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MarketShare
SECOND QUARTER 2011




A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL
REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND
August 2011
TABLE OF
CONTENTS


                WELCOME TO MarketShare                                      1

                RESEARCH METHODOLOGY                                       2

                OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY                                   3

                MARKET SUMMARIES

                      Vancouver – Downtown                                 4
                      Vancouver – West                                     5
                      Vancouver – East                                     6
                      Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen                      7
                      Burnaby/New Westminster                              8
                      North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver        9
                      Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody   10
                      Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows            11
                      Surrey Central/North Delta                           12
                      South Surrey/White Rock                              13
                      Cloverdale/Langley                                   14

                WHAT TO WATCH                                              15




SECOND QUARTER 2011
WELCOME TO
MarketShare


As our team worked through the process of creating the                           Finally, having worked in real estate most of my career I have had the
                                                                                 privilege of working in and living in Vancouver while simultaneously being
latest edition of MarketShare the media was buzzing
                                                                                 involved in projects throughout the world. I appreciate the benefit of
with stories on the US debt ceiling crisis and the global
                                                                                 having a global perspective informed by rich and ongoing dialogue with
economy - I think I have definitely had enough CNN for                           my global colleagues in the business. My colleagues continue to be
the summer.                                                                      impressed with our market and offerings and continue to be proactive in
                                                                                 promoting Vancouver projects in Asia with a strong focus in China. Our
The US is still a major global economic force and continues to draw more
                                                                                 long term view is that this market will be sustainable for the foreseeable
than its share of attention and concern when storms occur. However, the
                                                                                 future and we are investing in infrastructure to support this view. We
number of conflicting view points out there with respect to the seriousness
                                                                                 have commenced work on a website in China that will feature Canadian
of the situation and the probable impacts create a sea of confusion. What
                                                                                 properties with an emphasis on the Vancouver and Toronto markets. In
does seem certain is this: there are significant economic problems in the US
                                                                                 addition, we are also developing a newsletter and electronic magazine
that will have to be addressed in the coming years. Will it affect our market?
                                                                                 which will showcase select Vancouver properties and be distributed to
It may have a short term effect on some buyers’ confidence but overall
                                                                                 our database as well as our immigration and banking partners. We are
unless there is a complete collapse the impact on our market will be
                                                                                 also establishing a Private Buyer’s Service abroad to coordinate the
minimal. On the other hand, if there were similar challenges in Asia and
                                                                                 interest we are generating and help funnel these prospective buyers to
China in particular we would see a negative effect on our local market.
                                                                                 projects locally. These investments will be leveraged by our existing
In my view, there is no reason to believe Chinese immigration and buying         international clients and will be offered more broadly in the future.
won’t continue to influence our market for the foreseeable future. It would
                                                                                 We are in uncertain times globally, but have a real estate market locally
take a very severe turn in government policy towards immigration to negate
                                                                                 that is very much envied. Our long term view of this market remains
this market trend. Since we have been producing MarketShare demand
                                                                                 unchanged…”we wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.”
from this market has continued to increase pricing in select markets.
However, this demand has primarily impacted a limited number of sub              I hope you are enjoying your summer and taking time to appreciate family
markets in the Lower Mainland. There is continued demand for all product         and friends. And, as always I hope this edition of MarketShare is
types in Vancouver - West, Richmond and Metrotown and for detached               enjoyable and informative. We welcome your thoughts and opinions.
homes and townhome product in South Surrey.

From an overall market perspective the lower mainland market continues to
impress. I must admit upon reading the data collected on the past quarter’s
sales performance my first instinct was to check it again. The pace of sales     Greg Ashley
was simply astounding. To date nearly 80 percent of last years total volume
                                                                                 PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER,
has been achieved. Congratulations to all the developers who enjoyed this
                                                                                 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING
success. We know full well the countless hours that go into making a project
a success. Incidentally, the impact of these successes in many areas like
Metrotown warrant additional study independent of the broader market area
they encompass, i.e. Burnaby/New Westminister. As development evolves in
these “micro” communities the gap in pricing and product offering may
vastly change in contrast to the surrounding areas. This trend may alter
how we need to view the market and produce this report.




SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                           1
RESEARCH
Methodology


Urban Analytics (UAI) is the source for analytical                                 CONTEMPLATED MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA
                                                                                   UAI also continuously monitors new multi-family developments being
interpretation of relevant real estate market data, trends
                                                                                   contemplated in the various markets in the Lower Mainland to determine
and strategic recommendations. Our client-focused
                                                                                   the level of potential new supply in each area. For the purposes of the
service model determines the information required,                                 MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various municipal planning
then collects and interprets the data in a timely manner                           departments along with developers (and/or their representatives) of
enabling clients to make informed strategic decisions.                             proposed new developments to determine the anticipated timing of their
                                                                                   approval and marketing launch.
Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate
data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver           MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALE

Lower Mainland.                                                                    The resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess
                                                                                   demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI
The methodology used to collect the data was as follows:                           closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to
                                                                                   identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the
GENERAL PARAMETERS
                                                                                   breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less
Vancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to
                                                                                   than helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends
Aldergrove. At the present time, we have excluded Abbotsford, Chilliwack,
                                                                                   studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less
and Mission. And, given the focus on the multi-family market we have
                                                                                   than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to
excluded single family home sales from our data collection efforts
                                                                                   newer product (i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the
MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALES                                         new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and
UAI takes a dynamic approach to collecting multi-family new home sales             potentially skew the data towards a specific type of product available in a
data. The primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to        small number of specific buildings/projects. In all instances active sales
each project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales      range quoted in tables is defined as “The active sales range in which 75
information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine           percent of sales of this product type occurred”.
additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and
active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is     We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’

defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this   analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.

product type occurred”.




                                                                                   Michael Ferreira
                                                                                   PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.




SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                              2
OVERALL – SUMMARY
VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

Sales of multi-family residential real estate rapidly accelerated in the Second    overall compared to the First Quarter of 2011. However in comparison to the
Quarter of 2011. A total of 4,839 units were sold in the Second Quarter of 2011    Second Quarter of 2010 active listings are down approximately 13 percent
a dramatic 85 percent increase from the same period in 2010 and surpassing         on aggregate even with a 9 percent increase in townhome listings taken into
the most active quarter in 2010 by a whopping 78 percent. When compared            account. Overall the first quarter sales were distributed across all product
with results in the First Quarter of 2011 sales were up 91 percent. To date,       types accordingly:
7,366 new units have been sold or 82 percent of last year’s total volume.
                                                                                                                  HIGH RISE       LOW RISE       TOWNHOME         TOTALS

New high profile projects in Vancouver - Downtown, Vancouver - West,                Total Sales                     1,009            644             872           2,525
Vancouver - East, Richmond, Metrotown, Coquitlam and New Westminster
                                                                                    Total Active Listings            1,929          1,466           1,404          4,799
drove the pace supported by steady absorptions of inventory in most areas.
Even with the number of launches inventory only increased approximately 12         THE QUARTER AHEAD:
percent over the First Quarter of 2011 to 7,752 units. This is approximately 36    Local and Asian investors were active at all high rise successes in the
percent more inventory than was on the market in the First Quarter of 2010.        Second Quarter of 2011. End users were very active at new low rise and
                                                                                   townhome offerings in more suburban areas such as New Westminster,
NEW HOME MARKET:
                                                                                   Burquitlam and South Surrey. This trend is expected to continue in the fall.
As indicated in the table below, in the Second Quarter of 2011, 56 percent of
sales occurred at high rise projects which is a 13 percent increase compared       Towards the end of the Second Quarter concerns about the market emerged
to the First Quarter of 2011 but a 7 percent decrease compared to the Second       based on launch results that were less than market expectations in a limited
Quarter of 2010. Low rise sales represented 27 percent of sales which is           number of locations, However, significant successes in the later portion of
down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Townhome sales formed the                June somewhat eased these concerns. That being said, recent economic
remaining 17 percent of total sales which decreased 11 per cent from the First     events in Europe and the US has resulted in a resurgence of “bubble” talk
Quarter of 2011 but only 1.5 percent less than Second Quarter 2010.                and developer sentiment seems more cautious than it otherwise might be on
                                                                                   the heels of such a strong quarter.
For the fifth consecutive quarter inventory has increased as developers
showed confidence and continued to bring new offerings to market. And,             The quarter ahead is typically the slowest quarter of the year as it
active projects increased again this quarter albeit by a moderate 9 percent to a   encompasses summer, a season during which investors tend to be less
total of 279.                                                                      active locally and with sales centre traffic slowing due to summer vacations.
                                                                                   That said, we do expect sales to meet or modestly exceed absorptions
Overall the second quarter performance was astounding across all product
                                                                                   achieved in the Third Quarter of 2010 - 1,649 new multi-family sales were
types as indicated in the following table:
                                                                                   generated in that period.

                                 HIGH RISE   LOW RISE    TOWNHOME      TOTALS

 Total Second Quarter Sales        2,729       1,313         797        4,839

 Total Inventory                   3,998       2,521        1,233       7,752

 Total No. Of Projects               90         94           95         279
                                                                                   W. Scott Brown
                                                                                   SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA
RESALE MARKET:
                                                                                   COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING
In the Second Quarter of 2011, an estimated 2,525 resale multi-family homes
were sold which represents a 61 percent increase over the First Quarter of         Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’
                                                                                   and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming
2011 and a 51 percent increase over the Second Quarter of 2010. More
                                                                                   editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’
specifically high rise sales were up 30 percent, low rise sales were up 76         commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.
percent and townhomes sales were up a whopping 80 percent. Active listings
for all product types were moderately up resulting in a 15 percent increase


SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                              3
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN
        The ‘green light’ rating for the Vancouver - Downtown market is a tentative one. As the two most recent
        project launches illustrated, success in this market area is largely dependent on whether a project appeals
        to the local investor and Chinese buyer group. While Concert sold nearly 80 percent of its SALT project at
        Hornby and Drake, Cressey achieved more modest absorptions at Maddox.


NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                 Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES
                                                                                                                                      t                          ll S
                                                                                                                                nS                             we
* The success of Concert’s SALT illustrates                                                                                 nm
                                                                                                                               a                   Bid
                                                                                                                      De                                                                                                         Me                                                               CANADA
                                                                                                                                                          St                                                                                                                                       PLACE
  that there is demand for condo units without                                                                                                        ero                                                               W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   lvi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       lle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Ge
                                                                                                                                                  ard




                                                                                    Projected Q3
                                                                                                                                                C            St                                                                  org
  parking as long as they are priced                                                                                                                    ola                                                                           ia
                                                                       Q2 release                                                                    Nic                                                                                   St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  St                                    Du
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Co
  appropriately relative to comparable units                                                       Ha                                                                                                      Bute                                              mu                               W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        rd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ov
                                                                                                      rw                                                                                                                                                        ir S                              Ha          a
                                                                                                        oo                                                                                  Ne                                                                                        W             sti           St Water
                                                                                                          dS                t                 t                                                                                                                         t                 Pe
                                                                                                              t        olaS                nS                                                   lso                                                                                          n          ng
  with parking.                                                                                                     Nic            ug
                                                                                                                                      hto
                                                                                                                                                                        Pe
                                                                                                                                                                                 Co
                                                                                                                                                                                       mo
                                                                                                                                                                                                   nS
                                                                                                                                                                                                       t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              de
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   rS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            sS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  t
                                                                                                                               o                   t                                                                                                                                                    t
                                                                                                                             Br               sS                           n   dra       xS
                                                                                                                                          rvi                                        ll S         t
                                                                                                                                      Je                       t                            t
* There are now six completed projects with a                                                                                                              teS
                                                     HIGH RISE                                                                                     Bu                                                                            St                                     St
                                                                                                                                                                                 St                                         rn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              by                                  rds                                                   K
  combined 76 units of standing inventory.                                                                                            Pa                                   low                                          Ho          St           St            ha            St
                                                                                                                                            cifi                        ur                                                     we         vil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              le         Ric                            t
                                                                                                                                                                   Th                                                                                               me
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       r             nS

