Presentation on a model developed for simulating the spread of the Emerald Ash Borer in New York State

1. A Spatial Model of
Emerald Ash Borer
Spread in New York
State
Herb Susmann
Introduction to GIS
12/9/12

2. Introduction
• Invasive species
• Highly destructive
• Spread by insect flight, human activities
• Less than 1% of New York forests infested
• 700 million trees at risk

3. http://datcpservices.wisconsin.gov/eab/images/eabhome.jpg
http://www.emeraldashborer.info/images/EABadultsideview.jpg

4. http://www.bauermeistertree.com/uploads/8/5/1/2/8512477/6713457_orig.jpg
http://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eablarva1.jpg

5. http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/content_images/ash_borer.jpg

6. http://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eabquarmap.jpg

7. Research Question
Can we predict how the emerald ash borer will spread across
New York State?

8. The Model
• Simulates EAB Spread
• Infested cells have a chance of infecting nearby cells
• Can spread long distances to campgrounds

9. Month 1

10. Month 2

11. Month 3

12. Month 4

13. Infection Probabilities
•
Insect Flight
Moving Firewood

14. Data
• Population – Price Data
• Ash Basal Area – US Forest Service
• Campgrounds – Multiple Online Sources
• 2012 Infested Area – DEC Map

16. TIF Raster TIF Raster TIF Raster
Model
TIF Raster
ArcMap

17. Year 0

18. Year 1

19. Year 2

20. Year 3

21. Year 4

22. Year 5

23. Year 6

24. Year 7

25. Year 8

26. Year 9

27. Year 10

29. Future Work
• Integrate more sources of spread
• Collect more data
• Expand to other invasive species