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Gene Wunderlich
250

                    Southwest California Homes
                                Single Family Homes
200




150




100




 50




  0
      3/10   6/10        9/10   12/10      3/11        6/11    9/11     12/11        3/12        6/12     9/12   12/12

                    Temecula    Murrieta     Lake Elsinore    Menifee     Wildomar          Canyon Lake
Southwest California Homes
                       Annual Unit Sales
                   Single Family Residential
10000
                                                   9
 9000                                              6
                       8                    8      6      8             8
 8000
               7       4                    4      5      2      7      0
               6       7                    5             6      5
 7000
                              6                                         0
               9       5                    0             4      9
 6000                         6                                         4
               2              5                                  6
 5000
                              4
 4000
                                     4
                                     0
 3000
                                     1
 2000                                7
 1000


    0
        2004    2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012
$400,000




$350,000




$300,000




$250,000




$200,000




$150,000


           Southwest California Homes
                       Single Family Homes
$100,000



                           Median Price
 $50,000




     $0
            3/10       6/10        9/10   12/10           3/11      6/11   9/11       12/11        3/12     6/12       9/12      12/12

            Temecula          Murrieta    Lake Elsinore          Menifee   Wildomar           Canyon Lake    Linear (Murrieta)
$500,000
                                        $                                Southwest California Homes
$450,000                                4          $                          Annual Median
                             $          9          4          -53%
$400,000                     4          9          5
                  $
                             6          ,          2
$350,000          4
                  0
                             1          1          ,                                    9%
$300,000
                             ,                                $
                  0                     4          8                                                      $
                             4                                2          $          $          $
$250,000
                  ,                     7          8                                                      2
                             3                                8          2          2          2
                  6                                8                                                      5
$200,000
                             7                                8          3          4          4
                  9                                           ,                                           6
                                                                         4          7          1
$150,000
                  8                                           8                                           ,
                                                                         ,          ,          ,
                                                              2                                           5
$100,000
                                                                         9          6          4
                                                              2                                           3
                                                                         7          4          3
 $50,000
                                                                                                          9
                                                                         4          8          8
     $0
           2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012
Quarterly Trend
           $       $                       $   $      $                     $      $                                 $   $   $
                                                                                       $
$400,000   2   $   2                       3   2      3                     3      2                                 3   2   3
                                                                                       2
           9   2   8                       1   8      0                     2      9                                 5   9   1
                                                                                       7    $                                     $
           2   6   6    $                  5   3      9                     8      0                                 3   5   3
           ,                               ,              $                 ,          0    2                        ,            2
$350,000       1   ,    2                      ,      ,                            ,                                     ,   ,            $
           4                               5              2                 0          ,    3                        3            3
               ,   3    2                      2      3                            7             $   $                   0   5        $   2
           3                               9              1        $        7          9    6                        3            3
               7   4    7   $                  8      7       $                    6                 1                   3   6        1
           0                      $        2              8        1        4          6    ,    1                   8                    0
$300,000       1                                              1                                                                   ,
                   0    ,   1     1            1      9                            9             8   9                   3   5        9   6
                                                          ,        8                   1    3                                     2
               2        1   7                                 7                                      0                                1
                                  7                       4        3                        1    9                                        ,
                                                              8                                                                   9
                        9   4     1                                                              ,   ,                                ,   0
                                                          2        ,                        3                                     2
$250,000                0   ,                                 ,                                      4                                6
                                  ,                       0        1                             1                                        7
                            5                                 3                                      0                                5
                                  1                                9                             0                                        7
                            3                                 8                                      0                                8
                                  1                                6                             1
$200,000                                                      2
                            6     2


$150,000




$100,000




 $50,000




     $0

                   Q1                              Q2                                  Q3                                    Q4
                                Temecula   Murrieta       Canyon Lake   Wildomar       Menifee       Lake Elsinore
300

