The Global CCS Institute was pleased to announce the release of our annual Global Status of CCS: 2014 report, and invite you to join the Institute’s Europe, Middle East and Africa Team for a webinar summarising the main themes of the report.
The Institute’s General Manager for the region, Andrew Purvis, presented a summary of the report, and was then joined by a number of our subject matter experts to discuss issues raised during the presentation by our global and regional audience.
Chairman: John Scowcroft, Executive Adviser/ UNFCCC Specialist
Presentation: Andrew Purvis, General Manager
Expert Panel:
Kirsty Anderson: Public Engagement
Silvia Vaghi: Policy and Regulation
Guido Magneschi: Capture
Chris Consoli: Storage
The report provides a detailed overview of the current status of CCS projects worldwide and provides a comprehensive overview of global and regional developments in CCS technologies and the policies, laws and regulations that must drive the demonstration and deployment of technologies to support global climate mitigation efforts.
Providing a number of key recommendations for decision makers, The Global Status of CCS: 2014 report is an important reference guide for industry, government, research bodies and the broader community.
From Event to Action: Accelerate Your Decision Making with Real-Time Automation
Webinar: The Global Status of CCS: 2014 - Overcoming challenges in Europe
1. GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS: 2014
A WATERSHED PERIOD FOR CCS - OVERCOMING CHALLENGES IN EUROPE
Andrew Purvis, GM EMEA
19th November 2014
2. Andrew Purvis
General Manager – Europe, Middle East and Africa
Andy joined the Global CCS Institute in September 2013 following
a career in the global steel industry.
Andy spent the last five years working in BlueScope Steel in
Australia as Vice President Environment, responsible for
environmental performance and greenhouse policy. He also
managed BlueScope Steel’s input to the Australian Government’s
Climate Change policy development program.
His previous roles include working as Senior Manager, Technology
and Environment at the Brussels-based World Steel Association, a
dynamic and complex member-led industry association with a
strong focus on environmental, technology and corporate
responsibility. He also worked as a Research Manager within the
British and Dutch Steel industries.
Andy has a Bachelor of Engineering from Leeds University and a
Master of Business Administration from the University of Warwick.
3. Q&A Panel: Institute subject matter experts
Kirsty Anderson: Public Engagement
Silvia Vaghi: Policy and Regulation
Guido Magneschi: Capture
Chris Consoli: Storage
4. Questions
We will collect questions during
the presentation.
Your MC will pose these question
to the panel of presenters after
the presentation.
Please submit your questions
directly into the GoToWebinar
control panel.
5. GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS: 2014
A WATERSHED PERIOD FOR CCS - OVERCOMING CHALLENGES IN EUROPE
Andrew Purvis, GM EMEA
19th November 2014
6. The Global CCS Institute
We are an international membership
organisation.
Offices in Washington DC, Brussels,
Beijing and Tokyo. Headquarters in
Melbourne.
Our diverse international
membership consists of:
o governments,
o global corporations,
o small companies,
o research bodies, and
o non-government organisations.
Specialist expertise covers the
CCS/CCUS chain.
OUR MISSION
To accelerate the
development,
demonstration and
deployment of CCS
globally.
1
Authoritative
knowledge
sharing 2
Fact-based,
influential
advice and
advocacy
3
Create
favourable
conditions to
implement
CCS
7. Fossil fuels must be part of the climate solution
Demand for fossil fuels remains robust and supply is abundant
Fossil fuel proved reserves:
6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent
Reserves to production ratio:
~75 years
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012
IEA World Energy Outlook, 2013 (New policies scenario)
8. CCS is a vital element of a low-carbon energy future
Source: IEA Energy Technology
Perspectives (2014)
A transformation in how we generate and use energy is needed
Gt CO2 emissions
9. The case for CCS – independent voices
“Many models could not achieve atmospheric concentration levels of about 450ppm
CO2eq by 2100 if additional mitigation is considerably delayed or under limited availability
of key technologies, such as bioenergy, CCS and their combination (BECCS)”
Summary report of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation
of Climate Change, 2014.
