Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish Perspective
1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESSCLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESS
A SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVEA SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE
““The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere willThe climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will
last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer thanlast longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than
nuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] willnuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] will
persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”
D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years ofD. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of
Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.
““Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures withComparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with
palaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the pastpalaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past
one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”
Hansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.SHansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.S..
Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: forPoliticians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for
support, not illumination.support, not illumination.
Jack Talmadge: retired Head of NSFJack Talmadge: retired Head of NSF
2. THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEMTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM
atmosphereatmosphere
biospherebiosphere anthrosphereanthrosphere
lithospherelithosphere cryospherecryosphere
PlatePlate
tectonicstectonics
Earth’sEarth’s
orbitorbit
SolarSolar
Radiation andRadiation and
Magnetic FieldsMagnetic Fields
Changes inChanges in
atmosphereatmosphere
Changes inChanges in
cryospherecryosphere
Changes inChanges in
biospherebiosphere
Changes inChanges in
hydrospherehydrosphere
Changes inChanges in
lithospherelithosphere
ExternalExternal
forcingforcing
InternalInternal
interactionsinteractions
InternalInternal
responsesresponses
hydrospherehydrosphere
Changes inChanges in
anthrosphereanthrosphere
3. Professor John TyndallProfessor John Tyndall
1820-18931820-1893
Tyndall proved in 1859 thatTyndall proved in 1859 that
the Earth’s atmosphere has athe Earth’s atmosphere has a
greenhouse effectgreenhouse effect
150 YEARS OF RESEARCH INTO GREENHOUSE GASES150 YEARS OF RESEARCH INTO GREENHOUSE GASES
4. Prof.William RuddimanProf.William Ruddiman
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia
(author of(author of
Earth’s Climate:Earth’s Climate:
Past and Future)Past and Future)
Evidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouseEvidence that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases first altered the natural balance of thegases first altered the natural balance of the
atmosphere with the introduction of systematicatmosphere with the introduction of systematic
farming involving deforestation (~8000 years ago)farming involving deforestation (~8000 years ago)
and rice planting (~5000 years ago)and rice planting (~5000 years ago)
See T. F. Stocker et al: 2009 Nature 461 507-511 forSee T. F. Stocker et al: 2009 Nature 461 507-511 for
constraints on Holocene carbonconstraints on Holocene carbon
cyclecycle
See J Pongratz et al: 2009 Global Biogeochem. Cycles,See J Pongratz et al: 2009 Global Biogeochem. Cycles,
10, 1029, for evidence of pre-industrial anthropodenic10, 1029, for evidence of pre-industrial anthropodenic
COCO22
emissionsemissions
5. PAST CLIMATES RECONSTRUCTION FROM OXYGEN-ISOTOPEPAST CLIMATES RECONSTRUCTION FROM OXYGEN-ISOTOPE
ANALYSIS OF DEEP SEA AND POLAR ICE CORES.ANALYSIS OF DEEP SEA AND POLAR ICE CORES.
15. • Temperatures are risingTemperatures are rising
• Sea levels are risingSea levels are rising
• Snowfall is decreasingSnowfall is decreasing
Known Global ImpactsKnown Global Impacts
17. Oceanic Acidification and LossOceanic Acidification and Loss
of Coral Reefsof Coral Reefs
Global ImpactsGlobal Impacts
Crop Yield ReductionsCrop Yield Reductions
Increased Risk of WildfiresIncreased Risk of Wildfires
19. All Scotland
10
100
1000
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Index(1979=100)LogScale
All species (21)
Specialists (7)
Generalists (14)
Generalists increasing - due to climate changeGeneralists increasing - due to climate change
Specialists decreasing – due to habitat lossSpecialists decreasing – due to habitat loss
ScotlandScotland
Data courtesy Scottish Natural HeritageData courtesy Scottish Natural Heritage
21. DO SUNSPOTS CAUSE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?DO SUNSPOTS CAUSE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
““By projecting surface temperature data (1959–2004)By projecting surface temperature data (1959–2004)
onto the spatial structure obtained objectively from theonto the spatial structure obtained objectively from the
composite mean difference between solar max andcomposite mean difference between solar max and
solar min years, we obtain a global warming signal ofsolar min years, we obtain a global warming signal of
almost 0.2almost 0.2oo
C attributable to the 11-year solar cycle.”C attributable to the 11-year solar cycle.”
