Presentation given at University of Siegen conference on "Social Web: Towards Networked Political Protests."

1. Networked Political Protests Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University

2. 1. Examples…

3. DigiActive

4. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive

5. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive

6. Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive

7. 2. Question…

8. ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?

9. 3. Previous studies…

10. Data-driven

11. Data-driven Eyck 2001

12. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008

13. Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008 ?

14. 4. Data…

15. Parameters

16. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls

17. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year

18. Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes

19. Graphs

20. Graphs Protests

21. Graphs Protests Internet

22. Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles

23. Summary Stats N = 396

24. 5. Methods…

25. Regressions

26. Regressions y i,t =  i +  1 Int i,t +  2 Mob i,t +  3 Land i,t +  4 Autoc i,t +  5 Unemp i,t +  6 GDP i,t +  i,t

27. Regressions Observed vs Projected

28. Observed vs Projected F i = y obs,i - y model,i

29. 6. Findings…

30. Results*

31. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level

32. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant

33. Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other variables not significant

34. Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155

35. 6. Conclusion & Next

36. Thoughts Internet.gov?

37. Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods?

38. Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods? Field research

39. Thank You [email_address] www.iRevolution.wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier