This document discusses future trends and global innovation, specifically focusing on the challenges of understanding uncertainty and exploring new opportunities through foresight programs. It provides an overview of the Future Agenda program, which is the world's leading open foresight program. The Future Agenda program brings together over 5,000 organizations annually through workshops and discussions to explore alternative futures, scenarios, and technology trends in order to help organizations better prepare for an uncertain future. Notable past topics that were explored through the Future Agenda program include the future of cities, philanthropy, patient data, and the value of data.

1. Future Trends and Global Innovation
Understanding Uncertainty
RCA | London | 20/21 Sept 2018 The world’s leading open foresight program

2. Inspiration – Looking for new innovation opportunities

3. Prediction – An ideal ambition that is (nearly) impossible

4. Roadmaps – Making things simple - we hope

5. Demand Forecasts – Playing to our comfort zone

6. Alternate Paths – The unexpected routes to the future

7. Obscurity – Difficult to see further than the immediate short term

8. Notable Quotes – Several popular views on the future
“The purpose of
looking at the future is
to disturb the present.”
Gaston Berger
“It's tough to make
predictions, especially
about the future.”
Yogi Berra
“The best way to
predict the future is to
create it.”
Peter Drucker
“The future is already
here, it's just not very
evenly distributed.”
William Gibson
“We are made wise not by
the recollection of our past,
but by the responsibility for
our future.”
George Bernard Shaw

9. Foresight vs. Insight – Differentiating between the predictable and the uncertain

10. Getting it Right – Thames Barrier need identified 1954, opened 1984 - used 10x plan

11. A VUCA World – Adopted from US Military and now business mainstream
Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous

12. Five Reasons to Do Foresight – Here we are focusing on the first two of these
Exploring and setting new strategic direction
Identifying new innovation areas
Providing thought leadership
Improving management dialogue
Building a more adaptive, responsive culture

13. Traditional Strategy Models - Monitor strategy, results and impact achieved.
Implement
strategy
Monitor
events
Modify
objectives
Evaluate
Impact
Formulate
strategy

14. Adding Foresight - Organisation more prepared and responsive to wider context.
Implement
strategy
Monitor
events
Monitor
the system
Gather
information
Spot
signals
Watch
trends
Make
sense
Rehearse
responses
Modify
objectives
Evaluate
Impact
Formulate
strategy

15. Futures Perspectives - Differentiate the possible, probable and plausible
‘As-Is’
View
Today
‘Could
Be’
View
2030+
Plausible
Probable
Possible

16. Scenarios – Alternative future narratives that explore what might be
A
B
C
‘As-Is’
View
Today
‘Could
Be’
View
2030+
A
B
C

17. Common Scenario Confusions – Same term but three different applications
Global Elites
New
Multilateralism
National Self
Interest Networked Scale
Global Collaboration
Fragmented and Local
Narrow
View
Broad
View
HIGH
BASE
LOW
A
B
C

18. Shell Scenarios – Developing two (or three) credible alternative views

19. Technology Futures - GameChanger engaging with the external ‘dream team’

20. Seeing Beyond the Now – Informed innovation opportunities with major impact

21. Common Aim - Connecting the inside-out and outside-in perspectives

22. Future Agenda - The world’s largest open foresight programme

23. 2010 Global Programme – 50 Workshops in 25 Countries

24. Lease Everything
Rising sustainability imperatives and increasing
cost of ownership shift the balance from
ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy

25. Halting Alzheimer's
Stopping mental degradation from Alzheimer’s makes
quality ageing more possible by improving
cognition and slowing the rate of decline

26. Solar Sunrise
Increasing governmental focus on energy security
and climate change drives the uptake of large-scale
solar as the leading renewable supply

27. Drone Wars
Intelligent UAVs choose their victims themselves
as the race for more focused military influence leads
to the proliferation of assassination tools

28. Mega City States
Increasing competition between cities over-rides national
priorities as mayors lead bold initiatives to place their
cities at the forefront of the global stage

29. Outcomes - Vodafone curated the ‘mobile’ filter view to highlight pivotal issues

30. Future Agenda 2015 - Doubled face-to-face interaction and raised online debate
Future Agenda 2010
1 HOST
16 TOPICS
25 COUNTRIES
50 WORKSHOPS
1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2015
50 HOSTS
24 TOPICS
35 COUNTRIES
120 WORKSHOPS
5000 ORGANISATIONS

31. Future Agenda 2015 Topics – Looking for crossover as well as regional differences
Cities
Education
Learning
Transport
Collaboration
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connectivity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade

32. 2015 Event Locations – Broader reach including more non-mega-city views

33. Focused Open Foresight – Ongoing deeper dives into key areas of interest
Future of Cities
(2015/16)
https://www.futureofcities.city
Future of Philanthropy
(2016/17)
https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org
Future of Patient Data
(2017/18)
https://www.futureofpatientdata.org
Future Value of Data
(2018)
Future of Autonomous
Vehicles
(2018/19)

34. Useage - Leading organisations identifying options and defining strategic pathways

35. Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
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