L. Hunter Lovins delivered the keynote address at the Iowa Environmental Council's annual conference, "Finding Iowa's Way: Economic Solutions for a Healthier Environment," held October 4, 2012, in Des Moines.
2. Global Drivers of Change
• Loss of ecosystem services
• Carbon constrained world
• Economic instability
• Volatile energy prices
• Vulnerabilities
• Chindia
• The sustainability imperative
• Water
• Food
4. New Rule
If we insist on ruining the planet,
we have to stop claiming we’re
a “superior species”.
5. Nov 2011 study from IEA
April 2012 study from OECD
“Unless world leaders take immediate
and coordinated action, modern industry
will lock the world into a calamitous
temperature rise of up to six degrees C.
In such a world, demand for energy, food,
and water will overwhelm the planet”
6. Last year, a new record: 14 weather related
disasters with damages over $1 billion.
7. Hot enough for you? Iowa is experiencing first hand
why America’s decade of ignoring climate science is a
mistake.
Unless Iowa acts to capture the green economy, it
faces a grim prospect, both from the weather and from
an economy strangled by its fossil fuel past.
8. Iowa Ground Central
60% of the state is in
extreme drought.
80% of soil is
moisture-deficient.
Bushel of corn has
risen from $5.50 to $8.
9. Climate Change Impacts
U.S. corn production is
down 13%.
USDA predicts 3-10 %
increase in all food
prices.
Will cost $600 more for
the same food purchased
this year, for a family of
four.
10.
11. Commodity price increases
Credit Suisse estimates that commodity
prices will increase 5% - 20% in the second
half of 2012
Every 1¢ rise in the price of gasoline =
$1billion lost in household purchasing power
What will this do to your business?
12. Food and Water Scarcity
1/3 of the world's cropland is losing its productivity
because it is losing its topsoil
More than
33 countries
face social
unrest due
to record
high food
prices.
14. Iowa Ground Central
Severe precipitation
events have increased
32% since 1960’s.
A 20% increase in
precipitation increases
soil erosion by 40%, if
not properly managed.
15. Iowa Ground Central
2008 flood, the City of
Cedar Rapids had to
pump raw sewage into
Cedar River.
Cedar Rapids was not
the only city forced to
close wastewater
operations.
16. Agriculture = Water Intensive
Agriculture
uses 70% of
world water
withdrawals
Competition
for water
resources is
increasing
17. Agriculture = Polluting
• According to the EPA,
agricultural practices are
responsible for 70% of
all pollution in U.S. rivers
and streams.
• In the US, 40% of rivers,
lakes, and coastal
waters are so
contaminated that they
are unfit for humans to
fish in, swim in, or drink.
18. Agriculture = Energy Intensive
In 1940 we produced 2.3
calories of food energy
for every calorie of fossil
fuel energy we used.
Now it takes 10 calories
of fossil-fuel energy to
produce a single calorie
of modern supermarket
food
19. 2012 had over 2,000 record-
shattering heat events
Every state in the nation experienced a record warm
daily temperature
20. Feb 2012 the UN released Resilient People,
Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing
The 22-member panel said a new blueprint for
growth and low-carbon prosperity must be
"mainstreamed" into economic policy as
quickly as possible
By 2030 the planet will need at least
50% more food,
45% more energy and
30% more water.
25. The science does not matter
Let’s assume that the climate sceptics
are right
Don’t go to the casino on those odds
If all that you care about is maximizing
profit, you will do exactly what you
would do if you were scared to death
about climate
28. The Carbon Disclosure Project
Institutional investors -
$78 trillion assets
Pushing FTSE top 500
companies to
disclose “investment-related”
GHG emissions
6% of leading companies deselect
suppliers who fail to manage carbon,
56% commit to do so in the future
29. 6,300 computers and monitors in sleep or standby mode
when not in use (24/7).
Leave machines on one evening a week for updates and
turn them off at the end of the work day: $700,000.
