1. Global Challenges And water Security:Threats and Opportunities Ismail Serageldin GWP – Stockholm 4 September 2010

2. Outline Prologue: Global Challenges: Climate Change Hunger Health The Water Dimension: How Scarce Is Water? How Much For Agriculture? Water And Sanitation On Reform Actions To Take Envoi

3. Prologue

4. 1995:

5. “The wars of this century have been for Oil, but the wars of the next century will be for water…”Ismail SerageldinStockholm – 6 August 1995

6. “…unless we change the way we manage water!”Ismail SerageldinStockholm – 6 August 1995

7. 1996:

8. 1996:GWP

9. "Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend." — Albert Camus (1913-1960)

10. 2010 1996

11. 2020 2010 1996

12. “…unless we change the way we manage water!”Ismail SerageldinStockholm – 6 August 1995

13. A Global Consensus was formed

14. UN Millennium Summit 2000 The MDGs

15. Millennium Development Goals Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender equality and empower women Reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Develop a global partnership for development

16. But Our Distorted Values Continue To Prevail … For now!

17. Distorted Values ## 17

18. With >1 Billion Persons Hungry 18

19. Military Spending is 14X more than Development Assistance…

21. 21

22. 22

23. 23

24. Books Or Bombs?

25. Yet

28. In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind.

30. Enormous GAPS between Rich and poor… And GROWING in most countries

31. ## 30

32. ## 31

33. $2.20 / day $0.90 / day

34. Extreme Insensitivity…

35. Modern Luxury

36. Modern Luxury

37. Modern Luxury

38. Modern Excess! Solid Gold $4.8m Toilet Source: Japan Times 4 October 2009

39. That while some 2 billion people do not have proper sanitation!

40. But, despite that, we shall succeed!

41. Global Challenges

42. Global Challenges Climate Change Hunger Health

43. Global Challenges Climate Change Hunger Health

44. Climate Change The Most serious Issue Facing Humanity

46. GHG emissions are a key contributor

48. Hurricane Bonnie

49. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

50. Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

51. Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”? NO!

53. Should we be concerned? YES!

54. Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

56. Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

57. How serious is the problem? VERY!

60. Sea Level Rise Last 30 Years: 1.8 mm / yr Last 10 Years: 3.1 mm / yr

61. The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of saltsReaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts

62. Impact on Nile Delta

66. Queuing for water… The new realities

68. Climate Change and Food Security:Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005 Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15

71. Extreme Variability : Africa’s Burden Kenya: Annual Rainfall Variation about the Average 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980

72. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

73. Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990 Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

75. But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and Desertification

76. Drought

78. Ecosystem Collapse

79. So why do people deny the issue?Why do governments refuse to act?

81. Lobbying Congress Between 2003 and 2008 Lobbyists against climate change increases from 320 to 1600 Meantime, environmental lobbyists increased from 55 to 160 So anti-climate change lobby deployed 3 lobbyists per legislator and 10 times more than environmentalists lobbyists.

82. CopenhagenDecember 2009

83. We need urgent action on bothMitigation&Adaptation

84. Mitigation: Reducing Emissions

85. Global Challenges Climate Change Hunger Health

86. HUNGER!Over one billion persons today!

87. Over One Billion persons are chronically malnourished!

89. Drought

92. Drought Devastates Agriculture

93. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Carribean and the USA

98. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Carribean and the USA

102. Droughts and Floods?

103. Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist

104. We observe… Floods in Pakistan Droughts in Russia Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

105. Hurricanes and floods in USA

106. All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on food production

107. The Food on which we all depend

108. That leads to More Hunger

110. Wheat Global Production and Consumption(Millions of tons) Years Produced Russia Consumed Stocks 2006-07 596 45 616 131 2007-08 611 49 617 125 2008-09 683 64 643 166 2009-10 680 62 652 187 2010-11 646 45 665 175 Source: USDA 2010

111. World Food Price Index(Source: BBC 3 September 2010) 191 176 152 98 2010 2008 2003 2009

112. 700 July-August 480 June

113. So… TODAY Russia bans food exports Food prices are rising sharply (But still less than 2008) Mozambique has food riots China calls on its farmers to produce more vegetables FAO calls a special meeting about the rising food crisis

