1. Institute of Social Studies and Analysis
Georgian Development Research Institute
Analytical Report
Study of the political preferences of the voters and attitudes
towards the processes ongoing in the country
November, 2011

2. Executive Summary
Relation to different institutions
Among the acting institutions in Georgia, the most positive evaluation “traditionally” was
received by the Georgian Orthodox Church, whereas the most negative (traditionally as
well) was received by the Georgian Court System. High evaluation was retained by the
Ministry of Interior, whereas the Ministry of Healthcare appeared among the negatively
assessed three structures, together with the Court System and the Prosecutor’s Office. This
can be explained by the failure of the prolonged reform of the healthcare system (which
was admitted by the government itself) and the limited access to the healthcare services,
which is currently considered as one of the major problems by the population.
Respondents very negatively evaluated the possibility of increasing quantity of the MP’s up
to 190. Also, they were very reluctant towards the possibility of moving the parliament to
Kutaisi.
Evaluation of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s coming into Georgian politics
Majority of the respondents welcomes Bidzina Ivanishvili’s coming into politics (56.3%
support his coming into politics). However, his first steps have been evaluated less
positively (46.2% support his first steps). Such a difference (10%) between these two
results indicates that the euphoria raised in the country by Ivanishvili’s coming into politics
has decreased to a certain extant. However, it should be noted, that this 10% of the
respondents did not move into the group of those frustrated by Ivanishvili’s first steps into
politics (negatively evaluating respondents), but into the group of the neutrally oriented
ones (assessment: “neither positive, nor negative”). This means that Ivanishvili’s moves
after his appearance in real politics mainly maintain the positive effect created by his
coming into politics.
Ivanishvili’s political partners
The respondents observed with cautious optimism Bidzina Ivanishvili’s collaboration with
Free Democrats and Republicans. No clear expectations exist that this collaboration will be
positive and successful; neither is there any domineering pessimistic mood. All of these
indicate that above mentioned parties should start political activities in a joint format and
take serious decisions to make the result of this cooperation viable for the voters.
Party Ratings
Two political centers have been outlined in the Georgian political spectrum. These are:
National Movement (36%) and Ivanishvili’s political force (32%). Among the others, more
or less influential seems to be the Christian-Democratic Movement with 4.3% supporters.

3. Ivanishvili’s political force rating has three sources:
1. These are opposition oriented respondents, who, until Ivanishvili’s appearance into
politics, were not identifying their position with any opposition political force. The reason
was lack of trust towards any opposition party. Previously, when asked “which political
party would you support in the parliamentary elections?” they would respond saying:
“difficult to answer” or “neither one”. Ivanishvili’s political force managed the return of
frustrated opposition electorate into institutionalized political domain. The approximate
number of defrustrated electorate is around 13%.
2. Ivanishvili has successfully managed to bring on his side the supporters of other
opposition political parties. Ivanishvili’s coming into politics practically damaged all the
opposition parties’ ratings.
3. Ivanishvili’s political force appeared to be attractive for yet a very little portion of the
ruling party. Although, the National Movement Party in reality preserves the number of
supporters (which during the last months fluctuated around 40%), Ivanishvili’s coming
into politics created first crack in the electorate of the ruling party. Ivanishvili has become
kind of an alternative for the ruling party not only for bringing the oppositional electorate
into a focus but for recruiting some of the ruling National Movement supporters as well. As
the results of the polls show, at this stage, Ivanishvili has snatched from the competing
political parties (including National Movement) guaranteed 18%. Thus, Ivanishvili’s
political power appears to develop a kind of synergy: it is becoming attractive for the
voters with different political taste.
It appeared that such social-demographic features as sex, age and achieved level of
education have no influence while supporting domineering political parties. On the other
hand, the polling result showed that political ratings correlate with employment sector and
nationality. The National Movement supporters’ number increased (and accordingly,
Ivanishvili’s political force supporters’ number decreases) within the groups of those who
work in the public sector and among ethnically non-Georgian population (Kvemo Kartli
and Samtskhe-Javakheti regions in particular). Ivanishvili’s possible electorate increases
within the group of self-employed and those who work in the private sectors.
Competing political forces’ (Ivanishvili’s and National Movement) ratings also differ
according the regions:
a. The governing party is superior in: Samegrelo, Samtkhe-Javakheti and Kvemo
Kartli regions; Ivanishvili’s political force is an outstanding leader in: Imereti,
Tbilisi and Mtskheta-Mtianeti.
b. The competition between these two forces is visible in the following regions: Ajara,
Kakheti, Shida Kartli, Guria and Racha-Lechkhumi.

