13. Four elements
• Function
– Primary
– Side of box
– performance
• Probability
– % surviving
– Chance of surviving
– No distribution
• Environment
– Weather
– Stresses
– Use profiles
• Duration
– Early Life
– Warranty period
– Useful Life
31. Typical early life failures
Product does not meet
design specifications
Material or component
characterization
Process characterization
Assembly characterization
Process control – focus on what’s
32. Prediction of ELFs
Not commonly possibly for unknown variation
Design in some margin
Derating
Safety factor
Determine margin
If variation is know, determine probability of
failures – still difficult to know when though.
33. Hit by a big hammer
Some stress is too large to accommodate
Lightening
Vehicle accident
Meteor strike
Hurricane
Possibly foreseen or expected, and not
economical to design the ability to withstand
34. Prediction of overstress
Not commonly possibly
Design errors
Environment
Unexpected use
When significant adverse consequence may
occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches
35. Wear out and related
Everything fails –
eventually
Understand failure
mechanisms and
environment
It is a race to cause
the failure
36. Call Centers
First contact with failure
What do you collect?
that is actionable?
What is the main focus?
38. Return on Investment
• Cost or Investment
What do you spend to
accomplish the task?
• Return or Benefit
What you realize as a
result?
Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI
39. Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
Switch?
What else to consider?
40. Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
$0.05 FET has MTBF of
50,000 hours
$0.10 FET has MTBF of
75,000 hours
1000 hours of operation
Shipping 1000 units
Cost to repair unit $250
41. Total Cost of $0.10 FET
#Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units =
13.25
Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250
Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 =
$3350
987.01000 000,75
1000
10.0 eR
Woman with clock – what have you done for me lately?Reviews, team goals, organziation or product performance,
Man in front of bankWhat is your value? – in other words show me the money.
Dog on the beachWhat are we managing – the immediate problem or product?
Forddearborn plant – or are we running the entire company?By Detroit Publishing Co. [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Add circling arrows – with goals and feedbackAre we there yet?
Man looking puzzled at screenReliability goals – 5 years? Long life? Some other metric?Maybe do a poll here or ask for input to chat window. What do you use for
No MTBF banner and link to that pageOr noMTBF coffee mug image
Picture of Reliable moversHow do those around you think of reliability?
Picture of germanshepard
Four colored boxes? Four elements of reliability definition
Image of coffee potEnglish: The inside of a en:Senseo coffee pod machine.1) Inlet from reservoir, with sieve 2) Piston pump 3) Connection from pump to heating chamber 4) Electric connector for boiling device/heating chamber 5) Heating chamber 6) Three-port valve (most frequent failure point) 7) Air vent/overpressure relief into reservoir 8) Pipe towards scalding chamber (pod holder) 9) Reed switch for minimum level control of reservoirThe electronics component, based on a PIC microcontroller, is situated below the cup stand.Deutsch:InnenansichteinerSenseo-Kaffeepad-Maschine.1) Zulaufvom Tank mitSieb 2) Kolbenpumpe 3) VerbindungPumpe - Sieder/Erhitzungskammer 4) HeizungsanschlussSieder/Erhitzungskammer 5) Sieder/Erhitzungskammer 6) Dreiwegeventil (und Hauptausfallursache der Maschinen) 7) Entlüftung/Überdruckausgang in den Tank 8) LeitungzurBrühkammer (Padhalter) 9) ReedschalterfürMindeststandskontrolleWassertankDie Elektronik auf Basis eines PIC-Microcontrollers befindetsichunterhalb der Tassenfläche. Date 14 January 2011 Source Own work Author Cschirp Permission(Reusing this file) This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Germany license. You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).share alike – If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one.
Image of coffee potDuring the lull in the Battle for Henderson Field, October, 1942, a Marine machine gunner takes a break for coffee, with his sub-machine gun on his knee and his .30-caliber light machine gun in position.Department of Defense (USMC) Photo 13628 http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/USMC-C-Guadalcanal/index.htmlLicensing:[edit]This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.Note: This only applies to original works of the Federal Government and not to the work of any individual U.S. state, territory, commonwealth, county, municipality, or any other subdivision. This template also does not apply to postage stamp designs published by the United States Postal Service since 1978. (See 206.02(b) of Compendium II: Copyright Office Practices). It also does not apply to certain US coins; see The US Mint Terms of Use.This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights.
