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The Energy – Climate Change Nexus

Dr David Brockway
CHIEF
CSIRO Energy Technology
25 October 2007
Energy & Society



          Clean                Energy
         Energy                Security

                   Australia
                    & Asia




                    Wealth
                    Creation



CSIRO.
Global Temperature Rise
(Temperature Anomalies from 1961 – 1990 Mean)




CSIRO.       Data supplied: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Modern lifestyles are energy demanding



                           Energy consumption
                           per person
          150




          100

                           Energy consumption
                           per dollar of GDP
           50



                                 Historical           Medium   Longer
         Index                                         term     term

                 1970-71   1980-81     1990-91   2001-02 2008-09    2019-20



CSIRO.
GHG Emissions Sources 2000

                                    52
                                     2
                           50                   Other
                                                Nat Gas
                                      5

                                                Petroleum
                                      6
                           40

                                     38
                                                Coal
                           30
                 Percent




                                                               18
                           20
                                                   14


                                                                                7
                           10

                                                                                          3      3
                                                                                                            2
                           0

                                                                                         Waste




                                                                                                 Other
                                                                              Forestry
                                    Energy




                                                                             Land Use,
                                 Stationary




                                                   Transport




                                                                                                         Industrial
                                                               Agriculture
                                (Electricity)




Source: AGO (2002) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
             CSIRO.
CSIRO R&D Priority Outcomes



Cut emissions from energy generation and use

Increase Australia’s transport fuel self-sufficiency

Enhance the value of Australia’s energy endowment

                                    Australia
                                     & Asia




CSIRO.
50% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
          500


          450                    Base case (BAU)
                                 Projection

          400


          350


          300
Mt CO2e




          250


          200


          150
                            Flagship trajectory to
                            achieve 50%
                            reduction in GHG
          100               emissions


           50
                                                            50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000     2010    2020                    2030              2040                  2050
            CSIRO.
Distributed Generation and Energy Management

                        Two way power flow
                                                                     The future
                           Smart meters
                                                             distributed power
                         Intelligent agents
                          Power arbitrage             2 way grid        system
    Base-load power
                                                      transmission lines
                                                      transmission lines
  generation ~ 600 MW
                                                            Solar cells
                                                            Solar cells


Industrial complex /
      factory
                                                          Wind
                                                          farm




                        Commercial                   Hospital / shopping
                                        House /
                         building                        complex
                                       residential
                                         suburb
          Apartment
            block



 CSIRO.
Energy Efficiency and Energy Management
                                                                                               Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                     ..
                                                                                             ural.
                                 Base case (BAU)
                                                                                        truct
                                                                                     &s
                                 Projection                                    ncy
                                                                         fficie
                                                                    rgy e
                                                                Ene
          400


          350


          300
Mt CO2e




          250


          200


          150
                            Flagship trajectory to
                            achieve 50%
                            reduction in GHG
          100               emissions


           50
                                                            50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000     2010    2020                    2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
Distributed Generation
                                                                                                      Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                            ..
                                                                                                    ural.
                                        Base case (BAU)
                                                                                               truct
                                                                                            &s
                                        Projection                                    ncy
                                                                                fficie
                                                                           rgy e
                                                                       Ene
          400
                                                                          Distributed generation
                     Smart house
          350


          300
Mt CO2e




          250


          200


          150
                                   Flagship trajectory to
                                   achieve 50%
                                   reduction in GHG
          100                      emissions


           50
                                                                   50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000           2010     2020                    2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
CSIRO.
Role of Renewables
                                                                                                             Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                                   ..
                                                                                                           ural.
                                               Base case (BAU)
                                                                                                      truct
                                                                                                   &s
                                               Projection                                    ncy
                                                                                       fficie
                                                                                  rgy e
                                                                              Ene
          400
                                                                                 Distributed generation
                     Smart house
          350                                                                               Renewables


          300
Mt CO2e




          250
                          Solar thermal
                          demonstration
          200


          150
                                          Flagship trajectory to
                                          achieve 50%
                                          reduction in GHG
          100                             emissions


           50
                                                                          50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000           2010            2020                    2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
The Entry of Nuclear
                                                                                                             Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                                   ..
                                                                                                           ural.
                                               Base case (BAU)
                                                                                                      truct
                                                                                                   &s
                                               Projection                                    ncy
                                                                                       fficie
                                                                                  rgy e
                                                                              Ene
          400
                                                                                 Distributed generation
                     Smart house
          350                                                                               Renewables

                                                                                                   Nuclear
          300
Mt CO2e




          250
                          Solar thermal
                          demonstration
          200


          150
                                          Flagship trajectory to
                                          achieve 50%
                                          reduction in GHG
          100                             emissions


           50
                                                                          50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000           2010            2020                    2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
Cleaner Fossil Fuel Power Plants


                              Generator
         Boiler
                                                                                             Liquid CO2
                                                Electricity
                                                                                                  CO2
                                                                  Low CO2 flue gas

                                                              Absorber
                                                                                  Stripper
Coal

                                                      Flue gas
                                                     pretreatme
                                                          nt
                                                                           C.W.

