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Establishing Effective ORT      Requirements  Fred Schenkelberg, Consultant   Monday, January 23rd, 2012     RAMS 2012 Jan...
The best post production testing         is the testing that                  does not have to occur.
Material & process changes, and transit damage occurs  along the entire supply chain
VariationHappensFind it beforethe customer does
Cost EffectiveTimelyDetect FailuresAccurateSensitive
Current practice3 samplesLight stressLimited duration
Failures are badLack of detectionInaccurateInsensitiveineffective
Consider each day’s production goes somewhere.
Cost of Failures vs. Time to Detect by Failure Rate Percent                4000000                3500000                 ...
An ExampleSupposeCoating to avoid rust-new process-small window-THB for 12 days    = 1 year use
Success Run Sample Size                    10000                     1000Number of Samples                      100       ...
50 SampleCapacityDetects:4.5% in 12 daysOr1.2% in 24 days
Wrap upDo the mathFit within constraintsMeet budgetProvide protectionQuestions?
Establishing effective ort requirements
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Establishing effective ort requirements

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Paper presented at 2012 RAMS about considerations and decisions related to the design of an ongoing reliability test

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Establishing effective ort requirements

  1. 1. Establishing Effective ORT Requirements Fred Schenkelberg, Consultant Monday, January 23rd, 2012 RAMS 2012 Jan 23 to 26 Session 1D
  2. 2. The best post production testing is the testing that does not have to occur.
  3. 3. Material & process changes, and transit damage occurs along the entire supply chain
  4. 4. VariationHappensFind it beforethe customer does
  5. 5. Cost EffectiveTimelyDetect FailuresAccurateSensitive
  6. 6. Current practice3 samplesLight stressLimited duration
  7. 7. Failures are badLack of detectionInaccurateInsensitiveineffective
  8. 8. Consider each day’s production goes somewhere.
  9. 9. Cost of Failures vs. Time to Detect by Failure Rate Percent 4000000 3500000 Production 18k per day @ $25/unit Distribution Center 250k units @ $30/unit 3000000 Retailers 500k units @$50/unit Customers 1m units @ $100/unit 2500000Cost, dollars 1% 2000000 2% 3% 4% 1500000 5% 1000000 500000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time, days
  10. 10. An ExampleSupposeCoating to avoid rust-new process-small window-THB for 12 days = 1 year use
  11. 11. Success Run Sample Size 10000 1000Number of Samples 100 Confidence 10 60% 80% 90% 1 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 Reliability
  12. 12. 50 SampleCapacityDetects:4.5% in 12 daysOr1.2% in 24 days
  13. 13. Wrap upDo the mathFit within constraintsMeet budgetProvide protectionQuestions?

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