Big Data in Communication: Analysing Why The Vaccination Campaign Failed

The research about
how the coronavirus pandemic
was communicated
in Romania and the E.U.
from December 2019 to May 2021
a new communication audit by
Fugașin & partners
How Big data and Science
can be used in communication
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This material is compiled from public information. The purpose is informative, non-commercial, without intending to cause any commercial, image, property or other damage to the analyzed parties. This material may be presented
to the public, reproduced, multiplied and/or disseminated in whole or in part in digital and/or printed form only by indicating the source as follows:
”link bit.ly/StudiiFugasinPartenerii ”. All reproduced logos, texts, images or information belong by right to the mentioned sources. Additional details at hello@fugasin.ro.
CONTENT
page 1 #1. SUMMARY
page 2 #2. how did the Romanians’ interest in the pandemic evolve?
page 3 #3. NEWS AMOUNT AROUND THE WORLD?
page 4 #4. DIFFERENT INTERESTS IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF PANDEMIC-RELATED NEWS?
page 5 #5. IS THERE ANY POLITICAL CONNECTION?
page 6 #6. what about 2019 and 2020?
page 7 #7. europe and the vaccine?
page 8 #8. what about the evolution of population vaccination?
page 10 #9. are there any other vaccines in development?
page 11 #10. is Vaccinating The World possible?
page 13 #11. what to expect for September 2021?
page 16 #12. what aspects should we pay attention to?
page 18 #13. ARE we READY FOR THE VACCINE?
page 20 #14. what are the Romanian peculiarities?
page 22 #15. Romania and the covid-19?
page 23 #16. THE VACCINE IN Romania?
page 27 #17. did we behave differently in the pandemic?
page 28 #18. perception of the vaccine in Romania?
page 30 #19. the vaccines in romanian online?
page 32 #20. the vaccines in romanian social media?
page 37 #21. how ARE THE kpis used?
page 38 #22. what is the public dimension of the vaccination campaigns?
page 42 #23. can the public communication fight the infodemic?
page 45 #24. how to fight the infodemic?
page 46 #25. Are there concrete templates of communication campaigns?
page 56 #26. even more useful tips & tricks?
page 57 #27. WHO IS „FUGAȘIN & pARTNERS”, AND WHY?

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#1. SUMMARY
Can science intelligence and real-time meta-analysis save weeks of work,
letting MarCom professionals focus on innovative strategies?
Let’s see how big data, open resources, a highly experienced team of
experts, and innovative digital tools can put a worldwide pandemic into a
whole new perspective, offering valuable connections among seemingly
disparate information.
At the beginning of 2020, a novel virus revealed itself to an unprepared
world, starting the most significant public health crisis the world has faced
in more than a century. The following year brought over 3.57 million dead
and 171 million sickened, leaving very few places and people untouched.At
the beginning of 2020, a novel virus revealed itself to an unprepared world,
starting the most significant public health crisis the world has faced in more
than a century. The following year brought over 3.57 million dead and 171
million sickened, leaving very few places and people untouched.
But it also brought the first clinically approved vaccines, developed in
record-setting time, and whose efficacy exceeded even the most optimistic
projections. Amidst the vicissitudes of 2020, a hive of scientists and medical
researchers mobilized historically. Hundreds of thousands of individuals,
spread across thousands of institutions in nearly every country around the
world, worked together to deconstruct the virus, to learn how it attacks the
body and how it spreads, and to engineer solutions for how
to fight it. And while the significant breakthroughs made headlines, much
of the work they relied on occurred behind the scenes, unacknowledged. In
most cases, only the negative aspects appeared in the media in what we call
today an ”infodemy”.
The global spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) has been accompanied by a
wave of disinformation that is undermining policy responses and amplifying
distrust and concern among citizens.
Using the power of big data and information analysis for the purpose of
strategic communication, the Marketing Communication consulting house
“Fugașin & Partners” presents a new 360º comprehensive research.
This communication audit summarizes over 230+ sources of information,
special analyses, explanations of the methods, and other tools to help
understand the communication and especially the miscommunication
during these challenging times.