                  Flyash
                                          Flue Gas                                                 Reboiler




Thermal efficiency 28 - 33%
CO2 emissions <100 kg/MWh
       CSIRO.
The Major Role of Cleaner Fossil Energy
                                                                                                                    Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                                         ..
                                                                                                                 ural.
                                                      Base case (BAU)
                                                                                                            truct
                                                                                                         &s
                                                      Projection                                   ncy
                                                                                             fficie
                                                                                        rgy e
                                     Capturing and                                  Ene
          400                        long term
                                                                                       Distributed generation
                                     storage of CO2
                     Smart house
          350                                                                                     Renewables

                                                                                                         Nuclear
          300
Mt CO2e




          250
                                                                                                           Fossil
                          Solar thermal
                          demonstration
          200


          150
                                                Flagship trajectory to
                                                achieve 50%
                                                reduction in GHG
          100                                   emissions


           50
                                                                                50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000           2010                   2020                   2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
More Efficient Transport
                                                                                                                         Energy Management
          500


          450                                                                                                             ..
                                                                                                                     ural.
                                                         Base case (BAU)
                                                                                                                truct
                                                                                                             &s
                                                         Projection                                    ncy
                                                                                                 fficie
                                                                                            rgy e
                                                                                        Ene
          400                      Capturing and long term
                                                                                           Distributed generation
                                   storage of CO2
                     Smart house
          350                                                                                         Renewables

                                                                                                             Nuclear
          300
Mt CO2e




          250
                                                                                                                Fossil
                                                   Synthetic
                          Solar thermal
                                                   fuels gaining
                          demonstration
                                                                                              Alte
                                                   market
          200                                                                                     rna
                                                                                                     tive
                                                   share
                                                                                                            fue
                                       Ultrabattery                                                             ls   &v
                                       deployment                                                                      ehi
                                                                                                                          c
                                                                                                                        les
          150                                                                                               Re
                                                    Flagship trajectory to                                    duc
                                                                                                                 ed
                                                    achieve 50%                                                     trav
                                                                                                                        el
                                                    reduction in GHG
          100                                       emissions


           50
                                                                                    50% below 1990 emission levels

           0
            2000           2010                      2020                    2030               2040                           2050
            CSIRO.
Achievements




 CSIRO.
Australian R&D Capability is Under Threat




CSIRO.

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SiS Energy Sources And The Climate Change Nexus Brockway 2007

  • 1. The Energy – Climate Change Nexus Dr David Brockway CHIEF CSIRO Energy Technology 25 October 2007
  • 2. Energy & Society Clean Energy Energy Security Australia & Asia Wealth Creation CSIRO.
  • 3. Global Temperature Rise (Temperature Anomalies from 1961 – 1990 Mean) CSIRO. Data supplied: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • 4. Modern lifestyles are energy demanding Energy consumption per person 150 100 Energy consumption per dollar of GDP 50 Historical Medium Longer Index term term 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02 2008-09 2019-20 CSIRO.
  • 5. GHG Emissions Sources 2000 52 2 50 Other Nat Gas 5 Petroleum 6 40 38 Coal 30 Percent 18 20 14 7 10 3 3 2 0 Waste Other Forestry Energy Land Use, Stationary Transport Industrial Agriculture (Electricity) Source: AGO (2002) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory CSIRO.
  • 6. CSIRO R&D Priority Outcomes Cut emissions from energy generation and use Increase Australia’s transport fuel self-sufficiency Enhance the value of Australia’s energy endowment Australia & Asia CSIRO.
  • 7. 50% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions 500 450 Base case (BAU) Projection 400 350 300 Mt CO2e 250 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 8. Distributed Generation and Energy Management Two way power flow The future Smart meters distributed power Intelligent agents Power arbitrage 2 way grid system Base-load power transmission lines transmission lines generation ~ 600 MW Solar cells Solar cells Industrial complex / factory Wind farm Commercial Hospital / shopping House / building complex residential suburb Apartment block CSIRO.
  • 9. Energy Efficiency and Energy Management Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Ene 400 350 300 Mt CO2e 250 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 10. Distributed Generation Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Ene 400 Distributed generation Smart house 350 300 Mt CO2e 250 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 12. Role of Renewables Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Ene 400 Distributed generation Smart house 350 Renewables 300 Mt CO2e 250 Solar thermal demonstration 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 13. The Entry of Nuclear Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Ene 400 Distributed generation Smart house 350 Renewables Nuclear 300 Mt CO2e 250 Solar thermal demonstration 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 14. Cleaner Fossil Fuel Power Plants Generator Boiler Liquid CO2 Electricity CO2 Low CO2 flue gas Absorber Stripper Coal Flue gas pretreatme nt C.W. Flyash Flue Gas Reboiler Thermal efficiency 28 - 33% CO2 emissions <100 kg/MWh CSIRO.
  • 15. The Major Role of Cleaner Fossil Energy Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Capturing and Ene 400 long term Distributed generation storage of CO2 Smart house 350 Renewables Nuclear 300 Mt CO2e 250 Fossil Solar thermal demonstration 200 150 Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 16. More Efficient Transport Energy Management 500 450 .. ural. Base case (BAU) truct &s Projection ncy fficie rgy e Ene 400 Capturing and long term Distributed generation storage of CO2 Smart house 350 Renewables Nuclear 300 Mt CO2e 250 Fossil Synthetic Solar thermal fuels gaining demonstration Alte market 200 rna tive share fue Ultrabattery ls &v deployment ehi c les 150 Re Flagship trajectory to duc ed achieve 50% trav el reduction in GHG 100 emissions 50 50% below 1990 emission levels 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CSIRO.
  • 18. Australian R&D Capability is Under Threat CSIRO.