US companies waste $2.8 billion a year on 108 million
unused PCs. In 2009, these unused PCs will emit 20
million tons of carbon dioxide emissions – the impact of
4 million cars.
PC power costs are the largest single factor of IT energy
costs and can account for a quarter of the costs in a
modern office building.
30. “Ford Saves One Million Dollars...
By Shutting Off Computers”
Fast Company, 23 March 2010
Turning off one computer every night for a year saves $34
If 20 computers are left on in the evening and over the weekend,
the savings grow to $526 a year
31. 7M square feet DC with 500 Watt roof lights
evenly spaced every 10 feet. Half the floor
space was racks with boxes.
Most of this lighting was
either unnecessary or
redundant. Work areas
had task lighting at the
employee level.
Annual savings for
shutting off the lights...
$650,000.
33. Green buildings improve labor
productivity and worker health
Improving indoor air quality could save U.S.
businesses:
• $58 billion in avoided sick time each year,
• Another $200 billion earned in increased worker
performance.
34. Comparative Costs
in Large Office Buildings
Data from Building Owners and Managers Association: Electric Power
research Institute, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1991
35. Carbon War Room
Partnership between Lockheed Martin, Energi,
Barclays, and Ygrene to retrofit commercial real estate.
Will return $4 million in tax revenues for every $1 million
$10 million in economic activity generated and 60 jobs
created.
The $650 million program will bring its first two cities:
Sacramento and Miami 40,000 jobs created, $1 billion in
tax benefits, and at least $10 billion in increased
economic output
Will scale across US, as well as China.
36. Renewable Generation
Environment Iowa has shown how the state, now 85%
dependent on coal energy imported from out of town
could provide 100% of its needs from renewable Iowa
power, keeping jobs and money here.
37. Solar deployment – policy matters
California receives
70% more sunlight
for producing solar
energy than
Germany.
But Germany
installs 28 times
more solar electric
capacity every year
Will be 100%
renewable by 2050
38. The Economics of Feed-in Tariffs
Deutsche Bank Study: FiTs gave Germany the
lead in renewable energy production.
In first 4 years FiTs created 300,000 new jobs
FITs cut the unit cost of solar panels 30 percent in
2009 enough that they could pay for themselves
within five to seven years, and reach grid parity
(costing the same as grid electricity) by 2013.
39. FiTs drove German economic regeneration, enabling
Germany to pay its own citizens to produce, install
and maintain their own renewable energy systems,
instead of buying imported fossil fuels. The program
cost of €2 - 3 per month ($50 to customers’ electricity
bills each year) to electricity bills in Germany (a total
of €8.6 billion.)
Deutsche Bank: The savings created by FiTs exceeded
total cost of payments made by households.
Had customers bought electricity from conventional
generation and paid the costs of fossil fuel generation
Germans would have paid over €9.4 billion.
40. Iowa Leading the Way
Iowa is a National Leader
in Renewable Energy
• 20% of energy from sun, wind, and biofuels
• 200 wind companies with 7,000 full-time jobs
The Green Economy Unleashed
• By 2020:
• Create 20,000 new jobs
• Save consumers $1 billion annually
41. Renewable Benefits
+ Jobs
+
+$
Iowa’s renewable resources could provide 17 times
more energy than the state needs
It would help the average Iowa family save $400
It would create at least 3,000 new jobs each year!
42. Jobs Growth
Since 2006 jobs in renewables and environment
have grown 56.8% vs Internet: 29.8%
California's “green economy" grew 3X as fast as
traditional economy between 2008 and 2009 –
174,000 employed in green economy – 26% are
manufacturing jobs vs 9% in total economy.
In US green jobs grew 9.1% 1998 – 2007, 2 ½ X
faster than all job growth.
43. Early stage companies are the
economic future of the US.
