Boost Fertility New Invention Ups Success Rates.pdf
Birth Of Thin Film Cd Te And Cigs Pv Handout
1. Birth of Thin Film CdTe and CIS
Solar PV in the US Market
Ken Zweibel
Director
Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy
George Washington University
2.
3. CdTe and CIS
• Cadmium telluride (CdTe) and alloys of copper
indium diselenide with gallium and sulfur (CIS)
• Key 2nd generation, thin film photovoltaic
module technologies aimed at reducing
system cost
• Challenging semiconductor‐based PV options
with almost no prior science or technology
base
4. Now and Then
• 1980
– Decent small area solar cells
– Huge scale‐up challenges (module area and
throughput)
– Little or no market pull
• Today
– CdTe: Made by the single largest thin film
manufacturing company (First Solar) and providing the
lowest‐cost solar systems
– CIS: The largest focus of solar venture capital
investment
5. Context
• From 1980 to 2003, the solar market was
almost negligible
• Solar was ten times more expensive than
conventional electricity (50 c/kWh versus 5)
• Climate change was an annoying background
issue
• Huge technical challenges existed without the
money to overcome them
6. Cash Flow
• Lack of commercial revenue prevented
– Investment in R&D to move technologies closer to
product
– Improve the product from its rudimentary levels
• Funds came from
– Government
– Individual wealthy visionary investors
– Oil companies and a few others (“green wash?”)
– Not from venture capital (lack of market)
7. The Interregnum
• During 1980 to 2003
– Small area cell conversion efficiencies rose to
respectable levels
– Processes were developed to scale‐up areas to
product (“module”) sizes (10,000‐fold size
increase)
– The first decent modules were made
– Pilot lines were built and usually failed (another
10,000 fold product area increase)
8.
9. Companies That Built Pilot Lines
• CdTe • CIS alloys
Coors – Golden Photon – ARCO Solar, Siemens
–
Solar, Shell Solar, Showa
Matsushita
–
Shell
BP Solar
–
– Boeing
Solar Cells Inc.
–
– EPV
Antec (Germany)
–
– Wurth (Germany)
– ITN Global Solar
10. Production as of 2003
• CdTe – 5‐15 MW/yr
– Antec
– First Solar (was Solar Cells Inc.)
• CIS
– Pilot lines at Wurth and Global Solar (sub 5
MW/yr)
• That is – literally nothing
11. A Tale of Two Technologies 2003
CdTe 2003 CIS Alloys 2003
• One key corporate leader • No mature, successful
(First Solar) with substantial approach to full‐scale
investment and almost manufacturing
mature technology • Spectrum of participants
– Walton Family (Wal‐Mart and investors
heirs)
• Little or no venture capital
– Management knowledgeable
• Best small‐area cell
and confident of its product’s
efficiency of any thin film
value and potential
(“story rich”)
12. What Happened in 2003?
• Pre‐2003, Japanese Subsidies (small but a
start)
• Post‐2003, Substantial German Subsidies
– Huge new market
– Huge revenue growth
– Cash flow circulated into technology development
and economies of scale
– Companies and VCs got interested got wind at
backs to take risk of scale‐up
13. CdTe Today
• Half a gigawatt of annual production
• Nearly a gigawatt of production next year
• One major company (First Solar)
– Five others
• Antec – still producing low‐efficiency modules in small volumes
• Two start‐ups corporate owners (Calyxo by Q‐Cells and PrimeStar
Solar by GE)
• Two with VC investment (AVA, Arendi)
• First Solar
– Lowest cost producer of modules and systems in all of PV
– Among the largest PV companies in the world by volume
14.
15. First Solar Capacity Expansion
1,104MW
720MW
308MW
∼100MW
25MW
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2005 and 2006 based on Q4 06 run rate 2008 – 2009 based on Q2 08 run
2007 based on Q4 07 run rate rate
17. CdTe, PV Cost Leader
• A 40 MW system in Waldpolenz Solar Park, Germany: at the
time of its announcement, it was both the largest planned
and lowest cost PV system in the world: 3.25 euros or $4.2
per watt. [36]
• A 7.5 MW system in Blythe, CA, where the California Public
Utilities Commission has accepted a 12 ¢/kWh power
purchase agreement with First Solar (after the application
of all incentives). [37] Defined in California as the quot;Market
Referent Price,quot; this is the price the PUC will pay for any
daytime peaking power source, e.g., natural gas.
• A contract for two megawatts of rooftop installations with
Southern California Edison, where the SCE program is
designed to install 250 MW at a total cost of $875M
(averaging $3.5 per watt), after incentives. [38]
18. CIS Alloys Today
Trying to combine best aspects of sunlight‐to‐electricity conversion
•
efficiency with low cost
– 20% small‐area solar cell (versus 16.5% for CdTe)
– 15% minimodule (versus 12% for CdTe)
– But cost and manufacturing are huge challenges
Small production (under 25 MW/yr) from
•
Wurth (funded by wealthy individual)
–
Showa Shell (Shell Japan)
–
Honda
–
Global Solar (Utility funding, then PV company, Solon, buyout)
–
Avancis (Shell and St. Gobain)
–
Solyndra
–
Huge number of competing start‐up companies with different approaches
•
(50?) funded by VCs
– Most building pilot or production lines
• Nanosolar, Miasole, Heliovolt, etc.
19. CIS Has Strained the VC Approach
• Very high level of investment to get through
cell‐to‐module scale‐up
• Another large investment for first factory
• Potential for several multi‐year delays
• Very high pre‐production valuations if value of
initial investments are to be sustained
• Probably a combination of the attractions of
solar and dot‐com nostalgia
– Mostly a silicon valley phenomenon
22. Gronet said Solyndra has raised $600 million in
equity from investors including the Virgin
Seven funds known to have invested in Green Fund, Madrone Capital Partners,
Miasole’s latest round — Miasole, one of the RockPort Capital Partners, Argonaut Capital
biggest thin‐film solar startups, has been Partners, Redpoint Ventures, US Venture
raising a $200 million round. So far, the Partners and CMEA Ventures. It was reported
company has obtained commitments from last year that Solyndra raised $79 million.
seven funds. Miasole is believed to have raised
$50 million in a series D round last autumn.
Nanosolar Ups Funding to $0.5B; Partners
Strategically for Solar Utility Power
August 27, 2008
By Martin Roscheisen, CEO
As part of a strategic $300 million equity
financing, Nanosolar has added new capital AVA (CdTe): This $104
and brought its total amount of funding to million funding was led
date to just below half a billion U.S. dollars. by DCM and included
new investors
Technology Partners,
HelioVolt Corp., an Austin company pioneering
GLG Partners and
the use of powerful and durable quot;thin‐filmquot;
Bohemian Companies,
solar materials, said Wednesday it has raised
LLC as well as prior
$77 million in a second round of investment.
investors, including
Invus, LP.
23.
24. Changing VC Model
• VCs have problems with longer‐term, higher
risk, more capital‐intense technologies
– And complex technologies for which they lack
specialist knowledge
• But shifting societal needs mean that these
are the ones with the highest potential payoff
• VCs adapt to the new opportunity