“A robust finding [of the study] is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and
limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic
costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels...”
The Energy Modelling Forum (EMF) 27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy
Strategies, 2013
“… We now need to shift to a higher gear in developing CCS into a true energy option, to
be deployed in large scale. It is not enough to only see CCS in long-term energy scenarios
as a solution that happens some time in a distant future. Instead, we must get to its true
development right here and now.”
Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director, International Energy Agency. Foreword to the
Technology Roadmap: Carbon Capture and Storage, 2013
10. Mitigation cost increases in scenarios with limited
availability of technologies
Percentage increase in total discounted mitigation costs (2015-2100)
relative to default technology assumptions – median estimate
2100 concentrations
(ppm CO2eq)
no CCS
nuclear
phase out
450 138% 7% 6% 64%
Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, November 2014.
limited
solar/wind
limited
bioenergy
4 8 8 8
Symbol legend – fraction of models successful in producing scenarios (numbers indicate number of successful models)
All models
successful
Between 80 and
100% of models
successful
Between 50 and
80% of models
successful
Less than 50% of
models successful
11. Large-scale CCS projects by region or country
Early
planning
Advanced
planning
Construction Operation Total
North America 5 6 6 9 26
China 8 4 - - 12
Europe 2 4 - 2 8
Gulf Cooperation
Council
- - 2 - 2
Rest of World 4 - 1 2 7
Total 19 14 9 13 55
North America, China and UK (with 5) have the most projects
12. Actual and expected operation dates for projects in
operation, construction and advanced planning
ROAD
Sinopec
Shengli
Lost Cabin
Lula
Sleipner Snøhvit
ACTL Sturgeon
Operating 2016 2017
2015
Don Valley
EOR
Dedicated Geological
Power
Generation
Chemical
production
Iron and steel
production
Synthetic
natural gas
Fertiliser
production
Oil refining
Natural gas
processing
2014-2015 is a watershed period for CCS – it is a reality in the power sector and
additional project approvals are anticipated
Hydrogen
production
2018 2019 2020
= 1Mtpa of CO2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity)
Coal-to-liquids
* Injection currently suspended
Boundary
Dam
Medicine
Bow
Kemper
Petra
Nova
Sargas
Texas
TCEP Peterhead
White Rose
HECA
Illinois Industrial
Yanchang
Sinopec
Qilu
Abu Dhabi
ACTL Agrium
Coffeyville
Century
Plant
Enid
Fertilizer
Val Verde
Air Products
Shute Creek
In Salah*
Uthmaniyah
Quest
Gorgon Spectra
Petro China
Jilin
Great
Plains
FutureGen 2.0
13. Pathway to CCS deployment
New horizons Realising the
portfolio
Widespread
deployment
Decisions made at start
of decade are now
bearing fruit
Ensure conditions are
supportive for projects
in advanced planning
2014 and 2015 are
watershed years for CCS
Decisions and actions
required now to lay policy,
legal and infrastructure
foundations for post-2020
project portfolio
2010 – 2015 2016 – 2020 2020 →
14. Regional analysis – North America
Has well over half the large-scale projects in operation or under construction.
Home to all three of the world’s large-scale CCS power projects in operation
or under construction.
CO2-EOR providing significant business case support.
Policy actions and incentives to drive CCS deployment must complement
regulatory action on emissions standards.
US DOE supports an extensive R&D program into CCS technologies.
Brazil and Mexico advancing CCS/CCUS programs.
15. Regional analysis – Asia Pacific
China follows the US as the most active country in CCS/CCUS.
The world’s largest dedicated geological storage project – the Gorgon Carbon
Dioxide Injection Project in Australia – is planned to be operational in 2016.
Japan and Korea have CCS activities at pilot and demonstration scale:
o Japan – the Tomakomai and Osaki CoolGen projects are in construction
o Korea – KEPCO is testing advanced capture technologies
A key focus is increasing knowledge of storage potential in the region.
