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Philippine	
  Resources	
  Industry	
  –	
  Down	
  But	
  Not	
  Out	
  
	
  
A	
  few	
  months	
  into	
  his	
  presidency,	
  Rodrigo	
  Roa	
  Duterte	
  has	
  already	
  created	
  an	
  
impact	
  in	
  the	
  resources	
  industry.	
  	
  The	
  mining	
  industry	
  experienced	
  the	
  biggest	
  
clampdown	
   under	
   the	
   present	
   administration	
   when	
   the	
   Department	
   of	
  
Environment	
  and	
  Natural	
  Resources	
  (“DENR”)	
  undertook	
  an	
  intensive	
  audit	
  of	
  
the	
  operations	
  of	
  metallic	
  mining	
  companies	
  resulting	
  in	
  numerous	
  suspensions	
  
and	
  notices	
  of	
  violations.	
  	
  The	
  industry	
  was	
  not	
  helped	
  either	
  by	
  lower	
  demand	
  
for	
   bulk	
   commodities	
   combined	
   with	
   a	
   bleak	
   global	
   outlook	
   for	
   mineral	
  
production	
   resulting	
   in	
   a	
   fall	
   in	
   prices.	
   	
   On	
   the	
   other	
   hand,	
   global	
   energy	
  
investments	
  in	
  2015	
  were	
  also	
  down	
  due	
  to	
  a	
  sharp	
  fall	
  in	
  upstream	
  oil	
  and	
  gas	
  
capital	
  spending.	
  Petroleum	
  markets	
  are	
  flooded	
  with	
  cheap	
  crude	
  and	
  natural	
  
gas	
   amidst	
   growing	
   concerns	
   about	
   climate	
   change.	
   The	
   transition	
   to	
   a	
   low-­‐
carbon	
  energy	
  system	
  envisaged	
  in	
  the	
  Paris	
  Climate	
  Agreement	
  is	
  also	
  paving	
  
the	
  way	
  for	
  a	
  shift	
  in	
  investments	
  towards	
  renewable	
  energy.	
  	
  
	
  
World	
  Resources	
  Update	
  
	
  
The	
   forty	
   biggest	
   mining	
   companies	
   experienced	
   their	
   first-­‐ever	
   collective	
   net	
  
loss	
   in	
   2015.	
   Some	
   analysts	
   hope	
   that	
   late	
   2015	
   marked	
   the	
   bottom	
   of	
   the	
  
market,	
   which	
   was	
   followed	
   by	
   sporadic	
   rallies	
   in	
   early	
   2016	
   but	
   others	
  
dismissed	
   these	
   as	
   interpretations	
   of	
   increased	
   volatility.	
   Mining	
   companies	
  
realised	
   impairments	
   of	
   $53	
   billion	
   in	
   2015	
   and	
   have	
   now	
   written-­‐off	
   the	
  
equivalent	
   of	
   32%	
   of	
   capital	
   expenditures	
   spent	
   since	
   2010	
   resulting	
   in	
   the	
  
mothballing	
   of	
   marginal	
   projects	
   and	
   curtailing	
   capacity.	
   (PwC,	
   Mine	
   2016:	
  
Review	
  of	
  the	
  Global	
  Trends	
  in	
  the	
  Mining	
  Industry)	
  
	
  
On	
  the	
  energy	
  front,	
  petroleum	
  companies	
  have	
  largely	
  cut	
  back	
  on	
  exploration	
  
over	
  the	
  last	
  two	
  years	
  in	
  an	
  effort	
  to	
  reduce	
  costs	
  as	
  oil	
  prices	
  fell	
  from	
  over	
  
$100	
   a	
   barrel	
   to	
   roughly	
   $50	
   a	
   barrel.	
   While,	
   the	
   price	
   of	
   crude	
   has	
   risen	
   in	
  
recent	
   days	
   after	
   a	
   recent	
   agreement	
   among	
   OPEC	
   members	
   to	
   cut	
   output	
  
modestly	
   later	
   in	
   the	
   year,	
   industry	
   executives	
  continue	
   to	
   express	
   skepticism	
  
that	
  individual	
  member	
  countries	
  will	
  commit	
  to	
  curtail	
  production.	
  The	
  silver	
  
lining	
  is	
  that	
  with	
  the	
  industry	
  cutting	
  investment	
  in	
  exploration	
  and	
  production	
  
by	
  $250 billion	
  in	
  2015,	
  and	
  $70	
  billion	
  more	
  this	
  year,	
  it	
  is	
  only	
  a	
  matter	
  of	
  time	
  
before	
   demand	
   outstrips	
   supplies	
   and	
   prices	
   rise	
   again	
   significantly,	
   although	
  
not	
  until	
  2018	
  to	
  2020	
  at	
  the	
  earliest.	
  (Clifford	
  Krauss,	
  The	
  New	
  York	
  Times,	
  08	
  
October	
  2016)	
  
	
  
The	
  World	
  Energy	
  Investment	
  2016	
  published	
  by	
  the	
  Organisation	
  for	
  Economic	
  
Co-­‐operation	
  and	
  Development/International	
  Energy	
  Agency,	
  reported	
  that	
  oil,	
  
the	
   largest	
   primary	
   energy	
   source,	
   slightly	
   increased	
   its	
   share	
   of	
   the	
   global	
  
energy	
   mix.	
   Unlike	
   oil,	
   gas	
   demand	
   growth	
   remained	
   subdued	
   due	
   to	
   the	
  
slowdown	
   of	
   electricity	
   demand	
   and	
   the	
   expansion	
   of	
   renewables	
   that	
  
contributed	
  to	
  a	
  fall	
  in	
  gas-­‐fired	
  power	
  generation	
  investment.	
  In	
  addition,	
  low	
  
petroleum	
   prices	
   led	
   to	
   cuts	
   in	
   investment	
   in	
   upstream	
   and	
   transportation	
  
infrastructure,	
  with	
  most	
  major	
  gas	
  infrastructure	
  projects	
  in	
  East	
  Africa	
  and	
  the	
  
Eurasian	
  region	
  facing	
  delays.	
  	
  
	
  
According	
   to	
   the	
   BP	
   Statistical	
   Review	
   of	
   World	
   Energy	
   (June	
   2016),	
   global	
  
primary	
   energy	
   consumption	
   increased	
   by	
   just	
   1.0%	
   in	
   2015,	
   similar	
   to	
   the	
  
below-­‐average	
   growth	
   recorded	
   in	
   2014	
   (+1.1%)	
   and	
   well	
   below	
   its	
   10-­‐year	
  
average	
  of	
  1.9%	
  representing	
  the	
  lowest	
  global	
  growth	
  since	
  1998.	
  Renewables	
  
in	
  power	
  generation	
  continued	
  to	
  grow	
  robustly,	
  to	
  nearly	
  3%	
  of	
  global	
  primary	
  
energy	
   consumption,	
   while	
   coal	
   consumption	
   affected	
   by	
   climate	
   policy,	
  
recorded	
  the	
  largest	
  percentage	
  decline	
  on	
  record	
  falling	
  by	
  1.8%	
  in	
  2015,	
  well	
  
below	
  the	
  10-­‐year	
  average	
  annual	
  growth	
  of	
  2.1%.	
  Global	
  coal	
  production	
  fell	
  by	
  
4%,	
  with	
  large	
  declines	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  (-­‐10.4%),	
  Indonesia	
  (-­‐14.4%),	
  and	
  China	
  (-­‐2%).	
  
Coal’s	
   share	
   of	
   global	
   primary	
   energy	
   consumption	
   fell	
   to	
   29.2%,	
   the	
   lowest	
  
share	
  since	
  2005.	
  Global	
  carbon	
  dioxide	
  emissions	
  from	
  energy	
  are	
  estimated	
  to	
  
have	
   been	
   essentially	
   flat.	
   Energy	
   investments	
   are	
   not	
   yet	
   consistent	
   with	
   the	
  
transition	
   to	
   a	
   low-­‐carbon	
   energy	
   system	
   forecasted	
   in	
   the	
   Paris	
   Climate	
  
Agreement.	
  While	
  wind,	
  solar	
  PV	
  and	
  electric-­‐vehicle	
  investments	
  are	
  broadly	
  on	
  
a	
  trajectory	
  consistent	
  with	
  limiting	
  the	
  increase	
  in	
  global	
  temperature	
  to	
  2°C,	
  
investment	
  in	
  other	
  low-­‐carbon	
  technologies	
  is	
  falling	
  behind.	
  Renewable	
  energy	
  
sources	
   in	
   power	
   generation	
   continued	
   to	
   increase	
   in	
   2015,	
   reaching	
   2.8%	
   of	
  
global	
  energy	
  consumption,	
  up	
  from	
  0.8%	
  a	
  decade	
  ago.	
  Renewables	
  accounted	
  
for	
  6.7%	
  of	
  global	
  power	
  generation.	
  	
  
	
  
Upheaval	
  in	
  the	
  Mining	
  Industry	
  
	
  
Table	
   1	
   shows	
   the	
   current	
   operating	
   mines	
   supervised	
   by	
   the	
   Mines	
   and	
  
Geosciences	
   Bureau	
   (“MGB”)	
   together	
   with	
   approve	
   and	
   subsisting	
   mining	
  
tenements.	
  