                                                                                                                                   Be
                                                                                                                                                cS                                               St                          Ho       ran                                       ilto                         d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ho

                                                                                                                                     ac
                                                                                                                                                       t                                  d                                         G                                                      t             Blv
  The anticipated completion of Jameson              LOW RISE                                                                                                                          rar                                                                                    am ie S

                                                                                                                                          hA
                                                                                                                                                                                     ur                                                                                     H                         po
                                                                                                                                                                                B                                                                                                 mb y St          Ex

                                                                                                                                            ve
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ca         t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       at BC PLACE PLA
  House and The Beasley buildings could add to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            St         Da                                                    STADIUM
                                                     TOWNHOME                                                              DS
                                                                                                                             T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ur                   vie
                                                                                                                       RAR                                                                                         mo                             St                                              lvd
  this total.                                                                                                      BUR GE                                                                                         y                                                                        cB
                                                                                                                    BRID                                                                                       Se                                                                      cifi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Pa
                                                                                                                                                                          T
                                                                                                                                                           L            ES
                                                                                                                                                        VIL
* Launch timing for a number of contemplated                                                                                                         AN E
                                                                                                                                                   GR RIDG
                                                    Maps for illustrative purposes
                                                                                                                                                     B
  new projects is uncertain. These include          only. Locations are approximate.

  Townline’s 999 Seymour and Concord’s
                                                   NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
  Panorama.                                                                                        Q2 ACTIVE                          Q2                                          Q2                                             ACTIVE SALES
                                                          PRODUCT
                                                                                                   PROJECTS                          SALES                                      SUPPLY                                           RANGE ($ PSF)
* The Residences at Hotel Georgia is expected to
                                                          High Rise                                     18                          232                                          569                                                  $690 - 710
  have completed and merchandised display
                                                          Low Rise                                       n/a                              n/a                                          n/a                                                        n/a
  suites ready for viewing by early 2012.
                                                         Townhome                                        n/a                              n/a                                          n/a                                                        n/a


MLS RESALE - Q2 2011
                                                   MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                      ACTIVE LISTINGS                                         SOLD INVENTORY
* Sales have increased by 49 percent
                                                                                MONTHS                                                                 % OF TOTAL                                                                       AVG. DAYS               ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.          PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                               OF SUPPLY                                            #                    SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                                           $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ON MARKET                    (75% of sales)
                                                   High Rise            554                             4.6                   361                                  100                                $709                                      37             $370,000 - 855,000
* Listings have decreased by 36 percent
  compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.          Low Rise                   n/a                            n/a                   n/a                              n/a                                        n/a                                n/a                               n/a

* Prices for both one and two bedroom              Townhome                   n/a                            n/a                   n/a                              n/a                                        n/a                                n/a                               n/a
  condominiums have increased by 4 percent         Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
                                                   * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
  compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Anticipate potential price increases due to      MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
  lower inventory levels.                                                 AVG. PRICE                              $ PSF                     AVG. PRICE                                           $ PSF

                                                   PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                             2 BEDROOM

                                                   High Rise                $437,441                              $686                       $711,842                                            $722

                                                   Low Rise                         n/a                            n/a                                 n/a                                            n/a
                                                   PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                                                  3 BEDROOM

                                                   Townhome                         n/a                            n/a                                 n/a                                            n/a

SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – WEST
          Vancouver - West retains its ‘green light’ rating in spite of the increase in unsold inventory and months of supply in
          the high rise and townhome sectors, which can be attributed to the launch of new projects. Sales activity at various
          projects illustrated the importance of being appropriately positioned relative to comparable and competing product in
          Vancouver - West and Vancouver - Downtown. The projects that were appropriately positioned outsold projects that
          weren’t by a significant margin.
 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                 Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES
                                                                                                                                                                        Point G
                                                                                                                                                                                  rey Rd                        Cornwall St
* Sales at The Village at False Creek remained




                                                                                                   We
                                                                                                                                  4th Ave W                                                                                                                                                                    Gr




                                                                                                      sb
                                                                                                                 University of                                                                                                                                                                                   e at Nor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the




                                                                                                        r oo
  steady, which should result in more product                                                                   British Columbia                10th Ave W                  BROADWAY W




                                                                                                         kM
                                                                                    Projected Q3
                                                                                                           all
  being released during the Third Quarter.                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12th Ave W
                                                                       Q2 release
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12
                                                                                                                                                                                             16th Ave W




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Arbutus St
                                                                                                                                                                Dunbar St
                                                                                                                                                    Crown St




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Macdonald St
                                                                                                                                                                               Blenheim St
* It will be interesting to gauge buyer response

                                                                                                               SW
                                                                                                                M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         King Edward Ave



                                                                                                                    ar
  to upcoming project releases and the higher

                                                                                                                       in
                                                                                                                            Dr



                                                                                                                       e
  average sale values they are anticipated to                                                                                                                                                                                                                            33rd Ave W                                33rd Ave
                                                     HIGH RISE
  seek.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 W Boulevard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         41st Ave W




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GRANVILLE STREET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   41st Ave
* The land prices being attained for land            LOW RISE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Main St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Cambie St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fraser St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         49th Ave W
  assemblies along the Cambie Corridor is            TOWNHOME




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oak St
  raising some concern as to the end sale values                                                                                                                                                                     57th Ave W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                57th A
  that will be required and how consumers will




