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Informa Telecoms & Media
2012 Research Agenda
Your global research partner




           www.informatandm.com
Make better business
decisions
Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading
provider of research, events and training to the
global telecoms and media industry.
Every year, 10,000 companies use our services to
evaluate market opportunities, benchmark their
competitors and grow their businesses.
We are part of Informa PLC, the leading provider
of business information and services with over
8,000 employees in 150 offices worldwide.



ReseARch And consulTIng                            confeRences And exhIbITIons                           TRAInIng

Our research business delivers independent         Our 100+ annual events and exhibitions are            The Telecoms Academy team delivers a public
strategic insight, global market data and          critical in driving the industry’s agenda. We bring   portfolio of over 50 training programmes every
primary research. We work in partnership with      together high-calibre decision-makers from the        year. These include intensive five-day Telecoms
our clients to inform their decision-making with   mobile, fixed, alternative, wholesale, MVNO,          Mini MBA and specialist next generation
actionable advice and support.                     broadband and satellite operator communities.         technology courses.

Key services include:                              Key events include:
Welcome To our 2012
     Research Agenda
     At Informa Telecoms & Media we are never
     short of ideas for new topics and themes to
     research and analyze.


     As analysts we spend our lives immersed in the telecoms and media
     industries, absorbing new information, speaking to key decision-makers
     and making connections between trends and developments across different
     countries and regions.

     Producing a compelling research agenda is challenging because of the sheer
     breadth and diversity of the sectors that we cover. We started putting our ideas
     together for 2012 in the early summer and then condensing them into four
     key themes which, we believe, will drive this industry forward over the next 12
     months. Details of our 2012 research themes start on page 12.

     Our four key themes for 2012 are;
     · The transformed telco
     · Reengineering the broadband business model
     · Services, ecosystems and connected devices
     · Seizing new revenue opportunities

     The four themes have six mini themes, each of which will be explored in some
     detail. They capture the big questions that the industry is now asking itself. How
     relevant are operators in the new services ecosystem? Can operators protect
     (and grow!) profit margins by cost-cutting alone? Should TV companies partner
     with Internet firms? Is operator focus shifting from consumer to business and
     enterprise markets (we think it is)? And how quickly should operators roll out
     next generation networks?

     Most important of all, our analysts' opinons are always based on a solid
     foundation of market data and forecasts.

     We look forward to working with you over the next year as we explore these
     themes. And, as ever, we welcome your own thoughts and feedback.




                                 Mark Newman
                                 Chief Research Officer
                                 mark.newman@informa.com




03
benefit from our
expertise
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business           We cAn help you…
has been the leading provider of strategic
insight, key market data and forecasts for more        Plan your strategic direction:
                                                       – Prioritize growth opportunities
than 25 years.                                         – Size market supply and demand
                                                       – Benchmark your performance
We have more than 60 analysts in 10 research
offices across 5 continents helping our clients        Build competitor and customer intelligence:
make better decisions. They are accessible,            – Identify business drivers
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Our clients rely on us to gather competitor            – Justify your business cases
and customer intelligence, steer product               – Formulate a pricing strategy
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Because our analysts spend more of their time
engaging with our clients at events, briefings
and through our support service, we are always         Why choose us?
close to your business issues.


                                                       1
                                                                 We provide a unique mix of in-market,
                                                                 sector and forecasting expertise to
                                                                 ensure local insight and a definitive
                                                                 view. We don’t sit on the fence.




                                                       2
                                                                 Our analysts benefit from exclusive
                                                                 access to a broad community of
                                                                 senior-level decision makers. We don’t
                                                                 lock them in ivory towers.




                                                       3
                                                                 We collect and interpret more data
                                                                 across more markets than anyone else.
                                                                 We don’t outsource data collection.




                                                  04
our services


InTellIgence cenTRe                               WoRld bRoAdbAnd InfoRMATIon                      consulTIng And cusToMIZed
                                                  seRvIce                                          ReseARch

                                                                                                   We offer a complete range of customized
                                                                                                   research and consultancy services. All of our
                                                                                                   consulting engagements benefit from our core
                                                                                                   market data and forecasting expertise and
                                                                                                   access to our C-level industry communities.

                                                                                                   Find out more www.informatandm.com
                                                                                                   /customised-research
Intelligence Centre is the central online
source of all of our advisory analysis, primary   WBIS is the complete broadband and multi-
research, market data and forecasts. The          channel TV resource featuring broadband,
service includes a number of powerful search,     fixed-line telephony and multichannel TV
alerting and report tools as well as direct       subscriber numbers from 2000 to 2011 and         ouR ReseARch Includes
access to our analysts.                           forecasts to 2016.
                                                                                                   Market data and 5-year forecasts
Find out more www.informatandm.com/ic             Find out more www.informatandm.com/wbis          Five-year historical and forecast metrics including
                                                                                                   subscription, network and device numbers and
                                                                                                   key financial and operational indicators. We
                                                                                                   have a centralized forecasting team working
                                                                                                   collaboratively with our analysts to ensure
WoRld cellulAR InfoRMATIon seRvIce                neTWoRk econoMIcs Tool                           consistent results.

                                                                                                   Analysis and case studies
                                                                                                   In-depth views on emerging trends and in-market
                                                                                                   case studies enable you to track operator strategy.

                                                                                                   Country and company profiles
                                                                                                   Regular, analytical snapshots of market dynamics
                                                                                                   and company initiatives, delivered in PowerPoint.

                                                                                                   Conference presentations
WCIS remains the cellular world’s leading         NET is a new, easy to use online service which   A complete archive of speaker presentations from
source of accurate, robust data and 5-year        enables equipment vendors and operators          our 100+ annual conferences provides invaluable
forecasts. The service tracks global mobile       to model the capital and operational cost of     competitor and customer insight.
subscriptions, KPIs, financial and operational    deploying and upgrading wireless broadband
indicators in real time and includes direct       networks and understand ROI.                     Surveys
access to our analysts.                                                                            The full results and detailed analysis of surveys
                                                  Find out more www.informatandm.com/net           designed to address industry perceptions across
Find out more www.informatandm.com/wcis                                                            key topics. Respondents are drawn from our
                                                                                                   community of senior executives.




                                                                        05
Talk directly To our
Analysts
We believe that providing direct access to our
analysts is essential in ensuring our research is
both relevant and actionable.
All of our services include direct analyst access
enabling you to connect with our team via
e-mail, telephone, webinars and face-to-face
briefings. Analyst access can be used to clarify
our findings, understand the background to
developments or to further explore our views
and methodologies.


WhAT ARe you AskIng us?                                                                         AnAlysT Access exAMples

Analyst Access queries by topic over the last
year:

                                                                                                Client:                                                   Finally, Sprint is expected to maintain its CDMA
                                                                                                I am looking at Informa’s latest LTE spectrum             network in the 1900 band for the near future,
                                                                                                forecasts – could you please provide me some              hence the later date expected for that band.
                                                                                                insight into the methodology used to develop the
                                                                                                launch dates for Sprint's LTE networks in the US?         It is also worth noting, Sprint recently announced
                                                                                                                                                          plans to work with LightSquared on LTE in the
                                                                                                Analyst Access:                                           L-band (1600 band).
                                                                                                As a part of its Network Vision plan, Sprint plans to
                                                                                                turn down iDEN, which operates in the 800 band,           Client:
                                                                                                beginning in 2013. It is Informa’s belief that it is at   Do you have any comment on how the IDEOS
                                                                                                this time that that band will be transitioned to LTE.     smartphone has been received in Kenya?

                                                                                                In addition, at the time the forecast was                 Analyst Access:
                                                                                                prepared, it was our belief that Sprint would             I was in Nairobi when the IDEOS smartphone was
                                                                                                work with Clearwire to provide LTE in the 2500            launched in the market by Safaricom. From my
 KPIs / financials ................ 24%       Market sizing ...................... 9%         band, and that it would happen relatively                 conversations with distributors, I sense that the
 Mobile / fixed access                        Mobile broadband ........... 5%                                                                           market response in terms of sales has been quite
  networks ............................ 13%
                                                                                                quickly. Last week, Clearwire made an
                                               MVNOs .................................. 3%
 Connected home .............. 5%                                                              announcement that it will deploy LTE in the 2500          impressive, although no figures have yet been
                                               Pricing / tariffs .................... 5%
 Mobile content and                           Smartphones / operating
                                                                                                band in some of its existing markets without              released. The price of the device is low compared
  applications ...................... 10%       systems ................................. 7%    working with Sprint. Clearwire said it may work           to other smart phones in the market (it retails
 Operational strategies .... 4%               Other ................................... 11%
 Device market and
                                                                                                with Sprint and its Network Vision plan to build          at US$100). The device’s most popular features
  segmentation ..................... 4%                                                         new markets in the future.                                appear to be its high resolution touch screen,
                                                                                                                                                          the 3.2 Megapixel camera and the presence of
                                                                                                                                                          multiple applications.




                                                                                                                          06
consulting and customized
Research
Our consulting expertise is founded on our
deep industry engagement and delivered by
our experienced network of analysts.
Our approach to your business issues and
objectives is practical and pragmatic. All of
our consulting engagements benefit from our
core market data and forecasting expertise and
access to our C-level industry communities.




cAse sTudIes                                                                                               cusToMIsed soluTIons Include:

Market Survey                                         White Paper                                          – Benchmark reports
Client:                                               Client:                                              – Surveys
Value-added solutions provider for mobile             Tier 1 handset vendor                                – Webinars
operators.                                            Objective:                                           – White papers
Objective:                                            To assess the effect of different smartphone         – Country reports
To transform its service proposition and validate     operating systems on current mobile                  – Company reports
views of the Asia Pacific market.                     broadband networks and estimate the energy           – Forecasts
                                                      requirements that these create on the network.       – Go-to-market reports
                              Solution:                                                                    – Case studies
                              “Using our network                                  Solution:                – Event facilitation
                              of research contacts                                “Coupling our in-house   – Speaking engagements
                              we tested the view of                               research and data with   – Workshops
                              the APAC market by                                  a bespoke analytical
                              conducting a series                                 model and wide
Charles Moon
Principal Analyst             of in-depth strategic                               network of contacts,
                                                      Nicholas Jotischky
                              interviews and          Principal Analyst           we were able to
running a survey. This resulted in the publication                                implement a modeling
of a White Paper taking the client’s message to a     tool. The result was a White Paper used by the
regional audience and was followed up by a series     client to promote its smartphone ecosystem and
of strategic briefings to C-level service provider    platform to mobile operators, thereby illustrating
audiences in the region.”                             energy savings that will become important to its
                                                      marketing efforts.”