	
  
OPERATING	
  MINES	
  
45	
  metallic	
  mines	
  in	
  operation	
  
• 27	
  nickel	
  mines	
  
• 6	
  gold	
  mines	
  
• 3	
  copper	
  mines	
  
• 4	
  chromite	
  mines	
  
• 5	
  iron	
  mines	
  
• 	
  
5	
  processing	
  plants	
  	
  
• 2	
  nickel	
  processing	
  plants	
  (Coral	
  Bay	
  in	
  Palawan	
  and	
  Taganito	
  HPAL	
  in	
  
Surigao)	
  
• 1	
  copper	
  processing	
  plant	
  (PASAR	
  in	
  Leyte)	
  	
  
• 2	
  gold	
  processing	
  plants	
  (Philippine	
  Gold	
  Processing	
  and	
  Refining	
  
Corporation	
  in	
  Masbate	
  and	
  Mindanao	
  Mineral	
  Processing	
  and	
  Refining	
  
Corporation	
  in	
  Agusan	
  del	
  Sur)	
  
	
  	
  
More	
  than	
  2000	
  operations	
  for	
  sand	
  and	
  gravel	
  and	
  other	
  non-­‐metallic	
  minerals	
  
in	
  the	
  country	
  
	
  
MINING	
  TENEMENTS	
  	
  
Major	
  approved/existing	
  mining	
  tenements	
  
• Mineral	
  Production	
  Sharing	
  Agreement	
  –	
  339	
  
• Special	
  Mines	
  Permit	
  -­‐	
  2	
  
• Exploration	
  Permit	
  –	
  31	
  
• Financial	
  or	
  Technical	
  Assistance	
  Agreement	
  –	
  6	
  
• Mineral	
  Processing	
  Permit	
  –	
  46	
  
• Industrial	
  Sand	
  and	
  Gravel	
  Permit	
  –	
  144	
  
• Mining	
  Patents–	
  223	
  
	
  
165	
  applications	
  for	
  Exploration	
  Permit	
  accepted	
  since	
  the	
  lifting	
  of	
  moratorium	
  
in	
  March	
  2013;	
  12	
  were	
  approved	
  	
  
	
  
6	
  advance	
  projects	
  with	
  approved	
  DMPF	
  
• Balabag	
  Gold-­‐Silver	
  Project	
  (	
  Zamboanga	
  del	
  Sur)	
  
• Ipilan	
  Nickel	
  Project	
  (Palawan)	
  
• Hallmark/Austral-­‐Asia	
  Pujada	
  Nickel	
  Projects	
  (Davao	
  Oriental)	
  
• Kingking	
  Copper-­‐Gold	
  Project	
  of	
  NADECOR	
  (Compostela	
  Valley)	
  
• Boyongan-­‐	
  Bayugo	
  Copper-­‐Gold	
  Project	
  of	
  Philex	
  (Surigao	
  del	
  Norte)	
  
• Comet	
  Dinagat	
  Nickel	
  Project	
  of	
  Comet	
  Mining	
  (Dinagat	
  Islands)	
  
	
  
4	
  advance	
  projects	
  with	
  DMPF	
  under	
  final	
  review	
  
• Apoland	
  Limestone	
  Quarry	
  Project	
  (Cebu)	
  
• Rodriguez	
  Quarry	
  Project-­‐	
  Montalban	
  Millex	
  (Rizal)	
  
• Sta.	
  Cruz	
  Chromite	
  Project-­‐Shangfil	
  Mining	
  (Zambales)	
  
• Tampakan	
  Copper	
  Project-­‐	
  (South	
  Cotabato)	
  
	
  
Table	
  1.	
  Mining	
  Operations	
  and	
  Mining	
  Tenements	
  (MGB,	
  April	
  2016)	
  
	
  
The	
  DENR	
  just	
  concluded	
  its	
  nationwide	
  audit	
  of	
  metallic	
  mine	
  operations	
  and	
  
recommended	
   the	
   suspension	
   of	
   twenty	
   (20)	
   mining	
   operations	
   for	
  
environmental	
  violations,	
  unsystematic	
  mining	
  methods	
  and	
  outstanding	
  social	
  
issues	
   on	
   top	
   of	
   the	
   ten	
   (10)	
   others	
   including	
   eight	
   (8)	
   nickel	
   producers	
   that	
  
were	
   earlier	
   suspended	
   for	
   environmental	
   violations.	
   Secretary	
   Regina	
   Paz	
  
Lopez	
  announced	
  that	
  the	
  DENR	
  would	
  commence	
  a	
  review	
  of	
  previously	
  issued	
  
environmental	
  compliance	
  certificates	
  (“ECC”)	
  and	
  mineral	
  production	
  sharing	
  
agreements.	
   Lopez	
   said	
   the	
   review	
   would	
   cover	
   around	
   eight	
   hundred	
   (800)	
  
ECCs	
   and	
   added	
   that	
   she	
   wants	
   to	
   put	
   a	
   moratorium	
   on	
   the	
   opening	
   of	
   new	
  
mines.	
  Lopez	
  is	
  reportedly	
  going	
  to	
  do	
  a	
  similar	
  exercise	
  on	
  non-­‐metallic	
  mines	
  
including	
  coalmines	
  and	
  quarries.	
  
	
  
In	
   the	
   meantime,	
   the	
   Chamber	
   of	
   Mines	
   of	
   the	
   Philippines	
   (“COMP”)	
   is	
   now	
  
requesting	
   mine	
   regulators	
   for	
   clear	
   direction	
   following	
   the	
   exit	
   of	
  
Undersecretary	
   and	
   former	
   MGB	
   Director	
   Leo	
   Jasareno,	
   who	
   was	
   earlier	
  
deputized	
   by	
   Lopez	
   to	
   head	
   the	
   mines	
   audit.	
   As	
   at	
   writing,	
   none	
   of	
   COMP’s	
  
member	
   companies	
   recommended	
   for	
   suspension	
   has	
   yet	
   to	
   receive	
   a	
   show	
  
cause	
  letter	
  asking	
  them	
  to	
  explain	
  why	
  their	
  operations	
  shouldn’t	
  be	
  stopped.	
  	
  
	
  
Industry	
  insiders	
  deplore	
  the	
  lack	
  of	
  transparency	
  in	
  the	
  manner	
  the	
  audits	
  were	
  
conducted	
  noting	
  that	
  the	
  names	
  of	
  the	
  suspended	
  mining	
  companies	
  have	
  been	
  
released	
  to	
  the	
  media	
  absent	
  the	
  detailed	
  reasons	
  for	
  such	
  suspensions.	
  At	
  least	
  
four	
   miners	
   recommended	
   for	
   suspension	
   are	
   currently	
   nominated	
   for	
   the	
  
annual	
  presidential	
  awards	
  on	
  good	
  mining	
  practice,	
  which	
  recognise	
  companies	
  
with	
  exemplary	
  performance	
  in	
  environmental	
  management,	
  safety	
  and	
  health,	
  
and	
   social	
   development	
   and	
   management	
   programs.	
   The	
   industry	
   also	
  
questioned	
  the	
  oversight	
  and	
  involvement	
  in	
  the	
  mine	
  audit	
  of	
  Jasareno	
  who	
  for	
  
the	
   past	
   six	
   years	
   supervised	
   many	
   of	
   the	
   suspended	
   mines	
   in	
   his	
   capacity	
   as	
  
MGB	
  director.	
  In	
  addition,	
  the	
  industry	
  was	
  disturbed	
  with	
  the	
  inclusion	
  in	
  the	
  
technical	
   audit	
   of	
   non-­‐technical	
   members	
   from	
   some	
   anti-­‐mining	
   civil	
   society	
  
groups.	
  	
  
	
  
Eugenia	
  Victorino,	
  economist	
  at	
  the	
  Australia	
  and	
  New	
  Zealand	
  Banking	
  Group	
  
Ltd.	
   (“ANZ	
   Bank”)	
   said	
   the	
   environmental	
   audit	
   of	
   the	
   mining	
   industry	
   could	
  
significantly	
   cut	
   production	
   and	
   export	
   revenues.	
   While	
   the	
   ANZ	
   Bank	
   sees	
  
limited	
  impact	
  on	
  growth,	
  the	
  risk	
  is	
  that	
  more	
  suspensions	
  in	
  mining	
  production	
  
could	
   lead	
   to	
   a	
   further	
   deterioration	
   in	
   the	
   trade	
   deficit,	
   resulting	
   in	
   a	
   much	
  
narrower	
  current	
  account	
  surplus	
  next	
  year.	
  	
  
	
  
Justino	
  Calaycay,	
  Jr.	
  of	
  A&A	
  Securities	
  said	
  that	
  the	
  “crackdown”	
  on	
  miners	
  could	
  
have	
   an	
   impact	
   on	
   unemployment	
   and	
   consumer	
   spending.	
   By	
   his	
   analysis,	
  
unemployment,	
  which	
  currently	
  stands	
  at	
  5.4%,	
  could	
  rise	
  to	
  between	
  5.8%	
  to	
  
6.0%	
  while	
  economic	
  growth	
  could	
  drag	
  to	
  between	
  6.0%	
  to	
  6.2%	
  if	
  and	
  when	
  
the	
  uncertainties	
  clouding	
  over	
  the	
  mining	
  sector’s	
  horizon	
  continues.	
  
	
  
The	
  DENR	
  is	
  also	
  expected	
  to	
  embark	
  on	
  the	
  audit	
  of	
  coal-­‐fired	
  power	
  plants	
  to	
  
determine	
   their	
   compliance	
   with	
   environmental	
   standards.	
   	
