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Strategies with Corn, Soybean Meal and Milk Futures Prices Dave Byers [email_address] Galax, VA
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PRELUDE
Got Lamborghini?
Maria Bartiroma Interviews Jim Rogers for Business Week
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MARKET ANALYSIS
What Lies Ahead? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Lies Ahead? ,[object Object]
 
What Lies Ahead? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fundamental Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MARKET TRENDS
Three Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object],[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object],[object Object]
Three Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Secondary Trend ??? $63.00
The Primary Trend: DJIA (2007 - 2009)
Primary Trend and MAs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Primary Trend and MAs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
"THERE WILL BE BLOOD!"
$9.31
Basic Tenets of Primary Trend ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
OPEC
The Primary Trend: DJIA (2007 - 2009)
The Primary Trend: DJIA (2007 - 2009) THE ADMINISTRATION
Comparison of 2009 March Corn and Milk Prices
Comparison of 2009 March Corn and Milk Prices CWT
PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
Dairy Profitability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Farmgate price ($/cwt) COP ($/cwt) Difference ($/cwt) x cwt multiplier = profitability
Multiplier Effect ,[object Object],[object Object],Farmgate price ($/cwt) COP ($/cwt) Difference ($/cwt) x  cwt multiplier  = profitability
C1 C3 C2 Jan 01 (9.99) Jul 03 (11.78) Nov 06 (12.84) DAIRY CYCLES
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Spilt Milk (the ugly side of the multiplier effect)
Profitability and Price for Product ,[object Object],[object Object]
Profitability and Price for Product ,[object Object],“We can’t do anything about the price of milk.”
Farming the Cycles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dairy Cycle (2006-2008) +/- $3.34 Standard deviation 15.79 3-year average 17.44 2008 18.04 2007 11.89 2006 Av Price ($/cwt) Year
Price for Product ,[object Object],[object Object]
PRECISION HEDGING MILK
Precision Hedging
Market Timing ,[object Object]
Market Timing ,[object Object],[object Object]
Market Timing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Timing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Timing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two Critical Objectives ,[object Object]
Two Critical Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object]
M-I-L-K  P-R-I-C-E  F-L-O-O-R 50.00% <$16.28/cwt
M-I-L-K  P-R-I-C-E  F-L-O-O-R 66.67% <$18.00/cwt
Precision Hedging ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PRECISION HEDGING SBM
 
 
 
 
 
Summary ,[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Strategy Comparison - - + + + + + + + + + + Precision Hedging - - - + + + + + - - - - - Marginal Buying - - - - - + + + + + Fractional Buying Cost Avoid the  Worst Prices Never-Ever Miss the Best Prices System
Synopsis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Strategies with Corn, Soybean Meal and Milk Futures Prices Dave Byers [email_address] Galax, VA
 
Primary Trend ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Byers Commodities Canc 090527