                                                                             07
global Reach

We believe that the diversity of global
telecoms markets requires a distinctive
regional view on localised trends, events and
consumer patterns.
We achieve this by providing in-depth country
perspectives. Over the last six months our
analysts in 12 countries have produced 65
detailed country profiles.



noRTh AMeRIcA                         lATIn AMeRIcA                               WesTeRn euRope                          eAsTeRn euRope




Mike Roberts                          Daniele Tricarico                           Dario Talmesio                          Stephen Wilson
Principal Analyst                     Senior Analyst                              Principal Analyst                       Senior Analyst

“In the midst of market               “A key challenge for mobile                 “Europe’s operators must implement      “Eastern European broadband and
consolidation, an understandable      operators in Latin America is how to        competitive strategies in the attempt   voice markets tend to be extremely
outcome of the mobile broadband       deliver revenue-generating mobile           to counteract disintermediation.        competitive, and therefore bundling
boom, what the US mobile industry     content to the entire customer              If successful, operators will           with multichannel TV is becoming
really needs is a hefty dose of       base. Operators must stop equating          embrace openness and morph into         an essential strategy for operators
spectrum by 2015. Without this, how   content to smartphones, and                 something similar to an OTT player.”    trying to increase subscriber loyalty.
will operators succeed in meeting     should address the entire prepaid                                                   With average TV-viewing times high
the public’s proven demand for        segment including basic and low-                                                    in the region, multichannel TV is a
Internet and other applications       feature devices.”                                                                   key part of the bundle and even has
running on smartphones, tablets                                                                                           potential as a stand-alone product.”
and other devices?”




office locations worldwide: San Francisco – USA | Chicago – USA | Boston – USA | Sao Paolo – Brazil | London – UK




                                                                             08
AfRIcA                                   MIddle eAsT                               noRTh AsIA                           AsIA pAcIfIc




     Thecla Mbongue                           Matthew Reed                              Charice Wang                         Vanessa Jalleh
     Senior Analyst                           Senior Analyst                            Senior Analyst                       Research Analyst

     “Significant lessons can be learned      “The growth prospects offered by          “North Asia continues to drive the   “With organic growth slowing in
     from studying the practices of mobile    the Middle East remain attractive,        region in terms of subscribers and   many markets around Southeast
     operators in Africa. Be it through the   but the region is complex and             revenues, with innovation coming     Asia, operators are focusing
     use of dynamic tariffs, the spread       varied and local understanding            from massive Internet players,       more on loyalty to maintain
     of mobile-money services or the          is necessary in order to take best        particularly in the markets of       their competitive edge; customer
     creation of loyalty schemes, many of     advantage of its opportunities.           Japan, Korea, and China. Pressure    analytic and business intelligence
     Africa’s service providers recognize     Stronger focus will be placed             from over the top players in these   is therefore becoming a key enabler
     the importance of a well-segmented       on mobile broadband and the               markets are being addressed          in gaining market share, as carriers
     and relevant customer experience.”       provision of converged services           differently in each country,         compete in the brave new world of
                                              as operators look to become               whether due to legacy issues         maturing markets.”
                                              more relevant in meeting the              (Japan), vendor influence (Korea),
                                              evolving needs of consumers and           or government policy (China);
                                              enterprises alike.”                       we look at how mobile carriers in
                                                                                        each are positioning themselves
                                                                                        for the long term to address
                                                                                        common challenges in their unique
                                                                                        operating environments.”




| Johannesburg – South Africa | Dubai – UAE | Singapore | Beijing – China | Hyderabad – India | Brisbane – Australia




                                                                                   09
2012 ReseARch AgendA




The transformed telco
The TRAnsfoRMed Telco




C   hanges in technology, usage trends
    and the competitive landscape are
forcing telecoms operators to evolve a
business model that has served them
well for many decades.

Without such an evolution, operators will lose          in a single country, and on a regional or global      looking to develop a more sophisticated retail
ground – and business – to the so-called over-          basis to meet the requirements of global enter-       approach as an integral part of their customer
the-top players. And they will fail to capture new      prises or partners such as consumer electronics       experience strategy. But unless they find a way
revenue opportunities in mobile broadband,              manufacturers.                                        of expanding into the new connected device
M2M and connected verticals.                                Investment in next-generation fixed and           market and become experts in mobile comput-
   With the slowdown in new connections,                wireless networks is challenging for any opera-       ing, they risk becoming dumb shops and losing
and operators’ limited success in selling ser-          tor whose revenues are stagnating in real terms.      market share to consumer electronics shops that
vices to their customers, efficiency and cost           Operators are reluctant to increase their capex-to-   are accustomed to tight profit margins and find-
control have become the key modus operandi              sales ratios and are therefore taking a longer-term   ing the right balance between online and offline
for many telcos.                                        approach to rolling out new technologies such as      retailing.
   The lean telco is a thread that runs through         LTE than was the case with 3G. New approaches
most of the issues and strategies surrounding           to extending the life and improving the speeds
the operator business. With flat – and in some          delivered by copper and 3.5G networks are also
cases stagnating – revenues in mature markets,          combining to make the case for investing in new
operators are under pressure to cut opex levels.        network technologies more challenging.                Operators are looking to develop a
Managed services and outsourcing strategies are             With the slowdown in the growth of new con-       more sophisticated retail approach
coming to the fore with operators more open             nections, operators are starting to place a greater   as an integral part of their customer
than ever to relinquishing control of functions         emphasis on strategies to retain existing custom-     experience strategy.
that have traditionally been seen as core to their      ers than attracting new ones. Customer experi-
business. Network sharing is gaining momen-             ence has evolved from a customer-care approach
tum, particularly as operators seek to justify          to an important part of an operator’s corporate           With over-the-top (Internet) players now
investment in LTE.                                      strategy to improve customer loyalty. The opera-      playing a dominant role in the provision of new
                                                        tor needs to be able to offer a good experience       services for the consumer market, operators are
                                                        throughout its touch points with customers, from      starting to review their role in the value chain
                                                        the operator store, through the service experience    and the balance between serving the consumer
                                                        to the call center. Customer information is now       and business segments. This change in approach
Operators are reluctant to increase                     a means to differentiation as part of the customer    is seeing the operator become more of an enabler
their capex-to-sales ratios and                         experience.                                           than a provider of new services and, in many
are therefore taking a longer-                              Customer Experience Management (CEM)              cases, involves third-party service providers tran-
term approach to rolling out new                        demands a holistic and unified approach from          sitioning into customers of the operator.
technologies such as LTE.                               the operator’s different areas. A central customer        One of the areas where operators believe that
                                                        database is required in order to provide consis-      they still have a strong role to play is in the use
                                                        tency across all different channels and the infor-    of the SIM card as a secure element in the provi-
    Operators are also coming to recognize that         mation needed to deal with multiple challenges        sion and sale of new services. Many of the part-
they may need to partner with each other both to        throughout a customer’s lifetime. Operators           nerships involving new services relate to mobile
reduce costs and to develop platforms and capa-         need to realize that customer experience plays a      payments and transactions. In the case of NFC,
bilities that allow them to roll out new services.      key role in customer loyalty and consequently in      operators want the SIM card to become the
These operator-to-operator partnerships can be          their profitability.                                  default method for securing applications. 
built both on a national level to enable third              For many customers, the operator shop is
parties to deliver their services to all mobile users   the most important touch point. Operators are




                                                                                11
2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs




Next-generation access                                         Customer experience                                           Lean telco models

                              “Let’s face facts: few                                       “An outstanding                                                 “If you would be
                             operators’ superfast                                          customer experience                                             wealthy, think of saving
                             broadband strategies                                          should be embedded in                                           as well as getting.
                             have gone to plan.                                            all operator strategies,                                        Operating in a world
                             Take-up has been slow,                                        from marketing and                                              of intense competition,
                             yet next-generation                                           advertising to network                                          regulatory intervention
Rob Gallagher                                                  Júlio Püschel                                                 Thomas Wehmeier
Principal Analyst            access (NGA) networks             Senior Analyst              and smartphones.                  Principal Analyst             and macroeconomic
                             haven’t got any                                               Operators should                                                uncertainty means
cheaper to build. Learning from success stories                focus on customer profitability by analyzing the              telcos are having to fight harder than ever to
isn’t easy either. The huge cost and complexity                potential customer life-time value across customer            stabilize top-line revenues. Coupled with an
of rolling out NGA has magnified differences                   segments. The different demands will dictate the              investor climate exerting relentless pressure to
between countries and operators, making the                    importance of various factors, affecting everything           maintain or grow operating margins, the need to
broadband market more fragmented than ever.”                   from subsidy rates to a diversity of bundled offers.”         evolve into a ruthlessly efficient, lean business has
                                                                                                                             never been greater for today’s telco.

                                                                                                                             We believe, that some telcos are now achieving
                                                                                                                             operational excellence and our globally-
                                                                                                                             sourced case studies and analysis will identify
                                                                                                                             companies that have done this successfully and,
                                                                                                                             more importantly, outline how and why some
                                                                                                                             telcos have been able to drive costs out of their
                                                                                                                             businesses.”




                                                                                                                             >   Operator profiles enable you to track the performance
                                                                                                                                 of the 40 largest telcos globally. Delivered in PowerPoint
                                                                                                                                 they detail operational and financial performance,
                                                                                                                                 local market conditions, market share, regulatory

>   In 2012, our broadband and TV team will produce over
    400 analysis pieces covering topics including next-        >   Case studies provide real-life examples of service-
                                                                   provider strategies and best practice. Every case study
                                                                                                                                 developments, key operational initiatives and product
                                                                                                                                 and pricing updates.
    generation access, IPTV and the connected home. Our            includes a SWOT analysis and directional comment
    analysis is designed to support your decision making and       exploring key lessons learnt and likely development.
    offer key points for action.




                                                                                            12
The TRAnsfoRMed Telco




Retail                                                             Operator partnerships                                     SIM, identity and security

                              “As consumers are                                                  “Operators are coming                                   “The evolution of the
                              changing their                                                     to see the benefits                                     SIM is becoming an
                              shopping behavior,                                                 of partnering with                                      important issue for
                              telecom operators will                                             each other to create                                    mobile operators as
                              follow them. Digital                                               national, regional and                                  they strive to retain
                              commerce, social-                                                  global alliances. Within                                an important role in
Dario Talmesio                                                     Mark Newman                                               Jamie Moss
Principal Analyst             media networks,                      Chief Research Officer        national markets, a         Senior Analyst              the provision of new
                              group-buying sites                                                 number of operators                                     services and connected
and cross-channel sales will be used by operators                  have joined forces on NFC to expand the potential         devices. The development of embedded SIMs and
intending to enhance customer experience across                    market for those companies and organizations              soft SIMs gives OEMs and MVNOs greater freedom
all channels. Meanwhile, operators will start                      that are interested in rolling out mobile payment         to bring their products to market and has the
retailing and billing for digital goods and services               services. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom             potential to ultimately strengthen or, alternatively,
and sell new types of connected devices.                           are partnering in a number of different areas to          to marginalize the operator.
                                                                   expand their footprints, share development costs
We will be monitoring the development of                           and create economies of scale. And when it comes          Informa Telecoms & Media is monitoring the
multichannel retail strategies, the use of social                  to new opportunities in M2M and connected                 development of advanced SIM technology to
media as a sales and CRM channel in operator                       devices, global approaches are essential if               identify any issues with security and to map
owned and independent retail channels through                      operators are to forge alliances with consumer            the growth of the B2B2C services market for
case studies and analysis, showcasing the most                     electronics firms and enterprises who themselves          connectivity. We also seek to explore the long-
effective ways of getting customers to shop and                    have a global presence and strategy.                      term implications of this business model on
pay for digital and telecom services.”                                                                                       wireless carriers, the evolution of their role and any
                                                                   Over the next year, we will compare the                   changes in their relationship with the rest of the
                                                                   approaches of different operator groups and               value chain.”
                                                                   identify where the best opportunities for alliances
                                                                   exist. We will also identify the risks for operators
                                                                   that fail to partner and provide advice and
                                                                   recommendations for how best to exploit global
                                                                   opportunities without building global footprints.”