   The	
   DENR	
   will	
  
commence	
   the	
   crafting	
   of	
   audit	
   guidelines	
   and	
   criteria	
   with	
   focus	
   on	
   the	
  
conditions	
  given	
  to	
  firms	
  that	
  obtained	
  ECCs.	
  The	
  ECC	
  review	
  will	
  include	
  not	
  
only	
  operating	
  coal-­‐fired	
  plants,	
  but	
  also	
  those	
  undergoing	
  construction	
  and	
  new	
  
applications.	
   First	
   on	
   Secretary	
   Lopez’s	
   list	
   is	
   Semirara	
   Mining	
   and	
   Power	
  
Corporation,	
   the	
   country’s	
   largest	
   coal	
   mine,	
   which	
   was	
   earlier	
   directed	
   to	
  
explain	
   why	
   its	
   ECC	
   for	
   its	
   Molave	
   expansion	
   plant	
   in	
   Antique	
   should	
   not	
   be	
  
cancelled.	
   	
   It	
   should	
   be	
   noted	
   that	
   Lopez’	
   family	
   have	
   investments	
   in	
   power	
  
companies	
  generated	
  by	
  renewables,	
  which	
  may	
  put	
  her	
  in	
  a	
  potential	
  conflict	
  of	
  
interest	
  by	
  reason	
  of	
  this	
  directive.	
  
	
  
Needless	
   to	
   say,	
   suspensions	
   or	
   closures	
   of	
   existing	
   coal-­‐fired	
   power	
   plants,	
  
cancelling	
   of	
   ECCs	
   of	
   plants	
   under	
   construction,	
   and	
   moratorium	
   on	
   ECC	
  
applications	
   will	
   have	
   a	
   tremendous	
   impact	
   on	
   the	
   country’s	
   baseload	
   power	
  
supply	
  and	
  prices,	
  as	
  coal	
  accounts	
  for	
  about	
  44%	
  of	
  the	
  country’s	
  current	
  total	
  
power	
  mix.	
  Figure	
  1	
  shows	
  existing,	
  committed	
  and	
  indicative	
  coal-­‐fired	
  power	
  
plants	
  while	
  Table	
  2	
  lists	
  existing	
  power	
  plants.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
 
Figure	
  1.	
  Existing,	
  Committed	
  and	
  Indicative	
  Coal-­‐fired	
  Power	
  Plants	
  as	
  at	
  September,	
  
2016	
  (DOE)	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Table	
  2.	
  List	
  of	
  Existing	
  Coal-­‐fired	
  Power	
  Plants	
  (DOE)	
  
	
  
On	
  a	
  bright	
  note,	
  the	
  MGB	
  is	
  now	
  advancing	
  its	
  review	
  of	
  the	
  small-­‐scale	
  mining	
  
regulatory	
  framework.	
  The	
  MGB	
  announced	
  that	
  it	
  will	
  engage	
  all	
  provincial	
  and	
  
city	
   mining	
   regulatory	
   boards	
   in	
   a	
   conference	
   in	
   order	
   “to	
   thresh	
   out	
   issues	
  
hindering	
  the	
  formalization	
  of	
  the	
  small-­‐scale	
  mining	
  sector	
  and	
  provide	
  inputs	
  
to	
   enhance	
   the	
   existing	
   policies	
   toward	
   a	
   responsible	
   industry.”	
   “The	
   national	
  
review	
   of	
   the	
   existing	
   rules	
   and	
   regulations	
   on	
   small-­‐scale	
   mining	
   aims	
   to	
  
increase	
  the	
  effectiveness,	
  efficiency	
  and	
  transparency	
  of	
  the	
  governing	
  bodies	
  
for	
  the	
  promotion	
  of	
  responsible	
  small-­‐scale	
  mining,”	
  the	
  MGB	
  said.	
  Large-­‐scale	
  
miners	
  have	
  often	
  cited	
  small-­‐scale	
  mining	
  operations	
  as	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  main	
  culprits	
  
in	
   environmental	
   violations	
   and	
   excesses	
   because	
   the	
   sector	
   has	
   been	
   weakly	
  
regulated	
  which	
  allowed	
  existing	
  laws	
  and	
  regulations	
  to	
  be	
  circumvented.	
  
	
  
Upstream	
  Petroleum	
  Still	
  Charting	
  Stormy	
  Waters	
  
	
  
Unless	
   new	
   fields	
   are	
   discovered	
   and	
   developed,	
   petroleum	
   production	
   in	
  
Northwest	
  Palawan	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  cease	
  in	
  2027	
  when	
  the	
  Malampaya	
  reserves	
  
are	
   depleted.	
   Other	
   existing	
   fields	
   are	
   currently	
   under	
   cyclical	
   production	
   and	
  
nearing	
   depletion.	
   Some	
   service	
   contractors	
   on	
   the	
   other	
   hand	
   have	
   filed	
   for	
  
technical	
  moratorium	
  status	
  as	
  commercial	
  studies	
  indicated	
  that	
  under	
  current	
  
oil	
  prices,	
  development	
  of	
  the	
  discoveries	
  is	
  not	
  economically	
  feasible.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Table	
  3.	
  Current	
  Producing	
  Petroleum	
  Service	
  Contracts	
  (DOE,	
  December	
  2015)	
  
	
  
The	
  constitutional	
  challenge	
  against	
  Service	
  Contract	
  No.	
  46	
  (“SC	
  46”)	
  known	
  as	
  
the	
   Resident	
   Marine	
   Mammal	
   Case,	
   also	
   continues	
   to	
   hound	
   the	
   upstream	
  
industry.	
  	
  The	
  Supreme	
  Court	
  nullified	
  SC	
  46	
  on	
  ground	
  that	
  the	
  contract	
  was	
  not	
  
personally	
   signed	
   by	
   the	
   President	
   in	
   violation	
   of	
   Section	
   2,	
   Article	
   XII	
   of	
   the	
  
1987	
  Constitution.	
  The	
  DOE	
  through	
  the	
  Office	
  of	
  the	
  Solicitor	
  General	
  (“OSG”)	
  
appealed	
  the	
  decision	
  citing	
  the	
  qualified	
  political	
  agency	
  principle,	
  which	
  allows	
  
the	
   DOE	
   Secretary	
   to	
   sign	
   on	
   behalf	
   of	
   the	
   President	
   by	
   virtue	
   of	
   a	
   Special	
  
Authority,	
  and	
  consistent	
  with	
  a	
  legal	
  opinion	
  given	
  by	
  the	
  Office	
  of	
  the	
  President	
  
on	
  22	
  August	
  1988.	
  	
  
	
  
The	
  industry	
  is	
  also	
  weighed	
  down	
  by	
  Commission	
  on	
  Audit	
  Decision	
  No.	
  2015-­‐	
  
115,	
   affirming	
   a	
   Notice	
   of	
   Charge	
   for	
   income	
   tax	
   deducted	
   from	
   the	
   national	
  
wealth	
  share	
  of	
  the	
  Philippine	
  Government	
  and	
  directing	
  the	
  DOE	
  to	
  collect	
  P53	
  
billion	
   from	
   the	
   SC	
   38	
   Consortium	
   (composed	
   of	
   Shell	
   Philippines	
   Exploration	
  
B.V.	
   Chevron	
   Malampaya	
   LLC,	
   and	
   PNOC	
   Exploration	
   Corporation).	
   COA’s	
  
Regional	
   Cluster	
   Position	
   is	
   that	
   Presidential	
   Decree	
   No.	
   87	
   (“PD	
   87”)	
   did	
   not	
  
allow	
   tax	
   exemption	
   nor	
   tax	
   assumption.	
   This	
   is	
   under	
   appeal	
   with	
   the	
  
Commission	
   by	
   the	
   DOE	
   through	
   the	
   OSG	
   citing	
   that	
   PD	
   87	
   allowed	
   tax	
  
assumption.	
  	
  The	
  SC	
  38	
  consortium	
  has	
  also	
  brought	
  the	
  matter	
  to	
  arbitration.	
  
	
  
Meanwhile,	
   the	
   West	
   Philippine	
   Sea	
   maritime	
   dispute	
   continues	
   to	
   disrupt	
  
petroleum	
   exploration	
   in	
   the	
   country	
   despite	
   the	
   Philippines	
   obtaining	
   a	
  
favourable	
   ruling	
   from	
   the	
   Permanent	
   Court	
   of	
   Arbitration,	
   which	
   ruled	
   the	
  
invalidity	
  of	
  China’s	
  Nine-­‐Dash	
  Line	
  and	
  that	
  it	
  violated	
  the	
  exclusive	
  right	
  of	
  the	
  
Philippines	
   to	
   its	
   Exclusive	
   Economic	
   Zone	
   (“EEZ”)	
   by	
   interfering	
   with	
   the	
  
petroleum	
  activities	
  of	
  Filipino	
  vessels	
  in	
  the	
  EEZ.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
The	
   award	
   of	
   three	
   (3)	
   petroleum	
   service	
   contracts	
   in	
   the	
   recently	
   conducted	
  
Philippine	
  Energy	
  Contracting	
  Round	
  No.	
  5	
  is	
  still	
  pending	
  and	
  dependent	
  on	
  the	
  
resolution	
   of	
   these	
   issues.	
   	