114. The food price crisis exposed the weakness and fragility of the current world system

115. Reform Policies And Markets: Where is fair trade? Distorted Trade: OECD subsidies and the Doha Round Shortfalls in production, drought in Australia and elsewhere, low global food stocks …against rising demand for food and feed Add the switching to biofuels:

117. Reform Policies And Markets: Where is fair trade? Distorted Trade: OECD subsidies and the Doha Round Shortfalls in production, drought in Australia and elsewhere, low global food stocks …against rising demand for food and feed Add the switching to biofuels:

118. Prices spiked and Countries slapped on export bans!

119. Not Just for Food

120. Increasing demand for feed

121. Reform Policies And Markets: Where is fair trade? Distorted Trade: OECD subsidies and the Doha Round Shortfalls in production, drought in Australia and elsewhere, low global food stocks …against rising demand for food and feed Add the switching to biofuels:

122. Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008 food price spike

123. It is wrong to burn the food of the poor to drive the cars of the rich!

124. We must move to second generation biofuels

125. We need more food production

126. Global Challenges Climate Change Hunger Health

127. Let’s look at income and health

128. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

129. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

130. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

131. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

132. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Policy Counts! Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

133. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Policy Counts! Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

134. Key Actions for Public health • Vaccination Control of infectious diseases • Healthier mothers and babies • Clean drinking water • Overall hygiene Clean water and sanitation are crucial for this agenda!

135. The Water Dimension

136. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

137. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

138. How Scarce Is Water?

139. Fresh water is precious

140. Fresh Water Is Only 2.5% of All Water Only 2.5% is fresh water 97.5% is salt water

141. Two thirds of that is locked in Glaciers and Ice Caps

142. 2/3 of the remaining part is lost to Evapotranspiration

143. That leaves only 40,700 KM3 Potentially Available to people

144. Of that 20% are too remote

145. Of the accessible part 3/4 come as floods and are not readily useable

146. With dams, etc. Total water available to humans sustainably is about 12,500 km3 Of the 80% or 32,900 km3 accessible 1/4 available sustainably 3/4 floods 8,200 Dams, etc. 4,300 12,500 km3

147. Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km3

148. Total water available sustainably: 12,500 km3 About 35% directly used by people About 19% used instream (to dilute pollution, sustain fisheries, maintain wetlands, etc) Therefore, more than 50% or 6,250 km3 is currently used

149. Per Capita Availability Shows Huge Variation Country/region Water availability > 10,000 m3/year North America Egypt <1,000 Jordan <200 Syria’s water table has been declining one meter every year for the past 30 years!

150. Regional per capita availability of water is declining ‘000 m3 16 Africa 14 12 10 World 8 Asia 6 4 2 MENA 0 1960 1990 2025

152. Current Mismanagement

153. Fragmentation by Use In each country at least 6, and sometimes as much as twenty, agencies are involved with water management

159. International fragmentation About 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries, highlighting the need for collaboration in water management

161. Water Use And The Environment

162. Rising Water Use In The 20th Century, Population Grew Three-fold, But Water Use Grew Six-fold!

163. Human Activity Has Had an Impact on Both the Hydrological Cycle and the Quality of Water

164. Three Gorges Construction

165. Storage Capacity in cu.m. / person USA 7000 Australia 5000 So. Africa 700 Ethiopia 25 Kenya 4

166. Resulting problems Unsustainable environmental practices Much waste, especially in agriculture Poor do not have access to clean water and sanitation – and pay more than rich for the little they get Polluters and users are not paying the social and environmental cost

167. The Yellow river did not reach the sea 220 days in 1997!

168. In the last 100 years 50% of the world’s wetlands have been lost to development.

169. Freshwater fish are going extinct at five times the rate of marine fish species

174. Pollution

181. On Average, the Poor Pay 20 Times Per Unit of Water What the Rich Pay!

183. Quality and Quantity of Water:Pollution Reduces Available/useable water

184. Pollution!

186. Water Quality Water quality is as important as water quantity and must be factored in Many polluters do not pay the cost of their pollution Society bears the cost directly (treatment facilities to clean the water) and indirectly (disease, opportunities lost to reuse the water)

187. Fundamental Principles User Pays Polluter pays

188. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

189. How Much for Agriculture?

190. INDUSTRY RESERVOIR LOSSES MUNICIPAL AGRICULTURE

191. 5 % INDUSTRY 6 % MUNICIPAL 89 % AGRICULTURE Source World Bank WDI 2002

193. (Liters/day) Domestic Food Production

194. One Calorie = One Liter

196. Underground water is being mined at unsustainable rates and 10% of world grain production depends on unsustainable aquifer withdrawals.

202. Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries Today accounts for 40% of all crop production 60% of cereals Over the next 30 years, to meet the demands of a larger world population, we must increase: arable irrigated land by 22%, and water withdrawals by 14%

204. Water Use Efficiency

205. Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture is Low

207. Many Transfers From main Source to Irrigation System (T-1) From Irrigation to local canal (T-2) From Local canal to field (T-3) From Field to plant (T-4) Plant uptake (T-5)

208. Water Use Efficiency = (T-1) x (T-2) x (T-3) x (T-4) x (T-5)

209. Water Use Efficiency = 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8= 0.33

210. Water Use Efficiency = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9= 0.59

211. Changing the Way We Manage Water

212. Workable Approaches

214. More crop per drop!

215. Crop yield per unit of waterwheat kg/cu.m 2.2 0.8 0.3 RAINFED IRRIGATED SUPPLEMENTAL IRRIGATION Source: ICARDA

217. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

218. Water is re-used multiple times

219. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

222. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

226. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

227. Selecting The Most Appropriate Cropping Patterns

228. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

233. Precision Farming

234. Increasing Water Use Efficiency Reuse of drainage water from irrigated fields (as in Egypt) Better management of the System (less losses) More efficient delivery techniques More appropriate cropping patterns Precision farming on water use

235. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

236. Ancient Times Ca 2500 BC: Flush toilets were first used in the Indus Valley Civilization. The cities of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro had a flush toilet in almost every house, attached to a sophisticated sewage system. Ca 1800 BC: Flush toilet constructed at Knossos on Minoan Crete Ca 1400 BC: Flush toilets used in the Minoan city of Akrotiri Ca 850 BC: Flush toilets in Bahrain Island. 1st to 5th centuries AD: Flush toilets were used throughout the Roman Empire. Examples include those at Vindolanda on Hadrian's Wall in Britain. With the fall of the Roman Empire, the technology was lost in the West.

237. Ancient Times: Latrine At Knossos

238. Roman Public Toilets, Ca. 315 AD

239. 1206: The Arab inventor Al-Jazari, 1206: The Arab inventor, Al-Jazari, invented a hand washing device incorporating the flush mechanism now used in modern flush toilets. His device features an automaton by a basin filled with water. When the user pulls the lever, the water drains and the automaton refills the basin.

240. Rediscovery In The West 1596: Sir John Harington published A New Discourse of a Stale Subject, Called the Metamorphosis of Ajax, describing a forerunner to the modern flush toilet installed at his house at Kelston. The design had a flush valve to let water out of the tank, and a wash-down design to empty the bowl. The Ajax was not taken up on a wide scale in England, but was adopted in France under the name Angrez.

241. Royal Rejection Sir john Harrington installed one of his flush toilets for his godmother Elizabeth I of England at Richmond Palace, She refused to use it because it made too much noise. Elizabeth I (1533-1601)

242. Evolving to the modern Design 1738: A flush toilet was invented by J. F. Brondel. 1775: Alexander Cummings invented the S-trap 1777: Samuel Prosser patented the 'plunger closet'. 1778: Joseph Bramah invented a hinged valve or 'crank valve' that sealed the bottom of the bowl, and a float valve system for the flush tank. His design was used mainly on boats. 1819: Albert Giblin invented siphon discharge system. 1852: J. G. Jennings invented a wash-out design with a shallow pan emptying into an S-trap. 1857: The first American patent for a toilet, the 'plunger closet', was granted.

243. 1860: Royal Monopoly! An early watercloset on the European continent was imported from England. It was installed in the rooms of Queen Victoria in castle Ehrenburg (Coburg, Germany) she was the only one who was allowed to use it. Victoria (1819-1901)

244. The Crystal Palace The first popularized water closets were exhibited at The Crystal Palace and these became the first public toilets. They had attendants dressed in white and customers were charged a penny for use. This is the origin of the phrase "To spend a penny".