Legal and regulatory advances are required in some jurisdictions to provide
greater certainty to project proponents.
16. Regional analysis – Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
GCC countries are at an early stage of CCS/CCUS deployment.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have significant projects.
The UAE hosts the world’s first CCS/CCUS project in the iron and steel sector.
The focus of CCS/CCUS activity in the region is two-fold:
o validate large-scale projects under local conditions
o support for R&D activities
Confidence from these programs is a key driver for longer-term deployment.
17. Regional analysis – Europe
CCS ambition at start of the decade has not been realised.
Recognition of CCS in the October 2014 European Council conclusions is a
positive sign of support.
CCS projects in the UK are progressing and policy makers are developing
mechanisms to support CCS in the power and industrial sectors.
European projects in planning are important contributors to a global portfolio
– all are in the power sector and plan to use offshore geological storage.
The Dutch ROAD project is critical for CCS in mainland Europe.
18. CO2 capture – focus on cost
First generation projects will deliver important lessons.
Continued R&D activities – on materials, processes and equipment – will
help drive down costs.
Collaboration crucial to achieve cost and performance goals.
Next-generation technologies ready for the 2020-2025 timeframe.
19. CO2 storage – focus on timing
EOR providing support to current wave of CCS projects.
Global deployment will require significant geological storage.
2°C scenario requires over 2Gt annual storage by 2030, over 7Gt by 2050.
Greenfields sites can take up to 10 years to assess to FID standard.
Currently, industry has no incentive to undertake storage exploration.
20. Policy and regulatory support is vital
• Achieving climate goals without CCS would incur substantial additional costs
- or not be possible.
• Current large-scale CCS project activity is supported by public funding
programs established towards the end of the last decade.
• Looking forward, a strong policy, legal and regulatory environment will
incentivise and provide predictability for investors in CCS projects.
• Action is needed now if we are to deliver projects in the next decade
• The new international climate agreement under development will be an
important foundation stone.
• Regional and national policy settings should be technology neutral to ensure
that CCS is not disadvantaged relative to other technological solutions.
21. Strong policy drives investment
Clean energy investment between 2004-2013
USD billion
20
1929
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
CCS All clean energy
• Scale of renewables investment
is instructive
• CCS has not enjoyed
commensurate policy support
• EOR has provided impetus in
North America
• Policy parity is essential
• How do we get CCS onto a
similar curve?
Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance as shown in IEA presentation “Carbon Capture and Storage:
Perspectives from the International Energy Agency”, presented at National CCS week in Australia, September 2014.
22. Recommendations for decision makers
Near-term policy support critical to move advanced projects into construction.
Strong, sustainable emission reduction policies that give investors confidence
to invest in CCS are needed for longer-term deployment. These policies must
be technology neutral.
Programs that encourage the exploration of significant storage resources are
needed to give storage certainty and support timely deployment.
Substantial emissions reductions are required in non-OECD countries -
focused effort is required to increase project activity in these economies.
CCS is the only technology that can achieve large reductions in CO2 emissions
from industries such as iron and steel and cement. Urgent attention must be
given to policies that incentivise deployment of CCS in such industries.
23. Our call to action for 2015
It is time to move the agenda forward:
CCS in the power sector is now a reality
We now have 50% more projects than at the start of the decade
Next generation CCS needs decisions now
We must all take today’s messages and promote CCS
Challenge is not technology – it is policy and support
CCS community must build on recent successes
23
OUR CALL TO ACTION IS TO
ACCELERATE CCS AROUND THE WORLD
24. The Global Status of CCS: 2014
The Global Status of CCS: 2014 – Key Institute publication
This year’s report:
Provides a comprehensive overview of global
and regional developments in large-scale CCS
projects, in CCS technologies and in the policy,
legal and regulatory environment.
Introduces and links to project descriptions for
around 40 lesser scale ‘notable’ CCS projects.
Makes recommendations for decision makers.