   The	
   good	
   news	
   in	
   the	
   oilpatch	
   is	
   the	
   development	
  
activities	
   under	
   SC	
   49	
   being	
   done	
   by	
   a	
   HK-­‐listed	
   exploration	
   company	
   in	
  
Southern	
  Cebu	
  following	
  its	
  declaration	
  of	
  commerciality.	
  
	
  
Geothermal	
  Energy	
  on	
  a	
  Plateau	
  
	
  
Geothermal	
  production	
  in	
  the	
  Philippines	
  has	
  seen	
  a	
  steady	
  decline	
  during	
  the	
  
past	
  decade.	
  	
  Table	
  4	
  shows	
  that	
  since	
  2005,	
  there	
  was	
  a	
  negative	
  increment	
  of	
  
145	
  MWe	
  in	
  geothermal	
  plant	
  commissioning.	
  
	
  
Location	
   Commissioned	
   Decommissioned	
  
Northern	
  Negros	
  	
   50	
   	
  
Tiwi	
  Unit	
  4	
  	
   	
   110	
  
Northern	
  Negros	
   	
   50	
  	
  
Tiwi	
  Unit	
  3	
   	
   55	
  	
  
Botong	
   	
   20	
  	
  
Maibarara	
   20	
   	
  
Nasuji	
   	
   20	
  
Nasulo	
  	
   30	
   	
  
Bacman	
  1	
  Re-­‐engineering	
   10	
   	
  
Total	
   110	
   255	
  
Table	
  4.	
  Development	
  increments	
  and	
  plant	
  decommissioning	
  since	
  2005	
  (DOE)	
  
	
  
The	
  DOE	
  in	
  coordination	
  with	
  the	
  private	
  industry	
  realizes	
  that	
  it	
  can	
  no	
  longer	
  
hope	
  to	
  discover	
  conventional,	
  “elephant-­‐sized”	
  geothermal	
  resources	
  as	
  these	
  
have	
   been	
   fully	
   accessed	
   and	
   evaluated	
   by	
   the	
   former	
   state-­‐owned	
   energy	
  
development	
  and	
  public	
  utility	
  companies.	
  There	
  is	
  now	
  an	
  urgency	
  to	
  apply	
  new	
  
development	
  technologies	
  to	
  what	
  previously	
  were	
  considered	
  to	
  be	
  second	
  tier	
  
resources	
  e.g.	
  technologies	
  that	
  can	
  utilize	
  acidic	
  and	
  young	
  geothermal	
  systems,	
  
development	
   of	
   low	
   enthalpy	
   geothermal	
   systems,	
   direct	
   use	
   of	
   small-­‐scale	
  
geothermal	
  energy	
  technologies	
  (for	
  example,	
  modular	
  well	
  head	
  turbines),	
  and	
  
hybrid	
  technologies.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
With	
   an	
   appropriately	
   structured	
   feed-­‐in	
   tariff	
   (“FIT”)	
   rate	
   that	
   will	
   provide	
  
guaranteed	
   payment	
   to	
   investors	
   through	
   a	
   universal	
   charge,	
   these	
   acidic	
   and	
  
lower	
  enthalpy	
  resources	
  can	
  be	
  developed	
  to	
  generate	
  electricity.	
  In	
  order	
  to	
  
address	
   the	
   barriers	
   related	
   to	
   costs	
   and	
   resource	
   exploration	
   risks	
   faced	
   by	
  
geothermal	
   energy	
   developers,	
   the	
   National	
   Geothermal	
   Association	
   of	
   the	
  
Philippines	
  (“NGAP”)	
  calls	
  for	
  the	
  coverage	
  under	
  the	
  FIT	
  program	
  of	
  geothermal	
  
emerging	
  technologies	
  currently	
  not	
  commercially	
  viable	
  under	
  existing	
  market	
  
and	
  pricing	
  structures.	
  Under	
  the	
  Renewable	
  Energy	
  Act	
  of	
  2008	
  (“RE	
  Act”),	
  FIT	
  is	
  
provided	
   to	
   solar,	
   wind	
   and	
   other	
   renewable	
   energy	
   sources	
   considered	
  
“emerging	
  technology”,	
  to	
  the	
  exclusion	
  of	
  geothermal.	
  
	
  
Some	
  geothermal	
  power	
  plant	
  projects	
  may	
  languish	
  because	
  of	
  the	
  lower	
  cost	
  of	
  
coal-­‐fired	
   power	
   generation	
   but	
   this	
   can	
   be	
   addressed	
   by	
   prompt	
  
implementation	
  of	
  the	
  Renewable	
  Portfolio	
  Standard	
  and	
  Green	
  Energy	
  Option	
  
under	
   the	
   RE	
   Act,	
   which	
   will	
   incentivize	
   utilities	
   to	
   contract	
   for	
   geothermal	
  
power.	
   On	
   a	
   bright	
   note,	
   the	
   DOE	
   is	
   receptive	
   to	
   the	
   proposal	
   of	
   including	
  
geothermal	
  emerging-­‐technology	
  for	
  inclusion	
  in	
  the	
  FIT	
  system,	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  
recommendation	
  of	
  the	
  National	
  Renewable	
  Energy	
  Board,	
  which	
  must	
  carry	
  out	
  
an	
  extensive	
  study	
  on	
  the	
  proposal.	
  	
  Following	
  a	
  series	
  of	
  public	
  consultations	
  
with	
  RE	
  stakeholders,	
  the	
  Senate	
  Committee	
  on	
  Energy	
  is	
  looking	
  to	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  
amending	
  the	
  RE	
  Act	
  and	
  formally	
  requested	
  NGAP	
  to	
  submit	
  its	
  position	
  paper	
  
on	
  the	
  proposal.	
  
	
  
Facing	
  the	
  Constantly	
  Shifting	
  Regulatory	
  Headwinds	
  
	
  
On	
   the	
   policy	
   front,	
   the	
   Duterte	
   administration	
   through	
   its	
   ten-­‐point	
   socio-­‐
economic	
   agenda	
   seeks	
   to	
   expedite	
   permitting	
   approvals,	
   which	
   hopefully	
   can	
  
ease	
   the	
   bottlenecks	
   in	
   the	
   highly	
   regulated	
   resources	
   industry.	
   However,	
  
expedited	
  regulatory	
  actions	
  and	
  permit	
  approvals	
  continue	
  to	
  be	
  on	
  top	
  of	
  the	
  
wish	
   list	
   of	
   resource	
   developers.	
   Table	
   5	
   lists	
   current	
   petroleum	
   service	
  
contracts	
  under	
  notices	
  of	
  Force	
  Majeure	
  by	
  operators	
  by	
  reasons	
  of	
  permitting	
  
issues	
  and	
  regulatory	
  uncertainties.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Service	
  
Contract	
  No.	
  
Location	
   Operator	
   Commitment	
  Status	
  
	
  
53	
   Mindoro	
  
(Mindoro-­‐
Cuyo)	
  
	
  
Pitkin	
  Petroleum	
  Ltd.	
   Under	
   Force	
   Majeure	
   due	
   to	
   issue	
   with	
   Indigenous	
  
Peoples	
  in	
  the	
  area	
  
57	
   N.	
  Calamian	
  
(NW	
  
Palawan)	
  
	
  
PNOC-­‐EC	
   Under	
   Force	
   Majeure	
   due	
   to	
   a	
   pending	
   Farm-­‐In	
  
Agreement	
  with	
  CNOOC	
  for	
  approval	
  by	
  the	
  President	
  
58	
   W.	
  Calamian	
  
(NW	
  
Palawan)	
  
	
  
Nido	
  Petroleum	
  
Philippines	
  Pty.	
  Ltd.	
  
Under	
  Force	
  Majeure	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  dispute	
  in	
  the	
  West	
  
Philippine	
  Sea	
  
72	
   Recto	
  Bank	
   Forum	
  (GSEC	
  101)	
  Ltd.	
   Under	
  Force	
  Majeure	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  dispute	
  in	
  the	
  West	
  
Philippine	
  Sea	
  
75	
   NW	
  Palawan	
   Philex	
  Petroleum	
  
Corporation	
  
Under	
  Force	
  Majeure	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  dispute	
  in	
  the	
  West	
  
Philippine	
  Sea	
  
Table	
  5.	
  Petroleum	
  Service	
  Contracts	
  Under	
  Force	
  Majeure	
  (DOE)	
  
	
  
Table	
  6	
  on	
  the	
  other	
  hand,	
  shows	
  geothermal	
  service	
  contracts	
  currently	
  bogged	
  
down	
  by	
  issues	
  in	
  relation	
  to	
  claims	
  by	
  indigenous	
  peoples	
  (IPs),	
  opposition	
  from	
  
local	
  government	
  units,	
  and	
  area	
  conflicts	
  with	
  national	
  parks.	
  	
  
	
  
Project	
  Name	
   Contract	
  No.	
   Location	
   Potential	
  
Capacity	
  (MWe)	
  
Permits	
  and	
  Clearances	
  
Issues	
  
	
  
Sal-­‐Lapadan-­‐Boliney-­‐
Bucloc-­‐Tubo	
  
	
  
GSC	
  2011-­‐12-­‐209	
   Abra	
   TBD	
   IP	
  and	
  National	
  Park	
  
Kalinga	
   GRESC	
  2010-­‐03-­‐24	
   Kalinga	
   60	
   IP	
  and	
  LGU	
  
	
  
Cagua-­‐Baua	
   GRESC	
  2011-­‐12-­‐028	
   Cagayan	
   40	
   IP	
  
	
  
Cervantes	
   GSC	
  2011-­‐12-­‐030	
   Ilocos	
  Sur/	
  Mt.	
  
