1. Agile Estimation
Part II
Mel Rosso-Llopart
Carnegie Mellon University
Rosso-Llopart ©2013
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2. The estimation Game for Agile
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Presented by Mike Cohn in the book “Agile
Estimation”
The process Delphi process is modified to
constrain the number of choices for each
estimate
Instead of allowing an infinite number of
choices a integer set of relative values is used to
evaluate the relative size of an item
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3. The estimation Game for Agile - 2
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The sequence of choices people can use come
from the Fibonacci sequence
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 100*
You select a relative value from the sequence to
represent your best value for the estimate
You cannot choose 2.5, or 5.3, you must choose
2 or 3 and 5 or 8 relatively
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4. The estimation Game for Agile - 3
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The values can represent size, days, or whatever
you are currently estimating in.
– You can multiply if you wanted Kilograms versus
Grams
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All that the “Game” does is it makes you say
whether something is relatively greater or lesser
than another item.
Then when you get actual values you can give a
value to your estimate.
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5. Exercise for Agile estimation game
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We will rank a number of items by relative
comparisons using the sequence
I will give you one actual value for the sequence
We will see if you can properly sort the items
based on your estimates.
If you can sort them, then you can properly
estimate them given some actual values.
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6. Planning Poker
Estimation technique that values the conversation that occurs
during the estimation process
Variant of wideband delphi
Distributed team members: planningpoker.com
(http://agilereckoning.com/ if poker is blocked)
For Pivotal tracker: http://poker.stackbuilders.com/
There are other sites that can be used
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9. Exercise 2
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Let’s use the new rules
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10. Exercise – Individually (No talking)
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Rank by Official weight the following items
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a) Basket Ball
b) Golf ball
c) American Baseball
d) Tennis ball
e) Cricket Ball
f) Soccer Ball – Official weight is: 410- 450 grams
14-16 ounces
g) Billiard Ball
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11. Exercise – As a team
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Same rules as general Wideband Delphi, but
you can only use Planning Poker numbers.
Rank by Official weight the following items
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a) Basket Ball
b) Golf ball
c) American Baseball
d) Tennis ball
e) Cricket Ball
f) Soccer Ball – Official weight is: 410- 450 grams
14-16 ounces
g) Billiard Ball
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12. Exercise 3
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Planning poker again
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13. Exercise – Individually (No talking)
•Rank by Distance from New York, NY to the
these cities:
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a) Singapore
b) Tehran
c) Moscow – Distance in Kilometers is: 7511 KM
d) Sydney
e) Washington DC
f) Sao Paulo, Brazil
g) Honolulu, Hawaii
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14. Exercise – As a team
Same rules as general Wideband Delphi, but you
can only use Planning poker numbers.
• Rank the cities by Distance from New York, NY:
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a) Singapore
b) Tehran
c) Moscow – Distance in Kilometers is: 7511 KM
d) Sydney
e) Washington DC
f) Sao Paulo, Brazil
g) Honolulu, Hawaii
Rosso-Llopart ©2013
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15. Exercise – As a team
Same rules as general Wideband Delphi, but you
can only use Planning poker numbers.
• Rank the cities by Distance from New York, NY:
_
_
_
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_
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a) Singapore
b) Tehran
c) Moscow – Distance in Kilometers is: 7511 KM
d) Sydney
e) Washington DC
f) Sao Paulo, Brazil
g) Honolulu, Hawaii
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16. Answers are:
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17. Discussion time
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Was there a difference between the methods?
 Wide band Delphi VS “Planning poker”
Which one might you use more easily?
Will you use Wideband Delphi, either the
original or the Agile game the next time you
have to make an estimate?
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Why or why not?
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18. Questions
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19. References
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Mike Cohn, “Agile Estimation and Planning”,
Prentice Hall, 2006.
Watts Humphrey, “Introduction to the Personal
Software Process”, Addison-Wesley, 1997.
Steve McConnell, “Software Estimation
Demystifying the Black Art”, Microsoft press,
2006.
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