The full report is available online, including
supporting resources and data
25. Questions / Discussion
Please submit your questions in
English, directly into the
GoToWebinar control panel.
For those not so familiar
Mission simple and clear
Important to contextualise why CCS matters
Where E comes from and W it goes to
These set of charts really tell the story
R to P ratio 75 years, consistent for decades, as soon as we use, we find more
Also primary energy demand soared, despite RES investment FF ration same, in future similar
Cf science says reduce
WHY must move fwd with CCS
More IEA work
Energy modelling, achieve 2 deg, CCS 14%
RES all othe rimportsant
Other voices, indepdnant
IPCC 5th assessment important, over half models used said COULD NOT achieve by 2100
In other words scientists say no CCS , no two degrees
Also con EMF
Iea summarised well
GO back to IPCC report
Table find in report, overlook by many
Point out
11 models they look at , cost without ccs +138%, pay 1.5 times more!
More telling 7 of 11 said you couldn’t!
Most sig technology to deploy is CCS!
NA leads away yet again, 4 or 5
9 op, 6 under cons, 26 total
China in 2nd, remarkable story, growth, no where to 3rd to 2nd, 12 projects, some will move to FID over the next 12 months
Europe, challenging
Import to pay tribute to the gov of the UK, CCS commitment is clear, backed real money and real policy action
Accounts for greatest reason for opt in the region
GCC warrants mention, two projects in AB and SA, quickly moved into contention.
GCCSI held annual members meeting in AD this year, for good reason, clear that the potential for CCS, CCUS in middle east andf the GCC is significant
ROW 2 project in op, 7 dev, one under construct world biggest Saline form project, gorgon in Australia
Reason to be +ve,
Nature of storage – all EOR, isnt it?
Up to now,
Looking fwd, project under construction, different story emerging, gorgon, quest, Illinios industrial all storage
advance planning – more of a bias toward storage than Eor, look beyond 2015
Starting to see more dedicated geological storage, possible for learnings of EOR earlier
How did we get here>?
Seeing watershed year
Decision now taken at start of decade by far sighted investors and companies, based on +ve policy encourage pursuit of CCS
There is a portfolio up to 2020, a significant line up 14, over next 12-24 month FID
Depend on supporting env, and Bus case, to make FID, policy key to realise
From there need to massively increase adoption if going to meet objectives of IPCC,
To take advantage of the abatement opportunity CCS offers, need to take advantage of to enable emission reductions, while accommodating growth in consumption , this will happen for good reasons as we aim to bring many people out of energy poverty
Decisions NOW policy must not lose sigh of importance of actiosn today if we are going to realise potentioal
Look around the regions we look in
Know….
ALL THREE
Tribute to US DOE programme,
South America Max and Braz advancing, Americas looking like complete package
Asia pacific… seen the emergence of China
Gorgon at least 3,5 MT
Some little way to go
Interesting and fast emerging, easrly stage in deployment
2 under construction
Tribute to UAE, industrial processes been a problem, now we have first.
UAE #1
Confident very important , look fwd to work in region
Europe, in general terms, disappointing
BUT
Tribute to series of high profile who never let ambition slip, eg CD, DG-ENER
Have to acknowledge UK projects progressing, sensible and intelligent policy
UK adopted policy parity, institute argued for some time
Very important as offshore
Reinforrce ROAD critical – few tens of millions spare
Look at Individual technologies on chain – capture focus on cost
Storage – focus on timing!
Needs to be a policy on focuss on what we can do to encourage exploration purely for CCS storage
Looking at P&R
Cant deny CCS costs more than unabated energy, however….
Largely expired….. UK exception
In next wave
UNFCCC needs to recognised CCS
Interesting to look at investment over 10 years (BNEW visa IEA)
What you can do with supportive policy
2tn vs 20 bn
Depsite inv remember RES not changed share
Come to points and recommendation
Very advanced eg ROAD
No RES in industry
Call to action for all of us
50% - huge achievement
To paris and UNFCC great platform