Provice/	
  Benguet	
  
	
  
TBD	
   IP	
  
East	
  Mankayan	
   GRESC	
  2013-­‐11-­‐041	
   Ifugao/	
  Benguet/	
  
Mt.	
  Province	
  
	
  
TBD	
   IP	
  
Daklan	
   GRESC	
  2010-­‐02-­‐017	
   Benguet/	
  Nueva	
  
Vizcaya	
  
	
  
60	
   IP	
  
Negron-­‐Cuadrado	
   GRESC	
  2013-­‐02-­‐040	
   Zambales/	
  
Pampanga	
  
	
  
TBD	
   IP	
  
Puting	
  Lupa	
   GRESC	
  2014-­‐01-­‐349	
   Laguna	
   TBD	
   Protected	
  Area	
  
	
  
Southern	
  Bicol	
   GRESC	
  2010-­‐02-­‐015	
   Sorsogon	
   40	
   LGU	
  
	
  
West	
  Bulusan	
   GSC	
  2013-­‐11-­‐048	
   Sorsogon	
   TBD	
   LGU	
  
	
  
Mandalagan	
   GSC	
  2012-­‐01-­‐036	
   Negros	
  Occidental	
  
	
  
20	
   LGU	
  
Balingasag	
   GSC	
  2012-­‐01-­‐039	
   Misamis	
  Oriental/	
  
Bukidnon	
  
	
  
20	
   LGU	
  
Mt.	
  Zion	
   GSC	
  2012-­‐01-­‐037	
   North	
  Cotabato/	
  
Davao	
  del	
  Sur	
  
	
  
20	
   IP	
  and	
  National	
  Park	
  
Mt.	
  Zion2	
   GSC	
  2012-­‐01-­‐037	
   North	
  Cotabato/	
  
Davao	
  del	
  Sur	
  
	
  
20	
   IP	
  and	
  National	
  Park	
  
Mt.	
  Talomo/Tico	
   GSC	
  2013-­‐11-­‐046	
   North	
  Cotabato/	
  
Davao	
  del	
  Sur	
  
	
  
TBD	
   IP	
  and	
  National	
  Park	
  
Mt.	
  Sibulan/	
  
Kapatagan	
  
GSC	
  2013-­‐11-­‐047	
   Davao	
  del	
  Sur	
   TBD	
   IP	
  and	
  National	
  Park	
  
Table	
  6.	
  Geothermal	
  Exploration	
  Projects	
  with	
  Permitting	
  Issues	
  (DOE)	
  
	
  
Recently,	
  resource	
  developers	
  have	
  to	
  contend	
  not	
  only	
  with	
  the	
  DENR	
  but	
  also	
  
with	
  the	
  Department	
  of	
  Agrarian	
  Reform	
  (“DAR”),	
  which	
  seeks	
  to	
  to	
  declare	
  a	
  
two-­‐year	
   moratorium	
   on	
   land	
   conversion	
   and	
   upholding	
   the	
   validities	
   of	
  
Certificate	
  of	
  Land	
  Ownership	
  Award	
  (“CLOA”)	
  on	
  mineral	
  lands.	
  
	
  
The	
   proposed	
   moratorium	
   will	
   prevent	
   the	
   conversion	
   of	
   agricultural	
   land	
   to	
  
industrial	
   land,	
   intended	
   for	
   declaring	
   mineral	
   lands	
   and	
   building	
   power	
  
facilities.	
   Business	
   and	
   economic	
   organizations	
   composed	
   of	
   the	
   Philippine	
  
Chamber	
  of	
  Commerce	
  and	
  Industry,	
  the	
  Foundation	
  for	
  Economic	
  Freedom,	
  the	
  
Makati	
   Business	
   Club,	
   the	
   Management	
   Association	
   of	
   the	
   Philippines,	
   the	
  
Philippine	
  Exporters	
  Confederation,	
  the	
  American	
  Chamber	
  of	
  Commerce	
  of	
  the	
  
Philippines,	
   the	
   European	
   Chamber	
   of	
   Commerce	
   of	
   the	
   Philippines	
   and	
   the	
  
Japanese	
  Chamber	
  of	
  Commerce	
  of	
  the	
  Philippines,	
  warned	
  in	
  a	
  joint	
  statement	
  
that	
  the	
  plan	
  of	
  the	
  DAR	
  would	
  be	
  detrimental	
  to	
  rural	
  development	
  and	
  creation	
  
of	
  more	
  jobs.	
  The	
  group	
  noted	
  that	
  there	
  are	
  “lands	
  classified	
  as	
  agricultural	
  that	
  
are	
  low-­‐yielding	
  and	
  unproductive	
  and	
  preventing	
  conversion	
  of	
  such	
  lands	
  to	
  
more	
   productive	
   uses...	
   goes	
   against...	
   development	
   of	
   unproductive,	
   idle	
  
agricultural	
   land	
   that	
   could	
   be	
   better-­‐used	
   for	
   commercial,	
   residential	
   and	
  
industrial	
  uses.”	
  
	
  
DAR	
  Secretary	
  Rafael	
  Mariano	
  said	
  he	
  is	
  also	
  bent	
  on	
  upholding	
  the	
  validity	
  of	
  
issued	
  CLOAs,	
  even	
  if	
  it	
  would	
  affect	
  mining	
  sites.	
  Mariano,	
  a	
  militant	
  farmer	
  and	
  
former	
  chairman	
  of	
  the	
  Kilusang	
  Magbubukid	
  ng	
  Pilipinas,	
  added	
  that	
  he	
  is	
  not	
  
keen	
  on	
  canceling	
  the	
  CLOAs	
  issued	
  within	
  the	
  Tampakan	
  Copper-­‐Gold	
  Project	
  in	
  
Southern	
  Mindanao.	
  Mariano	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  progressives	
  appointed	
  to	
  the	
  Duterte	
  
cabinet	
  and	
  a	
  vocal	
  critic	
  of	
  the	
  mining-­‐liberalization	
  policy	
  under	
  the	
  past	
  two	
  
administrations.	
   Mariano	
   assured	
   that	
   the	
   DAR	
   is	
   coordinating	
   with	
   various	
  
agencies	
   to	
   ensure	
   that	
   no	
   rights,	
   whether	
   that	
   of	
   IPs	
   or	
   farmers,	
   shall	
   be	
  
trampled	
  upon.	
  Lopez	
  also	
  assured	
  that	
  no	
  agricultural	
  land	
  would	
  be	
  covered	
  by	
  
mining.	
  	
  Mariano	
  said	
  his	
  agency	
  would	
  initiate	
  an	
  interagency	
  meeting	
  between	
  
the	
  DAR,	
  DENR,	
  Department	
  of	
  Interior	
  and	
  Local	
  Government	
  and	
  the	
  National	
  
Commission	
   on	
   Indigenous	
   People	
   to	
   discuss	
   the	
   resolving	
   issues	
   involving	
  
conflicting	
  land-­‐use	
  policies.	
  
	
  
Conclusion	
  
	
  
The	
  cyclical	
  and	
  unpredictable	
  nature	
  of	
  the	
  industry	
  makes	
  any	
  effort	
  to	
  predict	
  
prices	
   based	
   on	
   current	
   prices	
   and	
   volatility,	
   a	
   difficult	
   if	
   not	
   impossible	
  
undertaking.	
  Geopolitical	
  instability	
  (petroleum),	
  increased	
  complexity	
  of	
  policy	
  
change	
  (mining,	
  petroleum),	
  uncertainty	
  over	
  regulations	
  (mining,	
  petroleum),	
  
and	
   technically	
   challenging	
   physical	
   environments	
   (geothermal)	
   have	
  
aggravated	
  existing	
  risks	
  for	
  the	
  local	
  industry.	
  It	
  is	
  highly	
  likely	
  that	
  the	
  present	
  
administration’s	
   regulation	
   of	
   the	
   industry	
   will	
   continue	
   to	
   intensify	
   and	
   the	
  
industry	
   is	
   clearly	
   apprehensive	
   by	
   the	
   way	
   the	
   government	
   approach	
   its	
  
regulatory	
   agenda.	
   Nevertheless,	
   a	
   changing	
   landscape	
   provides	
   opportunities	
  
for	
  resources	
  companies	
  willing	
  to	
  embrace	
  a	
  degree	
  of	
  risk	
  and	
  gain	
  access	
  to	
  
future	
  growth	
  areas	
  -­‐	
  technology,	
  business	
  optimization,	
  etc.	
  that	
  will	
  be	
  the	
  key	
  
to	
  unlocking	
  future	
  potential.	
  
	
  
Fernando	
  “Ronnie”	
  Penarroyo	
  is	
  the	
  Managing	
  Partner	
  of	
  Puno	
  and	
  Penarroyo	
  Law	
  
Offices	
   (www.punopenalaw.com).	
   He	
   specializes	
   in	
   Energy	
   and	
   Resources	
   Law,	
  
Project	
  Finance	
  and	
  Business	
  Development.	
  	