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             C.P.R
  respond to these values.                          Maps for illustrative purposes




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SE Marine
                                                    only. Locations are approximate.                                                                                                                                                                                     70th Ave W                Kent Ave N




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  O
                                                   NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
                                                                                                      Q2 ACTIVE                     Q2                       Q2                                                  ACTIVE SALES
                                                          PRODUCT
                                                                                                      PROJECTS                     SALES                   SUPPLY                                                RANGE ($ PSF)
                                                          High Rise                                             17                 235                     1,066                                                               $740 - 790
                                                          Low Rise                                             3                      10                       20                                                              $675 - 725
                                                         Townhome                                               5                     21                       53                                                              $730 - 780


 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011
                                                   MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                      ACTIVE LISTINGS                                            SOLD INVENTORY
* For high rise product, sales increased by 13
                                                                                MONTHS                                                        % OF TOTAL                                                         AVG. DAYS                                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  percent and active listings were down 35         PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                               OF SUPPLY                                           #            SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                   $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                ON MARKET                                                           (75% of sales)
  percent compared to the same period last         High Rise              161                                  5.4               90               44                           $719                                                     38                                    $415,000 - 860,000
  year.                                            Low Rise              127                                   5.3               72               35                          $700                                                      34                                   $442,000 - 850,000
* Low rise product experienced similar supply      Townhome                64                                  4.4               44               21                          $642                                                      42                                  $590,000 - 1,075,000
  and demand characteristics as the Second         Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
  Quarter of 2010 (5.3 months of supply).          * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category

* Townhomes are currently under supplied in        MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
  this market (4.4 months of supply).                                     AVG. PRICE                                    $ PSF          AVG. PRICE                           $ PSF

* Overall prices for all product types increased   PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                2 BEDROOM

  by 2 percent compared to the Second              High Rise                $448,124                                    $669           $741,619                             $741
  Quarter 2010.
                                                   Low Rise                  $441,189                                   $658           $662,113                             $713
                                                   PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                                 3 BEDROOM

                                                   Townhome               $830,305                                      $652           $913,953                             $629

SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
MARKET SUMMARY
VANCOUVER – EAST
        As in the First Quarter of 2011, Vancouver - East is considered a ‘green light’ market. This market
        continues to benefit from the gentrification of Vancouver as more young professionals are priced out of the
        Vancouver - West market. It is anticipated that demand for new product in this market will remain strong
        for the remainder of 2011.


 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                   Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              morial Bridge
* Although townhome product in the market




                                                                                                                  St
                                                                                                               an
                                                                                                             nm
                                                                                                                                                                                                    McGill St
  showed a higher month of supply figure than




                                                                                                       De
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Eton St




                                                                                                             Da cific
                                                                                      Projected Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dundas St




                                                                                                               vie
  low rise and high rise product, most of the



                                                                                                                Pa
                                                                         Q2 release




                                                                                                                   St
                                                                                                                                                                                    HASTINGS STREET E




                                                                                                                      St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Willingdon Ave
  actively selling townhome projects are                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Parker St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gilmore Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Venables St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Holdom St
  nearing the end of their respective sales




                                                                                                                                                                         Clark Dr
                                                                                                                                            Gr                                                      1st Ave
                                                                                                                                              e at Nor
  programs. These developers are comfortable                                                                                                             thern
                                                                                                                                                                 Wy

  accepting lower absorptions in order to              HIGH RISE                                                                                                                    BROADWAY E
                                                                                                               12th Ave W
                                                                                                                                                         12th Ave E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Grandview Hwy
  maximize revenues on their remaining units.          LOW RISE




                                                                                                                                                                                       Nanaimo St
                                                                                                                                                            KIN                                                                                               Canada Wy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                Renfrew St
                                                                                                                                                                 GS




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Rupert St
                                                                                                                                                                   WA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Wayburne Dr
                                                                                                              King Edward Ave                                        Y
* Onni enjoyed a very positive reception to its                                                                                                                                                                                                         Kincaid St                                                       Spro
                                                       TOWNHOME
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Collingwood
  Central project on Quebec Street. Investor                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Moscrop St
                                                                                                              33rd Ave W                        33rd Ave E                                                                                                                                                        Deer Lake Pk
  and end user buyers responded to the                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Burke St
                                                      Maps for illustrative purposes                          41st Ave W
  unique architectural design and the
                                                                                                     TREET




                                                                                                                                                41st Ave E                                                                                                                      Gran
                                                      only. Locations are approximate.                                                                                                                                                                                              ge S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        t
  appropriate positioning of the project.
                                                     NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
* Polygon’s successful launch at its New Water                                                       Q2 ACTIVE                    Q2                  Q2                                        ACTIVE SALES
                                                            PRODUCT
  low rise project has brought much attention                                                        PROJECTS                    SALES              SUPPLY                                      RANGE ($ PSF)

  and interest to this area,                                High Rise                                          5                 196                 147                                             $625 - 675
                                                            Low Rise                                           13                181                 217                                             $475 - 525
                                                           Townhome                                            4                     16                  35                                         $450 - 500


 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011
                                                     MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                        ACTIVE LISTINGS                                        SOLD INVENTORY
* High rise product is currently under supplied in
                                                                                  MONTHS                                                  % OF TOTAL                                         AVG. DAYS                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  this market (4.1 months of supply).                PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                                 OF SUPPLY                                       #          SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                       $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                            ON MARKET                                           (75% of sales)
                                                     High Rise                91                              4.1               66             50                     $549                             22                                   $296,000 - 515,000
* Overall sales figures for all product types
  increased by 33 percent compared to the            Low Rise               121                                9.1              40             30                     $473                             42                                   $273,000 - 454,000
  Second Quarter of 2010.                            Townhome                48                               5.3               27             20                     $482                             19                                   $488,000 - 697,000
* Very low days on the market average for            Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
                                                     * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
  townhomes in this market (19 days on
  average).                                          MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
                                                                            AVG. PRICE                                 $ PSF         AVG. PRICE                  $ PSF

