Fourth IDMP CEE workshop: Global IDMP overview by Robert Stefanski

1. 1
World Meteorological Organization
United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and
water resources and related environmental issues.
191 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHS) – Newest Member South Sudan (Dec 2012)
10 major scientific & technical programmes (Secretariat)
8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of
programmes (Experts)
6 Regional Associations involved in implementation

2. Integrated Drought Management
Programme - Background
Launched by WMO and GWP in 2013 at High-Level Meeting on National Drought
Policies (HMNDP) to support implementation of the HMNDP outcomes
[Excerpt of HMNDP final declaration, emphasis added]
• Develop proactive drought impact mitigation, preventive and planning measures,
risk management, fostering of science, appropriate technology and innovation,
public outreach and resource management as key elements of effective national
drought policy
• Promote greater collaboration to enhance the quality of
local/national/regional/global observation networks and delivery systems
• Improve public awareness of drought risk and preparedness for drought
• Consider, where possible [...]risk reduction, risk sharing and risk transfer tools in
drought management plans
• Link drought management plans to local/national development policies

4. Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012),
WMO, WMO- No. 1123
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main
Distribution of (a) number of reported disasters, (b) reported deaths and (c) reported
economic losses (1970–2012)
(a) (b) (c)
Global
44%
6%
35%
6%
5%
4%
Total = 8 835 disasters (1970−2012)
14%
2%
41%
35%
9%
Total = 1 944 653 deaths (1970−2012)
34%
52%
8%
4%
3%
Total = US$ 2 390.7 billion (1970−2012)
(in US$ billion, adjusted to 2012)

5. 1971−1980 1981−1990 1991−2000 2001−2010
Number of reported deaths by decade by hazard type (1971−2010)
241 748
658 905
329 597
387 957
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main
Global
Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012),
WMO, WMO- No. 1123

6. MainWMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012),
WMO, WMO- No. 1123
Regional
Intercomparisons
AFR SAM NCA PAC EURASIA

7.  Proactive rather than Reactive
 Horizontal Integration
 Vertical Integration
 Knowledge Sharing
 Demonstration Projects
 Develop Capacities
Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) - Approach

8. The Cycle of Disaster Management
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

9. Organization that confirmed
their interest to participate in
IDMP (Status November 2014)
•Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO)
•United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD)
•Australian Bureau of Meteorology
•Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
•International Center for Agricultural Research
in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)
•International Commission for Irrigation and
Drainage (ICID)
•International Water Management Institute
(IWMI)
•Joint Research Centre (JRC)
•Mexico’s National Water Commission
(CONAGUA)
•Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
•U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center
(NDMC)
•UNDP Cap-Net
•United Nations Development Progamme
(UNDP)
•United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
•United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP)
•United Nations Office for Disaster Risk
Reduction (UNISDR)
•University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for
Food Institute
•University of Southern Queensland
•UN-Water Decade Programme on Capacity
Development
•World Bank

10. 10
IDMP is part of the Global Framework for
Climate Services
GFCS Goal:
◦ Enable better management of the risks of climate
variability and change and adaptation to climate
change at all levels, through development and
incorporation of science-based climate
information and prediction into planning,
policy and practice.
GFCS Priority Areas:
◦ Agriculture; Disaster risk reduction;
Water; Health

11. IDMP at the Regional and National Level
www.droughtmanagement.info/idmp-activities/

12. IDMP Regional Programmes
and Initiatives
Support action and implementation on the ground, adding to existing efforts
the strength of IDMP and its partners
Central and Eastern Europe (2013): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
Horn of Africa (2014): Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South
Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.
West Africa (2014): First in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, and then share
lessons learned with other neighbouring countries through the WMO
partners, GWP Country Water Partnerships and other partners.
South Asia Drought Monitoring System (2014) with IWMI in Bhutan,
Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka
Central America (2013) Regional workshop leading to training on SPI and
assessment of current drought.
South America (tbc 2015) Regional workshop in Bolivia potentially leading
to follow-up activities with partners.

13. IDMP National Initiatives
- PRONACOSE Mexico: National Program against Drought (PRONACOSE) slated to
run for the next 6 years in Mexico’s 26 basin councils. IDMP will provide technical
advice, capacity building, project management and links to international expertise
and platforms. Work Programme has been developed as part of the
WMO/CONAGUA PREMIA project.
- Support to Turkish Government: In line with the recommendations of the High-
Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in March 2013, the Government of
Turkey through the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) started a process to
formulate a national policy on drought management. IDMP was requested to
provide guidance and international expertise to this process and is contributing with
technical guidance and experiences from the Mexican PRONACOSE and the IDMP
Central and Eastern Europe.

14. Framework of IDMP work on Drought Policies:
National Drought Management Policy Guidelines
• Adapting of 10-step process by Don
Wilhite (National Drought Mitigation
Center at the University of
Nebraska-Lincoln)
• Response to need articulated at
High-level Meeting on National
Drought Policy (HMNDP)
• Template that can be adapted to
national realities and needs
• Building on existing risk
management capacities

17. Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project
To improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub-
seasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-
impact weather events
To promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and
exploitation by the applications community
To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate
research communities to address issues of importance to the
Global Framework for Climate Services

18. Sub-Seasonal forecasts of precipitation
18

19. Operational Extended-range forecasts are improving!

20. Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts
3 weeks behind real-time
Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree)
Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean
variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature
Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available
Database to open in early 2015, initially with 3 models
(ECMWF, NCEP and JMA)
www.s2sprediction.net
S2S Database Description

21. For further information
please visit
www.droughtmanagement.info
idmp@wmo.int