Over 60+ pages analyze in detail the communication during this health crisis
from all points of view:
• what is happening in Romania compared to other countries,
• Romanians’ interest in the subject, including a political perspective,
analyses by counties and cities,
• the behavior of Romanians during periods of restrictions and lockdown,
• issues of concern and how they can be addressed,
• why there is more talk about one vaccine than another,
• predictions on the evolution of cases according to the measures taken by
the authorities,
• how ethnic groups and rural communities can be persuaded to be
vaccinated,
• presence and performance on social media measured with 34 KPIs up to
keyword level, hours when the audience is active, and what is the most
effective length of posts,
• templates for effective communication campaigns etc.
The present communication audit also includes sociological analyses,
predictions about vaccine manufacturers, and the answer to whether we
will get vaccinated in a sufficiently significant percentage.
We have avoided speculation and conspiracy theories even if the massive
volume of information analyzed nationally and internationally shows
specific patterns. We also avoided interpreting the efficiency of information
campaigns carried out by the Romanian authorities,
using information strategies instead of awareness ones or the details of
communication executions. The role of this communication audit is to
analyze, correlate data and present them undistorted to provide possible
solutions for improving the performance.
The efficacy of public communication in responding to the wave of
disinformation about the new coronavirus will depend on grounding in
transparency and building trust in public institutions.
As new relaxation measures roll out starting June 1, the authorities are
trying new ways to convince Romanians to get vaccinated, especially
teenagers. Prime Minister Florin Câțu announced on May 27 that a new
campaign based on emotion would be launched while communicating the
advantages of vaccination from returning to normality and the expected
holidays. This audit explores
whether this approach is correlated with social expectations or whether
there are other possible approaches available.
Of course, it’s not a matter of clairvoyance. Even experts can go
catastrophically wrong, as the former chief adviser to the UK’s prime
minister stated in a recent controversial statement. This is just one of
the arguments why communication teams in companies or even at the
government level should make greater use of ”superforecaster” tools like
the one you are getting for free now, instead of relying rather on opinions.
In a world flooded with data, ”Fugașin & Partners” provides context and understanding.
A new and complex communication audit from the consulting agency “Fugașin & Partners” offers a synthesis of the pandemic communication from different
perspectives, using big data and data correlations put in new contexts. This research is made available both to communication professionals to gain an insight into the
possibilities of using data in the construction of MarCom strategies and public authorities alike to facilitate comparisons with thriving practices in other countries.
Airfinity
Agentia Nationala a Medicamentului si a Dispozitivelor
Medicale din Romania (ANM)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
University of Oxford
Bloomberg Philanthropies
Boston Children’s/Health Map
Comitetul National de Coordonare a Activitatilor privind
Vaccinarea impotriva COVID-19 (CNCAV)
Covid Collaborative
CovidDataHub
Covid-NMA
DataGov.ro
DateLaZi.ro
Department of Political Science, University of Washington
Descartes Labs
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
European Medicines Agency
Facebook Data for Good
GetVaccineAnswers
GISAID Initiative
GitHub
Google Labs
Google Mobility
Google Trends
Graphs.ro
HealthData
Ilisten Social
Imperial College London
Institutul National de Sanatate Publica (INSP-CNSCBT)
Institutul National de Statistica (INS)
International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
& Associations
Kaiser Family Foundation
Medtronic Foundation
Microsoft AI for Health
Ministerul Sanatatii
National Institute on Minority Health and
Our World in Data
Real Time Medical Systems
Redapt
RoVaccinare
SafeGraph
The COVID Tracking Project
The Johns Hopkins University
The New York Times
UNESCO
US Department of Health and Human Services
StiriOficiale.ro
vaccin.live
VaccineTracker
Wellcome Trust
World Health Organization
Worldometers
YouGov.co.uk
And finally, the many Ministries of Health and Public Health
Departments across the world, collaborators, and partners
for their tireless data collection efforts.
Thank you!
Resources and special thanks to:

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The pandemic phenomenon caught humanity unprepared, the population not being able to make a clear distinction between the two terms.