““Sunspot cycles correspondSunspot cycles correspond
with surface temperaturewith surface temperature
cycles, but can explain onlycycles, but can explain only
about 20% of theabout 20% of the
variation.”variation.”
Prof. Ka-Kit TungProf. Ka-Kit Tung
Washington U.Washington U.
Charles D. Camp and Ka Kit Tung, “Surface warming by the solar cycleCharles D. Camp and Ka Kit Tung, “Surface warming by the solar cycle
as revealed by the composite mean difference projection,”as revealed by the composite mean difference projection,”
Geophysical Research LettersGeophysical Research Letters, 2007, 2007
22. GREENHOUSE GASES DOGREENHOUSE GASES DO
AFFECT GLOBAL CLIMATEAFFECT GLOBAL CLIMATE
““Cloud condensation nucleiCloud condensation nuclei
concentrations aren’t veryconcentrations aren’t very
sensitive to changes in galacticsensitive to changes in galactic
cosmic ray abundance.”cosmic ray abundance.”
Pierce, J.R. , Adams P.J. , 2009Pierce, J.R. , Adams P.J. , 2009
J.Geophy. Res. Lett. 10 1029J.Geophy. Res. Lett. 10 1029
ARE GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS IMPORTANT?ARE GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS IMPORTANT?
23. Prof. James E. HansenProf. James E. Hansen
Head of NASAHead of NASA
Goddard InstituteGoddard Institute
forfor
Space StudiesSpace Studies
Hansen has issued strong warningsHansen has issued strong warnings
about how low-lying coastal areasabout how low-lying coastal areas
such as Florida (seen here), Eastsuch as Florida (seen here), East
Anglia, the Netherlands, low oceanicAnglia, the Netherlands, low oceanic
islands and Bangladesh areislands and Bangladesh are
vulnerable to rising sea levels .vulnerable to rising sea levels .
VenusVenus
24. MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGEMODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE
““A large part of the warming must to be attributed to humanA large part of the warming must to be attributed to human
activities.”activities.”
UKCIP02-2006UKCIP02-2006
““There is no credible evidence that cosmic rays play a significantThere is no credible evidence that cosmic rays play a significant
role in global climate change.”role in global climate change.”
Alan Thorpe: Chief Executive UK Natural Environment Research CouncilAlan Thorpe: Chief Executive UK Natural Environment Research Council
““Climate Models are probably the most complex in all ofClimate Models are probably the most complex in all of
science and have already proved their worth with startlingscience and have already proved their worth with startling
success in simulating the past climate of the Earth.”success in simulating the past climate of the Earth.”
J. Scaife et. al., Physics World Feb 2007J. Scaife et. al., Physics World Feb 2007
"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the
2050s than next year."2050s than next year."
Vicky Pope, UK Met Office,Vicky Pope, UK Met Office,
WMO Conference, 2009WMO Conference, 2009
25. THE BASIC GLOBALTHE BASIC GLOBAL
CLIMATE COMPUTER MODELCLIMATE COMPUTER MODEL
Global CO2 levels from 1960-2100 for different emissionGlobal CO2 levels from 1960-2100 for different emission
scenariosscenarios
26. 2.0
US CHINA EU
1.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
0.5
FSU INDIA AFRICA
+39%
+118%
+19%
+42%
+70%
+80%
PROJECTED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2025PROJECTED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2025
2000 Emissions2000 Emissions
2025 Projected2025 Projected
EmissionsEmissions
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
World Developed
nations
Developing
nations
+57%
+35%
+84%
BillionsoftonnesofcarbonequivalentBillionsoftonnesofcarbonequivalent
J.Tollefson, 2009, Nature 460, 158-159J.Tollefson, 2009, Nature 460, 158-159
27.
28. NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IPCC CLIMATE FORECAST MODELSNOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IPCC CLIMATE FORECAST MODELS
Substantial slowing or collapse ofSubstantial slowing or collapse of
ocean circulation that transportsocean circulation that transports
heat to North Atlanticheat to North Atlantic
Crucial positive feedback mechanisms suchCrucial positive feedback mechanisms such
as tundra or ocean-bed methane releaseas tundra or ocean-bed methane release
Effect of ice loss from polar regionsEffect of ice loss from polar regions
29. THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM : TIPPING POINTSTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM : TIPPING POINTS
Average TemperatureAverage Temperature
ChangeChange oo
CC
Action NeededAction Needed CO2 TargetCO2 Target
0.5 - 1.00.5 - 1.0 Already reached and unavoidableAlready reached and unavoidable 350 ppm350 ppm
Tipping point for ice-albedo feedbackTipping point for ice-albedo feedback
Approaching tipping points for oceanic CO2 saturation and dangerous acidificationApproaching tipping points for oceanic CO2 saturation and dangerous acidification
1.1 - 2.01.1 - 2.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2015:Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2015:
unavoidableunavoidable
400 ppm400 ppm
Tipping point for carbon cycle feedback (release of carbon currently sequestered in soils and oceans)Tipping point for carbon cycle feedback (release of carbon currently sequestered in soils and oceans)
2.1 - 3.02.1 - 3.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2030Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2030 450 ppm450 ppm
Tipping point for Siberian methane feedback/oceanic methane clathrate releaseTipping point for Siberian methane feedback/oceanic methane clathrate release
3.1 - 4.03.1 - 4.0 Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2050Peak global emissions of CO2 by 2050 550 ppm550 ppm
Severe stressing of global economic and agricultural systemsSevere stressing of global economic and agricultural systems
4.1 - 5.04.1 - 5.0 Allow constantly rising emissionsAllow constantly rising emissions > 650 ppm> 650 ppm
Potential for mass extinctions/collapse of global economic and agricultural systemsPotential for mass extinctions/collapse of global economic and agricultural systems
30. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Risks to
unique and
threatened
systems
Risks of
extreme
weather
events
Distribution
of impacts
Aggregate
economic
impacts
Risks
of
large scale
discontinuities
Risks
to
some
Risks
to
many
Increase
Large
increase
Negative
for most
regions
Negative
for some
regions,
positive
for others
Positive
or
negative
market
impacts:
majority of
people
adversely
affected Low
HighNegative
in all
markets
past
future
B1B1
(x2)(x2)
A1F1A1F1
(x3)(x3)
Increaseinglobalmeantemperaturesabovepre-
industriallevels(o
C)
NOWNOW
Smith J.B et al, 2009, P.N.A.S. 106, 4133-4137 (Nature 2009 458 1104-1105)Smith J.B et al, 2009, P.N.A.S. 106, 4133-4137 (Nature 2009 458 1104-1105)
31. THE 3THE 3 oo
C WORLDC WORLD Last experienced ~ 3million years agoLast experienced ~ 3million years ago
AN ICE FREE ARCTIC?AN ICE FREE ARCTIC?
19921992 20022002 20062006
32. There is a marked 30 year decline in Arctic summertime ice extentThere is a marked 30 year decline in Arctic summertime ice extent
Satellite Imagery from Cryosphere Today WebsiteSatellite Imagery from Cryosphere Today Website
33.
34. Pine Island Glacier: West AntarcticaPine Island Glacier: West Antarctica
“…“….the rate of thinning of the Pine Island.the rate of thinning of the Pine Island
Glacier quadrupled from 1995 to 2006.”Glacier quadrupled from 1995 to 2006.”
D. Wingham et.al., 2009, Geophys.Res.Lett. 36,D. Wingham et.al., 2009, Geophys.Res.Lett. 36,
L17501L17501
If the current rate of acceleration continues, theIf the current rate of acceleration continues, the
main trunk of the glacier will be afloat within 100main trunk of the glacier will be afloat within 100
years.years.
35. INCREASING RELEASE OF POLAR ICEINCREASING RELEASE OF POLAR ICE
Journal of Glaciology, 2009 Vol55, 573Journal of Glaciology, 2009 Vol55, 573
““While the growth of great ice sheetsWhile the growth of great ice sheets
takes millenia, the disintegration of icetakes millenia, the disintegration of ice
sheets is a wet process that can proceedsheets is a wet process that can proceed
rapidly.”rapidly.”
J. E. Hansen, (2009), NASAJ. E. Hansen, (2009), NASA
Goddard Institute of Space StudiesGoddard Institute of Space Studies
36. Ancient reefs in Mexico suggest that sea levels roseAncient reefs in Mexico suggest that sea levels rose
3 metres in less than 100 years during last interglacial3 metres in less than 100 years during last interglacial
39. DEATH OF CORALDEATH OF CORAL
REEFSREEFS
OCEAN ACIDIFICATIONOCEAN ACIDIFICATION
PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMPELAGIC ECOSYSTEM
COLLAPSECOLLAPSE
40. Karakoram/ Himalayan /TibetanKarakoram/ Himalayan /Tibetan
drainage provides fresh water fordrainage provides fresh water for
1/4 of the world’s population:1/4 of the world’s population:
already at risk because ofalready at risk because of
reduced winter snowreduced winter snow
accumulation and net loss ofaccumulation and net loss of
glacial ice.glacial ice.