                                                                                                                             >   In 2012, our content and applications team will cover

>
                                                                                                                                 topics including mobile content and service value chains
    We have been delivering successful consulting projects
                                                                                                                                 and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact
    for over 15 years. Our approach to your objectives is
                                                                                                                                 of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your
    practical and pragmatic; our in-market teams include
    specialists across the value chain, helping us deliver valid
    results quickly.                                               >   Analyst comments provide a quick, strategic analyst
                                                                       view on trends and developments enabling you to
                                                                                                                                 decision-making and offer points for action.

                                                                       understand, react and respond to market events.




                                                                                               13
2012 ReseARch AgendA




Re-engineering the broadband
business model
Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model




O   perators have long been concerned
    about managing the growth of
Internet traffic on their fixed networks.



But, more recently, it has been the burgeoning               It is the growth of video usage and applica-    Potential options for operators to counter Internet
                                                                                                             companies’ traffic growth and service strategies
usage of Internet services (and especially video)       tions that is driving data traffic growth. Video
over mobile networks delivered to smartphones           can account for more than two-thirds of the total
and laptops that has forced them to re-evaluate         data traffic handled by an operator. As such,        1  Make Internet companies
                                                                                                                pay for sending traffic
                                                                                                             over their networks
                                                                                                                                             6   Introduce tiered pricing
                                                                                                                                                 and move to a commercial
                                                                                                                                             model where there is a
their pricing and service strategies.                   operators are starting to develop specific strate-                                   direct correlation between
   While operators still harbor hopes of per-
suading Internet companies to contribute to
                                                        gies for managing and optimizing video traffic.
                                                        During 2011, operators have started active dis-
                                                                                                             2   Compete with the services
                                                                                                                 that Internet companies
                                                                                                             offer to their end users
                                                                                                                                             the bandwidth that the end
                                                                                                                                             users consume and what they
                                                                                                                                             pay. This would effectively
                                                                                                                                             mean increasing the price of
the cost of carrying high-bandwidth traffic, their      cussions with players such as Google looking
most realistic hope of ensuring that broadband          at potential approaches for reducing global and      3   Develop a platform
                                                                                                                 strategy of their own
                                                                                                                                             broadband access to heavier
                                                                                                                                             users

remains a profitable business involves explor-          regional traffic flows. Many of these discussions
ing and implementing a whole range of differ-           have involved assessing the potential of using       4   Sell network technologies
                                                                                                                 and solutions to Internet
                                                                                                             companies to help reduce the
                                                                                                                                             7   Stick with their current
                                                                                                                                                 strategy of optimzing the
                                                                                                                                             networks, increasing capacity
ent approaches for reducing the costs of carry-         CDNs and phasing out peering and transit agree-      traffic burden                  in the backhaul (fiber and DSL)
                                                                                                                                             and access (LTE) networks
ing traffic and developing a more sophisticated         ments which oblige operators to carry traffic
approach towards pricing broadband access.              from North America into Europe and Asia for          5   Deprioritize Internet
                                                                                                                 companies' traffic or
                                                                                                             make certain traffic types
                                                                                                                                             and introducing generous
                                                                                                                                             tiered pricing plans.

                                                        minimal financial recompense.                        are available only over Wi-Fi
                                                                                                             networks
                                                             Flat-rate, “all-you-can-eat” price plans have
                                                        become synonymous with the Internet and yet
                                                        in 2011 most mobile operators started to move
Tiered pricing should be seen as the                    away from such an approach. Tiered pricing is
first phase of a pricing revolution                     now commonplace and most operators seem to
which will see the emergence of a                       have been able to move to this new model with
huge array of different price plans.                    little or no backlash from customers.
                                                             Tiered pricing should be seen as the first
                                                        phase of a pricing revolution which will see the
    Most operators are now using a number of            emergence of a huge array of different price plans
different techniques to understand and optimize         based on location, time of day, type of applica-     customers single data plans for multiple devices.
the different types of traffic on their networks.       tion and type of device. The term yield manage-          If operators are to adopt more dynamic pric-
At the same time, there is growing interest in          ment which has been embraced, for example, by        ing approaches they will need support systems
using femtocells and Wi-Fi to offload data traffic.     the airline industry to maximize revenues from       that enable such functionality. There is a growing
Rather than simply buying Wi-Fi capacity from           each flight, is now being applied to broadband       need for charging – rather than billing – capabili-
third-party service providers, operators are now        access. As operators explore new pricing para-       ties that allow operators and apps developers to
looking to build out their own Wi-Fi networks           digms, regulators will carefully monitor whether     take innovative, flexible approaches towards the
and offering access to them to both their fixed         they have implications in terms of net neutrality,   pricing of different services, Legacy billing systems
and mobile broadband customers.                         a concept designed to protect freedom and open-      struggle to offer this functionality and further
    Devices have an important role to play too.         ness on the Internet.                                investment is needed in areas such as improved
Operators are starting to assess the strain that dif-        Operators will also experiment with different   data storage, mining and retrieval systems, analyti-
ferent smartphone and operating systems place           approaches for bundling broadband access across      cal software for customer segmentation and more
on their networks. This will ultimately have an         different devices and networks. Rather than          efficient signaling management in the access and
impact on decisions about which devices to sup-         attaching price plans to each device, operators      core networks before operators can be confident
port and subsidize.                                     now believe that there is merit in offering their    about investing in new charging systems. 




                                                                               15
2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs




Wi-Fi                                                      Yield management                                               OSS/BSS transformation

                             “Wi-Fi is by some                                         “Operators have found                                         “Any attempt to
                             distance the most                                         out the hard way that                                         re-engineer the
                             important wireless                                        mobile broadband can                                          broadband business
                             technology in the                                         be unprofitable. In their                                     model presupposes
                             world based on volume                                     initial monetization                                          an intelligent,
                             of data carried. The                                      efforts, mobile                                               content-agnostic
Mike Roberts                                               Dimitris Mavrakis                                              Peter Dykes
Principal Analyst            second wave of Wi-Fi          Principal Analyst           operators aggressively             Senior Analyst             support infrastructure.
                             has well and truly                                        marketed USB modems                                           Existing OSS/BSS
arrived and is forcing an entire ecosystem to              but soon found out that smartphones can make                   was never designed to deliver such functionality
rethink strategies for turning end-user demand for         a significantly more profitable business case. Yield           and therefore transformation is vital to meet the
Wi-Fi into tangible return.                                management is the exercise of efficiently utilizing            challenges created by the provision of next-
                                                           mobile broadband spectrum in order to generate                 generation, broadband data services.
We continue our ongoing research efforts into              maximum revenues and profits.
Wi-Fi with a clear focus on qualifying its growth                                                                         We will be studying the development of
worldwide. We will track deployment, uptake and            We will be constantly looking into mobile                      smarter networks through case studies and
usage of Wi-Fi both inside and outside the home            broadband operator business cases and will also                analysis, highlighting the most effective ways of
and will pay special attention to the diverse array of     be modeling the most interesting networks with                 monetizing data services by exploiting network
emerging business models that are underpinning             our Network Economics Tool (NET).”                             and business intelligence.”
widespread investment into the technology.”




>   Webinars offer a popular way to engage with our
    lead analysts and quickly access the findings of our
    research streams. In 2012, we will host more than 40
    webinar sessions.




                                                           >   Network Economics Tool (NET) is an easy to use online
                                                               tool which enables equipment vendors and operators to
                                                               model the capital and operational cost of deploying and
                                                               upgrading wireless broadband networks and understand
                                                               ROI. The tool allows operators to independently develop,   >   Case studies feature a qualitative assessment of
                                                                                                                              strategy, value chain and market positioning in addition
                                                               test and refine a business case for any target market in       to a quantitative evaluation of success, including
                                                               real time using a combination of market data, technical        competitor benchmarking.
                                                               parameters and economic inputs.




                                                                                       16
Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model




Managing and monetizing video                                  Pricing and bundling                                          Impact of different devices and platforms

                             “Video is the killer                                         “Data pricing has                                             “So far, user experience
                             app for connected                                            come to occupy center                                         and user demand have
                             devices, with                                                stage in an operator’s                                        been the main factors
                             consumers increasingly                                       agenda. The emerging                                          in operators’ choice
                             expecting multiscreen,                                       role data plays in the                                        of smartphone OS
                             on-demand, high-                                             revenue-generating                                            platforms. However,
Nick Thomas                                                    Panos Loukos                                                  Malik Saadi
Principal Analyst            quality video content.            Senior Analyst             process has prompted               Principal Analyst          over time, the gap in
                             But key questions have                                       the appearance of new                                         the user experience
yet to be answered: who will pay for the content               forms of data plan structures and billing patterns.           offered by various competing platforms will
and the delivery, will it come from managed or                                                                               narrow. At the same time, the popularity of
over-the-top providers, and how will vendors                   We will track the mobile data pricing strategies of           smartphones is creating a traffic tsunami which is
throughout the value chain make money?”                        mobile operators in 20 markets in five continents.            forcing operators to look more closely at how their
                                                               We will then use service profiling and in-depth               networks are used. Spectrum efficiency, including
                                                               analysis to identify the most important trends that           both data and signalling optimization, are
                                                               will shape the data plan paradigm in 2012.”                   increasingly becoming key criteria in prioritizing
                                                                                                                             platforms.

