4. 1890s to 1948 – the first incarnation of the entertainment industry
From vaudeville to the Hollywood studio system
5. 1948 to 2000 – the second incarnation of the entertainment industry
Rise of “free” home entertainment with radio&tv and the fight for attention
6. 1948 to 2000 – the second incarnation of the entertainment industry
Cable and pay tv + VCRs increase home entertainment
7. Since 2000 – the third incarnation of the entertainment industry
Revenge of the geeks ?
8. Since 2000 – the third incarnation of the entertainment industry
Fragmentation is the new normal
9. The landscape: Box office and home video revenues are flat or decreasing
US Box office at $10 billion Home entertainment at $16 billion
Global b.o ix $31.8 billion
10. The landscape: Video On Demand via cable or web is increasing
2010 numbers:
Comcast $385m
Apple $280m
Time Warner Cable $160m
11. The landscape: Game-changer in Video On Demand and beyond=Netflix
20 million + subscribers
18.2 million + subscribers
17.3 million + subscribers
12. What’s next ? Netflix is the new HBO
20 million + subscribers
27 million + subscribers
Prediction #1: Netflix will overtake HBO by end of year 2011
13. What’s next: Netflix will accelerate the launch of other web-based pay tv subscription
services
Prediction #2: One of the pay tv players will offer its content via the web
by Xmas 2011
14. What’s next: Cordcutting is a reality for the tech set
Prediction #3: Increased cordcutting yields punitive bandwidth caps
15. What’s next: DVRs and time-shifting become the new normal
2007: 13.5%
2010: 35%
2011: 40%
2013: 50%
Prediction #4: Increased DVR use drastically changes Nielsen rating
system in 2011
16. What’s next: What do YOU think ?
?
Prediction #5: what’s your prediction ?
17. What this means to content producers: innovate, innovate, innovate