Kauffman research shows that startups
are responsible for:
• Almost all net job growth in the U.S.
economy for all but 7 years – from 1977
to now
• The top 1% of highest growth startups
generate almost 10% of all new jobs
44. Sonoma County Energy
Independence Program
8.4% increase in construction-related jobs in
Sonoma County between January, 2009 and
September, 2009
3.0% job decline in Napa County
July-August 2009:
$5.6 million in SCEIP projects
500 new construction jobs reported
45. Dardesheim, Germany - 100% renewable
Wildpoldsried produces
321% more energy than it
uses; makes $5.7 million
each year
46. 1 MW/ week = 15.6 GW
In 2010 – 21 GW 2011
SCE: 250 MW plant on roofs around So California
$875 million to complete (comparable coal plant ~$800 million)
49. Wind is the 2nd fastest growing
energy supply technology in the
world:
37 GW in 2009, 32 GW 2010
Now 237 GW, 40 GW new 2011
Costs less than coal in good sites
And check
out China
50. China has replaced • If China’s economy
the United States as grows at its prior rate
the world's leading • If it uses resources as
consumer of most inefficiently as the U.S.
basic commodities,
• By 2030 China will need
like oil, grain, coal,
99 million barrels of oil a
and steel.
day.
The world currently
produces 80+ million
barrels per day and may
never produce more.
51. China Renewable Investments
• China’s State Administration of
Energy (SAE), is creating a new
energy blueprint
• Total investments for renewable
energy by 2020
– $911 billion for efficiency and
renewables
– 10.6b million new jobs
– Generate several trillion
dollars in new GDP
52. Rise of Solar in China
China accounted for China’s efforts to
half of the worlds dominate renewable
production in solar energy technologies
raise the prospect that
energy.
the West may someday
trade its dependence
Producing panels as on oil from the Mideast
low as $1.04 a watt. for a reliance on solar
panels, wind turbines
and other gear
manufactured in China.
54. Rizhao, China
City of 3 million
– 99% use
solar hot water
5,000
manufacturers
of simple solar
water heaters
Now looking at
export
55. Baoding, China Mayor Yu Quin:
“Polluting first
and cleaning up
later is very
expensive. So we
chose renewable
energy to replace
traditional
industry.”
200 renewable
energy
companies
replace cars and
textiles
56. R. James Woolsey’s solar
powered plug-in-hybrid
has a bumper sticker
reading:
“Osama bin Ladin hates
my car.”
57. Fragile supply lines – for every 24 convoys a
marine comes home in a body bag
Military uses
10.6 million
gallons/day
Largest fuel user in the world
59. Great Green Fleet
Navy Secretary Ray Mabus: "We simply have to
figure out a way to get American-made, home-grown
fuel that is stably priced, that is competitive with oil,"
Deploy a biofuel-burning carrier
MH-60 chopper flying group by 2016 and require the
on 50-50 algae/ grease Department of the Navy to get half
biofuel and petroleum of its energy from alternative
fuel sources by 2020.
60. USS Ford frigate used 25,000 gallons to sail 12,000 miles from
Everett Wash to San Diego – no difference in performance
Solyazyme and Dynamic Fuels
61. F-18 Green Hornet flying on Sustainable Fuels’ oil seed fuel/ jet
fuel mix – 60 – 75 million barrels of jet fuel/ year
62.
63. European/Middle East Smartgrid
Power equal to the total
present usage of the
EUMENA region power
could be generated
covering less than 0.3% of
the Sahara Desert with
CSP plants. DESERTEC
Foundation proposes a
supergrid from Iceland to
Arabian peninsula, from
Baltic to west coast of
Africa, in which offshore
wind and wave farms, photovoltaic sites, tidal stream
generators, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric stations
would unite with desert CSP arrays to meet the region's actual
daily and hourly demands over an HVDC network
65. “By the way, in 2011, GE's wind turbines achieved RE
less than C for the first time. It really happened. Now
we're designing super efficient and flexible combined
cycle gas turbines that will compliment renewable
intermittency, while we work on energy storage
technologies. Solar is next...”