                                                                                                                             Informa Telecoms & Media is currently conducting
                                                                                                                             an in-depth study into the spectrum efficiency of
                                                                                                                             different platforms. Preliminary results indicate
                                                                                                                             that there are big disparities in the way different
                                                                                                                             OS ecosystems consume network bandwidth.
                                                                                                                             While some OSs are highly optimized to carry
                                                                                                                             messaging or browsing traffic others are more
>   Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and
    network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for                                                                  efficient when dealing with video streaming.”
    their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are
    produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast
    team and 60 country and topic-facing analysts.             >   Our market data offering is the most comprehensive
                                                                   set of country and operator metrics available including
                                                                   subscriptions, market share and penetration and an
                                                                   advanced set of financial and operational KPIs across
                                                                   mobile, fixed-line and multichannel TV markets.




                                                                                                                             >   Our integrated forecasting approach ensures our robust
                                                                                                                                 methodologies and models are informed by deep
                                                                                                                                 qualitative understanding.




                                                                                            17
2012 ReseARch AgendA




Services, ecosystems and
connected devices
seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces




C   onsumers have developed a taste
    for accessing their favorite services
and applications on different small and
large-screen devices.


In turn, the developers of the platforms that sup-                           market paradigm. Apple and Google are the            a lower-end device for prepaid markets?
port these services, the device manufacturers and                            undisputed champions of the ecosystem.                   Technology companies and service provid-
the content owners, have taken the opportunity                               Apple’s success in its hardware business – and       ers are exploring options beyond platforms for
to extend their influence and presence across                                in particular the iPhone – owes much to its          differentiating their products and services. With
these different devices and networks.                                        iTunes and applications store services built on      the dominance of the Android and iOS on smart
    Device manufacturers have developed their                                Apple’s own operating system. Google’s strat-        devices, differentiation in the user interface may
own service and application strategies; online                               egy for taking its services (and revenues) beyond    be a better alternative than an in-house OS.
players have moved into the devices space,                                   the PC is founded on the Android operating           This is costly and there is no guarantee of being
investing in either the software (platform) busi-                            system, which is now the market-leading plat-        able to create a product that can compete with
ness or in hardware itself; content owners have                              form for smartphones, and on YouTube. There          the market leaders. But the key to developing a
adopted multiscreen strategies, often with little                            is continual speculation over whether these two      popular and successful UI – particularly across
or no clarity about the viability of new busi-                               players will seek to plug the gaps in their port-    platforms and devices – is not always obvious.
ness models. And TV companies are developing                                 folios. Should Apple start manufacturing its
home gateways as their anchors to connected                                  own televisions? Google indirectly entered the
device superiority.                                                          hardware business in August this year with its
                                                                             acquisition of Motorola’s handsets and set-top-
                                                                             box activities, but what it will do with its new     Smartphones will become the
Impact of common/open standards on the connected-                            assets remains to be seen.                           dominant provider of Internet
device landscape                                                                 No other companies come close to matching        connectivity to hundreds of millions
                                                                             Apple or Google’s dominance of ecosystems.           of people
                                        0-12 months ....... 6%
                                                                             Nokia and Microsoft, arguably the two biggest
                                        1-2 years ............. 38%
                                                                             victims of the success of Apple and Google, are
                                        3-5 years ............. 41%
                                                                             now joining forces in the development of mobile          Aggregators are another group of companies
                                        6-10 years ............ 6%
                                                                             software and services. A whole host of other         facing an uncertain future as online platform and
                                        10+ years ............. 3%          companies from the traditional telecoms, TV,         service providers become aggregators in their
                                        Never happen .... 7%                consumer electronics and mobile phone busi-          own right.
                                                                             nesses are trying to figure out their current and        Ecosystems hold most relevance today to
                                                                             future roles in different ecosystems. The “too-      developed markets characterized by multi-de-
Exact question wording was: When will it become common practice              big-to-fail?” question is one that constantly nags   vice ownership and high smartphone penetra-
for content providers to offer content directly to consumers via connected
devices and bypass traditional service providers and operators?              at these, and other, contenders. No company          tion. But smartphone prices are falling rapidly
                                                                             should be tempted to create its own ecosystem        and, within the next two years, will be within
                                                                             if its core product, its cash-cow, is not fit for    reach of the mass market in the developing
                                                                             purpose.                                             world. Smartphones will become the dominant
   In this brave new world, the customer is king                                 The success of Apple and Google is changing      (in many cases, only) provider of Internet con-
and traditional content providers, TV companies                              the outlook and business models for the sectors      nectivity to hundreds of millions of people. In
and device manufacturers are under siege from                                in which they are active. Google dominates the       doing so, they will open up huge opportunities
global players that started life on the Internet and                         online advertising business. Will it gain a simi-    for local and global content creators and appli-
who threaten their very existence.                                           lar stranglehold on mobile and TV advertising?       cations developers. 
   Creating a strong ecosystem has become                                    Apple’s dominance today is confined to the high-
an essential ingredient for success in this new                              end smartphone business but what if it launches




                                                                                                    19
2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs




Future ecosystems                                              Future advertising                                          The evolving aggregator landscape

                            “Who will win in a                                            “The mobile                                                 “Aggregators have
                            multiscreen world?”                                           advertising ecosystem                                       always played key roles
                            Informa is often asked.                                       is beginning to                                             in telecoms and media,
                            The answer is not those                                       fall into place.                                            acting as trusted
                            that create the best                                          The development                                             brands for consumers
                            devices or services,                                          of solutions for                                            and helping them
Guillermo Escofet                                              Shailendra Pandey                                           Giles Cottle
Senior Analyst              but those that build               Senior Analyst             personalization,                 Principal Analyst          to navigate through
                            the platforms and                                             location, targeting,                                        seemingly endless
ecosystems that sit on these devices, across which             analytics and optimization means that the                   content and service choices.
these services can be offered.                                 potential to deliver contextual adverts has
                                                               greatly improved.                                           But the rise of IP delivery and connected devices
Yet much about what makes a great ecosystem                                                                                has brought a plethora of new players to the fore,
is still assumed. What are the key characteristics             We will examine the growing importance of multi-            all of which want to be the consumer’s navigation
of an ecosystem, and what is the best practice for             screen user engagement and interactive mobile               tool of choice through this brave new world.
developing one? Informa will draw on its deep                  advertising through case studies, analysis and
pool of research across mobile, broadband and TV               producing updated market forecasts on various               Informa will assess what traditional aggregators
to find out.”                                                  forms of mobile advertising.”                               must do to maintain their relevance in a changing
                                                                                                                           world, and analyze the new runners and riders
                                                                                                                           vying to replace them.”




                                                                                                                           >   Case studies deliver detailed, timely insight into the
                                                                                                                               technology and service deployments of operators and
                                                                                                                               service providers. Our network of in-market analysts
                                                               >   Our forecasts are more robust because they are
                                                                   produced by a dedicated forecasting team in
                                                                                                                               ensures that our analysis is supported by local insight.

                                                                   collaboration with our topic and region experts. This
                                                                   integrated approach ensures our methodologies
                                                                   and models are supported by deep qualitative

>
                                                                   understanding.
    Analyst comment provides a quick, strategic analyst view
    on trends and developments enabling you to understand
    and respond to market events.




                                                                                           20
seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces




User interface                                                  The sub $50 smartphone                                       App stores

                             “A device or service                                            “The explosion of                                            “The first
                             will be hamstrung if                                            smartphones and                                              phenomenally
                             it lacks a good user                                            the drive by mobile                                          successful mobile
                             interface (UI), no                                              operators to get them                                        content ecosystem
                             matter how brilliant                                            into people’s hands is                                       predates Apple’s App
                             the engineering                                                 creating value in the                                        Store by many years
Andrew Ladbrook                                                 David McQueen                                                Jamie Moss
Senior Analyst               behind it or how                   Principal Analyst            market. However, the            Senior Analyst               and was built by a
                             appealing the content                                           increasing clamor                                            mobile operator,
is. The user interface is becoming synonymous                   for smartphones will drive them into lower                   Japan’s NTT DoCoMo. The business model pursued
with a user’s experience, and can make or break a               price tiers, changing market dynamics. In most               by DoCoMo with i-mode was not that different to
device or service.                                              emerging markets, PC/laptop prices are a barrier             the one later adopted by Apple with the App Store:
                                                                to Internet uptake and low-cost smartphones will             a marketplace where all kinds of third parties
Informa will be examining what makes a good                     increasingly play a significant role in such markets.        could set up shop and sell their wares directly to
UI for Internet services, device operating systems                                                                           end users, giving a share of their takings to the
and applications, across all screens. Best-of-breed             We will produce case studies demonstrating what              'store' owner.
examples will be highlighted, and a cross-sector                impact low-cost smartphones will have on mobile
analysis will determine if any one screen is lagging            data uptake and also Internet penetration in key             This coming year, we will be looking at the
behind its peers.”                                              markets. We will also analyze each operating                 ecosystem strategies of the various players
                                                                system detailing how it can reach the $50                    out there and at how operators’ content and
                                                                threshold we expect from the handset vendors and             application strategies are evolving in a desperate
                                                                mobile operators.”                                           bid to retain relevance.”




>   We organise 100+ market leading annual events
    including LTE World Series, Com World Series and IPTV
    World Forum. Our core services include exclusive access
    to the PowerPoint presentations delivered at all of these
    events. These papers provide unique insight into the        >   Our five-year smartphone forecasts include smartphone
                                                                    sales volume, distribution penetration by region and
    strategies, positioning and plans of your competitors           operating system. Our robust methodologies and
    and customers.                                                  models are informed by deep qualitative understanding.




                                                                                                                             >   In 2012, our content and applications team will cover
                                                                                                                                 topics including mobile content and service value chains
                                                                                                                                 and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact
                                                                                                                                 of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your
                                                                                                                                 decision-making and offer points for action.




                                                                                           21
2012 ReseARch AgendA




Seizing new revenue
opportunities
seIZIng neW Revenue oppoRTunITIes




R    obust year-on-year revenue growth
     has become a fading memory for an
industry which took double-digit growth
for granted during the 1990s and the
first half of the last decade.