Image of coffee potEnglish: Hand-pull espresso machine, Vashon Island Coffee Roasterie, Vashon Island, Washington. Date 9 March 2013 Source Photo by Joe Mabel Author Joe Mabel Permission(Reusing this file) Joe Mabel, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publishes it under the following license: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. Attribution: Joe Mabel You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).share alike – If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one.
Image of coffee pot Deutsch: Deutschland, Bonn, PoppelsdorferAllee/Am PoppelsdorferWeiher: Kaffeerad -> EinLastendreirad, versehenmiteinemprofessionellen WEGA-Kaffeevollautomaten.English: Germany, Bonn, PoppelsdorferAllee/Am PoppelsdorferWeiher: Kaffeerad ("coffee bike") -> A three-wheeler, equipped with a professional WEGA-coffee machine Date 15 March 2012 Source Own work Author Sir James Permission(Reusing this file) If you use one of my works outside of the Wikimedia projects, I would be very glad to get a note from you. Thanks in advance.Sir James (author/photographer)Deutsch | English | Español | Français | Italiano | Македонски | Português | Romaneste | Српски / Srpski Other versions Object location 50° 43′ 34.40″ N, 7° 5′ 38.15″ E View this and other nearby images on: Google Maps - Google Earth - OpenStreetMap - Proximityrama (Info) I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license. You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
Picture of up of coffee with steam coming upBrew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.
ApportionmentStory of all groups in design team using system goal and achieving that goal for their subsystem.59% reliability if each of five systems achieve goal of 90% R. 0.9 ^ 5 = 0.59
Basic org chart view of RBD – simple series system
Same basic RBD with numbers and math worked out below
Image of IC chip circuit element – how far down to go with apportionment?What is the right level? – ask audience for input.Maybe a poll – subsystem, key components, entire bom, atomic level?
How to get started? Basic RBD again – with computer elements listed
Same RBD with goals in straight line estimate approachKeyboard guy is happy, power supply guy is not? Why?What raised to 5th power equals 0.95? 0.99So, what can be done? What directions should this team take?
Image of balance scalesInclude all four elements of goalInclude details to vendors – and hold them to it.For each sub systems, etc.
Feedback Mechanisms Story of group with no feedback what so everImage of three monkeys?
Image of man listening to phone
Shorter feedback is betterImage of product development cycle – and feedback pointsFocus on key decision points
Shorter feedback is betterImage of product development cycle – and feedback pointsFocus on key decision points
FRACAS – team with 6 fracas systems, team with overbearing Quality group – shawdow system, team with reward to most bugs checked off – etc.Español: "Teléfono de cordel".Ilustracionespertenecientes al libro :El mundo físico : gravedad, gravitación, luz, calor, electricidad, magnetismo, etc. / A. Guillemin. - Barcelona Montaner y Simón, 1882 Date 21 October 2009, 11:27 Source 1004158Uploaded by clusternote AuthorBiblioteca de la Facultad de Derecho y Ciencias del Trabajo Universidad de Sevilla
Rolling stones t shirt – new employee and separating circuit boards by hand
Old diesel train buffer’s between cars
Story of one organization with 31 failure mechanisms and model used for decision making
Field data considerationsWhat do you need so it is actionable? What do most call centers and field service folks focus on?
Man in front of bankWhat is your value? – in other words show me the money.Introduction to value
Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Image of dude asking question
Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Get reliability and cost per failure informationImage of dude asking talking on phone
Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Show calculation – and should go to more expensive FETImage of dude asking talking on happy
Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Show calculation – and should go to more expensive FETImage of dude asking talking on happy
Rainbow and pot of gold – imageHow else can we find value?Description English: A rainbow taken in the early morning on Border Drive, Currumbin Waters, Gold Coast Australia Date30 May 2013, 07:46:01 Source OwnworkAuthor Nikko73 Licensing[edit]I, thecopyrightholder of thiswork, herebypublish it underthefollowinglicense:This file is licensedundertheCreative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. You are free:toshare – tocopy, distributeandtransmittheworktoremix – toadapttheworkUnder thefollowingconditions:attribution – Youmustattributethework in themannerspecifiedbytheauthororlicensor (but not in anywaythatsuggeststhattheyendorseyouoryouruse of thework).sharealike – Ifyoualter, transform, orbuilduponthiswork, youmaydistributetheresultingworkonlyunderthesameorsimilarlicensetothisone.
Portion of checklist on how to find value.Along with link to download.
Man in front of bankWrap up – value of this talk?What did you learn and what are you going to do different?What is your value? – in other words show me the money.
SummaryImage of coffee potworld's largest coffee pot, Selb (Bavaria) Date March 2005 Source fotographed by Stern Author Stern