At the beginning of the health crisis (March 8-21, 2020) in Romania there was mainly talk about CORONAVIRUS, the term COVID becoming common only in
July 2020. Below is the correlation of the evolution of the two topics and the main related public events.
STATE OF EMERGENCY
EASTER
2020
CHRISTMAS
2020
SCHOOL
START
2021
NIGHT
LOCKDOWN
2020
DECISION OF THE
CONSTITUTIONAL
COURT LOCAL
ELECTIONS
It is remarked that in the counties from Transylvania
the Romanians mainly use the term CORONAVIRUS
while the counties from the South of the country use COVID.
TOP 1O COUNTIES
CORONAVIRUS COVID
The WHO ranked vaccination hesitancy, defined as “the reluctance or refusal to
vaccinate despite vaccines’ availability,” among the ten most severe threats to
global health in 2019. Recently, the role of social media has been acknowledged
as an essential determinant of the spread of anti-vaccination sentiments, although
causal effects are challenging to establish.
Using the methodologies used in the studies linking the media to unhealthy food
purchasing decisions, we focus not on the refusal of mandatory vaccinations
but on the uptake of elective vaccinations to identify a design that allows us to
investigate how media coverage of a disease influences vaccination demand.
For starters, we look at the amount of ”general interest” of the public towards
”coronavirus” versus the amount of news generated, trying to understand if the
media educated the population or just fed the natural appetite for the subject.
In Romania, people talked initially about “coronavirus”, and only
at the end of July 2020 the switch was made with Covid-19, which
gained ground as a result of promoting the difference:
”Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)
is the name given to the 2019 novel coronavirus. COVID-19 is the
name given to the disease associated with the virus. SARS-CoV-2 is a
new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in
humans.”
It was not until September 2020 that the WHO, UN, UNICEF, UNDP,
UNESCO, UNAIDS, ITU, UN Global Pulse, and IFRC issued a joint
statement on ”Managing the COVID-19 infodemic: Promoting
healthy behaviors and mitigating the harm from misinformation and
disinformation.”
It should be noted that the volume of news (the transparent
surfaces) about the 2 topics (coronavirus and covid) is much higher
than the daily interest of Romanians on these topics. In other words,
the media has allocated a sometimes disproportionate effort to the
subject. Sometimes inefficient too, as will be seen in the following pages.
As can be seen, only at the beginning of the pandemic did the
volume of news coincide with the population’s interest in the subject,
while in July-December 2020, despite the massive volume of news,
the general interest of the population was much lower.
And it has remained relatively constant since then.
GENERAL INTEREST VS. PUBLISHED NEWS
Coronavirus NEWS amount
in Romania vs. the World
COVID NEWS amount
in Romania vs. the World
What was happening worldwide at this time? If we analyze the percentage of news dedicated to the pandemic from the total news available in a geographical
area, we can see that the topic “COVID-19” was approached in Romania much more intensively than in the rest of the world (and the theme “coronavirus”
follows the international trend).
Typically, this type of situation can also be classified as “infodemics” because it represents an overabundance of information online and offline, including
deliberate attempts to disseminate information about a subject. As will be seen in the following pages, sometimes ”too much” is not necessarily good.
#2. how did the Romanians’ interest
in the pandemic evolve?
#3. NEWS AMOUNT AROUND THE WORLD?
The evolution of the interest for the general theme CORONAVIRUS vs. COVID
in Romania, between December 1, 2019 - May 24, 2021

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Altogether all over the world, in 2019 there were
~5.000 articles on different coronaviruses coming out
per year.
But in 2020, across all science and medical fields,
approximately 1 out of every 10 articles was related to
coronaviruses (compared to 2019, where that rate was
closer to 1 out of every 130 pieces).
In Europe, for example, mass-media coverage on
„Coronavirus” & „Covid” combined shows Italy with the
most significant amount of general news on the topic.
In the political context, the Romanians’ interest in the subject of the pandemic is
relatively symmetrically distributed among the main political parties: PNL, USR Plus
and PSD. However, the volume of news generated by the analyzed political formations
increased considerably between December 27, 2020 and January 7, 2021 in favor of
the USR Plus alliance. This is explained by accessing the governance and contesting
previous measures.
