8. The Case Study: Execution Example: Probability distribution of project effort in person/months
9. The Case Study: Execution Example: Probability distribution of time in months
10.
11. The Results (II): Are projects more successful when managed as a portfolio? Context: Under effort constraint 1.16 97.76% 84.31% High uncertainty 1.05 98.81% 93.78% Low uncertainty Portfolio (b) Individual projects (a) Ratio of increase (a)/(b) Probability of success Uncertainty level of cost drivers
12. The Results (III): Are projects more successful when managed as a portfolio? Context: Under time constraint 9.13 75.91% 8.31% High uncertainty 5.55 87.52% 15.76% Low uncertainty Portfolio (b) Individual projects (a) Ratio of increase (a)/(b) Probability of success Uncertainty level of cost drivers