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Transforming Agri-food System:  Role of Organized Retail in India Ashok Gulati Director in Asia International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Keynote Address at first Annual Conference of the Indian Society of Agri Business Management Bangalore 25 th  September, 2008
Key Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changing Complexion of the Indian Food Basket Source: NSS0 2006 30.2 27.6 25.4 19.3 Other food items 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 42.5 59.1 55.0 65.6 Expenditure  on food  as a percent of total expenditure 5.3 3.6 3.4 2.1 Fruits & nuts  10.5 8.4 11.1 7.2 Vegetables  6.4 6.1 6.0 4.6 Egg, fish & meat  18.6 15.7 15.4 11.5 Milk & products  29.0 38.6 38.7 55.3 Cereals and pulses 2004-05 1983 2004-05 1983 Urban Rural Expenditure as percent of total food Items
Changing Production Basket~ All India Source: Calculations based on 1999-2000 price series obtained from National Accounts Statistics (back series 1950/51-1999/2000), 2007 & National Accounts Statistics 2008,  Central Statistical Organization, Government of India
Transforming Agri-food System RBHs Source: Gulati & Gupta, 2008 emerging linkages emerging   linkages
Organized Retail in India ~unfolding revolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Huge scope for expansion *Source; ICRIER Retail Report, 2008
Retail Revolution ~ Growth of Organized Food & Grocery Retail Note: Food  sales include food, beverages, tobacco products, drugstore items and small everyday non-foods household goods. Source: Planet Retail website, Accessed on 20 th  May, 2008 Organized Food & Grocery Retail Sales of selected 10 Retailers (2002/07)
Market share (%) of Top 5 Grocers, 2005   ~very low level of concentration in India Source: Global Retail Concentration, Planet Retail Report, August 2008   90.1 89.5 35 34.5 31.5 24.7 23.9 20.9 20.7 18.2 17.9 14 13.2 4.1 1.3 New Zealand Australia Thailand Philippines Hong Kong Malaysia Korea, South Singapore Taiwan Japan Turkey Vietnam Indonesia China India
Scaling up of Organized Food Processing Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scaling up of Organized Logistics Suppliers ~favorable impact on the dd for logistics services in the organized food retail sector   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agricultural Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fragmenting Farm Sector ~swelling bottom Source: NSSO, 2006
“ fortune at the bottom of the pyramid” C.K Prahlad (2004) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can Retail lift the Tail?   ~clusterization at the backend Market Information (incl. food safety) Retailers &  Agro  processors Input delivery & Extension services Credit & Insurance Farmers’  clusters Source: Gulati & Ganguly, 2008
Missing or Inadequate Rural/Agri Services ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Open Source Intermediation ~the dynamics of RBHs Output Farmers Input RBHs IPR* Mandi Informal Markets Ext. Services Money lender Banks  & Insurance Financial Fuel Inputs FMCGs Produce Extension FMCG Inputs *IPR: Input Suppliers, Processors and Retailers Source: Gulati & Gupta, 2008
Emerging Players in RBHs ~a type of open source intermediaries   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Private Initiatives Public Initiatives ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Gulati & Gupta, 2008
Challenge of   “Inclusiveness with  Competitiveness”   ~  who benefits & how? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Not just Big Box Malls ~ opportunities for  “mainstream participation” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Branded pushcarts piloted by ITC Source: ITC
ACME-branding of pushcarts ,[object Object],[object Object],A Pilot project with 70 thermally enabled carts has been implemented in Gurgaon, NCR . Source: ACME
How have farmers benefited? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next Steps ~ “one size fit all” formula does not work Solving the policy puzzle  (“rubic cube”)  to ensure  C- Competitiveness I- Inclusiveness S- Scalability S- Sustainability ,[object Object],[object Object]
What are the possible levers of change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Ifpri Ashok Gulati

  • 1. Transforming Agri-food System: Role of Organized Retail in India Ashok Gulati Director in Asia International Food Policy Research Institute, New Delhi Keynote Address at first Annual Conference of the Indian Society of Agri Business Management Bangalore 25 th September, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3. Changing Complexion of the Indian Food Basket Source: NSS0 2006 30.2 27.6 25.4 19.3 Other food items 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 42.5 59.1 55.0 65.6 Expenditure on food as a percent of total expenditure 5.3 3.6 3.4 2.1 Fruits & nuts 10.5 8.4 11.1 7.2 Vegetables 6.4 6.1 6.0 4.6 Egg, fish & meat 18.6 15.7 15.4 11.5 Milk & products 29.0 38.6 38.7 55.3 Cereals and pulses 2004-05 1983 2004-05 1983 Urban Rural Expenditure as percent of total food Items
  • 4. Changing Production Basket~ All India Source: Calculations based on 1999-2000 price series obtained from National Accounts Statistics (back series 1950/51-1999/2000), 2007 & National Accounts Statistics 2008, Central Statistical Organization, Government of India
  • 5. Transforming Agri-food System RBHs Source: Gulati & Gupta, 2008 emerging linkages emerging linkages
  • 6.
  • 7. Retail Revolution ~ Growth of Organized Food & Grocery Retail Note: Food sales include food, beverages, tobacco products, drugstore items and small everyday non-foods household goods. Source: Planet Retail website, Accessed on 20 th May, 2008 Organized Food & Grocery Retail Sales of selected 10 Retailers (2002/07)
  • 8. Market share (%) of Top 5 Grocers, 2005 ~very low level of concentration in India Source: Global Retail Concentration, Planet Retail Report, August 2008 90.1 89.5 35 34.5 31.5 24.7 23.9 20.9 20.7 18.2 17.9 14 13.2 4.1 1.3 New Zealand Australia Thailand Philippines Hong Kong Malaysia Korea, South Singapore Taiwan Japan Turkey Vietnam Indonesia China India
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Fragmenting Farm Sector ~swelling bottom Source: NSSO, 2006
  • 13.
  • 14. Can Retail lift the Tail? ~clusterization at the backend Market Information (incl. food safety) Retailers & Agro processors Input delivery & Extension services Credit & Insurance Farmers’ clusters Source: Gulati & Ganguly, 2008
  • 15.
  • 16. Open Source Intermediation ~the dynamics of RBHs Output Farmers Input RBHs IPR* Mandi Informal Markets Ext. Services Money lender Banks & Insurance Financial Fuel Inputs FMCGs Produce Extension FMCG Inputs *IPR: Input Suppliers, Processors and Retailers Source: Gulati & Gupta, 2008
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Branded pushcarts piloted by ITC Source: ITC
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.