The distribution by counties in Romania is somewhat in opposition to the election
results in those areas, which can be interpreted as the subject of “covid” used as a
political weapon against the opponents.
MASS-MEDIA COVERAGE ON “coronavirus” & “Covid” IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
PEOPLE’S INTEREST IN SCIENTIFIC NEWS
PEOPLE’S INTEREST IN CELEBRITY-RELATED NEWS
#4. DIFFERENT INTREREST IN
DIFFERENT TYPES OF PANDEMIC-RELATED NEWS?
#5. IS THERE ANY POLITICAL CONNECTION?
Romanians were interested in the virus somewhat
“scientifically” (according to the type of articles in the
media) at the end of March 2020, while in Italy, there
was an increase in this type of news in October 2020.
At a global level, there were 93,593 new scientific
articles in 2020. That means, on average, ~11 recent
reports coming out each hour, every hour throughout
the year. Those articles...
This body of literature not only reflects the sheer
volume of COVID-19 related research that occurred,
but also how that work took place. While the rest of
the world was shutting down (nations closing borders,
states closing schools, cities shuttering businesses),
the science and medical communities were expanding
outward and forming collaborations that spanned
institutions and borders.
While humanity exceeded the threshold of 1 million
Covid-19 deaths (end of Sept 2020) and in Romania
the situation became worrying due to the lack of
vacancies in COVID hospitals in Bucharest, the news
about the US President Donald Trump and First Lady,
Melania Trump, being infected exploded.
One might think that in Romania, the pandemic and
politics were intensely exploited by the media. Not
nearly! In Germany, the population may not have been
as interested in scientific articles as in our country,
but indeed, political associations with the virus have
abounded. The same goes for Italy, where the impact
has been strong in politics
PEOPLE’S INTEREST IN POLITICAL NEWS
the covid and the politics
in romania
political associations by county
were published in
6.799
different journals
had authors from
203
countries
with an average of
5,46
authors/article

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#6. what about 2019 and 2020?
Below can be seen what type of interests Romanians had in the similar period of 2020 and 2019, respectively the interests worldwide. The purpose of this audit
is to ascertain and synthesize conclusions, not to judge the depth of curiosities that humanity had before the outbreak of the pandemic...
Referring only to the healthcare workers (as a distinct target group), Romania is one of the only 6 European countries with 100% uptake
of at least one dose of the vaccine!
In EU/EEA the median is 83% HCW with at least one dose and 60,8% HCW fully vaccinated.
Cumulative uptake of at least one vaccine dose among
adults (18+) in EU/EEA countries:
This figure displays the cumulative uptake of at least one
vaccine dose of any vaccine product, regardless of the
dosing schedule, and is calculated as follows: the number
of first doses cumulatively administered to individuals
aged 18 years and above (18+) divided by the size of the
population aged 18+. For vaccine products with a
one-dose vaccination course, the first dose will be the only
one administered. The uptake is expressed as a percentage
(%). Population denominators for the total adult population
and age-specific population are obtained from Eurostat/UN.
Cumulative uptake of complete vaccination among adults
(18+) in EU/EEA countries:
This figure displays a proxy for the cumulative uptake of full
vaccination with any vaccine product among adults (18+).
It is calculated as follows: the number of full vaccinations
in individuals aged 18 years and above (18+) divided by the
size of the population aged 18+. The uptake is expressed as
a percentage (%). Complete vaccination is defined according
to the instructions of the manufacturer for each vaccine
product. Population denominators for the total adult
population and age-specific population are obtained from
Eurostat/UN.
Discrepancies with figures from national reports may be
explained by different data reporting pace and timing of
the data presented in the Vaccine Tracker. Please, refer to
the Notes on the data tab for additional information on
data reporting and data interpretation.
#7. europe and the vaccine?
