1. Integrated drought monitoring systems - a tool for
drought research and practical applications.
April 22, 2015, Bucharest
Miroslav Trnka + 35 scientists + Zdeněk Žalud
Mendel University in Brno, CzechGlobe AS,
BOKU Wien, NDMC Lincoln + 5 institutions

2. 2
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Real time
drought
monitoring
Droughts in
the past
InterDrought
project
Drought risks
in the future
Research
Ecosystem
responses to
drought
Education
awarness,
dissemination
Practise
Society
response to
drought
Intersucho = InterDrought
example of an integrated
drought project
1) WHY
– drought in the past
– expected drought trends;
2) What and how
– integrated drought
monitoring system;
– 5 pillars (incl. remote
systems)
3) To whom
– education applications
– practical applications;
– research applications
4) Future challenges

3. InterDrought project
• 15 years ago
• Mostly supported by Czech agencies (GACR, NAZV…)
• International support (EU – programs – CECILIA, ADAGIO, CLIMSAVE)
• Structure founds – Operation program – partly EU, partly CR project (3 years 2012-
2015)
“Establishment of International Scientific Team
Focused on Drought Research”

4. InterDrought project
InterDrought
project

5. Temperature average for the ČR (1881-2006)
Precipitation average for ČR (1881-2006)
trend
+0.082 °C
Per decade
No trend per
decade
Drought in the past

6. Drought in the past (1961-2000)

7. (0-0,5 m) (0,5-1,0 m)
Drought in the past – relative soil moisture 1961-2012

8. May
July
Sept
April
June
August
(0-1,0 m)
Drought in the past – relative soil moisture 1961-2012

9. +1,0°C
+2,0°C
Drought risks
in the future
Drought in the future : Water balance (prec – reference evapotr)

10. 1961-2000 +2,0, °C
4-years drought
20-years drought
Drought risk in the future?
Drought risks
in the future

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Our answer to the observed trends:
Integrated drought monitoring system:
www.intersucho.cz
- Weekly operated
- 500 x 500 m = 320 000 grids
- based on plenty of data
- All products are for free

12. 12
Integrated drought monitoring system
Real time
drought
monitoring

13. Real time
drought
monitoring
Detail (!) digital terrain model:

14. Integrated drought monitoring
www.intersucho.cz
Real time
drought
monitoring

15. Pilar I: drought intensity based on soil moisture content
Real time
drought
monitoring

16. Pilar I: drought intensity based on soil moisture content
Real time
drought
monitoring

17. www.intersucho.cz
Pilar I: Soil moisture content
Real time
drought
monitoring

18. Pilar I: Soil moisture content (%)

19. Pilar I: … this Sunday – not drought at all (%)
Real time
drought
monitoring

20. Pilar I: Soil moisture content (mm)
Real time
drought
monitoring

21. Spatial definition
To show whole Czech republic is
nice but users want more detail
drought assessment
21
Spatial definition
Real time
drought
monitoring

22. www.intersucho.cz
District level
Real time
drought
monitoring

23. 23
Czech districts (77) – NUTS 4
Real time
drought
monitoring

24. 0 - 40 cm
0 - 100 cm
Czech district – Znojmo NUTS 4
Real time
drought
monitoring

25. 0- 40
cm
0 - 100
cm
Soil moisture Czech district – Znojmo NUTS 4

26. Satelite Terra
- owner: NASA
- data: since 2000
- overflight altitude: 705 km
- Swath width: 2230 km (MODIS)
- resolution: 250 m
Inspired by VegDRI
Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring
Real time
drought
monitoring

28. www.intersucho.cz
Pilar III: Satellite - observations
Real time
drought
monitoring

29. Pilar III: Satellite – observations – vegetation conditations

30. 2000
2012 Really dry years
2014
- Arable land observation
- Monitoring of biomass increase = EVI
- Yield signals picked-up early in season
- 5 weeks – harvest forecast
Terra satellite
(www.nasa.gov)
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
průměr
maximum
minimum
2000
2012
2014
Kondicevegetace(EVI)
Znojmo
Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring
Real time
drought
monitoring

31. Pilar III: Near real time vegetation status monitoring

32. Pilar IV: Long-term climatological prognosis

33. Pilar V: Reported drought impacts – feedback by farmers

34. Challenges: 1. To raise awarness and generate interest
Education
awarness,
dissemination

35. Challenges: 2. to engage and sustain it
• Since November 2014 –
more than 15 meetings with
over 1000 potential users
(from ministers to farmers)
• 10 articles in farmers journals
• (last year)
• 15 scientific papers
• (last 5 years)
• Web page: intersucho.cz
• Goal to have approximately
active 300 respondents by
the end of the year.Education
awarness,
dissemination

36. Challenges: 3. to continue research tempo and sustain it
NEAR TERM RESEARCH PRIORITIES:
• Apply in parallels to statistical also ECMWF and NCAR model based prognosis
of soil moisture with 10 – 15 days of lead time;
• Extend the operational vegetation status monitoring to the whole of Central
Europe (Slovakia will come online during 2015);
• Apply the CMIP5 projections over 21st century to assess the risks.
SUSTAINABILITY
• The Integrated system has generated considerable interests amongst users –
willingness to support it with committing time and resources;
• Base funding should be sufficient till 2020 at least
– …..some drought would help to support the argumentation 

37. Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Daniela Semerádová, Jan Balek, Zdeněk Žalud,
Lenka Bartošová, Eva Kocmánková, Martin Dubrovský, Jan Kyselý, Martin Možný,
Jiří Hostýnek, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Petr Dobrovolný,
Michal Rybníček, Tomáš Kolář, Josef Eitzinger, Herbert Formayer, Roman Bohovic,
Brian Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda, Mike Hayes
,
On behalf of the co-authors:
Thank You for Your attention !