Hosted by Gowlings - July 10th, 2014: Annual Greenhouse Gas Progress Report 2014 as presented by Gord Miller, Environmental Commissioner of Ontario.

2. ONTARIO’S NIR RESULTS 2012
GHG emissions will exceed the target by 28 Mt in 2020. This is a
significant amount; it is almost twice the total emissions from the
electrical sector in 2012.

3. CCAP Targets 2007
1990 Reference Year Emissions 177 Mt
• 6% below 1990 by 2014 (to 166 Mt)
• 15% below 1990 by 2020 (to 150 Mt)
• 80% below 1990 by 2050 (to 35 Mt)

6. Transportation
• Largest sector of emissions
• Grown substantially since 1990
• 2007 CCAP called for a 19 Mt by 2020
• In 2012 that became a 3.9 Mt Why?
• We must begin to shift away from a carbon
intense transportation system

7. Industry
• Down but largely responding to the economy
• On slight decline in energy and GHG intensity
• Clearly the industry is not happy with the
stakeholder consultation process to date
• Continental trend seems to be toward Cap &
Trade but there has been no decisions on this
or development of offset protocols in Ontario

8. Buildings
• There have been energy efficiency
improvements for new buildings in the OBC
• Two new funding initiatives for energy
retrofits on existing buildings:
– Local Improvement Charges
– On-bill Financing (thru energy utilities)
• Initiatives needed to make buildings solar and
plug-in ready

9. Electricity
• LTEP shows growing reliance on natural gas
(NG) without consideration of GHG
implications
• OPA and OPG estimates of how much NG will
be burnt don’t jive

11. Electricity
• LTEP shows growing reliance on natural gas
(NG) without consideration of GHG
implications
• OPA and OPG estimates of how much NG will
be burnt don’t jive
• And then there is the strange projection of
cessation in growth of renewables after 2025

13. Agriculture
• Emissions are flat between 9 and 10 Mt per
year – largely a function of our agricultural
technology
• Tremendous opportunities exist to sequester
large amounts of carbon by developing
healthy soils rich with microorganisms
• Soil management coupled with other best
practices could sequester 9 Mt/yr by 2020

14. Waste
• Current diversion rate of organic waste is
relatively low – most still going to landfill
• A ban of organics in landfill is needed
• Methane collection from existing landfills
should continue
• But, there are problems with fugitive
emissions especially if extraction is induced

15. Four Big Ideas
That Are Framing and Changing the
Policy Discussion on Climate Change

16. THE SCIENCE IS CERTAIN
The science of our climate systems has developed substantially to much
higher degrees of certainty and the data are now demonstrating the
shifts in climate and oceanic conditions that are in progress.

17. IPCC Report 2014
• Land and ocean surface temperatures are
rising as predicted

19. IPCC Report 2014
• Land and ocean surface temperatures are
rising as predicted
• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is
rising

21. IPCC Report 2014
• Land and ocean surface temperatures are
rising as predicted
• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is
rising
• The oceans are acidifying

22. IPCC Report 2014
• Land and ocean surface temperatures are
rising as predicted
• The cryosphere is melting and sea level is
rising
• The oceans are acidifying
• Extreme weather events are occuring and
documented in the data

23. Northern Hemisphere Land Summer Temperature Anomalies

27. UNBURNABLE CARBON
In order to have a 66% chance of preventing a 2oC rise in average
temperature total cumulative CO2 emissions cannot exceed 2900 Gt …
just under 1900 Gt have already been emitted leaving a remaining
budget of only 1000 Gt …

29. CHANGES IN INSURANCE RISK
Climate change is presenting a fundamental challenge to the insurance
industry, which could mean that certain regions in Canada or asset
categories are uninsurable as risks are too high …

30. ADAPTATION/MITIGATION
TERMINOLOGY HAS CHANGED
The nations of the world have been engrossed in dogged debate about
the need to reduce GHGs to mitigate climate change to levels that would
be “ok.” This is not an option anymore …