This webinar discussed two studies on achieving a low-carbon economy in the United States: the Risky Business Project and the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy Report. Four pathways were examined that could reduce US carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 through different technology mixes, including high renewables, high nuclear, high carbon capture and storage, and mixed resources. All pathways required upfront investments but achieved both emissions reductions and fuel savings over time. Implementation challenges included the pace of power plant construction, expanding the electric grid and building electric vehicle infrastructure. The webinar compared the pathways and findings to the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy Report.

1. Can the United States Achieve a Low Carbon Economy?
World Resources Institute Webinar
Wednesday 17th May 2017

2.  Senior Fellow, Global Climate Program, World Resources Institute
Dr Karl Hausker
 Leads analysis and modeling of domestic
climate mitigation scenarios, and contributes to
work on the New Climate Economy, the social
cost of carbon, and energy access
 Previously, Karl has led climate policy analysis
and modeling projects for USAID, USEPA,
RGGI, the Western Climate Initiative, and the
California ARB
 Karl holds an M.P.P and Ph.D. in Public Policy
from University of California, Berkeley, and
received his BA degree in Economics from
Cornell University

3. QUESTIONS
 We will collect questions during
the presentation.
 Your Webinar Host will pose
your questions to Karl after the
presentation.
 Please submit your questions
directly into the GoToWebinar
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The webinar will start shortly.

4. DEEP DECARBONIZATION:
INSIGHTS FROM RISKY BUSINESS AND
THE U.S. MID-CENTURY STRATEGY REPORT
KARL HAUSKER, SENIOR FELLOW MAY 2015

5. The bottom line on climate change 5
OUTLINE
• The Risky Business Project
• From Risk to Return:
• Three Pillars
• Four Pathways
• Report Findings
• Implementation Challenges
• Comparison to U.S. Mid Century Strategy
• Q&A

6. 6
TWO STUDIES WITH A LONG SHELF LIFE
www.riskybusiness.org UNFCCC and Obama WH Archives

7. ANALYTIC APPROACH
The bottom line on climate change 7
• Applies the PATHWAYS model, a detailed stock accounting,
technology adoption, and cost model for the US energy system
developed by Energy & Environmental Economics (E3)
• Analyzes technology and fuel scenarios, first-order cost impacts.
• Not a macroeconomic model
• Uses 2015 Reference Case from EIA Annual Energy Outlook
• Meet demand for end-use services
• Capital stock turnover at end of normal lifetime
• Explores four pathways that each reduce CO2 emissions 80% by
2050 with different technology mixes
• National projections plus results for 9 US Census regions,
reflecting resource differences
• Beyond modeling:
• In-depth discussions of implementation issues
• Case studies on early steps to clean energy transition

8. The bottom line on climate change
8
Three Pillars: Strategies and Metrics

9. PRIMARY ENERGY USE
IN 2015 AND 2050
The bottom line on climate change 9
2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050
PrimaryEnergyUse(quads)
Fossil Energy Non-Fossil Energy Hydrogen/SynGas

10. The bottom line on climate change
10
• This report examines four different pathways to
accomplish this transition, each with different mixes of
technologies, chiefly in electricity and transportation:
• Mixed Resources Pathway
• High Renewables Pathway
• High Nuclear Pathway
• High CCS Pathway
• Under all of the pathways, the transition requires
up-front capital investments that:
• Achieve both carbon reductions and fuel savings
that grow steadily over time
• Are consistent with normal capital stock turnover
Four Pathways

11. 11
The bottom line on climate change
SEIZE EVERY OPPORTUNITY
Normal Capital Stock Turnover: 2015-2050
Hot Water Heater
Space Heater
Light Duty Vehicle
Heavy Duty Vehicle
Industrial Boiler
Natural Gas CC Plant
Residential Building
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

12. POWER GENERATION IN 2050
The bottom line on climate change 12
Reference Mixed High High High
Renewables Nuclear CCS
ElectricityGeneration(billionkwh)

13. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE
IN 2050
The bottom line on climate change 13
Reference Mixed High High High
Renewables Nuclear CCS
TransportFinalEnergy(quads)

14. COST ASSUMPTIONS ON CCS
(CONSISTENT WITH AEO 2015 PROJECTIONS)
• Coal steam plant with CCS coming online in 2020:
– levelized capital cost of ~$6000 per kilowatt (2014$)
– As the technology matured, cost would decrease ~6% per
decade from 2020-2050, reaching about $5000 per
kilowatt in 2050.
• Coal IGCC plant coming online in 2020:
– similar trajectory from ~$7300 per kilowatt in 2020 to
roughly $6000 in 2050.
• Gas combined cycle plant with CCS in 2020
– levelized capital cost of ~$2000 per kilowatt in 2020.
– Cost would decrease ~7% per decade from 2020-2050,
reaching about $1600 per kilowatt in 2050. These
projections are consistent with the cost projections in AEO
2015.

15. The bottom line on climate change
15
Average annual
change in
investments and
fuel expenditures
by decade.
• Annual change
in investments
from 2020-2050
would average
about $320B
per year
• Roughly equal
to average
annual US IT
spending over
the past
decade.
INVESTING IN CLEAN ENERGY

16. The bottom line on climate change 16
As-SpentCostsandSavings
BillionsofDollars(2015$)
“Cash Drawer” PerspectiveAs-SpentCostsandSavings
BillionsofDollars(2015$)

17. The bottom line on climate change 17
AnnualizedCostsandSavings
BillionsofDollars(2015$)
Capital cost
annualized
over lifetime
of asset

18. EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
FROM A SIMILAR 2015 STUDY
Gains
• 460,000 additional
construction jobs
could be created by
2030, with the number
rising
to 800,000 by 2050
Losses
• Coal mining and oil-
and gas-related jobs
could decline by more
than 130,000 by 2030
and 270,000 by 2050
The bottom line on climate change 18
Overall ~1 million additional jobs by 2050
Source: ICF Incorporated, Economic Analysis of U.S Decarbonization
Pathways: Summary of Findings, November 15, 2015.

19. The bottom line on climate change
19
• The pace of needed power plant construction would be
challenging, but doable.
 2-4 X historical rates
• The power grid’s transmission and distribution system
would require significant expansion and upgrades.
 Transmission line siting could be a major obstacle
• The shift to electric vehicles would require major
physical infrastructure build-out and changes.
 Focus on Fast Chargers, Workplace, Home, or
Battery Swapping?
• Utility business models must change to integrate more
variable and distributed resources.
 Smart grids and smart devices needed to match
supply & demand
Implementation Challenges

20. 20
NATIONAL MID-CENTURY STRATEGIES

21. The bottom line on climate change 21
U.S. MID CENTURY STRATEGY REPORT

22. ELECTRICITY GENERATION
The bottom line on climate change 22

23. Source: United States Mid Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization, November 2016
ELECTRICITY CAPACITY ADDITIONS

24. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE

25. Karl Hausker
Global Climate Program
khausker@wri.org
THANK YOU

26. QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION
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English directly into the
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27. Please submit any feedback to: webinar@globalccsinstitute.com