The document discusses the water dispute over the Disi aquifer between Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It provides background that the aquifer is non-renewable and is being pumped by both countries for their water projects. Jordan has previously accused Saudi Arabia of overpumping. The document applies the "TWINS analysis" to examine the conflict historically and analyze the relationship between the two countries. It assesses factors like political and economic issues, levels of cooperation, and different faces of power in their dynamic over the shared water source. It concludes the TWINS analysis is useful but has limitations, and is an approximative tool for comparing case studies.

1. The Disi aquifer water dispute
between Jordan and Saudi Arabia:
an application of the TWINS
analysis
Francesca Greco
London Water Research Group
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON HYDRO-HEGEMONY
Hosted by Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance, LSE
Understanding and Challenging Water and Power Asymmetry
Weekend of 31 May/1 June 2008
francescagreco78@gmail.com
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

2. THE DISI WATER :
• a shared groundwater
basin
• a non–renewable ( fossil)
water aquifer
• project works starting in 2008
• awarded through international
bid by a private company
• no international aid, no donors
• high environmental impact
• one of the largest mega-water
projects on earth ( 325 km
long pipeline)
THE DISPUTE:
• pumping race between the two
countries
• no agreement on the issue Jordan
• no formal talks about joint
actions over the aquifer
• Jordan strategy:
in the past ; accusation
of over-exploitation Saudi Arabia
today: priorWorkshop on
4th International use strategy
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

3. Trajectory of the Jordan –Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer
Low Cooperation Intensity High
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Low
Non-politicized
1
Conflict Intensity Politicized 2
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3
Violized
4
High
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

4. Trajectory of the Jordan –Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer
Low Cooperation Intensity High
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Low
Non-politicized
1 1980s: a UNDP technical mission
evaluates the aquifer
Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 1990s: First Jordanian accusations of Saudi
overexploitation
Securitized / 2002: Declaration of Disi as a “state-
Opportunitized 3
security issue”
ongoing: SILENTIZATION/time-gaining
Violized
4
High
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

5. Trajectory of the Jordan –Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer
Low Cooperation Intensity High
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Low
Non-politicized
1 1980s: a UNDP technical mission
evaluates the aquifer
Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 1990s: First Jordanian accusations of Saudi
overexploitation
Securitized / 2002: Declaration of Disi as a “state-
Opportunitized 3
security issue”
ongoing: SILENTIZATION/time-gaining
Violized
4
High
4th International Workshop on “verbal violence” and “silentization”
Rather
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

6. high
THE ECONOMIC NEXUS
Robustness of
Political Economy
Low Cooperation Intensity High
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Low
Non-politicized
1
Conflict Intensity Politicized 2
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3
Violized
4
High
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

7. 1
high high
45
65
110 medium
Robustness of
Political Economy:
130
low
Low 195
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1
Politicized 2
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3
Violized
4
RANKING OF GDP PER HEAD from the Highest ( n.1) to the Lowest: n. 195 ( 195=TOTAL n. of COUNTRIES worldwide) Source:WB 2007
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

8. 1
high high
45
Robustness of 65
Political Economy:
110 medium
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1
Politicized 2
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3
Violized
4
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

9. 1
high high
45
65
Robustness of
110 medium
Political Economy:
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1 Drivers for COOPERATION
Politicized 2
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3
Violized
4
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

10. 1
high high
45
65
Robustness of
110 medium
Political Economy:
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1 Drivers for COOPERATION
T
LIC
Politicized 2
F
ON
fC
o
Securitized /
3
rs
Opportunitized
ive
Dr
Violized
4
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

11. 1
high high
45
65
110 medium
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1 Drivers for COOPERATION
T
LIC
Politicized 2
F
ON
fC
o
Securitized /
3
rs
Opportunitized
ive
Dr
Violized
4
As mentioned before: silent conflict and non-acting upon the issue.
Time-play as strategy of conflict over a shared resource
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

12. 1
high high
45
65
Robustness of
110 medium
Political Economy:
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1
BARGAINiNG
POWER
Politicized 2
IDEATIONAL
Securitized /
Opportunitized 3 POWER
COERCIVE
POWER
Violized
4
4th International Workshop on THE
THE FACE OF POWER: non-violent coercive power
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

13. 1
high high
45
65
Robustness of
110 medium
Political Economy:
130
low
195
Low
Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking
of Issue
Non-politicized
1
T
LIC
Politicized 2
F
ON
fC
o
Securitized /
3
rs
Opportunitized
ive
Dr
COERCIVE
Violized POWER
4
Non violent conflict,
4th International Workshop on economic gap, coercive power , many drivers of conflicts.
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

14. Evaluation of the TWINS analysis:
• good for historical patterns analysis of conflicts
• useful for combinating economical and political
issues together
•Approximative for the economic part ( economic
robustness ranking is one-dimention-data
only, and this implies the utilization of a
one-dimentional indicator)
• good tool for comparing case studies
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

15. Thank you for your attention !
francescagreco78@gmail.com
4th International Workshop on
Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission