Sam Baldwin | CSP, PV and a Renewable Future

CSP, PV, and a Renewable Future Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy George Washington University 24 April 2009 Sam Baldwin Chief Technology Officer and Member, Board of Directors Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy

Energy-Linked Challenges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nations that HAVE oil (% of Global Reserves) Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11 Kuwait 10 Iran 9 UAE 8 Venezuela 6 Russia 5 Mexico 3 Libya 3 China 3 Nigeria 2 U.S. 2% Nations that NEED Oil (% of Global Consumption) U.S. 24. % China 8.6 Japan 5.9 Russia 3.4 India 3.1 Germany 2.9 Canada 2.8 Brazil 2.6 S. Korea 2.6 Mexico 2.4 France 2.3 Italy 2.0 Global ~85 MM Bbl/day Source: EIA International Energy Annual The Oil Problem

Impacts of Oil Dependence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Oil Sources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: David Greene, ORNL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Potential Impacts of GHG Emissions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],U.S.: 5.9 GT CO 2 /yr energy-related World: 28.3 GT CO 2 /yr Hoegh-Guldberg, et al, Science, V.318, pp.1737, 14 Dec. 2007

Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

New York City during the August 2003 blackout Kristina Hamachi LaCommare, and Joseph H. Eto, LBNL Costs of Power Interruptions

Scale of the Challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Time Constants ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Solar Energy ,[object Object],[object Object]

Photovoltaics Source: EERE/STP

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 026587136 University Linz Siemens ECN, The Netherlands Princeton UC Berkeley Source: NREL 40.8 19.9 Efficiency (%) University of Maine Boeing Boeing Boeing Boeing ARCO NREL Boeing Euro-CIS 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 NREL/ Spectrolab NREL NREL Japan Energy Spire No. Carolina State University Multijunction Concentrators Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Crystalline Si Cells Single crystal Multicrystalline Thin Si Thin Film Technologies Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 CdTe Amorphous Si:H (stabilized) Emerging PV Dye cells Organic cells (various technologies) Varian RCA Solarex UNSW UNSW ARCO UNSW UNSW UNSW Spire Stanford Westing- house UNSW Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Sharp AstroPower NREL AstroPower Spectrolab NREL Masushita Monosolar Kodak Kodak AMETEK Photon Energy University So. Florida NREL NREL NREL Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 14x concentration NREL United Solar United Solar RCA RCA RCA RCA RCA RCA Spectrolab Solarex 12 8 4 0 16 20 24 28 32 36 University of Lausanne University of Lausanne 2005 Kodak UCSB Cambridge NREL

PV Shipments and U.S. Market Share

Trough Systems Power Towers Dish Systems Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Source: NREL Linear Fresnel Dish Systems Source: EERE/STP

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 354 MW Luz Solar Electric Generating Systems (SEGS) Nine Plants built 1984 - 1991 Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1-MW Arizona Trough Plant Tucson, AZ Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

64 MW e Acciona Nevada Solar One Solar Parabolic Trough Plant Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

50 MW AndaSol One and Two Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr Storage, Andalucía Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Abengoa PS10 and PS 20; Seville, Spain Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

US Projects Under Development Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 424 MW 4503 MW

International Projects Under Development Source: Mark Mehos, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 658 MW 3180 MW

Value of Dispatchable Power? Meets Utility Peak Power Demands ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Solar Resource Hourly Load 0 6 12 18 24 Generation w/ Thermal Storage

Concentrating Solar Power U.S. Southwest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Direct-Normal Solar Resource for the Southwest U.S. Map and table courtesy of NREL Filters: Transmission >6.75 kWh/m 2 d Environment X Land Use X Slope < 1% Area > 1 km 2 5 acres/MW 27% annual CF

CSP R&D Opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Building Technology Program Core Databook, August 2003. http://buildingsdatabook.eren.doe.gov/frame.asp?p=tableview.asp&TableID=509&t=xls ; Annual Energy Outlook 2008. Often Forgotten Solar Buildings: Total Primary Energy 38.9 quads (2006) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Industry: Total Primary Energy 32.7 quads (2006)

A Renewable Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Energy Efficiency: 1970-2007 Efficiency; Structural Change: Total 106.8 New Supply Gas 1.8Q RE 2.8 Nucl 8.2 Oil 10.3 Coal 10.5 Total 33.8

U.S. Refrigerator Energy Consumption (Average energy consumption of new refrigerators sold in the U.S.) Source: LBNL Savings: ~1400 kWh/year * $0.10/kWh *100 M households = $14 B/year

Plug-In Hybrids ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Wind Energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],11,600 2006 ~16,800 2007 Source: EERE/WTP ~25,500 2008

Wind Energy GE Wind 1.5 MW Source: EERE/WTP Source: S. Succar, R. Williams, “CAES: Theory, Resources, Applications…” 4/08

Geothermal Technologies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A Renewable Electricity Future? Photovoltaics Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Smart Grid Distributed Generation Plug-in Hybrids c-Si Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 500x Wind

Materials ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Material World Production Material at 20 GW/y % Current Production Indium 250 MT/y 400 MT/y 160% Selenium 2,200 MT/y 800 MT/y 36% Gallium 150 MT/y 70 MT/y 47% Tellurium 450 MT/y (2000 MT/y unused) 930 MT/y 38% (of total) Cadmium 26,000 MT/y 800 MT/y 3%

Grid Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Policy: Federal / State ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Mobilizing Capital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Human Resources: Solar Decathlon Carnegie Mellon; Cornell; Georgia Tech; Kansas State; Lawrence Technological University; MIT; New York Institute of Technology; Pennsylvania State; Santa Clara University; Team Montreal ( É cole de Technologie Sup é rieure, Universit é de Montr é al, McGill University); Technische Universit ä t Darmstadt; Texas A&M; Universidad Polit é cnica de Madrid; Universidad de Puerto Rico; University of Colorado – Boulder; University of Cincinnati; University of Illinois; University of Maryland; University of Missouri, Rolla; University of Texas, Austin. Architecture Engineering Market Viability Communications Comfort Appliances Hot Water Lighting Energy Balance Getting Around Source: STP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

For more information http://www.eere.energy.gov [email_address]

Sam Baldwin | CSP, PV and a Renewable Future

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Sam Baldwin | CSP, PV and a Renewable Future