Some South AmericanSome South American
countries are totally reliant oncountries are totally reliant on
seasonal melt from Andes forseasonal melt from Andes for
their water: already at serioustheir water: already at serious
risk because of reduced snowrisk because of reduced snow
accumulation in winter andaccumulation in winter and
loss of glacial ice.loss of glacial ice.
41. High Emission ScenarioHigh Emission Scenario
by 2080by 2080
Mean TemperatureMean Temperature
Change: AnnualChange: Annual
High Emission ScenarioHigh Emission Scenario
by 2080by 2080
Mean PrecipitationMean Precipitation
Change: SummerChange: Summer
Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09 Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09
42. Source: UKCIP09Source: UKCIP09
High Emission ScenarioHigh Emission Scenario
by 2080by 2080
Mean PrecipitationMean Precipitation
Change: WinterChange: Winter
43. PLAN 0PLAN 0 do nothingdo nothing
problem too big: unsolvableproblem too big: unsolvable
problem too small: nothing to solveproblem too small: nothing to solve
PLAN APLAN A 22 oo
C limit ?C limit ?
trillion tonne aggregate limit ?trillion tonne aggregate limit ?
550…450…350 ppm limit ?550…450…350 ppm limit ?
PLAN BPLAN B
COCO22
emissionsemissions
reductionreduction
MitigationMitigation
strategiesstrategies
Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage
Geo-engineeringGeo-engineering
eg: Solar radiation reductioneg: Solar radiation reduction
PLAN CPLAN C voluntary reduction in personal carbon footprintvoluntary reduction in personal carbon footprint
Top-downTop-downBottom-upBottom-up
WHAT’S TO BE DONE?WHAT’S TO BE DONE?
44. 1997 KYOTO EMISSIONS PLEDGES ARE FALLING SHORT1997 KYOTO EMISSIONS PLEDGES ARE FALLING SHORT
PLEDGES: 10% -- 24% below 1990 by 2020PLEDGES: 10% -- 24% below 1990 by 2020 REQUIRED BY IPCC: 25% -- 40%REQUIRED BY IPCC: 25% -- 40%
G8 target: 80% -- 90% of 1990 levels by 2050. No G8 target for 2020.G8 target: 80% -- 90% of 1990 levels by 2050. No G8 target for 2020.
45. CUMULATIVE COCUMULATIVE CO22 EMISSIONS 1750-2006EMISSIONS 1750-2006
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre, Oak Ridge National LaboratorySource: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
PLAN APLAN A
8%
6%
28%
2%
3%
7%
3%
4%
8%
18%
13%
RussiaRussia
UKUK
USAUSA
ShippingShipping
Canada &Canada &
AustraliaAustralia
GermanyGermanyJapanJapan
IndiaIndia
ChinaChina
Rest ofRest of
EuropeEurope
RestRest
of Worldof World
b)b) failed policy of “Cap and Trade” (eg European Union Emissions Tradingfailed policy of “Cap and Trade” (eg European Union Emissions Trading
System). Replace with “DUCT” (Direct Universal Carbon Tax)?System). Replace with “DUCT” (Direct Universal Carbon Tax)?
New Scientist 2009 September 12, pg 35New Scientist 2009 September 12, pg 35
c)c) Adopt an “OAR” Strategy (Overshoot, Adapt and Recover)?Adopt an “OAR” Strategy (Overshoot, Adapt and Recover)?
Parry M. et. al. , 2009 Nature, Vol 458, 1102-1103Parry M. et. al. , 2009 Nature, Vol 458, 1102-1103
a)a) Which Line in the sand? 2Which Line in the sand? 2oo
C ? 450 ppm ? “Trillion-tonne limit”?C ? 450 ppm ? “Trillion-tonne limit”?
