Drawing from the 2015 Future Agenda expert discussions around the world, this is a view of emerging trends that will impact the future of health and the pharmaceutical sector over the next decade. Used as both a keynote and stimulus for workshops, this material is shared under Creative Commons Non Commercial license. For more information on the Future Agenda programme please see www.futureagenda.org

1. The
Future
of
Health
and
Pharma
|
An
Emerging
View
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
Dr.
Tim
Jones
|
Programme
Director
|
3
May
2016

2. Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul0ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
beKer
informed
and
s0mulate
innova0on.

3. Looking
Forwards
Organisa0ons
increasingly
want
to
iden0fy
and
understand
both
the
an0cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beKer
prepared
for
the
future.

4. Future
Agenda
1.0
Top
Insights
for
2020
From
the
2010
program,
52
key
insights
on
the
next
decade
were
shared
widely
and
have
been
extensively
used
by
organisa0ons
around
the
world.
Health
was
a
key
issue
discussed
in
2010
and
has
grown
since.

5. Future
Agenda
2.0
in
Numbers
Future
Agenda
2.0
has
doubled
the
face-­‐to-­‐face
interac0on
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
120
discussions
on
25
topics
in
45
ci0es
engaged
with
informed
people
across
many
disciplines.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
25
TOPICS
35
COUNTRIES
120
WORKSHOPS
5000
ORGANISATIONS

6. THREE
KEY
SHIFTS
FOR
THE
NEXT
DECADE
Future
of
Pharma
Future
of
Health
Macro
Shi]s

7. SOME
KEY
MACRO
SHIFTS

8. Imbalanced
PopulaQon
Growth
A
growing
popula0on
adds
another
billion
people
but
it
is
also
rapidly
ageing:
A
child
born
next
year
will
live
6
months
longer
than
one
born
today.
While
migra0on
helps
to
rebalance
some
socie0es,
dependency
ra0os
challenge
all.

9. Everything
Connected
By
2025
over
1
trillion
sensors
are
connected
to
mul0ple
networks:
Everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
connec0on
has
one.
We
deliver
10,000x
more
data
100x
more
effec0vely
but
need
to
make
sense
of
the
informa0on
that
flows.

10. ShiTing
Power
and
Influence
The
centre
of
gravity
of
economic
power
con0nues
shi]ing
eastwards,
back
to
where
it
was
200
years
ago.
Recent
superpowers
seek
to
moderate
the
pace
of
change
but
the
reality
of
popula0on
and
resource
loca0ons
are
immoveable.

11. FUTURE
OF
HEALTH
TRENDS

12. Healthcare
for
All
Globally
healthcare
is
already
well
over
a
$6
trillion
industry,
but
nearly
70%
of
the
world
popula0on
does
not
receive
decent
healthcare
services.
We
need
a
revolu0on
in
order
to
service
the
en0re
market.

13. Urban
Obesity
Mass
urbanisa0on,
reduced
ac0vity
and
poor
diets
are
accelera0ng
the
rise
of
obesity.
As
half
popula0on
is
overweight,
levels
of
obesity
in
ci0es
are
growing
fast
and
the
associated
healthcare
burden
will
account
for
5%
of
global
GDP.

14. Air
Quality
As
more
experience
asthma
and
other
breathing
difficul0es,
urban
air
quality
becomes
a
visible
issue
and
a
major
catalyst
for
change
–
in
transport
policy,
in
energy
source
and
in
city
design.

15. Care
in
the
Community
The
desire
to
‘age-­‐in-­‐place’
meets
a
healthcare
reform
agenda
that
promotes
decentraliza0on.
A
new
care
model
is
customer-­‐centric,
caregiver-­‐focused
and
enhances
coordina0on
across
care
sekngs.

16. Data’s
Impact
on
Health
BeKer
use
of
data
and
technology
has
the
power
to
improve
health,
transforming
the
quality
and
reducing
the
cost
of
health
and
care
services.
It
can
give
pa0ents
more
control
over
their
health
and
empower
carers.

17. Human
Touch
As
service
provision
and
consump0on
becomes
ever
more
digital,
automated
and
algorithmic,
those
brands
that
can
offer
more
emo0onal
engagement
and
human-­‐to-­‐human
contact
become
increasingly
aKrac0ve.

18. Deeper
CollaboraQon
Partnerships
shi]
to
become
more
dynamic,
long-­‐term,
democra0sed,
mul0-­‐party
collabora0ons.
Compe0tor
alliances
and
wider
public
par0cipa0on
drive
regulators
to
create
new
frameworks
for
open,
empathe0c
collabora0on.

19. Digital
Autonomy
Increasing
access
to
more
personal
and
group
data
allows
individuals
to
take
informed
views
on
their
health.
As
informa0on
is
decoupled
from
the
professions,
the
public
become
more
specific
about
their
needs.

20. Data
PrioriQsaQon
An
increasingly
digital
healthcare
system
is
driven
by
access
to
credible
data
that
is
priori0sed
above
the
noise.
The
value
of
such
key
data
increases
as
its
ability
to
unlock
opportuni0es
and
improve
diagnosis
rises.

