Global Ethanol Outlook 2015 from Green Pool Commodities
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Global Ethanol Outlook February 2015 Green Pool Commodities Presentation
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Global Ethanol Outlook 2015 from Green Pool Commodities
- 1. 2015 Global Ethanol Outlook Green Pool Commodity Specialists 9th February 2015 Alister Smith
- 2. Green Pool Commodity Specialists • Relatively new company started late 2011 • Based in Brisbane, Australia • 4 market analysts (+ 1 in Europe ), 1 agronomist, support • Focus on global sugar, ethanol, biofuel feed-stocks • Client base: 90% international/10% Australian clients are producers, traders, processors, manufacturers, banks, funds • Output price reports, analysis, consultancy, statistics re market, balances, trade-flows etc • Previously analytical division of Kingsman SA long term experience in sugar/biofuels/commodities/consultancy
- 3. Global Ethanol Balance Key Factors • Market transitioning from surplus (2014) to deficit (2015) • US output sharply rising & it remains the dominant exporter • EU production supported but decline in demand may ease • support the market • Asia remains the key deficit region with increasing competition to supply markets
- 4. Global Outlook 2013 2014 % 2015 % Production 106,100 111,334 +4.9% 112,444 +1.0% Consumption 104,380 109,379 +4.8% 113,663 +3.9% Fuel 84,474 89,186 +5.6% 93,433 +4.8% Non-fuel 19,906 20,193 +1.4% 20,230 +0.2% Surplus - Deficit 1,720 1,955 1,219- Imports 11,964 10,584 -11.5% 11,421 +7.9% Exports 12,228 11,301 -7.6% 11,147 -1.4% Annual Global Ethanol Balances (mln L) - 25 50 75 100 125 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-Fuel Fuel Global: Ethanol Market Balance bln L
- 5. 2015 regional supply & demand
- 6. 2015 Quarterly Breakdown - 10 20 30 40 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel Global Ethanol Market Balance bln L Fuel Non-fuel Import Export 22,257 22,077 5,165 2,913 2,870 - 4,943 29,034 23,480 4,848 2,905 2,785 827 31,879 23,629 4,712 2,746 2,572 3,711 29,472 23,867 5,533 2,741 2,704 108 112,641 93,053 20,257 11,304 10,932 - 297 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Total 2015 Prodn Consumption Trade Stock ∆
- 7. Brazil demand grows but production steady 2013 2014 2015 Production 27,397 27,809 28,336 Consumption 22,613 26,185 29,300 Fuel 20,441 24,030 27,188 Non-fuel 2,172 2,155 2,112 Trade Import 189 451 730 Export 3,100 1,500 1,003 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel Brazil: Ethanol Market Balance bln L
- 8. -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Brazil: Gasoline Market Tot. Gas/Eth Sales Ann'l Growth (LHS) mln bpe annual growth 1. Overall recovery in fuel market growth - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan00 Jun01 Nov02 Apr04 Sep05 Feb07 Jul08 Dec09 May11 Oct12 Mar14 Minas Gerais Vol (RHS) Minas Gerais Sao Paulo Minas Gerais: Hydrous Sales % Tot. Gasoline Mkt mln L 2. ICMS Tax Changes in Minas Gerais 3. Increase in Anhydrous Blend Rate from 25% to 27% from Feb/Mar 15 4. Re-introduction of CIDE Tax on Gasoline C 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 11 12 13 14 15 16 at 27% at 25% bln L Brazil: Mthly Anhdyrous Demand 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 02 03 04 05 06 07 0809 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Volume (LHS) Market Share bln L Brazil: Mthly Hydrous Demand
- 9. Exports fade and imports grow -1,250 -1,000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 -1250 -1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Imports Exports Brazil: Quarterly Ethanol Trade mln Lmln L 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Thousands mln L Brazilian Ethanol Exports Other Europe Mid East EU 27 E Asia S Asia CBI Nth America
- 10. USA demand grows but production steady 2013 2014 2015 Production 51,868 55,762 55,835 Consumption 51,441 51,747 52,238 Fuel 49,866 50,148 50,590 Non-fuel 1,575 1,599 1,648 Trade Import 1,514 294 590 Export 2,703 3,549 3,943 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel US: Ethanol Market Balance bln L
- 11. Output is Margin Driven 1. Corn Input Prices Remain Near Historical Lows 2. Ethanol Returns at 9½ year Lows 3. Margins are no longer conducive to further growth 4. Stocks only now starting to build 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $/bu Prompt CBOT Corn Futures 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Argo ITT NYH Barges Houston Rail Los Angeles US National Ethanol Prices $/gal US National Ethanol Prices $/gal 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Ethanol Profit Margins vs Prod'n Margin Over Tot. Cost Weekly Prod'n (RHS) $/gal '000 bbl 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 May13 Sep13 Jan14 May14 Sep14 Jan15 mln bbl US Weekly Ethanol S & D vs Stocks Stocks (RHS) Blender Inputs Production '000 bpd
- 12. Exports grow and imports fade -1,250 -1,000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 -1250 -1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Imports Exports US: Quarterly Ethanol Trade mln L - 200 400 600 800 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Nth America Mid East Europe Asia Lat America Africa US Ethanol Exports by Destination mln L
- 13. EU-28 a shrinking market 2013 2014 2015 Production 6,616 7,069 7,301 Consumption 7,941 7,787 7,854 Fuel 5,408 5,257 5,256 Non-fuel 2,533 2,530 2,597 Trade Import 5,457 4,795 4,648 Export 3,879 4,079 4,091 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel EU 28: Ethanol Market Balance bln L
- 14. Production Pressure as Demand Declines 1. Grain Prices Rebounding 2. Crush Margins Under Pressure 3. Gasoline Demand is in Decline 4. Discretionary Demand Under Pressure -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Nov12 Feb13 May13 Aug13 Nov13 Feb14 May14 Aug14 Nov14 /mt EU: T2 Price & Crush Margins Crush Margin - Corn Crush Margin - Wheat FOB T2 (LHS) /m3 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Maize Wheat /mt Prompt EU Wheat and Maize Prices 0 2 4 6 8 10 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 UK Sweden Spain Portugal Norway Netherlands Latvia Italy Ireland Germany France Denmark #REF! Austria Gasoline Use in Selected EU Countries bln L - 5 10 15 20 25 30 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul12 Sep12 Nov12 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Sweden - E85 & Bensin Prices E85 use Bensin 95 E85 SEK/L mln L
- 15. Exports grow and imports fade - 25 50 75 100 125 10 11 12 13 14 All Others Other GSP Plus Bolivia Peru Guatemala Pakistan GSP EBA EU Imports by Duty Access mln L 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul12 Sep12 Nov12 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Africa Asia Middle East North America Latin America Other Europe Other EU28: Exports by Region mln L
- 16. Asia Pacific the deficit grows 2013 2014 2015 Production 13,744 13,879 13,950 Consumption 14,399 15,133 15,497 Fuel 4,596 5,220 5,599 Non-fuel 9,804 9,913 9,898 Trade Import 1,817 2,060 2,478 Export 1,111 940 905 0 5 10 15 20 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel Asia Pacific: Ethanol Market Balance bln L
- 17. 2015 Asian ethanol supply & demand
- 18. Pakistan trade under pressure - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Other Europe Africa East Asia & Oceania EU Middle East Pakistan Ethanol Exports mln L 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 USD/BRL Pakistan Rupee and Brazilian Real USD/PKR USD/BRL USD/PKR
- 19. Japan - ethanol demand rising 2012 578 mln L +2.7% 2013 2014* 591 mln L +1.9% 576 mln L +10.1% (Jan Nov) Brazil 291 50% USA 30 5% Pakistan 133 23% Other Asia 123 21% Brazil 342 58% USA 10 2% Pakistan 126 21% Other Asia 112 19% Brazil 408 71% USA 38 6% Pakistan 91 16% Other Asia 33 6% Other 6 1%
- 20. Korean origins are shifting 2012 284 mln L +5.7% 2013 2014 265 mln L -6.7% 373 mln L +14.7% Brazil 68 24% USA 26 9% Pakistan 89 31% Other Asia 87 31% Other 14 5% Brazil 68 26% USA 5 2% Pakistan 99 37% Other Asia 77 29% Other 16 6% Brazil 91 30% USA 69 23% Pakistan 56 18% Other Asia 52 17% Other 36 12%
- 21. India huge market potential - 1 2 3 4 2013 2014 2015 Production Non-fuel Fuel India: Ethanol Market Balance bln L 2013 2014 2015 Production 3,042 3,058 2,927 Consumption 2,843 3,091 3,260 Fuel 195 422 597 Non-fuel 2,648 2,669 2,663 Trade Import 34 101 515 Export 233 152 171 0% 1% 2% 3% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14E 15 India: Fuel Ethanol Consumption Biofuel Consumption Implied Blending Rate mln litres
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