High Alpha welcomed Dave Knox, Managing Director of WPP Ventures and Chief Marketing Officer for Rockfish, a WPP-owned Digital Innovation Partner, as our featured guest at our April Speaker Series. Dave discussed themes from his book, Predicting the Turn, and how startups can leverage enterprise relationships.

1. Predicting the Turn
Dave Knox, WPP Ventures, @daveknox
HIGH ALPHA SPEAKER SERIES
#HighAlphaIdeas Thanks to our partners at

2. PREDICTING THE TURN
D A V E K N O X

3. V S

4. V S

5. Digital
Marketing
Digital
Business Models
V S

6. Now it’s
about
managing disruption.
It used to be about
fighting over market
share.

7. Now it’s
digital as a model.
It used to be
digital as media.

8. Now it’s about
infinite shelves &
free shipping.
It used to
be about
shelf space.

9. “There is a dramatic leveling of the
playing field. The advantages of scale
that guaranteed success in the post-war
era just don’t matter very much when
advertising is cheap, shelf space is
infinite, and shipping is free.”
The State of Technology at the End of 2016

11. T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R

12. I
Venture
as R&D
II
Dominos
III
Total
Available
Market
IV
Market
Intelligence

13. I
Venture
as
R&D
II. Dominos III. Total Available Market IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D

14. I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

15. II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D
4.3B
15B

16. II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence
PhD and top technical talent are
increasingly looking to startups for the
opportunity to be part of the next big idea.
III. Total Available MarketI. Venture as R&D

17. II
DOMINOS
I. Venture as R&D IV. Market IntelligenceII. Dominos III. Total Available Market

18. 29 Dominos
I. Venture as R&D IV. Market Intelligence
Lorne Whitehead
III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

19. IV. Market IntelligenceI. Venture as R&D
The speed of change is always
accelerating. And the dominos
will continue to fall closer and
closer to your bottom line.
III. Total Available MarketII. Dominos

20. III
Total
Available
Market
I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

21. I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market Intelligence
1920 2016
III. Total Available Market

22. “Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a
$ybn industry is unambitious — great
companies change the y, not the x.”
Benedict Evans - “Ways to Think About Market Size”
I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

23. IV
Market
Intelligence
I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

24. Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings
2010 2011 2012 2013
I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos IV. Market IntelligenceIII. Total Available Market

25. I. Venture as R&D II. Dominos
“Develop a sense of how and when
the future will happen, and share
that foresight with key stakeholders
throughout the corporation. The
ability to see the future of your
industry before it happens.”
Scott Lenet - co-founder of Touchdown Ventures
III. Total Available Market IV. Market Intelligence

26. T H E T U R N
How do you Predict the Turn?

27. “We all know that if you swing for the
fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but
you’re also going to hit some home runs.
The difference between baseball and
business, however, is that baseball has a
truncated outcome distribution…
Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

28. …When you swing, no matter how well you
connect with the ball, the most runs you
can get is four. In business, every once in a
while, when you step up to the plate, you
can score 1,000 runs.”
Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

29. # T H E T U R N
Innovation
Driven
Acquisition
Invest
in Change
Partners
in Innovation
Disrupt
the Disruptors

30. “You can fight the end and that will probably
not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge that
this is happening. This is real, serious, and
going to change your world.”
Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
John Zimmer - President and co-founder, Lyft
# T H E T U R N

31. Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the DisruptorsInnovation Driven Acquisition
# T H E T U R N
MapMyFitness
Endomondo
MyFitnessPal

32. “We invest on the side of change.”
Marc Andreessen
Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

33. Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

34. Partners in Innovation
“Startups are like water. They will take
the easiest path down the hill.”
Phin Barnes - First Round Capital
Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

35. Partners in InnovationInnovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

36. “Everybody talks about disruption until you
actually f***ing disrupt something and then
everybody freaks the f*** out.”
Shane Smith - Founder of Vice Media
Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

37. Innovation Driven Acquisition Invest in Change Partners in Innovation Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

38. C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R
V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H O U S E

39. "The sooner you stop fighting the
present, the sooner you can get to
work on figuring out the future."
David Heinemeier Hansson - Creator of Ruby on Rails