Vaccination on May 14, 2021, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control:
Total doses distributed to EU / EEA countries: 215,717,952
Total doses administered to EU / EEA countries 182,672,105
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uptake of at least one dose (%)
vaccinated healthcare workers
Cumulative uptake (%) of at least
one vaccine and full vaccination

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About 5 months have passed since the first COVID-19 vaccines became available
in the European region. As vaccination programs rolled out across the region
when COVID-19 cases were increasing in some European countries, it was hard
to consider the challenges ahead and what can be done to address them. There
have been questions and speculations about the speed with which COVID-19
vaccines were authorized for use in Europe, the timetable for supplying vaccines
to some countries in the region, and the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in some
countries. These issues have been addressed by relevant authorities, including
national regulators, concluding that the benefits of COVID-19 vaccines far
outweigh any possible risks.
On March 10, 2021, Moldova was the first country in the European region to
receive a delivery from the COVAX Facility, a partnership between WHO, the
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance,
and UNICEF. Four other countries in the European region (Georgia, Albania,
Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) have since received vaccines from the COVAX
Facility. However, there is still much work to be done.
A commitment of WHO’s European Programme of Work is to “leave no one
behind”, which is especially important in the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. The
effectiveness of the available vaccines, shown in clinical trials and now in
real-world data, provides reassurance that immunized individuals are likely to
obtain protection, especially against severe disease or death. There is reassuring
evidence that COVID-19 vaccines reduce transmission and thus extend
protection to people around those who have been vaccinated. However, even
greater benefits arise if the threshold is reached for population immunity.
Romania is close to the European average as a percentage of the vaccinated population, but the daily vaccination rate is among the lowest in the EU.
share of people who received at least one dose
How many COVID-19 vaccination doses
have been administered?
The map shows the number of
COVID-19 vaccination doses per 100
people within a given population. Note
that this is counted as a single dose,
and may not equal the total number
of people vaccinated, depending on
the specific dose regime as several
available COVID vaccines require
multiple doses.
vaccine doses administered
per 100 people
daily covid-19 vaccine doses
administered per 100 people
share
of vaccinated population
Attention needs to be given to people who have the
opportunity to become vaccinated but decline to do so.
Left unaddressed, vaccination hesitancy will make it
challenging to achieve population immunity. Fortunately,
there are some indications that vaccine hesitancy has
declined since COVID-19 vaccines became available.
Luckily, this is a rapidly changing situation, and there
is continuing concern about vaccine hesitancy in some
countries in the region and some communities within them.
Consequently, there is no room for complacency, and it
is essential that all countries monitor the messages that
jeopardize vaccine acceptance which are circulating within
their countries, especially those spread on social media,
and take action to counter them with solid but succinct
refutations and use of positive stories that resonate with
their audiences.
Another crucial concern is reducing inequalities in vaccine
uptake. Researchers in the UK have documented how
people who live in socially and economically disadvantaged
areas, and especially members of some minority ethnic
populations, are less likely to be vaccinated for a
combination of reasons that include barriers to access and
mistrust in authorities.
However, only a few countries, such as the UK and Norway, are
systematically collecting data that can reveal ethnic disparities
in vaccine uptake. If inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage
are effectively invisible, it can be difficult for policymakers
to take adequate measures to tackle them. WHO has placed
inequalities high on its agenda for many years, informed by
analyses on the social determinants of health.
In a separate audit available upon request, “Fugașin &
Partners” analyzed the efficiency of the information
campaign carried out by the Romanian authorities and the
unfortunately inefficient approaches that do not consider
international recommendations, local specifics and the
expectations of local communities.
In a nutshell, how is Romania situated among
other countries?
Taking into consideration KPIs raging from the
median age and poverty indicator to available
hospital beds and percent of the vaccinated
population, one can see, for example, Germany
has the most hospital beds and no poverty, yet
it has most cases of critical illness.
Or that Moldova, with the youngest population
among studied countries, also has the lowest
percentage in the vaccinated population.