4. Candidates for Georgian Prime-Minister’s, President’s and Parliament Chairperson Posts
For the voters, the main competitors for the Prime-Minister’s post are Ivanishvili and
Saakashvili. The most compatible candidate for Ivanishvili is Alasania (Leader of Free-
Democrats, in alliance with Ivanishvili) whereas for Saakashvili, it is Ugulava (the Mayor
of Tbilisi). Correspondingly, Ivanishvili takes most supporters from Alasania, which also
means that Alasania on this post is Ivanishvili’s supplementary “vote donor”; the same
happens with Saakashvili and Ugulava as candidates. An interesting fact is that Giorgi
Targamadze’s (Leader of Christian-Democrats) rating is “damaged” both by Saakashvili
and by Ivanishvili. Therefore, Targamadze is a “vote donor” (though on smaller scale) for
both candidates.
The outstanding leader for the presidential candidate is Ivanishvili. Saakashvili yet has no
equal replacement. Ugulava, who is on the second place by the rating, has only 12.7% (a
reason for this is also the fact that Saakashvili has not yet named his successor). Every
fourth respondent had difficulties in naming the desirable presidential candidate. This
group of people mainly consisted of Saakashvili’s supporters, who have not found worthy
replacement for this post. It is credible, that as soon as Saakashvili names his possible
successor out of the governing party, pro-government voters who refrained from
answering at this stage, will lean towards this candidate and Ivanishvili will have a much
stronger competitor for presidential post. Alasiania and at some points Targamadze also,
as presidential candidates loose supporters in favor of Ivanishvili and act as reasonable
“vote donors” for him.
The future Parliament Chairperson’s post is the most diversified one– respondents could
not name the distinguished leader for this post. (The highest rating has Bakradze 10.2%
who is the current Chairperson of the Parliament). Moreover, every fourth respondent
could not name desirable chairperson for the Parliament. It seems that this post is less
personified for the society. An interesting fact is that neither Saakashvili, nor Ivanishvili
are considered as desirable candidates for the post of Chairman of the Parliament, as it
seems this post is considered less influential in Georgian politics.
Expectations from the 2012 Parliamentary Elections
The respondents are excited to vote for the 2012 parliamentary elections. (78% said they
would definitely participate in the elections and another 11% said it’s more likely they
would vote). The readiness of the respondents is correlated with the belief of majority of
the people (60%) that the forthcoming elections will be held fairly and also with the fact
that the majority of respondents (more than 80%) have already made their preference in
favor of certain political parties.
Part of the opposing respondents (average 10%) think that majority of the people will vote
for current government in the forthcoming elections and believe that the National
Movement Party will win. Different factors serve to define such an approach: a) A part of
opposition supporters do not consider themselves as the representatives of majority among
voters. (And consider themselves swimming against the mainstream). (Here we can hear

5. the echo of National broadcasting companies’ propaganda about total support towards the
governing party and its achievements); b) Part of opposition oriented respondents know
that the party they are supporting cannot win the elections; c) Some are sure that the
government will manipulate the results.
Attitude towards certain politicians
Although in a diverse spectrum, the respondents seem to have negative attitude towards
most of Georgian politicians (22 out of 32). The list of rejected politicians starts with
Burjanadze (former Chairperson of the Parliament) and Noghaideli (former Saakashvili’s
Prime-Minister). Only 7 politicians received positive evaluation from the suggested list.
Ivanishvili was far ahead of others. Then the order is as follows: Saakashvili, Ugulava,
Bakradze, Merabishvili (Minister of Interior), Targamadze, Alasania.
Respondents are very cautious towards allegations concerning different politicians or non-
politicians in Russian espionage. They do not believe even the guilt of those who have been
arrested according to these accusations (military analyst Maiasia, photo-reporters).
Although, accusations in Russian espionage were more or less convincing in regards of
Burjanadze and Noghaideli, it seems that respondents’ attitude is supported by footage
aired by media about the Russian visits of these two politicians and stories about their
relations with Russian leadership.
Hot issues in the country and expectations towards solving them
The respondents consider unemployment the most acute problem in the country. There
was no significant reshuffling made in the traditional list of acute problems: respondents
still name – lost territories, poverty, market price hike, high prices for healthcare and so
on.
45% of the respondents consider the ruling party has resources to solve the problems,
whereas 46% don't. There is a lot of optimism in the public from Ivanishvili’s political
force: majority of voters (57%) hope that after coming into power, this force will solve the
hot issues in the country.
The frequency of media source usage and trust expressed towards them
Rustavi 2 and Imedi dominate the list of the most watched news sources. Maestro is their
main competitor (especially in Tbilisi). It is noteworthy that one third of the respondents do
not watch the news of the Georgian Public Broadcaster. Majority of the respondents also
do not use printed media as news source. Among them, Kviris Palitra was rated the best.
Getting news by radio has the lowest rate compared to other sources. The comparatively
better rating was received by Radio Imedi.
The frequency of media as a news source correlates with the people's trust in the
information given by them. However, there are exceptions: Maestro news has a fewer
number of viewers in Tbilisi than Imedi, although Maestro is trusted more than Imedi.