Climate change, ecotoxicology and flood resiliency in New York
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A review of climate science basics, climate change in NY, ecotoxicology and flooding, communities working toward resiliency, flood adaptation and how to get involved. Presented to NYU Ecotoxicology graduate level course, 2014 Audience: graduate students
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Climate change, ecotoxicology and flood resiliency in New York
- 1. Climate change, ecotoxicology and flood resilience in New York NYU Ecotoxicology Class November 11, 2014 Libby Murphy NYS Department of Environmental Conserva5on
- 2. Hudson River Estuary Program Core Mission • Ensure clean water • Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their habitats • Provide water recrea5on and river access • Adapt to climate change • Conserve world-‐famous scenery
- 3. Roadmap • Climate science basics • Climate change in NY • Ecotoxicology and flooding • Communities working towards resiliency • Flood adaptation • How to get involved
- 4. Basics of climate science
- 5. What is climate? • Longer-term average weather • Part of larger planetary system • “You dress for the weather and build a house for the climate” • “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
- 6. The Climate System & GH Effect
- 7. What does climate change mean?
- 8. Why is the climate changing?
- 9. How do we know? • Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2 • Instrumental record since 1850 • Rapid warming since 1910
- 10. What are the impacts of climate change?
- 11. Climate change in New York
- 12. Changes to our climate Increasing temperatures • Rising sea level • Changing precipitation patterns
- 13. Increasing temperatures Since 1970: • Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F • US annual average temp. up 1.8°F • New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F • New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F
- 14. y = 0.0262x -‐ 1.346 R² = 0.37491 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Annual Mean Temperature (F) Year Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing
- 16. Sea level rise Historic: • 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years
- 17. Changing precipitation patterns • 74% Increase in heavy downpours between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009 • More variability and volatility
- 18. 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Annual Precipita8on (inches) Year Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable
- 19. So how will this affect us? Ø Heat waves Ø Short-term drought Ø Flooding
- 20. Heat waves
- 21. Short-term drought • Higher temperatures, increased evapora5on • Reduc5on in steady rain and snow precipita5on
- 22. Flooding • Intense precipita5on • Sea-‐level rise • Intense storms
- 23. Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson hp://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper
- 24. HRECOS
- 25. Ecotoxicology • Oil spills • Sediment • Ecosystem • WWTP • Wetland migration
- 26. We need to productively adapt to our changing climate • Climate adaptation = reducing the effects of climate change • Ecologically enhanced and natural solutions provide additional benefits
- 27. Resilience
- 30. Fortify Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY
- 31. Elevated structures with flood gates, Hamburg, Germany Accommodate Floodable park concept, NYC
- 32. Riverwalk Park, Tarrytown Accommodate: Use green infrastructure to reduce water energy Brooklyn Bridge Park
- 33. Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY Local example of accommodation
- 34. Strategic Relocation Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold Spring Wetland with walkway concept, Toronto, Canada
- 35. Current Marsh Zone Future Marsh Zone
- 36. Redesign: Win-Win Engineering • lower cost • maintains ecosystem services • adapts to sea level rise
- 38. Sandy and Irene: two different storms • Irene: extreme rain event • Sandy: extreme storm surge at height of spring tide • The Perfect Storm? Irene plus Sandy
- 39. Hurricane Irene (2011) Hurricane Sandy (2012)
- 41. Kingston waterfront low 8de E Strand in Kingston
- 42. Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (4’) at low 8de 4’ of Sea Level Rise
- 43. Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), armored protec8on Example of Fortify
- 44. Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings Example of Accommodate
- 45. Kingston waterfront Simula8on: elevated sea level (low 8de), strategic retreat Example of Strategic Relocation
- 48. Year 2100, With High Sea Level Rise and a 100-‐year Storm 1% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year Total Damage for this Event: $39.9 Million Damage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $27.6 Million • Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise • Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge Cumula8ve Expected Damages by 2100 With High Sea Level Rise = $126 Million
- 49. 100 Year Storm in 2060 Buildings Damaged by Storm Surge from this Single Event (Height of Bar indicates rela5ve damage amount) Buildings Permanently Inundated due to Sea Level Rise by this Year, if No Ac5on is Taken Extent of Flooding from this Event COAST: cost benefit tool
- 51. You can get involved • We need many policy makers, scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and much more • We need people involved in local government • We need people making smart decisions day to day
- 52. Recap • The global average temp is rising • Climate change is the regional and local impacts • Our climate is changing more rapidly in NY • Flooding is serious risk to Hudson River communities • Flooding poses eco toxicology risks • Adapting to flooding and becoming resilient is our goal • Communities are already stepping up as leaders • You can get involved
- 53. Questions? Thank you. Libby Murphy Hudson River Estuary Program Phone: (845) 256-‐3016 Email: Elizabeth.murphy@dec.ny.gov NYS Department of Environmental Conserva5on