#8. what about the
evolution of population vaccination?
romania compared to other countries

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• ensuring the quality, safety and efficacy of vaccines
•
providing rapid access to vaccines for the Member States and their citizens while at the same time being the spearhead of global solidarity
• ensuring equitable access to an affordable vaccine as soon as possible
I. ensuring the production of vaccines in the EU and sufficient reserves for the Member States by concluding pre-purchase commitments with vaccine
manufacturers through the Instrument for Emergency Support. In addition to these commitments, producers may have access to additional funds and other forms
of support;
II. II. adapting the EU regulatory framework to take account of the current emergency and using existing regulatory flexibility mechanisms to accelerate
the development, authorization, and provision of vaccines while maintaining appropriate standards of quality, safety, and efficacy of vaccines.
Objectives of the E.U. Strategy for Vaccines against COVID-19:
The E.U. strategy is based on two pillars:
#9. are there any other vaccines in development?
nr. of doses, schedule, and route of administration
of candidates in clinical phase
candidates in clinical phase
number of vaccines in clinical development 100
number of vaccines in pre-clinical development 184
As announced by the World Health Organization in May 2021
In May 2021 there were 10.932.180.000 new vaccine doses contracted
worldwide, even for some of the 284 new vaccines candidates being in
different stages of clinical trials.
However, it has become apparent that many COVID-19 vaccine input supplies
of raw and packaging materials, consumables and equipment are in short
supply which may result in several COVID-19 vaccine manufactures not being
able to meet their current vaccine manufacturing commitments.
In total, there are 15.083 participants worldwide in these trials, with an
average of 529 people for each stage. Just for the 3rd phase though,
there is an average of 1.032 subjects.
“
“
I feel like I didn’t just get a vaccine, I got a shot of hope!
It’s hope that this is the beginning of the end of this terrible pandemic.
quote from a Facebook post
#10. is Vaccinating The World possible?
Landscape of Current COVID-19 Supply Chain and Manufacturing Capacity,
Potential Challenges, Initial Responses, and Possible Solutions
Production is scaling up rapidly With over 2.6 million deaths as of March 3, 2021, and an
economic cost estimated at 5-14 trillion USD per year due
to COVID-19, mitigating the pandemic is a paramount global
priority, and vaccines are a critical part of the solution.
But it usually takes more than five years to build the
manufacturing capacity for vaccines and 18-30 months to
transfer the production to other sites or manufacturers.
The use of new technologies such as mRNA in response to
COVID-19 poses additional challenges because no large-
scale manufacturing capacity nor specific raw materials
existed at the outset of the pandemic.
Notwithstanding these efforts, the strain on
manufacturing capacities and capabilities is very high, in
light of the immediacy and scale of the demand, which
may be exacerbated further if a broader coverage of the
population is needed and if boosters are necessary due to
waning efficacy and need to protect from new variants.
At the same time, vaccine manufacturers and suppliers
of vaccine components are scaling up for COVID-19
vaccine production from zero to billions of doses, with an
announced cumulative supply target of up to 14 billion
doses by the end of 2021. Within a record time of less
than a year, 11 vaccines are already in clinical use in
the countries where they obtained approval (often with
emergency/limited authorization), about 100 additional
candidates are in clinical trials, and hundreds of
candidates are in the pre-clinical phase. COVID-19 vaccine
manufacturers ramped up their manufacturing in parallel
to clinical development (“scale-up”) in response to this
challenge. There is a need for expanded manufacturing
capacity while building on existing mechanisms to sustain
and scale current Vaccine Alliance investments. They
also formed more than 150 partnerships with contract
development and manufacturing organisztions (CDMOs)
and other multinational biopharmaceutical companies
to transfer their technology and increase their overall
production (“scale-out”).
mrna vaccines are the most produced
china has quickly emerged as the largest producer
but others are scaling faster
CureVac
Serum Institute of India
Pfizer
J&J
Bayer and Novartis
AstraZeneca and Novavax
GSK
Merck
partner
with

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#11. what to expect for September 2021?
