Presenter: Shayle Kann, Senior Vice President, GTM Research This session will open the conference with a data-driven, visionary outlook on the U.S. solar market from the head of GTM Research. Bringing together analysis of current trends in project finance, regulation, policy and business strategy, this session will help illuminate solar’s future path in the U.S.

1. The Next Wave of U.S. Solar!
!!!
Shayle Kann!
Senior Vice President, Research!
Greentech Media!
!!
U.S. Solar Market Insight 2014!
San Diego, California!

2. Fifteen Years of Growth…
4
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
4 11 23 45 58 79 105 160 298 382
852
1,919
3,369
4,776
6,476
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Annual PV Installations (MW)
Residential Non-Residential Utility

3. …And an Increasingly Diverse Landscape…
4
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

4. Federal IncentiveState Incentive
Pre-ITC
1%
30% ITC-Driven
99%
No State
Incentive
8%
State
Incentive
92%
…Driven by One Paradigm
Source: GTM Research
+

5. Fortunately, Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever
Best-in-Class
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
$3.60
$2.27
$1.68
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Residential Commercial Utility
Q3 2014 Bottom-Up Average System Price ($/W)
Modules Inverters and AC Subsystem
DC Electrical BOS Structural BOS
Direct Labor Engineering and PII

6. Traditional Grid Parity Analysis Ignores Rate Structures
Connecticut Proves Why That Matters
Source: GTM Research
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
False Parity
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Connecticut Residential - Year One Bill
Impact from PV
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - Full Retail
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - Actual Rate
Grid Parity

7. Here’s How We Calculate Grid Parity
1. Solar Cost! 2. Electricity Bill Impact! 3. Forecasting!
Source: GTM Research
Solar Cost (LCOE)
Modeling
Irradiation Levels
Hourly Customer
Load Profile
Hourly PV
Production Profile
Solar Avoided
Cost Modeling
Solar Input
Forecasts
Electricity Price
Forecasts

8. The Tipping Point:"
Can You Offer a Customer 10%
Year-One Net Savings?

9. A Caveat:
We Assume No State Incentives
But They Do, And Will, Exist

10. 2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
Source: GTM Research
2014 regional system price inputs range from $3.28/W-$3.72/W; WACC 9.6%
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NM
SC

11. 2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
FL
Source: GTM Research
120
100
80
60
40
20
AZ and CA Data Reflect Year-to-Date Residential Installations (Q1-Q3)
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NM
SC
CSI
Funded
Non- 27%
CSI
Funded
73%
State
Incentive
44%
No State
Incentive
56%
0
Q1
2010
Q4
2010
Q3
2011
Q2
2012
Q1
2013
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
(MWdc)
Residential Commercial

12. 2014: Three States Already at the Tipping Point
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NM
SC
Source: GTM Research
2014 regional system price inputs range from $3.28/W-$3.72/W; WACC 9.6%

13. 2016: The Market Begins to Blossom
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
CO
CT
GA
ME
MD
MA
MI
RI
TX
UT
WY
WI
Source: GTM Research
2016 regional system price inputs range from $2.80/W-$3.17/W; WACC 9.6%

14. 2017: ITC Reduction Kills Marginal Markets
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
Source: GTM Research
2017 regional system price inputs range from $2.59/W-$2.87/W; WACC 8.2%

15. ITC Expiration: The Utility Market Feels the Most Pain
Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight
5,267
7,236
791
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2015 2016 2017
MWdc
Contracted Utility PV Pipeline by Planned Operation Date
1.3 GW with a Post-2016 PPA

16. Despite PPA Prices (With the ITC) Consistently Around $50/MWh-$70/MWh
Source: GTM Research U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker
$200
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Utility PV PPA Price ($/MWh)
Contract Execution Date

17. 2017: Retreat to the Southwest!
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
Source: GTM Research
2017 regional system price inputs range from $2.59/W-$2.87/W; WACC 8.2%

18. 2020: The Real Fun Begins
>5% Loss
0%-5% Loss
>10% Savings
0%-10% Savings
FL
AZ
CA
NV
HI
NJ
NH
NM
PA
SC
VT
CO
CT
GA
ME
MD
MA
MI
RI
TX
UT
WY
AL
AR
DE
FL
LA
MN
MS
MO
NE
NY
NC
OH
SD
VA
WI
Source: GTM Research
2020 regional system price inputs range from $2.09/W-$2.35/W; WACC 8.2%

19. Rate Structures Pose the Biggest Risk to Solar Competitiveness
Example: Just-Approved Fixed Charge Increases in Wisconsin
Source: GTM Research
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
New Rate Structures Put
Wisconsin Solar Market Back
Five Years!
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Wisconsin Residential - Year One Bill Impact from PV
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - $9 fixed charge
Net Bill Impact Due to Solar (%) - $16 fixed charge
Grid Parity

20. 28 States “In the Money” by 2020, and 14 at the Tipping
Point
Source: GTM Research
1
3 4
8
4
7
14 14
2
3
4
6
4
6
8
14
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
# of States At or Below Parity - Residential
0%-10% Savings >10% Savings

21. Solar: Meet the Connected Home
Source: GTM Research

22. Thank You!!
!
Shayle Kann!
Senior Vice President, Research!
Greentech Media!
!
Questions? Visit www.gtmresearch.com!
Or contact kann@gtmresearch.com!