67. Ray Anderson
What is the business
case for ending life
on earth?
68. Interface "Mission Zero"Metrics
-Net GHG emissions down 82% in absolute tonage-
Fossil fuel usage is down 60%-
Water usage is down 75%-
Renewables and recycled materials up 25%-
Renewable energy is up 27%-
Diverted 74,000 tons of used carpet from landfills-
Goal: 0 impact, 0 footprint - ½ way to goal today.
Anticipate will make goal in 2020.
Best thing for business: Costs down $4.5M
Sales increased by 2/3 Profits up 2X-
Paid for all costs for transformation of Interface.
69.
70. Harvard Business Review
“Sustainability isn’t the burden on bottom lines
that many executives believe it to be. It can
lower your costs and increase your revenues.
That’s why sustainability should be a
touchstone for all innovation.
In the future, only companies that make
sustainability a goal will achieve competitive
advantage. That means rethinking business
models as well as products, technologies and
processes.”
Why Sustainability is Now the Key Driver of Innovation
71. Sustainability pays
Companies in the Dow Jones sustainability Index
outperform the general market
Goldman Sachs report July 2007: Companies
that are leaders in environmental, social and
governance (ESG) policies outperform
competitors in stock performance—by an
average of 25%.
72% of the companies on the DJSI outperformed
industry peers
72. Refusal to report quarterly
The ultimate cost of short-termism was the
financial crisis of 2008-9. 'Too many
investors have become short-term gamblers:
the more fluctuations in share price they can
engineer, the better it is for them. It is not
good for the companies or for society, but it
is influencing the way firms are being run, all
the same.... To drag the world back to sanity,
we need to know why we are here. The
answer is: for consumers, not shareholders.
If we are in synch with consumer needs and
the environment in which we operate, and
take responsibility for society as well as for
our employees, then the shareholder will
Paul Polman
also be rewarded'
73. Unilever’s
Sustainable Living Plan:
Cut environmental impacts in
half by 2020,
Source 100% of agricultural
materials sustainably, and
Help more than 1billion people
improve their health and well-
being.
74. Sustainable Agriculture
• Build healthy topsoil
• Minimize use of fossil fuels
• Plant crops suitable to
local climate
• Use a whole systems
approach to farm
management
75. Top Menu Trends of 2012
Survey by The National Restaurant Association
#1 Locally sourced meats and seafood
#2 Locally grown produce
#4 Hyper-local sourcing
#5 Sustainability
#8 Locally produced wine and beer
#12 Farm/estate-branded ingredients
76. Carbon Innovators Lead
Companies that lead in climate-related innovation give
higher financial performance (five-year return on equity)
Three indexes identified the most resilient, most
innovative and best positioned companies to gain
competitive advantage in the new low-carbon economy
Ranking the top 350 US companies, with a combined
market cap of $350 trillion, on their climate innovation
and carbon management programmes, shows a positive
correlation between the financial performance of
companies and their ability to successfully implement
disruptive market innovations related to climate change.
78. Calera
Calera is piloting
making cement in the
same way that coral
reefs make limestone:
CO2 and seawater.
Carbon negative
process.
Vinod Khosla is a lead
investor
80. Method is making its bottles out of recycled
plastic –
25% of it harvested from the oceans
81. Synthetic biology could create buildings that inhale carbon
dioxide, and control temperature without air conditioning –
Dr Rachel Armstrong, senior TED Fellow, Director of Avatar
82. I am a professor of a discipline
that did not exist when I went to
college
84. The best way to predict the
future is to invent it
85. His goal:
To make the world work
for 100% of humanity, in
the shortest possible time,
through spontaneous
cooperation without
ecological offense or
disadvantage of anyone.”
87. The rule of no realm is mine but all worthy things that are in
peril as the world now stands, those are my care. And for my
part I shall not wholly fail if anything passes through this night
that can still grow fair and bear fruit and flower again in the
days to come. For I too am a steward, did you not know?