                                                     December Demand
                                                                                                                                 2
                                           2                                                                                     .
250
                                           6                                                                                     3
                               2       2   7                                                                                         2       2
                               3       0
                                                                                                                                     .       .       1
                                       5                 1
                               6                                                                                                     0     1 0       .
200                                2                     8 1                                                                               .         9
                                   1                                                                                                     1
          1                                              0 6                                                                               8
                                   0                                                                                                     .
          9                                                8                                                                             6
          3                                                        1
      1
150   6         1                                                  3
      7       1 1
                                                                   1
              0 9
              7                                                                           9
                                                                                                   9
                                                               8                 8        7
100                                                                                                0
                                                               6                 4
                                                                                                       6
                                                                                      6
                    6                               5                                                  8
                                                                                      4        5
                    0                               8                                          6
                                                                       3
                                               3
 50                        2                                           8 3
                                               4
                           7                                             0
                                                                                                            0 1 1 0 1 0
                                                                                                            . . . . . .
                                                                                                            9 1 2 9 6 9
  0
      On Market (Supply)            Pending               Closed (Demand)            Days on Market              Months Supply   Absorption rate *
                                   Murrieta        Temecula    Lake Elsininore       Menifee       Canyon Lake       Wildomar
                               * Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month
Available Inventory
2500




2000               2
           1       2
           9       4
1500

           9       0       1
           4               4       1
                           1
1000
                                   1       9
                           9                       8       8
                                   8       7                       7       7                 7
                                                   6                                7                 6
                                   8                       4       9
 500                                       4                               7        2        8
                                                   2       1                                          7
                                                                   5       5                 2
                                                                                    5                 3
   0
       1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10       11       12
Available Inventory
                                               3 year history
2500




2000




1500




1000




 500




   0
       1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9 10 11 12 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12

                           2010                                    2011                                       2012
December Market Activity
              By Sales Type
                Standard Sale          Bank Owned                 Short Sale
                Act % of     % of Act % of    % of Act % of    % of
                ive MKT Sold MKT ive MKT Sold MKT ive MKT Sold MKT
Temecula        156   81%   93   55%   17    9%   14    8%   17     9%   60   36%
Murrieta        125   76%   89   49%   9     5%   15    8%   27    16%   74   41%
Wildomar         17   63%   15   50%   6    22%   1     3%   3     11%   15   50%
Lake Elsinore    72   67%   35   41%   18   17%   7     8%   16    15%   41   48%
Menifee          76   64%   60   46%   20   17%   21   16%   17    14%   46   35%
Canyon Lake      48   80%   14   37%   5     8%   4    11%   6     10%   19   50%
Regional
Average         494 72% 306 49% 75 8% 62 9% 86 13% 255 43%
December Inventory by Price Point
                December Unit Sales by Price Point
                                 (in 1,000's)
                          101-   201-           301-   401-   501-1
                   <100   200    300            400    500     mil    1 mil +
Temecula             1      2     36             42     26     48       52
           Sales     1     17     66             71     16     12        3
Murrieta             3     25     38             58      8     31       40
           Sales     5     38     98             56      4      8        1
Lake Elsinore        7     25     45             25      6      2        1
           Sales     7     35     45              9      0      0        0
Menifee             16     49     54             18      1      4        1
           Sales    13     55     66              8      1      0        0
Wildomar             7      7     13              7      1      2        0
           Sales     5     15     16              7      0      0        0
Canyon Lake          1      4     18             14     11     17        3
           Sales     1      8     12             13      6      2        0
Total
Inventory           35    112    204            164     53     104      97
Total Sales         32    168    303            164     27     22       4
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2012 Recap, 1/15 mls meeting

