Fracking and climate change in Wales

And Shale Gas?
“Shale gas extraction brings a
significant risk of ground and surface water contamination
and until the evidence base is developed a precautionary
approach to development in the UK and Europe is the only
responsible action”.
“Without a meaningful cap on emissions of global GHGs,
the exploitation of shale gas is likely to
increase net carbon emissions”.
“Rapid carbon reductions require major investment in
zero-carbon technologies
and this could be delayed by exploitation of shale gas”.
Tyndall Centre, 2011

Groundwater
“Groundwater is vulnerable to contamination… 15% of
groundwater bodies in Wales are at risk of failing to meet
Water Framework Directive objectives because of
pollution from mining”
“We do not know as much about the condition of
groundwater in minor aquifers, many of which are in
Wales. Because of the limitations of the data,
we do not know yet what the major issues are in Wales”.
“Natural processes that help clean up groundwater, which
take days or weeks in rivers and lakes, can take
decades or centuries in groundwater”.
Under Ground, Under Threat: Environment Agency, 2006

The Shropshire Scheme
“Groundwater is pumped from the sandstone aquifer that
underlies much of north Shropshire into the River
Severn”.

“When all phases are complete an extra
225,000 m3 per day [enough for 1.4 million people]
will be taken from the river for public supply”
Under Ground, Under Threat: Environment Agency, 2006
“The Secretary of State may prohibit an Assembly Bill if it
might have a serious adverse impact on water resources in
England, water supply in England”
Devolution Guidance Note, Wales Office, 2012

Waste Water
“Each well… will generate between 1,300 and 23,000m3
of flowback waste fluid containing water, fracturing
chemicals and subsurface contaminants
(including toxic organic compounds, heavy metals and
naturally occurring radioactive materials”.

“Hazards include… spillage, storm water, failure of pit liner,
pipework failure, insufficient storage capacity, overfilling,
operator error”
“the likelihood of pollution incidents associated with
wider development of shale increase from the ‘possible’
end of the spectrum… through to the ‘probable’”
Tyndall Centre, 2011

“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line
with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius ,
which would have …
…devastating consequences for the planet.”

“We have 5 years to change the energy system…
…or have it changed”
Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist

Things are getting worse!

Global CO2 emission trends?

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% 2009-2010
~ 3.2 % 2010-2011
(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)

The State of Play

“To hold the increase in global temperature below
2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective
consistent with science”
Copenhagen Accord (2009)

Committee on Climate Change global budget has
56% chance of exceeding 2oC

UK Government adopts a pathway with a
63% chance of exceeding 2oC

The Challenge
UK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050
EU 60%-80% 2050
Bali 50% 2050

 CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous
climate change (2°C)
 It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon
budget)
 This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of
climate change from long term gradual reductions
to urgent and radical reductions

The Challenge

“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a
planned economic recession being compatible with
stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”
Anderson & Bows 2008

Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways
AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO 2e)

80

80 80

Low DL
60 Low DH
60 60
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
40 High DH
40 40

20
20 20

0
0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year Year
Year

Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366.
pp.3863-3882)

… and for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak)

60 2015 peak Medium DL

2015 peak High DL

2015 peak High DH

2020 peak High DL
13 of 18 scenarios 50

Emissions of CO2 alone (GtCO2)
2020 peak High DH

‘impossible’
40

Even then total 30

decarbonisation by 10-20% annual reductions –
~2035-45 necessary 20 even for a high probability of
exceeding 2°C
Globally: no emission 10
space for coal, gas,
or shale – even with
CCS! 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)
(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)


Peak 2025
Growth 3.5% p.a
Reduction 7% p.a.
(2x Stern!)


Peak ~2010

Reduction ∞% p.a.

The Problems
 All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate
change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give
negative emissions (geoengineering)
 Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous
climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power
 Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic
 Recent historical emissions massaged
 Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed
 Reduction rate universally dictated by economists
 Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden
 Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers
and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”

And 4oC?
 Emissions must peak no later than 2020
 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative
 At least it’s achievable…

The Downside
 For 4°C global mean surface temperature
 5°C - 6°C global land mean
 And an increase on the hottest days of:
 6°C - 8°C in China
 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
 10°C -12°C in New York
And in low latitudes 4 C gives up to
40% reduction in maize and rice
as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

The Situation
There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is
incompatible with an organised global community

is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’

is devastating to the majority of eco-systems

and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C
would be an interim temperature on the way to a much
higher equilibrium level).

Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs

Energy Emissions
 10% reduction year-on-year

Impossible?

Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of global
population

Including *probably* everyone in this room
Anyone who ever sets foot on a plane
Anyone in the UK earning over ~£30k

Wales leading the way

“Wales is a definite leader in
promoting sustainable
development”

20
?
Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar
18
(normalised to 2003)
16
14
12
England
10 Northern Ireland
8 Scotland
Wales
6
4
2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

?
Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)
(MW per 1000 people)

Image and slide credits

Slide 2 http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/coop_shale_gas_report_final_200111.pdf
Slide 3 http://a0768b4a8a31e106d8b0-
50dc802554eb38a24458b98ff72d550b.r19.cf3.rackcdn.com/geho0906bldb-e-e.pdf
Slides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/
Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16 Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
(with permission)
Slide 6 http://ecowatch.org/2012/fracking-water-pollution-risk/
Slide 10 http://www.grabandtiplittlehampton.co.uk/
Slide 24 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/25/jonathon-porritt-wales-is-
a-definite-leader-in-promoting-sustainable-development-91466-31898347/
Slide 29 http://www.climate-justice-now.org/leave-it-in-the-ground-cop17-illustration/

Fracking and climate change in Wales

Fracking and climate change in Wales

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