21. A
Data
Marketplace
Data
is
a
currency,
it
has
a
value
and
a
price,
and
therefore
requires
a
market
place.
Ecosystems
for
trading
health
data
is
emerging
and
anything
that
is
informa0on
is
represented
in
a
new
data
marketplace.

22. Connected
PredicQon
We
move
from
disparate,
under-­‐u0lized
data
sources
to
real-­‐0me
synthesis
of
mul0ple
data
plalorms
with
improved
accuracy
and
speed.
Predic0ve
analy0cs
and
gene0c
profiling
drive
hyper-­‐personaliza0on
and
early
ac0on.

23. Personalised
Healthcare
For
the
privileged
few
with
access,
personalised
healthcare
tailored
around
individual
medical
and
pyscho-­‐social
needs
provides
therapies
that
are
beKer
aligned
with
specific
rather
than
generic
profiles.

24. The
Rise
of
Machines
The
growth
in
the
intelligence
and
capabili0es
of
machines
presents
both
a
threat
and
an
opportunity.
Greater
automa0on
frees
up
0me,
but
also
has
the
poten0al
to
threaten
more
jobs
in
managerial
or
administra0ve
roles.

25. Quality
End
of
Life
As
more
seek
to
live
longer
but
die
fast,
making
the
most
of
the
end
of
our
lives
is
a
growing
concern.
Being
healthier
for
longer
and
needing
to
work
longer
combine
to
be
economically
and
socially
more
ac0ve
in
later
years.

26. ShiTing
Risk
and
Responsibility
Business
becomes
more
ac0vely
engaged
in
the
wellbeing
of
its
employees
and
society.
Greater
responsibility
for
health
is
incen0vised
by
tax
breaks
and
reimbursements
designed
to
share
risk,
with
lessons
taken
from
elsewhere.

27. IncenQves
in
Flux
Budgetary
pressures
con0nue
and
reimbursement
models
will
need
to
change.
There
is
greater
emphasis
on
paying
healthcare
providers
based
on
measurable
outcomes,
rather
than
simply
for
the
number
of
procedures
they
perform.

28. CollecQve
AcQon
to
Control
Chronic
Disease
To
stem
the
runaway
costs
of
trea0ng
chronic
diseases,
mul0ple
stakeholders
collec0vely
seek
to
halt
key
condi0ons:
Remote
monitoring,
educa0onal
programmes
and
focused
budgets
are
all
integrated
around
common
aims.

29. Ambulatory
Centres
Small,
local
walk-­‐in
centres
become
popular
for
care
and
light
interven0ons.
They
reduce
major
hospital
demand
and
provide
cost
savings
for
the
system
while
also
helping
pa0ents
avoid
the
‘taboo’
of
hospitalisa0on.

30. EnQtlement
is
not
Universal
The
implica0ons
for
some
become
clear:
we
need
a
different
healthcare
model,
we
need
technology
to
really
deliver
improvements
at
scale
and
at
low
cost
and
to
start
reducing
the
level
of
cover
to
a
good
propor0on
of
some
popula0ons.

31. Sources
of
Global
SoluQons
Global
healthcare
affordability
will
not
come
from
the
Unites
States
…
but
rather
from
those
na0ons
of
the
world
that
have
liKle
today
and
have
no
choice
but
to
perform
at
the
highest
levels
possible
in
the
future.

32. The
Changing
Nature
of
Privacy
As
privacy
is
a
public
issue,
more
interna0onal
frameworks
seek
to
govern
the
Internet,
protect
the
vulnerable
and
secure
personal
health
data:
The
balance
between
protec0on,
security,
privacy
and
public
good
is
increasingly
poli0cal.

33. Stronger
RegulaQon
Regula0on
becomes
increasing
proac0ve
and
integrated,
par0cularly
in
the
areas
of
global
harmonisa0on
and
increasingly
Health
Technology
Assessment.
Wider
consulta0on
becomes
commonplace
as
big
firms
gain.

34. GeneraQve
Manufacture
In-­‐theatre
prin0ng
of
bio-­‐materials
brings
mul0ple
opportuni0es
for
the
3D
building
of
biological
0ssue
and
bespoke
organs.
We
create
replacement
parts
that
are
made
from
our
‘own’
cells.

35. ElecQve
PrevenQon
Equipped
with
greater
understanding
of
the
individual’s
gene0c
disposi0on
and
new
interven0on
technologies,
we
proac0vely
edit
genes
and
undertake
minimally
invasive
surgery
to
reduce
the
need
for
major
surgery
in
later
years.

36. HolisQc
VisualisaQon
High
resolu0on
imaging
and
fast
developing
holographics
provide
us
with
the
ability
to
see,
interrogate
and
explore
within
the
body
before
first
incision.
This
changes
both
surgery
and
broader
pharmaceu0cal
treatment.

37. Payer
Control
In
the
search
for
lowered
costs,
increased
efficiencies
and
improved
outcomes,
payers
unify
and
become
more
hands
on
and
direc0ve
about
procedures
and
securing
the
best
return
on
health
possible.

