or three large, general
purpose cloud-based commercial
intelligences
The smarter it
gets, the more people use it.
The more people that use it, the
smarter it gets

https://www.flickr.com/photos/tambako/494144260 Tiger eating in the snow by Tambako The Jaguar
Digital is disruptive …it’s a tiger
There was a young lady of Riga,
Who smiled as she rode on the tiger;
They returned from their ride
With the lady inside,
and the smile on the face of the tiger

The Second Half of the Chessboard...

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The Second Half of the Chessboard...