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ALT
Approaches
Fred Schenkelberg
How long will it
last?Estimating reliability performance
Customer Expectations
Financial
Planning
Making
Decisions
Do you need
to know life
time
distributions?
ALT
How to cheat time?
Time
Compression
Build a Model
Given a Model
Peck’s
Relationship
Step Stress
Degradation
Best if you Know the Failure
Mechanism(s)
time
CumulativeProbabilityofFailure
Do you have
models for top
failure
mechanisms?
Selection Criteria
How to select the right approach?
Selection
Criteria
Meaningful Results
Selection
Criteria
Meaningful Results
Measures
Threshold
Unrelated
Surrogate
Direct
Meaningful Results:
Measures
Meaningful Results
Measures
Cost
Selection
Criteria
Threshold
Prohibitive
Budget
Inexpensive
Cost
Meaningful Results
Measures
Cost
Precision
Duration
Samples
Selection
Criteria
What criteria
do you use?
An Example
Which approach would you use?
Example
Case
Capacitor
24/7 operation
High voltage load
Outdoor
environment
Insulation
breakdown failure
mechanism
Let’s consider some
ALT options
Discussion Points
Criteria
• Duration
• Precision
• Measures
• Cost
• Realistic
• Samples
ALT Approaches
• Time Compression
• Build a Model
• Assume a Model
• Step Stress
• Degradation
Who should
be involved
selecting the
approach?
Create Meaningful Tests
1. Recognize the risks
1. Identify select tests
1. Estimate Value
1. Determine Conditions
1. Document Success
Reliability Value
• Join Accendo
Reliability
• Download a copy
directly
What are your
Questions?
Thanks for participating.

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