Interest rates, refugee numbers, Greece, household wealth, catch ratio, CDS, risk premiums, models

1. Genauer‘s sampler 6 of various graphs for various
discussions (data as of 19 Aug 2016)
page
Long term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 2
Detail Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 3
Short term history of relevant Global interest rates of (G-7, Swiss ) 4
Development of the European Migration avalanche (UN data) 5
Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6
8/19/2016 genauer 1
Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6
Success ratio of Turkish border controls 7
European Migration avalanche , timeline of with events 8
Cross Balkan Migration developments, detailed, since February 2016 9
AfD vote in Germany 11
European Interest Rate development prior July 2012 12
CDS logs prior July 2012 13
US household wealth / disposable income 14

2. 8/19/2016 genauer 2

3. 8/19/2016 genauer 3
Germany hitting negative territory, even for 10 year Bunds, Portugal now off the plantantion by a more
than 1% excess risk premium, Greece could be at 3%, if following the MoU 2 in Summer 2014

4. 8/19/2016 genauer 4

5. 8/19/2016 genauer 5

6. 8/19/2016 genauer 6

7. 8/19/2016 genauer 7

8. date event link
1/26/2015Tsipras http://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2015/01/26
3/5/2015Kammenos
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11459675/Greeces-defence-
minister-threatens-to-send-migrants-including-jihadists-to-Western-Europe.html
6/30/2015Hungarian/Serb Fence start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier
8/24/2015German internal memo
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11821822/Germany-drops-
EU-rules-to-allow-in-Syrian-refugees.html
8/26/2015Russian deployment to Syria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
8/19/2016 genauer 8
9/11/2015Merkel selfies with migrants https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/merkel-bamf-berlin-101.html
9/14/2015
Hungarian/ Serb fence
complete
9/18/2015
Hungarian/ Croat fence
started
10/19/2015Merkel visits Erdogan
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlingskrise/merkel-trifft-erdogan-
43056366.bild.html
10/28/2015Austrian Fence started https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_border_barrier
11/11/2015Slovenian Fence started
11/29/2015Macedonian fence start https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonian_border_barrier
1/22/2016Austrian Fence finished
2/22/2016Macedonia border closure
3/6/2016Macedonian 320 km fence
3/9/2016Slovenian border closed

9. 8/19/2016 genauer 9

10. 8/19/2016 genauer 10

11. AfD vote in Germany
8/19/2016 genauer 11

12. 8/19/2016 genauer 12

13. 8/19/2016 genauer 13

14. US household wealth / disposable income
8/19/2016 genauer 14