                                                     PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                          2 BEDROOM

                                                     High Rise               $380,755                                  $553           $486,773                   $544

                                                     Low Rise                $297,394                                $504            $405,936                    $455
                                                     PRODUCT                          2 BEDROOM                                           3 BEDROOM

                                                     Townhome               $580,685                                   $521           $612,986                   $424

SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      6
MARKET SUMMARY
RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN
        Strong demand across all product types continues to match the supply brought to market. Townhome and low rise
        absorption continues to be strong especially in the Alexandra neighbourhood of West Cambie. While values for concrete
        condominiums in this market have risen over the same period last year, it should be noted that demand for larger
        product with higher price points is still modest. While many pre-sale developments in the this market are currently
        experiencing sales success, future developments are recommended to proceed with conservative pricing expectations.
 NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:                                 Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES




                                                                                                                                                            y
                                                                                                                                                              W




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Vulcan
                                                                                                                                                           er
* Price increases for townhomes in Richmond                                                                                                   Russ Bak
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Alderbridge Wy                                                                     RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW
  can be attributed to the increased pricing of                                                                       River Rd




                                                                                    Projected Q3
  single family homes.                                                                                                                                                                                          Westminster Hwy
                                                                       Q2 release




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  C.N.R.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             No 8 Rd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           No. 7 Rd
* Polygon’s Mayfair Place continues to show                                                                                               Granville Ave




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         THRUWAY
  strong absorptions as purchasers seek a                                                                                                 Blundell Rd

  more affordable alternative to concrete
                                                                                                           No. 1 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                  Gilbert Rd



                                                                                                                                                                                 No. 3 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     No. 4 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              No. 5 Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        No. 6 Rd
                                                                                                                            Railway Ave




                                                                                                                                                                                               Garden City Rd
                                                     HIGH RISE                                                                            Francis Rd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         FRASER - DELTA
  construction in Richmond.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               T
                                                     LOW RISE                                                                             Williams Rd                                                                                                                                                                          I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                H
* Townline is expected to commence sales at
  its site at the former Fantasy Gardens in the      TOWNHOME                                                                             Steveston Hwy                                                                                                                                                                   r Rd
                                                                                                                                               No. 2 Rd                                                                                                                                                               Rive

  Third Quarter.                                                                                      Steveston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Shell Rd
                                                                                                                       Moncton St

* Quintet successfully launched its second and      Maps for illustrative purposes




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           or
                                                    only. Locations are approximate.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ge
  final phases in the Second Quarter.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                M




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    a
                                                   NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS
                                                                                                   Q2 ACTIVE                               Q2                                    Q2                                             ACTIVE SALES
                                                          PRODUCT
                                                                                                   PROJECTS                               SALES                                SUPPLY                                           RANGE ($ PSF)
                                                          High Rise                                  9                                    510                                  425                                               $550 - 600
                                                          Low Rise                                    7                                   103                                  149                                               $425 - 475
                                                         Townhome                                    19                                    93                                  138                                               $375 - 425


 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011
                                                   MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:
                                                                      ACTIVE LISTINGS                                       SOLD INVENTORY
* High rise sales are up slightly and active
                                                                                MONTHS                                                                    % OF TOTAL                                                             AVG. DAYS                                      ACTIVE SALES RANGE
  listings are down considerably compared to       PRODUCT            LISTINGS
                                                                               OF SUPPLY                                                  #                 SOLD*
                                                                                                                                                                                               $ PSF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ON MARKET                                           (75% of sales)
  the Second Quarter of 2010.                      High Rise            289                          7.5                     115                                  37                          $526                                  50                                         $338,800 - 598,000
* Low rise sales and listings totals are similar   Low Rise              122                          6                          61                               20                          $447                                  45                                          $335,000 - 491,000
  to the Second Quarter of 2010.
                                                   Townhome             257                          5.9                     131                                  43                          $423                                  34                                         $523,000 - 712,000
* Lower sales for low rise product can be
                                                   Change over the last quarter:     Increase,    Decrease,    No Change
  explained by the large volumes occurring on      * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category
  the pre-sale front (i.e. Mayfair Place).
* Both sales and listings for townhomes have       MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE
                                                                          AVG. PRICE                       $ PSF                              AVG. PRICE                                    $ PSF
  increased compared to the Second Quarter
  of 2010.                                         PRODUCT                           1 BEDROOM                                                            2 BEDROOM

* Townhomes have increased by 7 percent in         High Rise               $354,720                        $522                               $486,845                                      $526
  price compared to the Second Quarter of          Low Rise                $323,367                        $473                               $424,186                                      $440
  2010.                                                                             2 BEDROOM                                                             3 BEDROOM
                                                   PRODUCT

                                                   Townhome                 $529,515                       $426                               $608,100                                      $423

SECOND QUARTER 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011
Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011

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Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011