Consumers and businesses may be reaping the            Connected Verticals                                  and data. In sectors such as healthcare, utilities
benefits of high-speed, widely-available broad-                                                             and automotive, operators are looking to provide
band connectivity and new devices, but, for                                                                 solutions and services that help to increase effi-
telecoms operators, saturated markets, stiff com-                                                           ciencies and drive new revenue growth.
petition and tough regulation are the day-to-day                                                                Emerging markets present clearer opportuni-
realities that shape their business environment.                                                            ties than developed ones in both consumer and
    Innovation is proving elusive. Operators and                                                            business markets (although low ARPU levels
TV companies are now competing in an over-                                                                  and the high cost and low availability of broad-
the-top world where smaller, nimbler, risk-taking                                                           band access means that new pricing and business
companies are prepared to offer services to the                                                             models will need to be adopted).
end user for free in the hope that they will either
uncover a business model or a buyer before their
funding runs out.
    The biggest single growth opportunity for
operators today is selling data plans with smart-                                                           … a bigger opportunity lies in using
phones. Postpaid markets already have high                                                                  new technologies and platforms such
smartphone penetration and the next wave will                                                               as cloud computing, Ethernet and
see the adoption of $100-$200 smartphones in                                                                M2M to serve specific needs within
both developed and emerging markets. Mobile                Rural broadband connectivity has become an       different small, medium and large
broadband (dongles) is still a growing market but      important policy initiative for many governments     enterprises.
a less attractive option than smartphones because      and a new revenue stream for network operators
of the heavy demands on the network placed by          rolling out LTE in lower-frequency bands.
many users.                                                Beyond broadband connectivity, many of the           In the consumer market, the falling cost of
                                                       new revenue opportunities today sit in the busi-     smartphones and the rollout of 3G networks
                                                       ness and enterprise sector. Enterprise mobility is   means that the Internet will reach hundreds of
                                                       starting to gain momentum, driven by mobile          millions of people for the first time over the next
                                                       operators facing saturation in the consumer          two to three years. The rollout of mobile and
The biggest single growth opportunity                  market. But Informa Telecoms & Media believes        fixed broadband services will also create tremen-
for operators today is selling data                    that a bigger opportunity lies in using new tech-    dous new opportunities in the business market
plans with smartphones.                                nologies and platforms, such as cloud computing,     and in the public sector where the mobile phone
                                                       Ethernet and M2M, to serve specific needs within     can provide a low-cost platform for the dissemi-
                                                       different small, medium and large enterprises.       nation of a range of services including education,
   The rollout of LTE is allowing operators to             In the past, operators have tended to segment    healthcare and payments. 
offer higher speeds and a better quality of service.   business users by number of employees. But a
Many are also bundling in content such as music        new approach is emerging that allows product
or video with high-end price plans. Operators are      and service differentiation based on industry
eyeing connected devices as a potential new rev-       type. Operators are now (slowly) starting to
enue stream and the embedding of LTE in tablet         develop vertical solutions using a combination of
computers should help to increase the share of         fixed and mobile technologies and platforms that
devices that are sold with cellular price plans.       go beyond the provision of traditional telephony




                                                                              23
2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs




Cloud                                                          Vertical markets                                               Putting the “B” in the middle of B2C

                             “Cloud computing                                             “Telecom technology                                            “Many of the windows
                             offers unprecedented                                         is enabling                                                    of opportunity for
                             potential to touch                                           radical business                                               operators to develop
                             ICT wallet share once                                        transformation in                                              consumer value-added
                             unobtainable for                                             the world’s largest                                            services are closing as
                             telecom firms. That’s                                        industries. By                                                 OTT players with global
Camille Mendler                                                Sheridan Nye                                                   Mark Newman
Principal Analyst            because the cloud’s               Senior Analyst             connecting and                      Chief Research Officer     reach and free-to-
                             commercial model of                                          managing formerly                                              the-end-user business
renting versus buying computing power, storage,                isolated endpoints, technology suppliers are                   models exploit the potential of smartphones and
software development tools and applications                    optimizing operations and creating whole new                   the mobile Internet.
disrupts the traditional ICT supply chain.”                    business models in these sectors. “
                                                                                                                              There has long been talk of the so-called two-
                                                                                                                              sided business model and operators are slowly
                                                                                                                              but surely starting to realize the opportunity to
                                                                                                                              provide mobile channel and network capabilities
                                                                                                                              to commercial and public organizations.
                                                                                                                              Examples include pharmaceutical companies
                                                                                                                              that are looking to use the mobile channel to
                                                                                                                              help them transition into health providers and
                                                                                                                              applications developers that are talking to
                                                                                                                              operators about using their billing capabilities to
                                                                                                                              monetize their services.
>   Telecom Cloud Monitor is an analytical tool tracking
    the cloud-related activities of more than 90 operators     >   Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and
                                                                   network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for
    and 150 vendors worldwide. The service is available as         their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are      Informa Telecoms & Media will produce case
    part of our Enterprise Verticals research offering which       produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast
    is supplemented with best-practice case studies and            team and 65 country and topic-facing analysts.             studies of successful (and unsuccessful) B2B2C
    business model analysis.                                                                                                  business models and identify those sectors which
                                                                                                                              provide most short- and medium-term potential.”




                                                                                                                              >   In 2012, our operator strategy team will cover topics
                                                                                                                                  including the economics of carrier Wi-Fi, best practice
                                                                                                                                  in customer experience management and partnership
                                                                                                                                  strategies with OTT providers. Our analysis is designed to
                                                                                                                                  support your decision making and offer points for action.




                                                                                            24
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012
Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

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Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