38. Full
Journey
Interven0ons
are
parts
of
a
mul0-­‐step
journey
from
tailored
predic0on
through
personalised
planning
and
prepara0on
to
monitored
a]ercare.
Financial
payments
are
linked
to
long-­‐term
pa0ent
outcomes.

39. Customers
Before
Shareholders
Driven
by
changing
views
of
their
social
value,
corpora0ons
will
increasingly
seek
to
focus
more
on
real
customer
needs
and
so
decrease
emphasis
on
short-­‐term
pressure
from
shareholders.

40. Greater
Evidence
Wider
genera0on
and
sharing
of
data
shi]s
the
scale,
type
and
accuracy
of
evidence
used
to
make
decisions.
The
best
procedures
become
more
visible
and
are
beKer
supported
by
payers
and
the
wider
health
industry.

41. Wearable
Data
Ubiquitous
wearables
with
embedded
monitoring
and
diagnos0cs
unlock
inaccessible
pa0ent
data.
This
enables
real-­‐0me
preventa0ve
healthcare
solu0ons,
greater
personal
responsibility
and
a
realignment
of
insurance.

42. FUTURE
OF
PHARMA

43. Rising
Spending
/
Declining
Earnings
Led
by
oncology,
spending
on
global
pharmaceu0cal
con0nues
to
rise
with
developed
markets
the
main
focus
–
BUT
earnings
con0nue
to
decline
for
big
pharma
with
generics
taking
40%
of
the
market
by
2020

44. Vaccines
and
RegeneraQve
Medicine
Increasing
focus
and
funding
for
vaccines
to
prevent
infec0ous
and
chronic
diseases
accelerates
the
focus
for
many
pharmaceu0cals
from
illness
to
wellness.
Advances
in
surgical
0ssue
repair
add
momentum
to
this
shi].

45. Distributed
R&D
Capability
Faced
with
rising
costs,
many
R&D
labs
are
split
off
to
ring-­‐fence
risk.
More
collabora0on
accelerates
development
0mes,
big
data
analy0cs
drive
greater
simula0on
and
analy0cs
and
core
R&D
capability
shi]s
to
the
network.

46. China’s
Influence
Chinese
pharma
sales
double
over
the
decade
but
healthcare
reform
has
wider
impact.
Access
and
pricing
priori0es
predominate
as
funding
from
the
New
Development
Bank
and
others
is
focused
on
affordable,
effec0ve
healthcare.

47. Networked
R&D
Labs
More
partnerships,
increased
early
stage
compe0tor
collabora0on
and
shared
informa0on
lead
to
a
reconfigura0on
of
R&D
labs.
Big
pharma
spin-­‐outs
link
with
wider
biotech
/
data
partners
as
>
85%
drugs
come
from
co-­‐development.

48. Rethink
of
Intellectual
Property
20th
Century
approaches
for
IP
are
not
seen
as
fit
for
the
C
21st
-­‐
More
collabora0on,
state-­‐driven
agendas
and
pressure
on
the
entrenched
pharma
model
all
lead
to
a
fundamental
rethink
on
the
purpose
and
role
of
IP.

49. Value
and
Impact
As
quality
of
life
outcomes
predominate,
‘$
per
extra
week
of
life’
becomes
a
social
issue.
Demands
for
greater
impact
drive
earlier
diagnosis,
more
proac0ve
regula0on,
shorter
0me
to
market
and
a
rethink
of
where
to
focus
for
value.

50. Informed
Consumers
More
informed
and
demanding
pa0ents
become
partners
in
their
own
healthcare.
Equipped
with
a
wealth
of
personal
diagnos0c
and
monitoring
data,
consumers
challenge
regulators
and
healthcare
companies
to
improve.

51. Changing
Business
Models
Driven
by
new
approaches
for
emerging
markets
and
ver0cal
integra0on
on
pivotal
issues,
new
business
models
emerge.
Wider
insurance
in
India,
frugal
innova0on
and
more
government
focus
on
preven0on
act
as
change
catalysts.

52. Unmet
Middle
The
shi]
from
volume
to
value
supports
the
growth
in
high-­‐end
personalised
medicines
alongside
cheaper
mass-­‐market
generics.
Addressing
the
growing
middle
classes’
needs
for
affordable
healthcare
becomes
a
global
priority.

53. ShiT
in
Trust
Con0nued
trust
challenges
pervade
across
pharma
with
rising
demands
for
transparency
on
cost
and
effec0veness.
Broader
partnerships
beyond
life
sciences
embrace
trusted
data
brands
and
enable
borrow
equity.

54. THREE
KEY
SHIFTS
FOR
THE
NEXT
DECADE
Future
of
Pharma
Future
of
Health
Macro
Shi]s

55. Future
Agenda
84
Brook
Street
London
W1K
5EH
+44
203
0088
141
futureagenda.org
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program
What
do
you
think?
Join
In
|
Add
your
views
into
the
mix
www.futureagenda.org