  	
  

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Philippine Resources Industry - Down But Not Out

  • 1. Philippine  Resources  Industry  –  Down  But  Not  Out     A  few  months  into  his  presidency,  Rodrigo  Roa  Duterte  has  already  created  an   impact  in  the  resources  industry.    The  mining  industry  experienced  the  biggest   clampdown   under   the   present   administration   when   the   Department   of   Environment  and  Natural  Resources  (“DENR”)  undertook  an  intensive  audit  of   the  operations  of  metallic  mining  companies  resulting  in  numerous  suspensions   and  notices  of  violations.    The  industry  was  not  helped  either  by  lower  demand   for   bulk   commodities   combined   with   a   bleak   global   outlook   for   mineral   production   resulting   in   a   fall   in   prices.     On   the   other   hand,   global   energy   investments  in  2015  were  also  down  due  to  a  sharp  fall  in  upstream  oil  and  gas   capital  spending.  Petroleum  markets  are  flooded  with  cheap  crude  and  natural   gas   amidst   growing   concerns   about   climate   change.   The   transition   to   a   low-­‐ carbon  energy  system  envisaged  in  the  Paris  Climate  Agreement  is  also  paving   the  way  for  a  shift  in  investments  towards  renewable  energy.       World  Resources  Update     The   forty   biggest   mining   companies   experienced   their   first-­‐ever   collective   net   loss   in   2015.   Some   analysts   hope   that   late   2015   marked   the   bottom   of   the   market,   which   was   followed   by   sporadic   rallies   in   early   2016   but   others   dismissed   these   as   interpretations   of   increased   volatility.   Mining   companies   realised   impairments   of   $53   billion   in   2015   and   have   now   written-­‐off   the   equivalent   of   32%   of   capital   expenditures   spent   since   2010   resulting   in   the   mothballing   of   marginal   projects   and   curtailing   capacity.   (PwC,   Mine   2016:   Review  of  the  Global  Trends  in  the  Mining  Industry)     On  the  energy  front,  petroleum  companies  have  largely  cut  back  on  exploration   over  the  last  two  years  in  an  effort  to  reduce  costs  as  oil  prices  fell  from  over   $100   a   barrel   to   roughly   $50   a   barrel.   While,   the   price   of   crude   has   risen   in   recent   days   after   a   recent   agreement   among   OPEC   members   to   cut   output   modestly   later   in   the   year,   industry   executives  continue   to   express   skepticism   that  individual  member  countries  will  commit  to  curtail  production.  The  silver   lining  is  that  with  the  industry  cutting  investment  in  exploration  and  production   by  $250 billion  in  2015,  and  $70  billion  more  this  year,  it  is  only  a  matter  of  time   before   demand   outstrips   supplies   and   prices   rise   again   significantly,   although   not  until  2018  to  2020  at  the  earliest.  (Clifford  Krauss,  The  New  York  Times,  08   October  2016)     The  World  Energy  Investment  2016  published  by  the  Organisation  for  Economic   Co-­‐operation  and  Development/International  Energy  Agency,  reported  that  oil,   the   largest   primary   energy   source,   slightly   increased   its   share   of   the   global   energy   mix.   Unlike   oil,   gas   demand   growth   remained   subdued   due   to   the   slowdown   of   electricity   demand   and   the   expansion   of   renewables   that   contributed  to  a  fall  in  gas-­‐fired  power  generation  investment.  In  addition,  low   petroleum   prices   led   to   cuts   in   investment   in   upstream   and   transportation   infrastructure,  with  most  major  gas  infrastructure  projects  in  East  Africa  and  the   Eurasian  region  facing  delays.      
  • 2. According   to   the   BP   Statistical   Review   of   World   Energy   (June   2016),   global   primary   energy   consumption   increased   by   just   1.0%   in   2015,   similar   to   the   below-­‐average   growth   recorded   in   2014   (+1.1%)   and   well   below   its   10-­‐year   average  of  1.9%  representing  the  lowest  global  growth  since  1998.  Renewables   in  power  generation  continued  to  grow  robustly,  to  nearly  3%  of  global  primary   energy   consumption,   while   coal   consumption   affected   by   climate   policy,   recorded  the  largest  percentage  decline  on  record  falling  by  1.8%  in  2015,  well   below  the  10-­‐year  average  annual  growth  of  2.1%.  Global  coal  production  fell  by   4%,  with  large  declines  in  the  US  (-­‐10.4%),  Indonesia  (-­‐14.4%),  and  China  (-­‐2%).   Coal’s   share   of   global   primary   energy   consumption   fell   to   29.2%,   the   lowest   share  since  2005.  Global  carbon  dioxide  emissions  from  energy  are  estimated  to   have   been   essentially   flat.   Energy   investments   are   not   yet   consistent   with   the   transition   to   a   low-­‐carbon   energy   system   forecasted   in   the   Paris   Climate   Agreement.  While  wind,  solar  PV  and  electric-­‐vehicle  investments  are  broadly  on   a  trajectory  consistent  with  limiting  the  increase  in  global  temperature  to  2°C,   investment  in  other  low-­‐carbon  technologies  is  falling  behind.  Renewable  energy   sources   in   power   generation   continued   to   increase   in   2015,   reaching   2.8%   of   global  energy  consumption,  up  from  0.8%  a  decade  ago.  Renewables  accounted   for  6.7%  of  global  power  generation.       Upheaval  in  the  Mining  Industry     Table   1   shows   the   current   operating   mines   supervised   by   the   Mines   and   Geosciences   Bureau   (“MGB”)   together   with   approve   and   subsisting   mining   tenements.     OPERATING  MINES   45  metallic  mines  in  operation   • 27  nickel  mines   • 6  gold  mines   • 3  copper  mines   • 4  chromite  mines   • 5  iron  mines   •   5  processing  plants     • 2  nickel  processing  plants  (Coral  Bay  in  Palawan  and  Taganito  HPAL  in   Surigao)   • 1  copper  processing  plant  (PASAR  in  Leyte)     • 2  gold  processing  plants  (Philippine  Gold  Processing  and  Refining   Corporation  in  Masbate  and  Mindanao  Mineral  Processing  and  Refining   Corporation  in  Agusan  del  Sur)       More  than  2000  operations  for  sand  and  gravel  and  other  non-­‐metallic  minerals   in  the  country     MINING  TENEMENTS     Major  approved/existing  mining  tenements   • Mineral  Production  Sharing  Agreement  –  339  
  • 3. • Special  Mines  Permit  -­‐  2   • Exploration  Permit  –  31   • Financial  or  Technical  Assistance  Agreement  –  6   • Mineral  Processing  Permit  –  46   • Industrial  Sand  and  Gravel  Permit  –  144   • Mining  Patents–  223     165  applications  for  Exploration  Permit  accepted  since  the  lifting  of  moratorium   in  March  2013;  12  were  approved       6  advance  projects  with  approved  DMPF   • Balabag  Gold-­‐Silver  Project  (  Zamboanga  del  Sur)   • Ipilan  Nickel  Project  (Palawan)   • Hallmark/Austral-­‐Asia  Pujada  Nickel  Projects  (Davao  Oriental)   • Kingking  Copper-­‐Gold  Project  of  NADECOR  (Compostela  Valley)   • Boyongan-­‐  Bayugo  Copper-­‐Gold  Project  of  Philex  (Surigao  del  Norte)   • Comet  Dinagat  Nickel  Project  of  Comet  Mining  (Dinagat  Islands)     4  advance  projects  with  DMPF  under  final  review   • Apoland  Limestone  Quarry  Project  (Cebu)   • Rodriguez  Quarry  Project-­‐  Montalban  Millex  (Rizal)   • Sta.  Cruz  Chromite  Project-­‐Shangfil  Mining  (Zambales)   • Tampakan  Copper  Project-­‐  (South  Cotabato)     Table  1.  Mining  Operations  and  Mining  Tenements  (MGB,  April  2016)     The  DENR  just  concluded  its  nationwide  audit  of  metallic  mine  operations  and   recommended   the   suspension   of   twenty   (20)   mining   operations   for   environmental  violations,  unsystematic  mining  methods  and  outstanding  social   issues   on   top   of   the   ten   (10)   others   including   eight   (8)   nickel   producers   that   were   earlier   suspended   for   environmental   violations.   Secretary   Regina   Paz   Lopez  announced  that  the  DENR  would  commence  a  review  of  previously  issued   environmental  compliance  certificates  (“ECC”)  and  mineral  production  sharing   agreements.   Lopez   said   the   review   would   cover   around   eight   hundred   (800)   ECCs   and   added   that   she   wants   to   put   a   moratorium   on   the   opening   of   new   mines.  Lopez  is  reportedly  going  to  do  a  similar  exercise  on  non-­‐metallic  mines   including  coalmines  and  quarries.     In   the   meantime,   the   Chamber   of   Mines   of   the   Philippines   (“COMP”)   is   now   requesting   mine   regulators   for   clear   direction   following   the   exit   of   Undersecretary   and   former   MGB   Director   Leo   Jasareno,   who   was   earlier   deputized   by   Lopez   to   head   the   mines   audit.   As   at   writing,   none   of   COMP’s   member   companies   recommended   for   suspension   has   yet   to   receive   a   show   cause  letter  asking  them  to  explain  why  their  operations  shouldn’t  be  stopped.       Industry  insiders  deplore  the  lack  of  transparency  in  the  manner  the  audits  were   conducted  noting  that  the  names  of  the  suspended  mining  companies  have  been   released  to  the  media  absent  the  detailed  reasons  for  such  suspensions.  At  least   four   miners   recommended   for   suspension   are   currently   nominated   for   the  