  • 1. Informa Telecoms & Media 2012 Research Agenda Your global research partner www.informatandm.com
  • 2. Make better business decisions Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of research, events and training to the global telecoms and media industry. Every year, 10,000 companies use our services to evaluate market opportunities, benchmark their competitors and grow their businesses. We are part of Informa PLC, the leading provider of business information and services with over 8,000 employees in 150 offices worldwide. ReseARch And consulTIng confeRences And exhIbITIons TRAInIng Our research business delivers independent Our 100+ annual events and exhibitions are The Telecoms Academy team delivers a public strategic insight, global market data and critical in driving the industry’s agenda. We bring portfolio of over 50 training programmes every primary research. We work in partnership with together high-calibre decision-makers from the year. These include intensive five-day Telecoms our clients to inform their decision-making with mobile, fixed, alternative, wholesale, MVNO, Mini MBA and specialist next generation actionable advice and support. broadband and satellite operator communities. technology courses. Key services include: Key events include:
  • 3. Welcome To our 2012 Research Agenda At Informa Telecoms & Media we are never short of ideas for new topics and themes to research and analyze. As analysts we spend our lives immersed in the telecoms and media industries, absorbing new information, speaking to key decision-makers and making connections between trends and developments across different countries and regions. Producing a compelling research agenda is challenging because of the sheer breadth and diversity of the sectors that we cover. We started putting our ideas together for 2012 in the early summer and then condensing them into four key themes which, we believe, will drive this industry forward over the next 12 months. Details of our 2012 research themes start on page 12. Our four key themes for 2012 are; · The transformed telco · Reengineering the broadband business model · Services, ecosystems and connected devices · Seizing new revenue opportunities The four themes have six mini themes, each of which will be explored in some detail. They capture the big questions that the industry is now asking itself. How relevant are operators in the new services ecosystem? Can operators protect (and grow!) profit margins by cost-cutting alone? Should TV companies partner with Internet firms? Is operator focus shifting from consumer to business and enterprise markets (we think it is)? And how quickly should operators roll out next generation networks? Most important of all, our analysts' opinons are always based on a solid foundation of market data and forecasts. We look forward to working with you over the next year as we explore these themes. And, as ever, we welcome your own thoughts and feedback. Mark Newman Chief Research Officer mark.newman@informa.com 03
  • 4. benefit from our expertise Informa Telecoms & Media's research business We cAn help you… has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more Plan your strategic direction: – Prioritize growth opportunities than 25 years. – Size market supply and demand – Benchmark your performance We have more than 60 analysts in 10 research offices across 5 continents helping our clients Build competitor and customer intelligence: make better decisions. They are accessible, – Identify business drivers responsive and connected to your markets, – Understand threats and challenges – Develop product, positioning and sales strategies business goals and challenges. Drive product development and positioning: Our clients rely on us to gather competitor – Justify your business cases and customer intelligence, steer product – Formulate a pricing strategy development and drive strategic planning. – Prepare a market entry timetable Because our analysts spend more of their time engaging with our clients at events, briefings and through our support service, we are always Why choose us? close to your business issues. 1 We provide a unique mix of in-market, sector and forecasting expertise to ensure local insight and a definitive view. We don’t sit on the fence. 2 Our analysts benefit from exclusive access to a broad community of senior-level decision makers. We don’t lock them in ivory towers. 3 We collect and interpret more data across more markets than anyone else. We don’t outsource data collection. 04
  • 5. our services InTellIgence cenTRe WoRld bRoAdbAnd InfoRMATIon consulTIng And cusToMIZed seRvIce ReseARch We offer a complete range of customized research and consultancy services. All of our consulting engagements benefit from our core market data and forecasting expertise and access to our C-level industry communities. Find out more www.informatandm.com /customised-research Intelligence Centre is the central online source of all of our advisory analysis, primary WBIS is the complete broadband and multi- research, market data and forecasts. The channel TV resource featuring broadband, service includes a number of powerful search, fixed-line telephony and multichannel TV alerting and report tools as well as direct subscriber numbers from 2000 to 2011 and ouR ReseARch Includes access to our analysts. forecasts to 2016. Market data and 5-year forecasts Find out more www.informatandm.com/ic Find out more www.informatandm.com/wbis Five-year historical and forecast metrics including subscription, network and device numbers and key financial and operational indicators. We have a centralized forecasting team working collaboratively with our analysts to ensure WoRld cellulAR InfoRMATIon seRvIce neTWoRk econoMIcs Tool consistent results. Analysis and case studies In-depth views on emerging trends and in-market case studies enable you to track operator strategy. Country and company profiles Regular, analytical snapshots of market dynamics and company initiatives, delivered in PowerPoint. Conference presentations WCIS remains the cellular world’s leading NET is a new, easy to use online service which A complete archive of speaker presentations from source of accurate, robust data and 5-year enables equipment vendors and operators our 100+ annual conferences provides invaluable forecasts. The service tracks global mobile to model the capital and operational cost of competitor and customer insight. subscriptions, KPIs, financial and operational deploying and upgrading wireless broadband indicators in real time and includes direct networks and understand ROI. Surveys access to our analysts. The full results and detailed analysis of surveys Find out more www.informatandm.com/net designed to address industry perceptions across Find out more www.informatandm.com/wcis key topics. Respondents are drawn from our community of senior executives. 05
  • 6. Talk directly To our Analysts We believe that providing direct access to our analysts is essential in ensuring our research is both relevant and actionable. All of our services include direct analyst access enabling you to connect with our team via e-mail, telephone, webinars and face-to-face briefings. Analyst access can be used to clarify our findings, understand the background to developments or to further explore our views and methodologies. WhAT ARe you AskIng us? AnAlysT Access exAMples Analyst Access queries by topic over the last year: Client: Finally, Sprint is expected to maintain its CDMA I am looking at Informa’s latest LTE spectrum network in the 1900 band for the near future, forecasts – could you please provide me some hence the later date expected for that band. insight into the methodology used to develop the launch dates for Sprint's LTE networks in the US? It is also worth noting, Sprint recently announced plans to work with LightSquared on LTE in the Analyst Access: L-band (1600 band). As a part of its Network Vision plan, Sprint plans to turn down iDEN, which operates in the 800 band, Client: beginning in 2013. It is Informa’s belief that it is at Do you have any comment on how the IDEOS this time that that band will be transitioned to LTE. smartphone has been received in Kenya? In addition, at the time the forecast was Analyst Access: prepared, it was our belief that Sprint would I was in Nairobi when the IDEOS smartphone was work with Clearwire to provide LTE in the 2500 launched in the market by Safaricom. From my  KPIs / financials ................ 24%  Market sizing ...................... 9% band, and that it would happen relatively conversations with distributors, I sense that the  Mobile / fixed access  Mobile broadband ........... 5% market response in terms of sales has been quite networks ............................ 13% quickly. Last week, Clearwire made an  MVNOs .................................. 3%  Connected home .............. 5% announcement that it will deploy LTE in the 2500 impressive, although no figures have yet been  Pricing / tariffs .................... 5%  Mobile content and  Smartphones / operating band in some of its existing markets without released. The price of the device is low compared applications ...................... 10% systems ................................. 7% working with Sprint. Clearwire said it may work to other smart phones in the market (it retails  Operational strategies .... 4%  Other ................................... 11%  Device market and with Sprint and its Network Vision plan to build at US$100). The device’s most popular features segmentation ..................... 4% new markets in the future. appear to be its high resolution touch screen, the 3.2 Megapixel camera and the presence of multiple applications. 06
  • 7. consulting and customized Research Our consulting expertise is founded on our deep industry engagement and delivered by our experienced network of analysts. Our approach to your business issues and objectives is practical and pragmatic. All of our consulting engagements benefit from our core market data and forecasting expertise and access to our C-level industry communities. cAse sTudIes cusToMIsed soluTIons Include: Market Survey White Paper – Benchmark reports Client: Client: – Surveys Value-added solutions provider for mobile Tier 1 handset vendor – Webinars operators. Objective: – White papers Objective: To assess the effect of different smartphone – Country reports To transform its service proposition and validate operating systems on current mobile – Company reports views of the Asia Pacific market. broadband networks and estimate the energy – Forecasts requirements that these create on the network. – Go-to-market reports Solution: – Case studies “Using our network Solution: – Event facilitation of research contacts “Coupling our in-house – Speaking engagements we tested the view of research and data with – Workshops the APAC market by a bespoke analytical conducting a series model and wide Charles Moon Principal Analyst of in-depth strategic network of contacts, Nicholas Jotischky interviews and Principal Analyst we were able to running a survey. This resulted in the publication implement a modeling of a White Paper taking the client’s message to a tool. The result was a White Paper used by the regional audience and was followed up by a series client to promote its smartphone ecosystem and of strategic briefings to C-level service provider platform to mobile operators, thereby illustrating audiences in the region.” energy savings that will become important to its marketing efforts.” 07
  • 8. global Reach We believe that the diversity of global telecoms markets requires a distinctive regional view on localised trends, events and consumer patterns. We achieve this by providing in-depth country perspectives. Over the last six months our analysts in 12 countries have produced 65 detailed country profiles. noRTh AMeRIcA lATIn AMeRIcA WesTeRn euRope eAsTeRn euRope Mike Roberts Daniele Tricarico Dario Talmesio Stephen Wilson Principal Analyst Senior Analyst Principal Analyst Senior Analyst “In the midst of market “A key challenge for mobile “Europe’s operators must implement “Eastern European broadband and consolidation, an understandable operators in Latin America is how to competitive strategies in the attempt voice markets tend to be extremely outcome of the mobile broadband deliver revenue-generating mobile to counteract disintermediation. competitive, and therefore bundling boom, what the US mobile industry content to the entire customer If successful, operators will with multichannel TV is becoming really needs is a hefty dose of base. Operators must stop equating embrace openness and morph into an essential strategy for operators spectrum by 2015. Without this, how content to smartphones, and something similar to an OTT player.” trying to increase subscriber loyalty. will operators succeed in meeting should address the entire prepaid With average TV-viewing times high the public’s proven demand for segment including basic and low- in the region, multichannel TV is a Internet and other applications feature devices.” key part of the bundle and even has running on smartphones, tablets potential as a stand-alone product.” and other devices?” office locations worldwide: San Francisco – USA | Chicago – USA | Boston – USA | Sao Paolo – Brazil | London – UK 08
  • 9. AfRIcA MIddle eAsT noRTh AsIA AsIA pAcIfIc Thecla Mbongue Matthew Reed Charice Wang Vanessa Jalleh Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Research Analyst “Significant lessons can be learned “The growth prospects offered by “North Asia continues to drive the “With organic growth slowing in from studying the practices of mobile the Middle East remain attractive, region in terms of subscribers and many markets around Southeast operators in Africa. Be it through the but the region is complex and revenues, with innovation coming Asia, operators are focusing use of dynamic tariffs, the spread varied and local understanding from massive Internet players, more on loyalty to maintain of mobile-money services or the is necessary in order to take best particularly in the markets of their competitive edge; customer creation of loyalty schemes, many of advantage of its opportunities. Japan, Korea, and China. Pressure analytic and business intelligence Africa’s service providers recognize Stronger focus will be placed from over the top players in these is therefore becoming a key enabler the importance of a well-segmented on mobile broadband and the markets are being addressed in gaining market share, as carriers and relevant customer experience.” provision of converged services differently in each country, compete in the brave new world of as operators look to become whether due to legacy issues maturing markets.” more relevant in meeting the (Japan), vendor influence (Korea), evolving needs of consumers and or government policy (China); enterprises alike.” we look at how mobile carriers in each are positioning themselves for the long term to address common challenges in their unique operating environments.” | Johannesburg – South Africa | Dubai – UAE | Singapore | Beijing – China | Hyderabad – India | Brisbane – Australia 09
  • 10. 2012 ReseARch AgendA The transformed telco
  • 11. The TRAnsfoRMed Telco C hanges in technology, usage trends and the competitive landscape are forcing telecoms operators to evolve a business model that has served them well for many decades. Without such an evolution, operators will lose in a single country, and on a regional or global looking to develop a more sophisticated retail ground – and business – to the so-called over- basis to meet the requirements of global enter- approach as an integral part of their customer the-top players. And they will fail to capture new prises or partners such as consumer electronics experience strategy. But unless they find a way revenue opportunities in mobile broadband, manufacturers. of expanding into the new connected device M2M and connected verticals. Investment in next-generation fixed and market and become experts in mobile comput- With the slowdown in new connections, wireless networks is challenging for any opera- ing, they risk becoming dumb shops and losing and operators’ limited success in selling ser- tor whose revenues are stagnating in real terms. market share to consumer electronics shops that vices to their customers, efficiency and cost Operators are reluctant to increase their capex-to- are accustomed to tight profit margins and find- control have become the key modus operandi sales ratios and are therefore taking a longer-term ing the right balance between online and offline for many telcos. approach to rolling out new technologies such as retailing. The lean telco is a thread that runs through LTE than was the case with 3G. New approaches most of the issues and strategies surrounding to extending the life and improving the speeds the operator business. With flat – and in some delivered by copper and 3.5G networks are also cases stagnating – revenues in mature markets, combining to make the case for investing in new operators are under pressure to cut opex levels. network technologies more challenging. Operators are looking to develop a Managed services and outsourcing strategies are With the slowdown in the growth of new con- more sophisticated retail approach coming to the fore with operators more open nections, operators are starting to place a greater as an integral part of their customer than ever to relinquishing control of functions emphasis on strategies to retain existing custom- experience strategy. that have traditionally been seen as core to their ers than attracting new ones. Customer experi- business. Network sharing is gaining momen- ence has evolved from a customer-care approach tum, particularly as operators seek to justify to an important part of an operator’s corporate With over-the-top (Internet) players now investment in LTE. strategy to improve customer loyalty. The opera- playing a dominant role in the provision of new tor needs to be able to offer a good experience services for the consumer market, operators are throughout its touch points with customers, from starting to review their role in the value chain the operator store, through the service experience and the balance between serving the consumer to the call center. Customer information is now and business segments. This change in approach Operators are reluctant to increase a means to differentiation as part of the customer is seeing the operator become more of an enabler their capex-to-sales ratios and experience. than a provider of new services and, in many are therefore taking a longer- Customer Experience Management (CEM) cases, involves third-party service providers tran- term approach to rolling out new demands a holistic and unified approach from sitioning into customers of the operator. technologies such as LTE. the operator’s different areas. A central customer One of the areas where operators believe that database is required in order to provide consis- they still have a strong role to play is in the use tency across all different channels and the infor- of the SIM card as a secure element in the provi- Operators are also coming to recognize that mation needed to deal with multiple challenges sion and sale of new services. Many of the part- they may need to partner with each other both to throughout a customer’s lifetime. Operators nerships involving new services relate to mobile reduce costs and to develop platforms and capa- need to realize that customer experience plays a payments and transactions. In the case of NFC, bilities that allow them to roll out new services. key role in customer loyalty and consequently in operators want the SIM card to become the These operator-to-operator partnerships can be their profitability. default method for securing applications.  built both on a national level to enable third For many customers, the operator shop is parties to deliver their services to all mobile users the most important touch point. Operators are 11
  • 12. 2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs Next-generation access Customer experience Lean telco models “Let’s face facts: few “An outstanding “If you would be operators’ superfast customer experience wealthy, think of saving broadband strategies should be embedded in as well as getting. have gone to plan. all operator strategies, Operating in a world Take-up has been slow, from marketing and of intense competition, yet next-generation advertising to network regulatory intervention Rob Gallagher Júlio Püschel Thomas Wehmeier Principal Analyst access (NGA) networks Senior Analyst and smartphones. Principal Analyst and macroeconomic haven’t got any Operators should uncertainty means cheaper to build. Learning from success stories focus on customer profitability by analyzing the telcos are having to fight harder than ever to isn’t easy either. The huge cost and complexity potential customer life-time value across customer stabilize top-line revenues. Coupled with an of rolling out NGA has magnified differences segments. The different demands will dictate the investor climate exerting relentless pressure to between countries and operators, making the importance of various factors, affecting everything maintain or grow operating margins, the need to broadband market more fragmented than ever.” from subsidy rates to a diversity of bundled offers.” evolve into a ruthlessly efficient, lean business has never been greater for today’s telco. We believe, that some telcos are now achieving operational excellence and our globally- sourced case studies and analysis will identify companies that have done this successfully and, more importantly, outline how and why some telcos have been able to drive costs out of their businesses.” > Operator profiles enable you to track the performance of the 40 largest telcos globally. Delivered in PowerPoint they detail operational and financial performance, local market conditions, market share, regulatory > In 2012, our broadband and TV team will produce over 400 analysis pieces covering topics including next- > Case studies provide real-life examples of service- provider strategies and best practice. Every case study developments, key operational initiatives and product and pricing updates. generation access, IPTV and the connected home. Our includes a SWOT analysis and directional comment analysis is designed to support your decision making and exploring key lessons learnt and likely development. offer key points for action. 12
  • 13. The TRAnsfoRMed Telco Retail Operator partnerships SIM, identity and security “As consumers are “Operators are coming “The evolution of the changing their to see the benefits SIM is becoming an shopping behavior, of partnering with important issue for telecom operators will each other to create mobile operators as follow them. Digital national, regional and they strive to retain commerce, social- global alliances. Within an important role in Dario Talmesio Mark Newman Jamie Moss Principal Analyst media networks, Chief Research Officer national markets, a Senior Analyst the provision of new group-buying sites number of operators services and connected and cross-channel sales will be used by operators have joined forces on NFC to expand the potential devices. The development of embedded SIMs and intending to enhance customer experience across market for those companies and organizations soft SIMs gives OEMs and MVNOs greater freedom all channels. Meanwhile, operators will start that are interested in rolling out mobile payment to bring their products to market and has the retailing and billing for digital goods and services services. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom potential to ultimately strengthen or, alternatively, and sell new types of connected devices. are partnering in a number of different areas to to marginalize the operator. expand their footprints, share development costs We will be monitoring the development of and create economies of scale. And when it comes Informa Telecoms & Media is monitoring the multichannel retail strategies, the use of social to new opportunities in M2M and connected development of advanced SIM technology to media as a sales and CRM channel in operator devices, global approaches are essential if identify any issues with security and to map owned and independent retail channels through operators are to forge alliances with consumer the growth of the B2B2C services market for case studies and analysis, showcasing the most electronics firms and enterprises who themselves connectivity. We also seek to explore the long- effective ways of getting customers to shop and have a global presence and strategy. term implications of this business model on pay for digital and telecom services.” wireless carriers, the evolution of their role and any Over the next year, we will compare the changes in their relationship with the rest of the approaches of different operator groups and value chain.” identify where the best opportunities for alliances exist. We will also identify the risks for operators that fail to partner and provide advice and recommendations for how best to exploit global opportunities without building global footprints.” > In 2012, our content and applications team will cover > topics including mobile content and service value chains We have been delivering successful consulting projects and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact for over 15 years. Our approach to your objectives is of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your practical and pragmatic; our in-market teams include specialists across the value chain, helping us deliver valid results quickly. > Analyst comments provide a quick, strategic analyst view on trends and developments enabling you to decision-making and offer points for action. understand, react and respond to market events. 13
  • 14. 2012 ReseARch AgendA Re-engineering the broadband business model
  • 15. Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model O perators have long been concerned about managing the growth of Internet traffic on their fixed networks. But, more recently, it has been the burgeoning It is the growth of video usage and applica- Potential options for operators to counter Internet companies’ traffic growth and service strategies usage of Internet services (and especially video) tions that is driving data traffic growth. Video over mobile networks delivered to smartphones can account for more than two-thirds of the total and laptops that has forced them to re-evaluate data traffic handled by an operator. As such, 1 Make Internet companies pay for sending traffic over their networks 6 Introduce tiered pricing and move to a commercial model where there is a their pricing and service strategies. operators are starting to develop specific strate- direct correlation between While operators still harbor hopes of per- suading Internet companies to contribute to gies for managing and optimizing video traffic. During 2011, operators have started active dis- 2 Compete with the services that Internet companies offer to their end users the bandwidth that the end users consume and what they pay. This would effectively mean increasing the price of the cost of carrying high-bandwidth traffic, their cussions with players such as Google looking most realistic hope of ensuring that broadband at potential approaches for reducing global and 3 Develop a platform strategy of their own broadband access to heavier users remains a profitable business involves explor- regional traffic flows. Many of these discussions ing and implementing a whole range of differ- have involved assessing the potential of using 4 Sell network technologies and solutions to Internet companies to help reduce the 7 Stick with their current strategy of optimzing the networks, increasing capacity ent approaches for reducing the costs of carry- CDNs and phasing out peering and transit agree- traffic burden in the backhaul (fiber and DSL) and access (LTE) networks ing traffic and developing a more sophisticated ments which oblige operators to carry traffic approach towards pricing broadband access. from North America into Europe and Asia for 5 Deprioritize Internet companies' traffic or make certain traffic types and introducing generous tiered pricing plans. minimal financial recompense. are available only over Wi-Fi networks Flat-rate, “all-you-can-eat” price plans have become synonymous with the Internet and yet in 2011 most mobile operators started to move Tiered pricing should be seen as the away from such an approach. Tiered pricing is first phase of a pricing revolution now commonplace and most operators seem to which will see the emergence of a have been able to move to this new model with huge array of different price plans. little or no backlash from customers. Tiered pricing should be seen as the first phase of a pricing revolution which will see the Most operators are now using a number of emergence of a huge array of different price plans different techniques to understand and optimize based on location, time of day, type of applica- customers single data plans for multiple devices. the different types of traffic on their networks. tion and type of device. The term yield manage- If operators are to adopt more dynamic pric- At the same time, there is growing interest in ment which has been embraced, for example, by ing approaches they will need support systems using femtocells and Wi-Fi to offload data traffic. the airline industry to maximize revenues from that enable such functionality. There is a growing Rather than simply buying Wi-Fi capacity from each flight, is now being applied to broadband need for charging – rather than billing – capabili- third-party service providers, operators are now access. As operators explore new pricing para- ties that allow operators and apps developers to looking to build out their own Wi-Fi networks digms, regulators will carefully monitor whether take innovative, flexible approaches towards the and offering access to them to both their fixed they have implications in terms of net neutrality, pricing of different services, Legacy billing systems and mobile broadband customers. a concept designed to protect freedom and open- struggle to offer this functionality and further Devices have an important role to play too. ness on the Internet. investment is needed in areas such as improved Operators are starting to assess the strain that dif- Operators will also experiment with different data storage, mining and retrieval systems, analyti- ferent smartphone and operating systems place approaches for bundling broadband access across cal software for customer segmentation and more on their networks. This will ultimately have an different devices and networks. Rather than efficient signaling management in the access and impact on decisions about which devices to sup- attaching price plans to each device, operators core networks before operators can be confident port and subsidize. now believe that there is merit in offering their about investing in new charging systems.  15
  • 16. 2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs Wi-Fi Yield management OSS/BSS transformation “Wi-Fi is by some “Operators have found “Any attempt to distance the most out the hard way that re-engineer the important wireless mobile broadband can broadband business technology in the be unprofitable. In their model presupposes world based on volume initial monetization an intelligent, of data carried. The efforts, mobile content-agnostic Mike Roberts Dimitris Mavrakis Peter Dykes Principal Analyst second wave of Wi-Fi Principal Analyst operators aggressively Senior Analyst support infrastructure. has well and truly marketed USB modems Existing OSS/BSS arrived and is forcing an entire ecosystem to but soon found out that smartphones can make was never designed to deliver such functionality rethink strategies for turning end-user demand for a significantly more profitable business case. Yield and therefore transformation is vital to meet the Wi-Fi into tangible return. management is the exercise of efficiently utilizing challenges created by the provision of next- mobile broadband spectrum in order to generate generation, broadband data services. We continue our ongoing research efforts into maximum revenues and profits. Wi-Fi with a clear focus on qualifying its growth We will be studying the development of worldwide. We will track deployment, uptake and We will be constantly looking into mobile smarter networks through case studies and usage of Wi-Fi both inside and outside the home broadband operator business cases and will also analysis, highlighting the most effective ways of and will pay special attention to the diverse array of be modeling the most interesting networks with monetizing data services by exploiting network emerging business models that are underpinning our Network Economics Tool (NET).” and business intelligence.” widespread investment into the technology.” > Webinars offer a popular way to engage with our lead analysts and quickly access the findings of our research streams. In 2012, we will host more than 40 webinar sessions. > Network Economics Tool (NET) is an easy to use online tool which enables equipment vendors and operators to model the capital and operational cost of deploying and upgrading wireless broadband networks and understand ROI. The tool allows operators to independently develop, > Case studies feature a qualitative assessment of strategy, value chain and market positioning in addition test and refine a business case for any target market in to a quantitative evaluation of success, including real time using a combination of market data, technical competitor benchmarking. parameters and economic inputs. 16
  • 17. Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model Managing and monetizing video Pricing and bundling Impact of different devices and platforms “Video is the killer “Data pricing has “So far, user experience app for connected come to occupy center and user demand have devices, with stage in an operator’s been the main factors consumers increasingly agenda. The emerging in operators’ choice expecting multiscreen, role data plays in the of smartphone OS on-demand, high- revenue-generating platforms. However, Nick Thomas Panos Loukos Malik Saadi Principal Analyst quality video content. Senior Analyst process has prompted Principal Analyst over time, the gap in But key questions have the appearance of new the user experience yet to be answered: who will pay for the content forms of data plan structures and billing patterns. offered by various competing platforms will and the delivery, will it come from managed or narrow. At the same time, the popularity of over-the-top providers, and how will vendors We will track the mobile data pricing strategies of smartphones is creating a traffic tsunami which is throughout the value chain make money?” mobile operators in 20 markets in five continents. forcing operators to look more closely at how their We will then use service profiling and in-depth networks are used. Spectrum efficiency, including analysis to identify the most important trends that both data and signalling optimization, are will shape the data plan paradigm in 2012.” increasingly becoming key criteria in prioritizing platforms. Informa Telecoms & Media is currently conducting an in-depth study into the spectrum efficiency of different platforms. Preliminary results indicate that there are big disparities in the way different OS ecosystems consume network bandwidth. While some OSs are highly optimized to carry messaging or browsing traffic others are more > Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for efficient when dealing with video streaming.” their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast team and 60 country and topic-facing analysts. > Our market data offering is the most comprehensive set of country and operator metrics available including subscriptions, market share and penetration and an advanced set of financial and operational KPIs across mobile, fixed-line and multichannel TV markets. > Our integrated forecasting approach ensures our robust methodologies and models are informed by deep qualitative understanding. 17