  • 1. MarketShare SECOND QUARTER 2011 A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND August 2011
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS WELCOME TO MarketShare 1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2 OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY 3 MARKET SUMMARIES Vancouver – Downtown 4 Vancouver – West 5 Vancouver – East 6 Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7 Burnaby/New Westminster 8 North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9 Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10 Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11 Surrey Central/North Delta 12 South Surrey/White Rock 13 Cloverdale/Langley 14 WHAT TO WATCH 15 SECOND QUARTER 2011
  • 3. WELCOME TO MarketShare As our team worked through the process of creating the Finally, having worked in real estate most of my career I have had the privilege of working in and living in Vancouver while simultaneously being latest edition of MarketShare the media was buzzing involved in projects throughout the world. I appreciate the benefit of with stories on the US debt ceiling crisis and the global having a global perspective informed by rich and ongoing dialogue with economy - I think I have definitely had enough CNN for my global colleagues in the business. My colleagues continue to be the summer. impressed with our market and offerings and continue to be proactive in promoting Vancouver projects in Asia with a strong focus in China. Our The US is still a major global economic force and continues to draw more long term view is that this market will be sustainable for the foreseeable than its share of attention and concern when storms occur. However, the future and we are investing in infrastructure to support this view. We number of conflicting view points out there with respect to the seriousness have commenced work on a website in China that will feature Canadian of the situation and the probable impacts create a sea of confusion. What properties with an emphasis on the Vancouver and Toronto markets. In does seem certain is this: there are significant economic problems in the US addition, we are also developing a newsletter and electronic magazine that will have to be addressed in the coming years. Will it affect our market? which will showcase select Vancouver properties and be distributed to It may have a short term effect on some buyers’ confidence but overall our database as well as our immigration and banking partners. We are unless there is a complete collapse the impact on our market will be also establishing a Private Buyer’s Service abroad to coordinate the minimal. On the other hand, if there were similar challenges in Asia and interest we are generating and help funnel these prospective buyers to China in particular we would see a negative effect on our local market. projects locally. These investments will be leveraged by our existing In my view, there is no reason to believe Chinese immigration and buying international clients and will be offered more broadly in the future. won’t continue to influence our market for the foreseeable future. It would We are in uncertain times globally, but have a real estate market locally take a very severe turn in government policy towards immigration to negate that is very much envied. Our long term view of this market remains this market trend. Since we have been producing MarketShare demand unchanged…”we wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.” from this market has continued to increase pricing in select markets. However, this demand has primarily impacted a limited number of sub I hope you are enjoying your summer and taking time to appreciate family markets in the Lower Mainland. There is continued demand for all product and friends. And, as always I hope this edition of MarketShare is types in Vancouver - West, Richmond and Metrotown and for detached enjoyable and informative. We welcome your thoughts and opinions. homes and townhome product in South Surrey. From an overall market perspective the lower mainland market continues to impress. I must admit upon reading the data collected on the past quarter’s sales performance my first instinct was to check it again. The pace of sales Greg Ashley was simply astounding. To date nearly 80 percent of last years total volume PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER, has been achieved. Congratulations to all the developers who enjoyed this COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING success. We know full well the countless hours that go into making a project a success. Incidentally, the impact of these successes in many areas like Metrotown warrant additional study independent of the broader market area they encompass, i.e. Burnaby/New Westminister. As development evolves in these “micro” communities the gap in pricing and product offering may vastly change in contrast to the surrounding areas. This trend may alter how we need to view the market and produce this report. SECOND QUARTER 2011 1
  • 4. RESEARCH Methodology Urban Analytics (UAI) is the source for analytical CONTEMPLATED MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA UAI also continuously monitors new multi-family developments being interpretation of relevant real estate market data, trends contemplated in the various markets in the Lower Mainland to determine and strategic recommendations. Our client-focused the level of potential new supply in each area. For the purposes of the service model determines the information required, MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various municipal planning then collects and interprets the data in a timely manner departments along with developers (and/or their representatives) of enabling clients to make informed strategic decisions. proposed new developments to determine the anticipated timing of their approval and marketing launch. Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALE Lower Mainland. The resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI The methodology used to collect the data was as follows: closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the GENERAL PARAMETERS breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less Vancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to than helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends Aldergrove. At the present time, we have excluded Abbotsford, Chilliwack, studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less and Mission. And, given the focus on the multi-family market we have than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to excluded single family home sales from our data collection efforts newer product (i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALES new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and UAI takes a dynamic approach to collecting multi-family new home sales potentially skew the data towards a specific type of product available in a data. The primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to small number of specific buildings/projects. In all instances active sales each project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales range quoted in tables is defined as “The active sales range in which 75 information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine percent of sales of this product type occurred”. additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’ defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking. product type occurred”. Michael Ferreira PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC. SECOND QUARTER 2011 2