88. In the end, it was two rather ordinary, playful,
unassuming hobbits who undertook to save the world.
Despite their fears, they took the future of the world on
their shoulders, and all the wizards and kings and
warriors could only play a supportive role.
93. DONG energy and Better Place
$12,000 for a family-sized all-
electric sedan: Renault Fluence
EV. Drive as much as you want.
Pay $300/ month (less if you
drive fewer miles). Emit no CO2
or other pollutants. And help the
world break its addiction to oil
Better Place has ordered 100,000 cars from Renault. Agassi
plans to order another 100,000 cars in the first half of 2012.
Agassi has agreements with governments to roll out Better
Place in northern California, in the urban regions of Australia
and in Hawaii. France, too, has made a major commitment to
electric vehicles, one reason why Renault says it will launch four
electric car models in the next several years.
95. Math is the low hanging fruit
of online education
Advanced
Linear chains of
Food
Chain
of
Topics
knowledge
Constant over time
Basic
96.
97. Hundreds of Topics for ‘Micro-Lesson’ Nodes – 12-15 min
advanced / research / just plain
core principles / foundations interesting case studies
98. Online Sustainability Education is a Different Beast
(interdisciplinary, dynamic, ecology of knowledge)
Sustainable
Ci8es
Advanced
Sustainable
Well
Being
Human
microbiome
and
virome
Buildiing
Design
and
Human
Health
Carbon
Nega8ve
Blgs
and
Houses
Made
of
Food
Web
of
Topics
Meat
RooBop
Farming
RooBop
Biodiversity
Systems
Theory
Principles
Scaling
Theory
of
Sustainable
Ci8es
Climate
Capitalism
Principles
Natural
Capitalism
Principles
Efficiency
Principles
Redesigning
Manufacturing
Principles
Complexity
Theory
Principles
Network
Theory
Principles
Art
and
Innova8on
Emergence
in
Complex
Systems
Economic
Complexity
and
Sustainable
Growth
Biomimicry
Principles
Math
Lessons
for
Locavores
What
is
Sustainability
Sustainable
Building
Design
Principles
Global
Homogeniza8on
Jevons
Efficiency
Paradox
Art
and
Urban
Renewal
the
Crea8ve
Class
New
Metrics
for
Sustainable
Economies
Basic
Mul8Family
Housing
Crea8ve
Green
Mobility
Crowd
Sharing
99. Oceans
2
degrees
from
coral
reefs
Other
Tracks
Calera
–
cement
from
CO2
Coral
reefs
Climate
Change
bleaching
Network Structure of Classes Stimulates Large
Node
=
Many
Links
Cross-disciplinary Thinking
100. Join the conversation online:
facebook.com/madroneproject
Twitter.com/madroneproject
What do you want to know?
What do you want to study?
101. Sustainable Agriculture
In 1940 we produced 2.3
calories of food energy
for every calorie of fossil
fuel energy we used.
Now it takes 10 calories
of fossil-fuel energy to
produce a single calorie
of modern supermarket
food
103. Sustainable Agriculture
The overall resource
efficiency of our
farming operations has
decreased even while
we have produced
more food.
What would a
sustainable agriculture
system look like?
104. Sustainable Agriculture
• Build healthy topsoil
• Minimize use of fossil fuels
• Plant crops suitable to
local climate
• Use a whole systems
approach to farm
management
105. Economic Recovery
"Agriculture is the foundation on
which recovery from the global recession
and financial and food price crisis will be
built, especially for developing countries,
which derive much of their income from
agricultural production,”
– Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of
Agriculture
106. In Pursuit of Wealth
"Agriculture ... is our wisest
pursuit, because it will in the
end contribute most to real wealth … and
happiness.”
-Thomas Jefferson to George Washington
107. “To plant a garden is to believe
in Tomorrow”
