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Future agenda 2.0 Singapore SMU 05 11 2015

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A talk given at SMU in Singapore as part of the Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship's Distinguished Speaker Series. Designed to share and discuss 20 of the emerging insights from the synthesis of the Future Agenda materials ahead of publication of new website in January 2016 - More info on http://iie.smu.edu.sg and future agenda.org

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Future agenda 2.0 Singapore SMU 05 11 2015

  1. 1. The World in 2025 | Emerging Insights From Future Agenda 2.0 SMU | Singapore | 5 November 2015 Dr Tim Jones | Programme Director
  2. 2. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mulFple views of the next decade so all can be beHer informed and sFmulate innovaFon.
  3. 3. Looking Forwards OrganisaFons increasingly want to idenFfy and understand both the anFcipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beHer prepared for the future.
  4. 4. Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisaFons around the world. And Future Agenda became the world’s largest open foresight plaNorm.
  5. 5. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interacFon and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 38 COUNTRIES 112 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
  6. 6. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place during 2015 and has been addressing 20+ topics via 100+ events in 45 ciFes in 38 countries in partnership with around 50 core hosts. Ageing CiOes Company ConnecOvity Data EducaOon Energy Food Government Health Learning Loyalty Payments Privacy Resources Transport Travel Water Wealth Work
  7. 7. Eight Key Themes Across the mulFple discussions, 86 emerging issues seem to be touching upon and connecFng with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes. Many of these provide significant opportuniFes for innovaFon. The Five CertainOes Interconnected Systems The Data RevoluOon Unequal Access Our Habitat Beliefs and Belonging Power and Influence Changing Business
  8. 8. Five CertainOes
  9. 9. Imbalanced PopulaOon Growth A growing populaFon is adding another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: A child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migraFon helps to rebalance some socieFes, increasing dependency raFos challenge all.
  10. 10. ShiVing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power conFnues shi_ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the realiFes of populaFon and resource locaFons are immoveable.
  11. 11. Everything Connected By 2025 over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mulFple networks: Everything that can benefit from a connecFon will have one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effecFvely but need to make sense of the informaFon that flows.
  12. 12. Interconnected Systems
  13. 13. Air Quality Rising air polluFon in many emerging ciFes is killing people and becomes the visible catalyst for changing mind-sets. It drives public support for new policies across health, energy, transportaFon and urban design.
  14. 14. Food Waste The 30-50% of food wasted either in the supply chain or in consumpFon could feed another 3 billion every day. Focus is on using data to opFmise distribuFon and storage in developing countries and enabling beHer consumer informaFon in others.
  15. 15. Urban Obesity Mass urbanisaFon, reduced acFvity and poor diets are acceleraFng the rise of obesity. As half the global populaFon is overweight, levels of obesity in most ciFes are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.
  16. 16. The Data RevoluOon
  17. 17. The Increasing Value of Data As organisaFons grab more data, it becomes a currency with a value and a price: It therefore requires marketplaces – transparent ecosystems for trading data - so anything that is informaFon is represented in data marketplaces.
  18. 18. Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents and data brokers curate clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of our informaFon: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.
  19. 19. Ethical Machines Machines are as smart as humans as automaFon spreads beyond trading and drones to driverless cars and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
  20. 20. Unequal Access
  21. 21. Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates already over 50% in some naFons, access to work is a rising barrier to many. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, a lost generaFon of 100m fails to connect with and gain from global growth.
  22. 22. EducaOon RevoluOon Networked schools and learning plaNorms encourage self-organised educaFon for all. Teachers provide prompts, not answers, and help students learn from one another. Non-linear high content learning becomes the global norm.
  23. 23. Our Habitat
  24. 24. Housing Everyone Mass migraFon and localised populaFon explosions drive up the cost of both housing access and home ownership. In many ciFes, this leads to the development of new living spaces and ownership models that try to accommodate more of us.
  25. 25. Off-Planet Living Rapid technological advances, coupled with the ambiFons of emerging powers and wealthy individuals, lead to a new race to colonise space. A priority in this is long-term habitaFon on Mars as the seed for a future New World migraFon.
  26. 26. Preparing for Resilience As we move forward wider recogniFon of adaptaFon to climate change plays an increasingly important role in defining and shaping both governmental and business ahtudes and risk strategies.
  27. 27. AcceleraOng Displacement A faster changing climate and rapidly increasing inequaliFes of opportunity add to conflict as sFmulus for mass migraFon north at an unprecedented scale. Over 1 billion are on the move over the next 30 to 50 years.
  28. 28. Beliefs and Belonging
  29. 29. Social CoagulaOon Geographically disparate groups (re)connect to reinforce ideas and exclude others - creaFng opportuniFes to reinforce ideas and normalise acFons which otherwise might seem extreme as they grow more powerful.
  30. 30. Aging in Community Individuals, families as well as healthcare payers desire to keep older people living healthy and independent loner. This requires upgraded infrastructure, transportaFon systems and thoughNul products and services.
  31. 31. The Age of Women In many regions, women have greater control, influence and increased leadership parFcipaFon. This changes decision-making, strengthens the representaFon of the feminine view and helps to drive more balanced acFons.
  32. 32. Power and Influence
  33. 33. New World Order As demographic shi_s, new alliances and economic challenges re-align global power and influence, new leaders emerge and control in the world changes in favour of some - but with others sFll holding the balance.
  34. 34. Africa Growth Despite concerns around governance and corrupFon, the aHracFon of rising populaFons, a growing workforce, 500m new middle class consumers and conFnued resource supplies aHract mulFple global brands to make Africa the #1 target market.
  35. 35. Purpose of Companies Successful organisaFons align their purpose with addressing specific societal and stakeholder needs and move beyond just focusing on creaFng shareholder value. A mulF-capital approach to integrated reporFng takes hold and spreads.
  36. 36. Changing Business
  37. 37. Speed to Scale Greater global connecFvity, growing average consumer wealth, broader reach and the adopFon of standard plaNorms all combine to accelerate the Fme to 1bn customers for start-ups and new corporate ventures alike.
  38. 38. Digital Money Cash is gradually replaced by digital money providing consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisaFons with lower cost transacFons. Wider adopFon enables new offers to proliferate – including in the black economy.
  39. 39. OrganisaOon 3.0 New forms of flaHer, project-based, collaboraFve, virtual, informal organisaFons dominate - enabled by technology and a global mobile workforce. As such the nature of work and the role of organisaFon itself blurs.
  40. 40. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org