  • 5. OVERALL – SUMMARY VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND Sales of multi-family residential real estate rapidly accelerated in the Second overall compared to the First Quarter of 2011. However in comparison to the Quarter of 2011. A total of 4,839 units were sold in the Second Quarter of 2011 Second Quarter of 2010 active listings are down approximately 13 percent a dramatic 85 percent increase from the same period in 2010 and surpassing on aggregate even with a 9 percent increase in townhome listings taken into the most active quarter in 2010 by a whopping 78 percent. When compared account. Overall the first quarter sales were distributed across all product with results in the First Quarter of 2011 sales were up 91 percent. To date, types accordingly: 7,366 new units have been sold or 82 percent of last year’s total volume. HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS New high profile projects in Vancouver - Downtown, Vancouver - West, Total Sales 1,009 644 872 2,525 Vancouver - East, Richmond, Metrotown, Coquitlam and New Westminster Total Active Listings 1,929 1,466 1,404 4,799 drove the pace supported by steady absorptions of inventory in most areas. Even with the number of launches inventory only increased approximately 12 THE QUARTER AHEAD: percent over the First Quarter of 2011 to 7,752 units. This is approximately 36 Local and Asian investors were active at all high rise successes in the percent more inventory than was on the market in the First Quarter of 2010. Second Quarter of 2011. End users were very active at new low rise and townhome offerings in more suburban areas such as New Westminster, NEW HOME MARKET: Burquitlam and South Surrey. This trend is expected to continue in the fall. As indicated in the table below, in the Second Quarter of 2011, 56 percent of sales occurred at high rise projects which is a 13 percent increase compared Towards the end of the Second Quarter concerns about the market emerged to the First Quarter of 2011 but a 7 percent decrease compared to the Second based on launch results that were less than market expectations in a limited Quarter of 2010. Low rise sales represented 27 percent of sales which is number of locations, However, significant successes in the later portion of down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Townhome sales formed the June somewhat eased these concerns. That being said, recent economic remaining 17 percent of total sales which decreased 11 per cent from the First events in Europe and the US has resulted in a resurgence of “bubble” talk Quarter of 2011 but only 1.5 percent less than Second Quarter 2010. and developer sentiment seems more cautious than it otherwise might be on the heels of such a strong quarter. For the fifth consecutive quarter inventory has increased as developers showed confidence and continued to bring new offerings to market. And, The quarter ahead is typically the slowest quarter of the year as it active projects increased again this quarter albeit by a moderate 9 percent to a encompasses summer, a season during which investors tend to be less total of 279. active locally and with sales centre traffic slowing due to summer vacations. That said, we do expect sales to meet or modestly exceed absorptions Overall the second quarter performance was astounding across all product achieved in the Third Quarter of 2010 - 1,649 new multi-family sales were types as indicated in the following table: generated in that period. HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS Total Second Quarter Sales 2,729 1,313 797 4,839 Total Inventory 3,998 2,521 1,233 7,752 Total No. Of Projects 90 94 95 279 W. Scott Brown SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA RESALE MARKET: COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING In the Second Quarter of 2011, an estimated 2,525 resale multi-family homes were sold which represents a 61 percent increase over the First Quarter of Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’ and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming 2011 and a 51 percent increase over the Second Quarter of 2010. More editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’ specifically high rise sales were up 30 percent, low rise sales were up 76 commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views. percent and townhomes sales were up a whopping 80 percent. Active listings for all product types were moderately up resulting in a 15 percent increase SECOND QUARTER 2011 3
  • 6. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN The ‘green light’ rating for the Vancouver - Downtown market is a tentative one. As the two most recent project launches illustrated, success in this market area is largely dependent on whether a project appeals to the local investor and Chinese buyer group. While Concert sold nearly 80 percent of its SALT project at Hornby and Drake, Cressey achieved more modest absorptions at Maddox. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES t ll S nS we * The success of Concert’s SALT illustrates nm a Bid De Me CANADA St PLACE that there is demand for condo units without ero W lvi lle St Ge ard Projected Q3 C St org parking as long as they are priced ola ia Q2 release Nic St St Du ns Co appropriately relative to comparable units Ha Bute mu W rd ov rw ir S Ha a oo Ne W sti St Water dS t t t Pe t olaS nS lso n ng with parking. Nic ug hto Pe Co mo nS t de rS sS t o t t Br sS n dra xS rvi ll S t Je t t * There are now six completed projects with a teS HIGH RISE Bu St St St rn by rds K combined 76 units of standing inventory. Pa low Ho St St ha St cifi ur we vil le Ric t Th me r nS Be cS St Ho ran ilto d Ho ac t d G t Blv The anticipated completion of Jameson LOW RISE rar am ie S hA ur H po B mb y St Ex ve GM Ca t at BC PLACE PLA House and The Beasley buildings could add to Be St Da STADIUM TOWNHOME DS T ur vie RAR mo St lvd this total. BUR GE y cB BRID Se cifi Pa T L ES VIL * Launch timing for a number of contemplated AN E GR RIDG Maps for illustrative purposes B new projects is uncertain. These include only. Locations are approximate. Townline’s 999 Seymour and Concord’s NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Panorama. Q2 ACTIVE Q2 Q2 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) * The Residences at Hotel Georgia is expected to High Rise 18 232 569 $690 - 710 have completed and merchandised display Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a suites ready for viewing by early 2012. Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a MLS RESALE - Q2 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * Sales have increased by 49 percent MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE compared to the Second Quarter of 2010. PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 554 4.6 361 100 $709 37 $370,000 - 855,000 * Listings have decreased by 36 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010. Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a * Prices for both one and two bedroom Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a condominiums have increased by 4 percent Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category compared to the Second Quarter of 2010. * Anticipate potential price increases due to MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE lower inventory levels. AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $437,441 $686 $711,842 $722 Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a SECOND QUARTER 2011 4