  • 4. annual  presidential  awards  on  good  mining  practice,  which  recognise  companies   with  exemplary  performance  in  environmental  management,  safety  and  health,   and   social   development   and   management   programs.   The   industry   also   questioned  the  oversight  and  involvement  in  the  mine  audit  of  Jasareno  who  for   the   past   six   years   supervised   many   of   the   suspended   mines   in   his   capacity   as   MGB  director.  In  addition,  the  industry  was  disturbed  with  the  inclusion  in  the   technical   audit   of   non-­‐technical   members   from   some   anti-­‐mining   civil   society   groups.       Eugenia  Victorino,  economist  at  the  Australia  and  New  Zealand  Banking  Group   Ltd.   (“ANZ   Bank”)   said   the   environmental   audit   of   the   mining   industry   could   significantly   cut   production   and   export   revenues.   While   the   ANZ   Bank   sees   limited  impact  on  growth,  the  risk  is  that  more  suspensions  in  mining  production   could   lead   to   a   further   deterioration   in   the   trade   deficit,   resulting   in   a   much   narrower  current  account  surplus  next  year.       Justino  Calaycay,  Jr.  of  A&A  Securities  said  that  the  “crackdown”  on  miners  could   have   an   impact   on   unemployment   and   consumer   spending.   By   his   analysis,   unemployment,  which  currently  stands  at  5.4%,  could  rise  to  between  5.8%  to   6.0%  while  economic  growth  could  drag  to  between  6.0%  to  6.2%  if  and  when   the  uncertainties  clouding  over  the  mining  sector’s  horizon  continues.     The  DENR  is  also  expected  to  embark  on  the  audit  of  coal-­‐fired  power  plants  to   determine   their   compliance   with   environmental   standards.     The   DENR   will   commence   the   crafting   of   audit   guidelines   and   criteria   with   focus   on   the   conditions  given  to  firms  that  obtained  ECCs.  The  ECC  review  will  include  not   only  operating  coal-­‐fired  plants,  but  also  those  undergoing  construction  and  new   applications.   First   on   Secretary   Lopez’s   list   is   Semirara   Mining   and   Power   Corporation,   the   country’s   largest   coal   mine,   which   was   earlier   directed   to   explain   why   its   ECC   for   its   Molave   expansion   plant   in   Antique   should   not   be   cancelled.     It   should   be   noted   that   Lopez’   family   have   investments   in   power   companies  generated  by  renewables,  which  may  put  her  in  a  potential  conflict  of   interest  by  reason  of  this  directive.     Needless   to   say,   suspensions   or   closures   of   existing   coal-­‐fired   power   plants,   cancelling   of   ECCs   of   plants   under   construction,   and   moratorium   on   ECC   applications   will   have   a   tremendous   impact   on   the   country’s   baseload   power   supply  and  prices,  as  coal  accounts  for  about  44%  of  the  country’s  current  total   power  mix.  Figure  1  shows  existing,  committed  and  indicative  coal-­‐fired  power   plants  while  Table  2  lists  existing  power  plants.          
  • 5.   Figure  1.  Existing,  Committed  and  Indicative  Coal-­‐fired  Power  Plants  as  at  September,   2016  (DOE)         Table  2.  List  of  Existing  Coal-­‐fired  Power  Plants  (DOE)     On  a  bright  note,  the  MGB  is  now  advancing  its  review  of  the  small-­‐scale  mining   regulatory  framework.  The  MGB  announced  that  it  will  engage  all  provincial  and   city   mining   regulatory   boards   in   a   conference   in   order   “to   thresh   out   issues   hindering  the  formalization  of  the  small-­‐scale  mining  sector  and  provide  inputs   to   enhance   the   existing   policies   toward   a   responsible   industry.”   “The   national  
  • 6. review   of   the   existing   rules   and   regulations   on   small-­‐scale   mining   aims   to   increase  the  effectiveness,  efficiency  and  transparency  of  the  governing  bodies   for  the  promotion  of  responsible  small-­‐scale  mining,”  the  MGB  said.  Large-­‐scale   miners  have  often  cited  small-­‐scale  mining  operations  as  one  of  the  main  culprits   in   environmental   violations   and   excesses   because   the   sector   has   been   weakly   regulated  which  allowed  existing  laws  and  regulations  to  be  circumvented.     Upstream  Petroleum  Still  Charting  Stormy  Waters     Unless   new   fields   are   discovered   and   developed,   petroleum   production   in   Northwest  Palawan  is  expected  to  cease  in  2027  when  the  Malampaya  reserves   are   depleted.   Other   existing   fields   are   currently   under   cyclical   production   and   nearing   depletion.   Some   service   contractors   on   the   other   hand   have   filed   for   technical  moratorium  status  as  commercial  studies  indicated  that  under  current   oil  prices,  development  of  the  discoveries  is  not  economically  feasible.           Table  3.  Current  Producing  Petroleum  Service  Contracts  (DOE,  December  2015)     The  constitutional  challenge  against  Service  Contract  No.  46  (“SC  46”)  known  as   the   Resident   Marine   Mammal   Case,   also   continues   to   hound   the   upstream   industry.    The  Supreme  Court  nullified  SC  46  on  ground  that  the  contract  was  not   personally   signed   by   the   President   in   violation   of   Section   2,   Article   XII   of   the   1987  Constitution.  The  DOE  through  the  Office  of  the  Solicitor  General  (“OSG”)   appealed  the  decision  citing  the  qualified  political  agency  principle,  which  allows   the   DOE   Secretary   to   sign   on   behalf   of   the   President   by   virtue   of   a   Special   Authority,  and  consistent  with  a  legal  opinion  given  by  the  Office  of  the  President   on  22  August  1988.       The  industry  is  also  weighed  down  by  Commission  on  Audit  Decision  No.  2015-­‐   115,   affirming   a   Notice   of   Charge   for   income   tax   deducted   from   the   national   wealth  share  of  the  Philippine  Government  and  directing  the  DOE  to  collect  P53   billion   from   the   SC   38   Consortium   (composed   of   Shell   Philippines   Exploration   B.V.   Chevron   Malampaya   LLC,   and   PNOC   Exploration   Corporation).   COA’s   Regional   Cluster   Position   is   that   Presidential   Decree   No.   87   (“PD   87”)   did   not   allow   tax   exemption   nor   tax   assumption.   This   is   under   appeal   with   the  
  • 7. Commission   by   the   DOE   through   the   OSG   citing   that   PD   87   allowed   tax   assumption.    The  SC  38  consortium  has  also  brought  the  matter  to  arbitration.     Meanwhile,   the   West   Philippine   Sea   maritime   dispute   continues   to   disrupt   petroleum   exploration   in   the   country   despite   the   Philippines   obtaining   a   favourable   ruling   from   the   Permanent   Court   of   Arbitration,   which   ruled   the   invalidity  of  China’s  Nine-­‐Dash  Line  and  that  it  violated  the  exclusive  right  of  the   Philippines   to   its   Exclusive   Economic   Zone   (“EEZ”)   by   interfering   with   the   petroleum  activities  of  Filipino  vessels  in  the  EEZ.         The   award   of   three   (3)   petroleum   service   contracts   in   the   recently   conducted   Philippine  Energy  Contracting  Round  No.  5  is  still  pending  and  dependent  on  the   resolution   of   these   issues.     The   good   news   in   the   oilpatch   is   the   development   activities   under   SC   49   being   done   by   a   HK-­‐listed   exploration   company   in   Southern  Cebu  following  its  declaration  of  commerciality.     Geothermal  Energy  on  a  Plateau     Geothermal  production  in  the  Philippines  has  seen  a  steady  decline  during  the   past  decade.    Table  4  shows  that  since  2005,  there  was  a  negative  increment  of   145  MWe  in  geothermal  plant  commissioning.     Location   Commissioned   Decommissioned   Northern  Negros     50     Tiwi  Unit  4       110   Northern  Negros     50     Tiwi  Unit  3     55     Botong     20     Maibarara   20     Nasuji     20   Nasulo     30     Bacman  1  Re-­‐engineering   10     Total   110   255   Table  4.  Development  increments  and  plant  decommissioning  since  2005  (DOE)     The  DOE  in  coordination  with  the  private  industry  realizes  that  it  can  no  longer   hope  to  discover  conventional,  “elephant-­‐sized”  geothermal  resources  as  these   have   been   fully   accessed   and   evaluated   by   the   former   state-­‐owned   energy   development  and  public  utility  companies.  There  is  now  an  urgency  to  apply  new   development  technologies  to  what  previously  were  considered  to  be  second  tier   resources  e.g.  technologies  that  can  utilize  acidic  and  young  geothermal  systems,   development   of   low   enthalpy   geothermal   systems,   direct   use   of   small-­‐scale  