Nature 2009 1158-1166Nature 2009 1158-1166
The Principle of Common Differentiated ResponsibilityThe Principle of Common Differentiated Responsibility
46. 20032003 20082008
USAUSA 9,1499,149 25,23725,237
GermanyGermany 18,41518,415 23,93323,933
SpainSpain 10,02810,028 16,54316,543
ChinaChina 1,2601,260 12,12112,121
IndiaIndia 4,4304,430 9,6559,655
ItalyItaly 1,7181,718 3,7363,736
FranceFrance 757757 3,4043,404
UKUK 1,3321,332 3,2883,288
DenmarkDenmark 3,1363,136 3,1603,160
World TotalWorld Total 59,09159,091 121,188121,188
WIND POWER CAPACITY 2008WIND POWER CAPACITY 2008
/MW/MW
PROJECTED GROWTH:PROJECTED GROWTH:
160GW BY 2010160GW BY 2010
Electricity generatedElectricity generated
worldwide in 2006:worldwide in 2006:
19,015 Terawatt-hours19,015 Terawatt-hours
Non-renewableNon-renewable 81.51 %81.51 %
HydroHydro 16.41 %16.41 %
WindWind 0.68 %0.68 %
SolarSolar 0.02 %0.02 %
Other RenewableOther Renewable 1.37 %1.37 %
Electricity that could be generatedElectricity that could be generated
worldwide from renewableworldwide from renewable
sources : 975,010 TWhrsources : 975,010 TWhr
Source:Source:
World Energy StatisticsWorld Energy Statistics
and Balancesand Balances
OECD/IEAOECD/IEA
PLAN APLAN A
49. PLAN C: <9.8 TONNES PER PERSON PER ANNUMPLAN C: <9.8 TONNES PER PERSON PER ANNUM
SUMMARY TABLE OF SAVINGSSUMMARY TABLE OF SAVINGS
FOR A UK CITIZENFOR A UK CITIZEN
COCO22 emissions saving peremissions saving per
person per annum / tonnesperson per annum / tonnes
Home InsulationHome Insulation 0.800.80
Purchase green electricity*Purchase green electricity* 0.800.80
Unplug appliances on standbyUnplug appliances on standby 0.040.04
Buy a wood-burning stove withBuy a wood-burning stove with
back boilerback boiler
0.900.90
Swap PC for laptopSwap PC for laptop 0.200.20
Buy organic productsBuy organic products 0.800.80
Control use of washing machineControl use of washing machine
and scrap tumble drierand scrap tumble drier
0.250.25
Buy local non-processed non-Buy local non-processed non-
packaged foodpackaged food
0.700.70
Use energy efficient light bulbsUse energy efficient light bulbs 0.250.25
Lower household thermostat byLower household thermostat by
22oo
C in winterC in winter
0.400.40
Stop flyingStop flying 1.601.60
Change car to hybrid / electricChange car to hybrid / electric 1.001.00
TOTALTOTAL 7.747.74
50. ““The wild places are where we began. When they end, so do we.”The wild places are where we began. When they end, so do we.”
David BrowerDavid Brower
(Founder: Friends of the Earth)(Founder: Friends of the Earth)
“…“…how we might reconnect public policy with rigorous science, bringhow we might reconnect public policy with rigorous science, bring
our economy into alignment with ecological realities, and begin toour economy into alignment with ecological realities, and begin to
regard ourselves as planetary trustees for future generations…”regard ourselves as planetary trustees for future generations…”
D.W. Orr, 2009, Confronting Climate Collapse, OUPD.W. Orr, 2009, Confronting Climate Collapse, OUP
“…“…significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same levelsignificant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level
of thinking we were at when we created them.”of thinking we were at when we created them.”
attributed to A. Einstein by A. Calaprice, 2005,attributed to A. Einstein by A. Calaprice, 2005,
The New Quotable Einstein, P.U.P.The New Quotable Einstein, P.U.P.
![CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESSCLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDERNESS
A SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVEA SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE
““The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere willThe climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere will
last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer thanlast longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than
nuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] willnuclear waste, far longer than the age of civilization so far…[it] will
persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”persist for hundreds of thousands of years into the future.”
D. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years ofD. Archer, 2009, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of
Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.Earth’s Climate, P.U.P.
““Comparison of modern global sea surface temperatures withComparison of modern global sea surface temperatures with
palaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the pastpalaeoclimate data suggests the planet is at its warmest in the past
one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”one million years…and this constitutes dangerous climate change. ”
Hansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.SHansen J.E. et. al., 2006 P.N.A.S..
Politicians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: forPoliticians use science the way a drunk uses a lamp-post: for
support, not illumination.support, not illumination.
Jack Talmadge: retired Head of NSFJack Talmadge: retired Head of NSF](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/martinbaker-101122103535-phpapp01/85/Climate-Change-and-Wilderness-A-Scottish-Perspective-1-320.jpg)