  • 2. 250 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes 200 150 100 50 0 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake
  • 3. Southwest California Homes Annual Unit Sales Single Family Residential 10000 9 9000 6 8 8 6 8 8 8000 7 4 4 5 2 7 0 6 7 5 6 5 7000 6 0 9 5 0 4 9 6000 6 4 2 5 6 5000 4 4000 4 0 3000 1 2000 7 1000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 4. $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes $100,000 Median Price $50,000 $0 3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake Linear (Murrieta)
  • 5. $500,000 $ Southwest California Homes $450,000 4 $ Annual Median $ 9 4 -53% $400,000 4 9 5 $ 6 , 2 $350,000 4 0 1 1 , 9% $300,000 , $ 0 4 8 $ 4 2 $ $ $ $250,000 , 7 8 2 3 8 2 2 2 6 8 5 $200,000 7 8 3 4 4 9 , 6 4 7 1 $150,000 8 8 , , , , 2 5 $100,000 9 6 4 2 3 7 4 3 $50,000 9 4 8 8 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 6. Quarterly Trend $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $400,000 2 $ 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 9 2 8 1 8 0 2 9 5 9 1 7 $ $ 2 6 6 $ 5 3 9 8 0 3 5 3 , , $ , 0 2 , 2 $350,000 1 , 2 , , , , , $ 4 5 2 0 , 3 3 3 , 3 2 2 3 7 $ $ 0 5 $ 2 3 9 1 $ 7 9 6 3 3 7 4 7 $ 8 7 $ 6 1 3 6 1 0 $ 2 8 1 4 6 , 1 8 0 $300,000 1 1 , 0 , 1 1 1 9 9 8 9 3 5 9 6 , 8 1 3 2 2 1 7 7 0 1 7 4 3 1 9 , 8 9 9 4 1 , , , 0 2 , 3 2 $250,000 0 , , 4 6 , 0 1 1 7 5 3 0 5 1 9 0 7 3 8 0 8 1 6 1 $200,000 2 6 2 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Temecula Murrieta Canyon Lake Wildomar Menifee Lake Elsinore
  • 7. 300 December Demand 2 2 . 250 6 3 2 2 7 2 2 3 0 . . 1 5 1 6 0 1 0 . 200 2 8 1 . 9 1 1 1 0 6 8 0 . 9 8 6 3 1 1 150 6 1 3 7 1 1 1 0 9 7 9 9 8 8 7 100 0 6 4 6 6 6 5 8 4 5 0 8 6 3 3 50 2 8 3 4 7 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 . . . . . . 9 1 2 9 6 9 0 On Market (Supply) Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate * Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar * Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month
  • 8. Available Inventory 2500 2000 2 1 2 9 4 1500 9 0 1 4 4 1 1 1000 1 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 4 9 500 4 7 2 8 2 1 7 5 5 2 5 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  • 9. Available Inventory 3 year history 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2010 2011 2012
  • 10. December Market Activity By Sales Type Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale Act % of % of Act % of % of Act % of % of ive MKT Sold MKT ive MKT Sold MKT ive MKT Sold MKT Temecula 156 81% 93 55% 17 9% 14 8% 17 9% 60 36% Murrieta 125 76% 89 49% 9 5% 15 8% 27 16% 74 41% Wildomar 17 63% 15 50% 6 22% 1 3% 3 11% 15 50% Lake Elsinore 72 67% 35 41% 18 17% 7 8% 16 15% 41 48% Menifee 76 64% 60 46% 20 17% 21 16% 17 14% 46 35% Canyon Lake 48 80% 14 37% 5 8% 4 11% 6 10% 19 50% Regional Average 494 72% 306 49% 75 8% 62 9% 86 13% 255 43%
  • 11. December Inventory by Price Point December Unit Sales by Price Point (in 1,000's) 101- 201- 301- 401- 501-1 <100 200 300 400 500 mil 1 mil + Temecula 1 2 36 42 26 48 52 Sales 1 17 66 71 16 12 3 Murrieta 3 25 38 58 8 31 40 Sales 5 38 98 56 4 8 1 Lake Elsinore 7 25 45 25 6 2 1 Sales 7 35 45 9 0 0 0 Menifee 16 49 54 18 1 4 1 Sales 13 55 66 8 1 0 0 Wildomar 7 7 13 7 1 2 0 Sales 5 15 16 7 0 0 0 Canyon Lake 1 4 18 14 11 17 3 Sales 1 8 12 13 6 2 0 Total Inventory 35 112 204 164 53 104 97 Total Sales 32 168 303 164 27 22 4
  • 12. To peruse your own copy of this at leisure, Go to: http://www.slideshare.net/genewunderlich Or facebook.com/srcargad