  • 18. 2012 ReseARch AgendA Services, ecosystems and connected devices
  • 19. seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces C onsumers have developed a taste for accessing their favorite services and applications on different small and large-screen devices. In turn, the developers of the platforms that sup- market paradigm. Apple and Google are the a lower-end device for prepaid markets? port these services, the device manufacturers and undisputed champions of the ecosystem. Technology companies and service provid- the content owners, have taken the opportunity Apple’s success in its hardware business – and ers are exploring options beyond platforms for to extend their influence and presence across in particular the iPhone – owes much to its differentiating their products and services. With these different devices and networks. iTunes and applications store services built on the dominance of the Android and iOS on smart Device manufacturers have developed their Apple’s own operating system. Google’s strat- devices, differentiation in the user interface may own service and application strategies; online egy for taking its services (and revenues) beyond be a better alternative than an in-house OS. players have moved into the devices space, the PC is founded on the Android operating This is costly and there is no guarantee of being investing in either the software (platform) busi- system, which is now the market-leading plat- able to create a product that can compete with ness or in hardware itself; content owners have form for smartphones, and on YouTube. There the market leaders. But the key to developing a adopted multiscreen strategies, often with little is continual speculation over whether these two popular and successful UI – particularly across or no clarity about the viability of new busi- players will seek to plug the gaps in their port- platforms and devices – is not always obvious. ness models. And TV companies are developing folios. Should Apple start manufacturing its home gateways as their anchors to connected own televisions? Google indirectly entered the device superiority. hardware business in August this year with its acquisition of Motorola’s handsets and set-top- box activities, but what it will do with its new Smartphones will become the Impact of common/open standards on the connected- assets remains to be seen. dominant provider of Internet device landscape No other companies come close to matching connectivity to hundreds of millions Apple or Google’s dominance of ecosystems. of people  0-12 months ....... 6% Nokia and Microsoft, arguably the two biggest  1-2 years ............. 38% victims of the success of Apple and Google, are  3-5 years ............. 41% now joining forces in the development of mobile Aggregators are another group of companies  6-10 years ............ 6% software and services. A whole host of other facing an uncertain future as online platform and  10+ years ............. 3% companies from the traditional telecoms, TV, service providers become aggregators in their  Never happen .... 7% consumer electronics and mobile phone busi- own right. nesses are trying to figure out their current and Ecosystems hold most relevance today to future roles in different ecosystems. The “too- developed markets characterized by multi-de- Exact question wording was: When will it become common practice big-to-fail?” question is one that constantly nags vice ownership and high smartphone penetra- for content providers to offer content directly to consumers via connected devices and bypass traditional service providers and operators? at these, and other, contenders. No company tion. But smartphone prices are falling rapidly should be tempted to create its own ecosystem and, within the next two years, will be within if its core product, its cash-cow, is not fit for reach of the mass market in the developing purpose. world. Smartphones will become the dominant In this brave new world, the customer is king The success of Apple and Google is changing (in many cases, only) provider of Internet con- and traditional content providers, TV companies the outlook and business models for the sectors nectivity to hundreds of millions of people. In and device manufacturers are under siege from in which they are active. Google dominates the doing so, they will open up huge opportunities global players that started life on the Internet and online advertising business. Will it gain a simi- for local and global content creators and appli- who threaten their very existence. lar stranglehold on mobile and TV advertising? cations developers.  Creating a strong ecosystem has become Apple’s dominance today is confined to the high- an essential ingredient for success in this new end smartphone business but what if it launches 19
  • 20. 2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs Future ecosystems Future advertising The evolving aggregator landscape “Who will win in a “The mobile “Aggregators have multiscreen world?” advertising ecosystem always played key roles Informa is often asked. is beginning to in telecoms and media, The answer is not those fall into place. acting as trusted that create the best The development brands for consumers devices or services, of solutions for and helping them Guillermo Escofet Shailendra Pandey Giles Cottle Senior Analyst but those that build Senior Analyst personalization, Principal Analyst to navigate through the platforms and location, targeting, seemingly endless ecosystems that sit on these devices, across which analytics and optimization means that the content and service choices. these services can be offered. potential to deliver contextual adverts has greatly improved. But the rise of IP delivery and connected devices Yet much about what makes a great ecosystem has brought a plethora of new players to the fore, is still assumed. What are the key characteristics We will examine the growing importance of multi- all of which want to be the consumer’s navigation of an ecosystem, and what is the best practice for screen user engagement and interactive mobile tool of choice through this brave new world. developing one? Informa will draw on its deep advertising through case studies, analysis and pool of research across mobile, broadband and TV producing updated market forecasts on various Informa will assess what traditional aggregators to find out.” forms of mobile advertising.” must do to maintain their relevance in a changing world, and analyze the new runners and riders vying to replace them.” > Case studies deliver detailed, timely insight into the technology and service deployments of operators and service providers. Our network of in-market analysts > Our forecasts are more robust because they are produced by a dedicated forecasting team in ensures that our analysis is supported by local insight. collaboration with our topic and region experts. This integrated approach ensures our methodologies and models are supported by deep qualitative > understanding. Analyst comment provides a quick, strategic analyst view on trends and developments enabling you to understand and respond to market events. 20
  • 21. seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces User interface The sub $50 smartphone App stores “A device or service “The explosion of “The first will be hamstrung if smartphones and phenomenally it lacks a good user the drive by mobile successful mobile interface (UI), no operators to get them content ecosystem matter how brilliant into people’s hands is predates Apple’s App the engineering creating value in the Store by many years Andrew Ladbrook David McQueen Jamie Moss Senior Analyst behind it or how Principal Analyst market. However, the Senior Analyst and was built by a appealing the content increasing clamor mobile operator, is. The user interface is becoming synonymous for smartphones will drive them into lower Japan’s NTT DoCoMo. The business model pursued with a user’s experience, and can make or break a price tiers, changing market dynamics. In most by DoCoMo with i-mode was not that different to device or service. emerging markets, PC/laptop prices are a barrier the one later adopted by Apple with the App Store: to Internet uptake and low-cost smartphones will a marketplace where all kinds of third parties Informa will be examining what makes a good increasingly play a significant role in such markets. could set up shop and sell their wares directly to UI for Internet services, device operating systems end users, giving a share of their takings to the and applications, across all screens. Best-of-breed We will produce case studies demonstrating what 'store' owner. examples will be highlighted, and a cross-sector impact low-cost smartphones will have on mobile analysis will determine if any one screen is lagging data uptake and also Internet penetration in key This coming year, we will be looking at the behind its peers.” markets. We will also analyze each operating ecosystem strategies of the various players system detailing how it can reach the $50 out there and at how operators’ content and threshold we expect from the handset vendors and application strategies are evolving in a desperate mobile operators.” bid to retain relevance.” > We organise 100+ market leading annual events including LTE World Series, Com World Series and IPTV World Forum. Our core services include exclusive access to the PowerPoint presentations delivered at all of these events. These papers provide unique insight into the > Our five-year smartphone forecasts include smartphone sales volume, distribution penetration by region and strategies, positioning and plans of your competitors operating system. Our robust methodologies and and customers. models are informed by deep qualitative understanding. > In 2012, our content and applications team will cover topics including mobile content and service value chains and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your decision-making and offer points for action. 21
  • 22. 2012 ReseARch AgendA Seizing new revenue opportunities
  • 23. seIZIng neW Revenue oppoRTunITIes R obust year-on-year revenue growth has become a fading memory for an industry which took double-digit growth for granted during the 1990s and the first half of the last decade. Consumers and businesses may be reaping the Connected Verticals and data. In sectors such as healthcare, utilities benefits of high-speed, widely-available broad- and automotive, operators are looking to provide band connectivity and new devices, but, for solutions and services that help to increase effi- telecoms operators, saturated markets, stiff com- ciencies and drive new revenue growth. petition and tough regulation are the day-to-day Emerging markets present clearer opportuni- realities that shape their business environment. ties than developed ones in both consumer and Innovation is proving elusive. Operators and business markets (although low ARPU levels TV companies are now competing in an over- and the high cost and low availability of broad- the-top world where smaller, nimbler, risk-taking band access means that new pricing and business companies are prepared to offer services to the models will need to be adopted). end user for free in the hope that they will either uncover a business model or a buyer before their funding runs out. The biggest single growth opportunity for operators today is selling data plans with smart- … a bigger opportunity lies in using phones. Postpaid markets already have high new technologies and platforms such smartphone penetration and the next wave will as cloud computing, Ethernet and see the adoption of $100-$200 smartphones in M2M to serve specific needs within both developed and emerging markets. Mobile Rural broadband connectivity has become an different small, medium and large broadband (dongles) is still a growing market but important policy initiative for many governments enterprises. a less attractive option than smartphones because and a new revenue stream for network operators of the heavy demands on the network placed by rolling out LTE in lower-frequency bands. many users. Beyond broadband connectivity, many of the In the consumer market, the falling cost of new revenue opportunities today sit in the busi- smartphones and the rollout of 3G networks ness and enterprise sector. Enterprise mobility is means that the Internet will reach hundreds of starting to gain momentum, driven by mobile millions of people for the first time over the next operators facing saturation in the consumer two to three years. The rollout of mobile and The biggest single growth opportunity market. But Informa Telecoms & Media believes fixed broadband services will also create tremen- for operators today is selling data that a bigger opportunity lies in using new tech- dous new opportunities in the business market plans with smartphones. nologies and platforms, such as cloud computing, and in the public sector where the mobile phone Ethernet and M2M, to serve specific needs within can provide a low-cost platform for the dissemi- different small, medium and large enterprises. nation of a range of services including education, The rollout of LTE is allowing operators to In the past, operators have tended to segment healthcare and payments.  offer higher speeds and a better quality of service. business users by number of employees. But a Many are also bundling in content such as music new approach is emerging that allows product or video with high-end price plans. Operators are and service differentiation based on industry eyeing connected devices as a potential new rev- type. Operators are now (slowly) starting to enue stream and the embedding of LTE in tablet develop vertical solutions using a combination of computers should help to increase the share of fixed and mobile technologies and platforms that devices that are sold with cellular price plans. go beyond the provision of traditional telephony 23
  • 24. 2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs Cloud Vertical markets Putting the “B” in the middle of B2C “Cloud computing “Telecom technology “Many of the windows offers unprecedented is enabling of opportunity for potential to touch radical business operators to develop ICT wallet share once transformation in consumer value-added unobtainable for the world’s largest services are closing as telecom firms. That’s industries. By OTT players with global Camille Mendler Sheridan Nye Mark Newman Principal Analyst because the cloud’s Senior Analyst connecting and Chief Research Officer reach and free-to- commercial model of managing formerly the-end-user business renting versus buying computing power, storage, isolated endpoints, technology suppliers are models exploit the potential of smartphones and software development tools and applications optimizing operations and creating whole new the mobile Internet. disrupts the traditional ICT supply chain.” business models in these sectors. “ There has long been talk of the so-called two- sided business model and operators are slowly but surely starting to realize the opportunity to provide mobile channel and network capabilities to commercial and public organizations. Examples include pharmaceutical companies that are looking to use the mobile channel to help them transition into health providers and applications developers that are talking to operators about using their billing capabilities to monetize their services. > Telecom Cloud Monitor is an analytical tool tracking the cloud-related activities of more than 90 operators > Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for and 150 vendors worldwide. The service is available as their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are Informa Telecoms & Media will produce case part of our Enterprise Verticals research offering which produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast is supplemented with best-practice case studies and team and 65 country and topic-facing analysts. studies of successful (and unsuccessful) B2B2C business model analysis. business models and identify those sectors which provide most short- and medium-term potential.” > In 2012, our operator strategy team will cover topics including the economics of carrier Wi-Fi, best practice in customer experience management and partnership strategies with OTT providers. Our analysis is designed to support your decision making and offer points for action. 24