245. 1880s: Thomas Crapper & “crap” Although he was not the original inventor, Crapper popularized the siphon system for emptying the tank, Some of Crapper's designs were made by Thomas Twyford. The similarity between Crapper's name and the much older word crap is a coincidence. Thomas Crapper (1836-1910)

251. The Modern Toilet Is Born 1885: Thomas Twyford built the first one-piece china toilet using the flush-out siphon design by J. G. Jennings. 1906: William Elvis Sloan invented the Flushometer, which used pressurized water directly from the supply line for faster recycle time between flushes. The original Royal Flushometer is still in use today in public restrooms worldwide. 1907: Thomas MacAvity Stewart of Saint John, New Brunswick patented the vortex-flushing toilet bowl, which creates a self cleansing effect.

253. Clean Water and Sanitation is one of the best Health investments that we can make

254. Sanitation does NOT have to be the water-borne type we all got used to!

255. Costs will be minimal compared to gains and future losses avoided

258. All Actors Must Participate

259. Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…

260. RECALL:Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…

261. Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1987 1980 1970 1961 1950 Policy Counts! Life Expectancy (Thousands) Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

262. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

263. The Water Dimension How scarce is water? How much for agriculture? Health: water and sanitation Reform

264. On Reform

265. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

268. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

269. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

270. P4: People Public Private Partnerships Putting people first Mobilizes stakeholders and involves them in the design and implementation of the PPP Recognizes community action

271. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

272. New Water Sources(US cents /cu.m) Reduce demand = 10 - 70 leakage repair = 10 - 70 Desalination = 20 - 40 (brackish water) Wastewater reuse = 10 – 50 (Only for irrig. & some industry) Desalination = 50 – 90 (sea water) Source World Bank est. 2003 in WB,from scarcity through reform to Security, for WWF3, Kyoto Japan 2003, p.13

273. Using Treated Wastewater Sorghum and Topinambur irrigated with Treated Wastewater in Sorbulak area, Kazakhstan – Courtesy ICARDA

274. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

275. Reforms IWRM More efficient use of water Promoting P4 New water (Alternative sources) Regional and international cooperation

276. Essential Questions Always ask: Who pays? Who benefits? Always trace the shifting and incidence of taxation and subsidies

278. Questions on Dams

288. How To Deal With Water Conflicts?

289. Recognize the domain:Nature deals with Basins Avoid fragmentation Look at all the cleavages: & Involve all stakeholders Focus on joint management and quality improvement rather than quantity allocation first Build on trust Keep process going

290. Innovate! Unleash the Creativity of the Various Actors!

291. It Can Be Done!

292. Actions to Take

293. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation vs. remedial actions Harness new technologies Link global and local

296. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation vs. remedial actions Harness new technologies Link global and local

297. Consumption

298. Destruction

299. Waste & Pollution

300. Poverty & Social Marginalization

302. Dialogue & Cooperation No More Wars!

303. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation vs. remedial actions Harness new technologies Link global and local

304. More crop per drop!

306. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation vs. remedial actions Harness new technologies Link global and local

307. Immediate Improvements

308. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation AND Adaptation Harness new technologies Link global and local

309. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation AND Adaptation Harness new technologies Link global and local

313. New technologies Nano technologies Remote sensing Biotechnology And much more…

314. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation AND Adaptation Harness new technologies Link global and local

316. Think of creating Water Markets

317. Locally: Users and rights holders within one water administration district (basin)

318. Globally: Better international trade regime for agricultural commodities (virtual water)

319. Strategic Approach Public Education Behavioral change Address priorities Immediate improvements Mitigation vs. remedial actions Harness new technologies Link global and local

320. Envoi

321. ## 320 Dare to dream!Dare to be bold!

322. ## 321 We can do things differently…

323. We Can Make It Happen 322

324. ## 323 We Can Succeed

325. Antarctica

327. Bring in the Bulldozers!

329. Money!

333. 1963

334. I Have A Dream… “I have a dream that my …children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”.

335. Dreams can be realized!

336. “The Audacity Of Hope”

337. “ Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it is the only thing that ever has”. – Margaret Mead

338. Working All Together

339. There is so much we can do for a whole generation

340. For The Whole World…

341. With your help… It can be done!

342. Our Team Limited size, limited resources

343. The Opposition Large size, unlimited resources

344. But we will surprise the World!

345. Thank You

347. The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of these pictures