  • 8. geothermal  energy  technologies  (for  example,  modular  well  head  turbines),  and   hybrid  technologies.         With   an   appropriately   structured   feed-­‐in   tariff   (“FIT”)   rate   that   will   provide   guaranteed   payment   to   investors   through   a   universal   charge,   these   acidic   and   lower  enthalpy  resources  can  be  developed  to  generate  electricity.  In  order  to   address   the   barriers   related   to   costs   and   resource   exploration   risks   faced   by   geothermal   energy   developers,   the   National   Geothermal   Association   of   the   Philippines  (“NGAP”)  calls  for  the  coverage  under  the  FIT  program  of  geothermal   emerging  technologies  currently  not  commercially  viable  under  existing  market   and  pricing  structures.  Under  the  Renewable  Energy  Act  of  2008  (“RE  Act”),  FIT  is   provided   to   solar,   wind   and   other   renewable   energy   sources   considered   “emerging  technology”,  to  the  exclusion  of  geothermal.     Some  geothermal  power  plant  projects  may  languish  because  of  the  lower  cost  of   coal-­‐fired   power   generation   but   this   can   be   addressed   by   prompt   implementation  of  the  Renewable  Portfolio  Standard  and  Green  Energy  Option   under   the   RE   Act,   which   will   incentivize   utilities   to   contract   for   geothermal   power.   On   a   bright   note,   the   DOE   is   receptive   to   the   proposal   of   including   geothermal  emerging-­‐technology  for  inclusion  in  the  FIT  system,  based  on  the   recommendation  of  the  National  Renewable  Energy  Board,  which  must  carry  out   an  extensive  study  on  the  proposal.    Following  a  series  of  public  consultations   with  RE  stakeholders,  the  Senate  Committee  on  Energy  is  looking  to  the  idea  of   amending  the  RE  Act  and  formally  requested  NGAP  to  submit  its  position  paper   on  the  proposal.     Facing  the  Constantly  Shifting  Regulatory  Headwinds     On   the   policy   front,   the   Duterte   administration   through   its   ten-­‐point   socio-­‐ economic   agenda   seeks   to   expedite   permitting   approvals,   which   hopefully   can   ease   the   bottlenecks   in   the   highly   regulated   resources   industry.   However,   expedited  regulatory  actions  and  permit  approvals  continue  to  be  on  top  of  the   wish   list   of   resource   developers.   Table   5   lists   current   petroleum   service   contracts  under  notices  of  Force  Majeure  by  operators  by  reasons  of  permitting   issues  and  regulatory  uncertainties.         Service   Contract  No.   Location   Operator   Commitment  Status     53   Mindoro   (Mindoro-­‐ Cuyo)     Pitkin  Petroleum  Ltd.   Under   Force   Majeure   due   to   issue   with   Indigenous   Peoples  in  the  area   57   N.  Calamian   (NW   Palawan)     PNOC-­‐EC   Under   Force   Majeure   due   to   a   pending   Farm-­‐In   Agreement  with  CNOOC  for  approval  by  the  President   58   W.  Calamian   (NW   Palawan)     Nido  Petroleum   Philippines  Pty.  Ltd.   Under  Force  Majeure  due  to  the  dispute  in  the  West   Philippine  Sea   72   Recto  Bank   Forum  (GSEC  101)  Ltd.   Under  Force  Majeure  due  to  the  dispute  in  the  West   Philippine  Sea  
  • 9. 75   NW  Palawan   Philex  Petroleum   Corporation   Under  Force  Majeure  due  to  the  dispute  in  the  West   Philippine  Sea   Table  5.  Petroleum  Service  Contracts  Under  Force  Majeure  (DOE)     Table  6  on  the  other  hand,  shows  geothermal  service  contracts  currently  bogged   down  by  issues  in  relation  to  claims  by  indigenous  peoples  (IPs),  opposition  from   local  government  units,  and  area  conflicts  with  national  parks.       Project  Name   Contract  No.   Location   Potential   Capacity  (MWe)   Permits  and  Clearances   Issues     Sal-­‐Lapadan-­‐Boliney-­‐ Bucloc-­‐Tubo     GSC  2011-­‐12-­‐209   Abra   TBD   IP  and  National  Park   Kalinga   GRESC  2010-­‐03-­‐24   Kalinga   60   IP  and  LGU     Cagua-­‐Baua   GRESC  2011-­‐12-­‐028   Cagayan   40   IP     Cervantes   GSC  2011-­‐12-­‐030   Ilocos  Sur/  Mt.   Provice/  Benguet     TBD   IP   East  Mankayan   GRESC  2013-­‐11-­‐041   Ifugao/  Benguet/   Mt.  Province     TBD   IP   Daklan   GRESC  2010-­‐02-­‐017   Benguet/  Nueva   Vizcaya     60   IP   Negron-­‐Cuadrado   GRESC  2013-­‐02-­‐040   Zambales/   Pampanga     TBD   IP   Puting  Lupa   GRESC  2014-­‐01-­‐349   Laguna   TBD   Protected  Area     Southern  Bicol   GRESC  2010-­‐02-­‐015   Sorsogon   40   LGU     West  Bulusan   GSC  2013-­‐11-­‐048   Sorsogon   TBD   LGU     Mandalagan   GSC  2012-­‐01-­‐036   Negros  Occidental     20   LGU   Balingasag   GSC  2012-­‐01-­‐039   Misamis  Oriental/   Bukidnon     20   LGU   Mt.  Zion   GSC  2012-­‐01-­‐037   North  Cotabato/   Davao  del  Sur     20   IP  and  National  Park   Mt.  Zion2   GSC  2012-­‐01-­‐037   North  Cotabato/   Davao  del  Sur     20   IP  and  National  Park   Mt.  Talomo/Tico   GSC  2013-­‐11-­‐046   North  Cotabato/   Davao  del  Sur     TBD   IP  and  National  Park   Mt.  Sibulan/   Kapatagan   GSC  2013-­‐11-­‐047   Davao  del  Sur   TBD   IP  and  National  Park   Table  6.  Geothermal  Exploration  Projects  with  Permitting  Issues  (DOE)     Recently,  resource  developers  have  to  contend  not  only  with  the  DENR  but  also   with  the  Department  of  Agrarian  Reform  (“DAR”),  which  seeks  to  to  declare  a   two-­‐year   moratorium   on   land   conversion   and   upholding   the   validities   of   Certificate  of  Land  Ownership  Award  (“CLOA”)  on  mineral  lands.    
  • 10. The   proposed   moratorium   will   prevent   the   conversion   of   agricultural   land   to   industrial   land,   intended   for   declaring   mineral   lands   and   building   power   facilities.   Business   and   economic   organizations   composed   of   the   Philippine   Chamber  of  Commerce  and  Industry,  the  Foundation  for  Economic  Freedom,  the   Makati   Business   Club,   the   Management   Association   of   the   Philippines,   the   Philippine  Exporters  Confederation,  the  American  Chamber  of  Commerce  of  the   Philippines,   the   European   Chamber   of   Commerce   of   the   Philippines   and   the   Japanese  Chamber  of  Commerce  of  the  Philippines,  warned  in  a  joint  statement   that  the  plan  of  the  DAR  would  be  detrimental  to  rural  development  and  creation   of  more  jobs.  The  group  noted  that  there  are  “lands  classified  as  agricultural  that   are  low-­‐yielding  and  unproductive  and  preventing  conversion  of  such  lands  to   more   productive   uses...   goes   against...   development   of   unproductive,   idle   agricultural   land   that   could   be   better-­‐used   for   commercial,   residential   and   industrial  uses.”     DAR  Secretary  Rafael  Mariano  said  he  is  also  bent  on  upholding  the  validity  of   issued  CLOAs,  even  if  it  would  affect  mining  sites.  Mariano,  a  militant  farmer  and   former  chairman  of  the  Kilusang  Magbubukid  ng  Pilipinas,  added  that  he  is  not   keen  on  canceling  the  CLOAs  issued  within  the  Tampakan  Copper-­‐Gold  Project  in   Southern  Mindanao.  Mariano  is  one  of  the  progressives  appointed  to  the  Duterte   cabinet  and  a  vocal  critic  of  the  mining-­‐liberalization  policy  under  the  past  two   administrations.   Mariano   assured   that   the   DAR   is   coordinating   with   various   agencies   to   ensure   that   no   rights,   whether   that   of   IPs   or   farmers,   shall   be   trampled  upon.  Lopez  also  assured  that  no  agricultural  land  would  be  covered  by   mining.    Mariano  said  his  agency  would  initiate  an  interagency  meeting  between   the  DAR,  DENR,  Department  of  Interior  and  Local  Government  and  the  National   Commission   on   Indigenous   People   to   discuss   the   resolving   issues   involving   conflicting  land-­‐use  policies.     Conclusion     The  cyclical  and  unpredictable  nature  of  the  industry  makes  any  effort  to  predict   prices   based   on   current   prices   and   volatility,   a   difficult   if   not   impossible   undertaking.  Geopolitical  instability  (petroleum),  increased  complexity  of  policy   change  (mining,  petroleum),  uncertainty  over  regulations  (mining,  petroleum),   and   technically   challenging   physical   environments   (geothermal)   have   aggravated  existing  risks  for  the  local  industry.  It  is  highly  likely  that  the  present   administration’s   regulation   of   the   industry   will   continue   to   intensify   and   the   industry   is   clearly   apprehensive   by   the   way   the   government   approach   its   regulatory   agenda.   Nevertheless,   a   changing   landscape   provides   opportunities   for  resources  companies  willing  to  embrace  a  degree  of  risk  and  gain  access  to   future  growth  areas  -­‐  technology,  business  optimization,  etc.  that  will  be  the  key   to  unlocking  future  potential.     Fernando  “Ronnie”  Penarroyo  is  the  Managing  Partner  of  Puno  and  Penarroyo  Law   Offices   (www.punopenalaw.com).   He   specializes   in   Energy   and   Resources   Law,   Project  Finance  and  Business  Development.