  • 7. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – WEST Vancouver - West retains its ‘green light’ rating in spite of the increase in unsold inventory and months of supply in the high rise and townhome sectors, which can be attributed to the launch of new projects. Sales activity at various projects illustrated the importance of being appropriately positioned relative to comparable and competing product in Vancouver - West and Vancouver - Downtown. The projects that were appropriately positioned outsold projects that weren’t by a significant margin. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES Point G rey Rd Cornwall St * Sales at The Village at False Creek remained We 4th Ave W Gr sb University of e at Nor the r oo steady, which should result in more product British Columbia 10th Ave W BROADWAY W kM Projected Q3 all being released during the Third Quarter. 12th Ave W Q2 release 12 16th Ave W Arbutus St Dunbar St Crown St Macdonald St Blenheim St * It will be interesting to gauge buyer response SW M King Edward Ave ar to upcoming project releases and the higher in Dr e average sale values they are anticipated to 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave HIGH RISE seek. W Boulevard 41st Ave W GRANVILLE STREET 41st Ave * The land prices being attained for land LOW RISE Main St Cambie St Fraser St 49th Ave W assemblies along the Cambie Corridor is TOWNHOME Oak St raising some concern as to the end sale values 57th Ave W 57th A that will be required and how consumers will C.P.R respond to these values. Maps for illustrative purposes . SE Marine only. Locations are approximate. 70th Ave W Kent Ave N O NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Q2 ACTIVE Q2 Q2 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) High Rise 17 235 1,066 $740 - 790 Low Rise 3 10 20 $675 - 725 Townhome 5 21 53 $730 - 780 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * For high rise product, sales increased by 13 MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE percent and active listings were down 35 PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) percent compared to the same period last High Rise 161 5.4 90 44 $719 38 $415,000 - 860,000 year. Low Rise 127 5.3 72 35 $700 34 $442,000 - 850,000 * Low rise product experienced similar supply Townhome 64 4.4 44 21 $642 42 $590,000 - 1,075,000 and demand characteristics as the Second Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change Quarter of 2010 (5.3 months of supply). * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category * Townhomes are currently under supplied in MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE this market (4.4 months of supply). AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF * Overall prices for all product types increased PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM by 2 percent compared to the Second High Rise $448,124 $669 $741,619 $741 Quarter 2010. Low Rise $441,189 $658 $662,113 $713 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $830,305 $652 $913,953 $629 SECOND QUARTER 2011 5
  • 8. MARKET SUMMARY VANCOUVER – EAST As in the First Quarter of 2011, Vancouver - East is considered a ‘green light’ market. This market continues to benefit from the gentrification of Vancouver as more young professionals are priced out of the Vancouver - West market. It is anticipated that demand for new product in this market will remain strong for the remainder of 2011. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES morial Bridge * Although townhome product in the market St an nm McGill St showed a higher month of supply figure than De Eton St Da cific Projected Q3 Dundas St vie low rise and high rise product, most of the Pa Q2 release St HASTINGS STREET E St Willingdon Ave actively selling townhome projects are Parker St Gilmore Ave Venables St Holdom St nearing the end of their respective sales Clark Dr Gr 1st Ave e at Nor programs. These developers are comfortable thern Wy accepting lower absorptions in order to HIGH RISE BROADWAY E 12th Ave W 12th Ave E Grandview Hwy maximize revenues on their remaining units. LOW RISE Nanaimo St KIN Canada Wy Renfrew St GS Rupert St WA Wayburne Dr King Edward Ave Y * Onni enjoyed a very positive reception to its Kincaid St Spro TOWNHOME Collingwood Central project on Quebec Street. Investor Moscrop St 33rd Ave W 33rd Ave E Deer Lake Pk and end user buyers responded to the Burke St Maps for illustrative purposes 41st Ave W unique architectural design and the TREET 41st Ave E Gran only. Locations are approximate. ge S t appropriate positioning of the project. NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS * Polygon’s successful launch at its New Water Q2 ACTIVE Q2 Q2 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT low rise project has brought much attention PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) and interest to this area, High Rise 5 196 147 $625 - 675 Low Rise 13 181 217 $475 - 525 Townhome 4 16 35 $450 - 500 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * High rise product is currently under supplied in MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE this market (4.1 months of supply). PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) High Rise 91 4.1 66 50 $549 22 $296,000 - 515,000 * Overall sales figures for all product types increased by 33 percent compared to the Low Rise 121 9.1 40 30 $473 42 $273,000 - 454,000 Second Quarter of 2010. Townhome 48 5.3 27 20 $482 19 $488,000 - 697,000 * Very low days on the market average for Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category townhomes in this market (19 days on average). MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM High Rise $380,755 $553 $486,773 $544 Low Rise $297,394 $504 $405,936 $455 PRODUCT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM Townhome $580,685 $521 $612,986 $424 SECOND QUARTER 2011 6
  • 9. MARKET SUMMARY RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN Strong demand across all product types continues to match the supply brought to market. Townhome and low rise absorption continues to be strong especially in the Alexandra neighbourhood of West Cambie. While values for concrete condominiums in this market have risen over the same period last year, it should be noted that demand for larger product with higher price points is still modest. While many pre-sale developments in the this market are currently experiencing sales success, future developments are recommended to proceed with conservative pricing expectations. NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES y W Vulcan er * Price increases for townhomes in Richmond Russ Bak Alderbridge Wy RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW can be attributed to the increased pricing of River Rd Projected Q3 single family homes. Westminster Hwy Q2 release C.N.R. No 8 Rd No. 7 Rd * Polygon’s Mayfair Place continues to show Granville Ave THRUWAY strong absorptions as purchasers seek a Blundell Rd more affordable alternative to concrete No. 1 Rd Gilbert Rd No. 3 Rd No. 4 Rd No. 5 Rd No. 6 Rd Railway Ave Garden City Rd HIGH RISE Francis Rd FRASER - DELTA construction in Richmond. T LOW RISE Williams Rd I H * Townline is expected to commence sales at its site at the former Fantasy Gardens in the TOWNHOME Steveston Hwy r Rd No. 2 Rd Rive Third Quarter. Steveston Shell Rd Moncton St * Quintet successfully launched its second and Maps for illustrative purposes Ge or only. Locations are approximate. ge final phases in the Second Quarter. M t a NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS Q2 ACTIVE Q2 Q2 ACTIVE SALES PRODUCT PROJECTS SALES SUPPLY RANGE ($ PSF) High Rise 9 510 425 $550 - 600 Low Rise 7 103 149 $425 - 475 Townhome 19 93 138 $375 - 425 MLS RESALE - Q2 2011 MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age) MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY * High rise sales are up slightly and active MONTHS % OF TOTAL AVG. DAYS ACTIVE SALES RANGE listings are down considerably compared to PRODUCT LISTINGS OF SUPPLY # SOLD* $ PSF ON MARKET (75% of sales) the Second Quarter of 2010. High Rise 289 7.5 115 37 $526 50 $338,800 - 598,000 * Low rise sales and listings totals are similar Low Rise 122 6 61 20 $447 45 $335,000 - 491,000 to the Second Quarter of 2010. Townhome 257 5.9 131 43 $423 34 $523,000 - 712,000 * Lower sales for low rise product can be Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change explained by the large volumes occurring on * % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category the pre-sale front (i.e. Mayfair Place). * Both sales and listings for townhomes have MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPE AVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF increased compared to the Second Quarter of 2010. PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM * Townhomes have increased by 7 percent in High Rise $354,720 $522 $486,845 $526 price compared to the Second Quarter of Low Rise $323,367 $473 $424,186 $440 2010. 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM PRODUCT Townhome $529,515 $426 $608,100 $423 SECOND QUARTER 2011 7