In the context of the relaxations on May 15, June 1st and July 1st and the general reluctance to vaccination, the estimates for the end of summer are all the
more necessary! Doctor Valeriu Gheorghiţă, the coordinator of the national vaccination campaign against COVID-19, explained at the end of May the decrease
in the number of people who show up for vaccination: “Although in recent weeks we have seen a decrease in the number of people who have been vaccinated
with the first dose, this does not correlate with a decrease in the intention to vaccinate. It is simply necessary to bring the vaccine closer to the beneficiaries,
closer to those who want to be vaccinated. I think that through an information campaign as coherent as possible and as extensive as possible, in the next
period, we hope to understand and think about what vaccination finally brings us“. The coordinator of the national vaccination campaign added that the
success of the vaccination campaign is moving to the local level.
In the last chapters of this audit, we explain in detail the communication techniques proposed by international organizations and analyze to what extent
they have been applied in Romania, thus identifying a possible cause for the results of the vaccination campaign in Romania. Available upon request is a
detailed analysis of how the new 7 TV and radio spots produced ”pro bono” by Propaganda respond to the actual expectations in the market.
UNICEF and Google sustain the spots support online distribution.
Below, the explanation of the scenario methodology, proving that policymakers can plan for the days and months ahead and change the pandemic’s course for
the better. Scenarios assume that the Government adapts the response by re-imposing social distancing mandates for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach
the threshold.
1. Key insights to Vaccine Manufacturing
and Supply Chain:
▪ Vaccine manufacturing processes (upstream,
downstream, fill-and-finish) are highly complex and
characterized by cutting-edge science and technologies.
Given this complexity, even the most advanced systems
could experience challenges.
▪ Effective manufacturing needs to overcome significant
challenges, including the need for highly specialized
equipment and personnel, time-consuming and
challenging technology transfers between partnering
manufacturers, global supply and manufacturing
networks, and the need for on-time supply delivery of
more than 100 components.
▪ Vaccine availability can reach its full potential only if
both vaccine manufacturing capacity ramps up reliably
and a fully functional vaccine input supply chain continue
to scale and deliver.
2. Key insights to COVID-19 Vaccine Supply
and Demand Overview:
Global demand for COVID-19 vaccines could range
from ~10-14 billion doses in 2021, depending on the
final aspired coverage rate, need for re-vaccination,
and boosters. There is currently sizeable geographic
variability in announced deals and demand. Estimates of
the percentage of the population required to meet herd
immunity vary, but a working estimate is 70%, or about
5.5 billion people worldwide, thus requiring 11 billion
doses of a two-dose regimen (subject to change if new
variants are more transmissible).
▪ Manufacturers have announced a supply target of up
to 14 billion doses – this would triple previous annual
vaccine output.
▪ The degree to which disparities between supply and
demand will continue depends on future developments,
including approval of late-stage candidates, optimization
and ramp-up of manufacturing processes in line with
plans, input supply challenges (e.g., bioreactor bags,
filters), and the impact of variants.
Even if these developments turn out favorably, the disparity
will persist in the majority of 2021 in any scenario, but most
demand could be met by the end of 2021.
If these developments turn out less favorably, the
disparity could persist for much longer.
▪ Finally, there are significant geographical demand and
supply imbalances.
3. Key insights to Input Supply Challenges:
▪ There is no complete and aligned view on the current
and to-be-expected input supply challenges (raw
materials, consumables, equipment).
▪ Signs of input supply challenges are being observed
across all vaccine manufacturing steps, e.g., bioreactor
bags, single-use systems, cell culture media (upstream),
filters, gamma sterilization (upstream and downstream),
vials (fill-and finish). These individual challenges are
amplified as the absence of any single input can disturb
the entire manufacturing process (compounded risk).
▪ The capacity limitations are further aggravated by
a tendency towards higher stock-keeping to counter
uncertainties and trade barriers.
▪ New challenges beyond the ones identified are likely to
arise. Moreover, knock-on effects of input challenges for
non-COVID-19 health products are already emerging.
cumulative deaths (sept. 1ST
)
hospital icu beds use (ROMANIA vs. EUROPE)
cumulative deaths (ROMANIA vs. EUROPE)
4. Key insights to Manufacturing Capacity and Interdependencies
Beyond COVID-19 Vaccines:
Availability and needs for drug substance capacity depend on the technology platform:
mRNA vaccines are a novel technology requiring new accommodation. According
to industry proponents, the built capacity is likely to be sufficient to meet announced supply
targets for 2021.
Protein subunit and viral vector vaccines can draw on a significant installed
base, potentially requiring the repurposing of 1-5% of existing capacity to
meet 2021 announced supply targets.
Data for the capacity and repurposing potential of inactivated virus-based
vaccines is limited.
▪ Visibility on the availability and need for fill-and-finish capacity is limited. COVID-19
vaccines are likely to need less than 2.8 billion vials capacity, juxtaposed to an
estimated existing capacity of more than 10 billion vials, according to industry
observers. To what extent such capacity is available and what repercussions
repurposing would entail on other health products, is unclear.
▪ To facilitate rapid and effective repurposing and building of new capacity (where
needed and sensible), better data, effective tech transfer, adequate quality of
capacity, and sufficiently deep partnerships are needed.
▪ Overall, implications of capacity expansion for COVID-19 vaccines on other health
products need to be carefully considered especially for fill-and-finish.
who has founded the covid vaccines?
key insights

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expected vaccine production by 2021
back to normal immunization forecasts
timeline for countries / regions to reach herd immunity based on agreed vaccine supply deals
overview of
second generation
covid-19 vaccines
Second generation COVID-19 vaccines
Candidate Phase III start
21,5% 16,9%
Percentage of adults that would be fully vaccinated
by the end of the summer on September 22
road to vaccination targets
Percentage of adults that would be fully vaccinated by the end
of summer on September 22, if the current number of doses per
day remains unchanged.
Romania ranks 28th out of 29 EU countries + the UK as the first
dose of vaccine.
Instead, Romania ranks 8th out of 29 to administer the
complete vaccination scheme, along with Italy and Spain.
The European Commission set the target of reaching 70 percent of fully vaccinated adults by the end of the summer,
marked below in light purple.
The dark purple dotted line represents the projected outcome if the current number of doses per day remains unchanged.
romania E.U.
Romania

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nationalism and the covid-19 vaccine production
In the first two months of 2021, the production of COVID-19 vaccines has suffered setbacks delaying the implementation of national inoculation strategies.
These delays have revealed the concentration of vaccine manufacture in a small club of producer nations, which in turn has implications for the degree to
which cross-border value chains can deter more aggressive forms of Vaccine Nationalism, such as export curbs.
During 2017–2019, vaccine-producing nations sourced 88% of their crucial vaccine ingredients from other vaccine-producing trading partners. Combined with
the growing number of mutations of COVID-19 and the realization that this coronavirus is likely to become a permanent endemic global health threat, this
finding calls for a rethink of the policy calculus towards ramping up the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, their ingredients, and the various
items needed to deliver them. The more approved vaccines are safely produced, the smaller the temptation to succumb to zero-sum Vaccine Nationalism.
How many vaccines can the world make this year?
The pharmaceutical industry, in common with many industrial sectors, does not reveal its production capacity. But aggregating publicly announced forecasts
from vaccine makers, there can be up to around 12 billion doses by the end of the year. Vaccine production can require more than 200 individual components,
which are often manufactured in different countries. These include glass vials, filters, resin, tubing and disposable bags. ”If any critical item falls short, then it
can disrupt the entire process,” said Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a non-governmental organization
headquartered in Oslo, speaking at a summit of manufacturers and policymakers. Many companies that make injectable drugs can help out with filling vials.
can companies work together to make vaccines faster?
Firms that would usually be competing are working together at a pace. Such a degree of collaboration between multinational corporations is unprecedented.
In addition, there are many fill-and-finish deals. Pfizer announced contracting manufacturing capacity for 2.9 billion vaccine doses to 25 firms in 15 countries.
Serum Institute, the world’s largest vaccine component manufacturer, also agreed on last August to make at least one billion doses of a vaccine developed by
Novavax in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
Why isn’t the world making more vaccines?
There are three main types of COVID-19 vaccine: viral vector, whole virus, and messenger RNA (mRNA). Moreover, the companies are proving slow to license
their manufacturing so that others could do this. It’s the most expensive component and, for example, the intellectual property rights for a popular cap design
are held by one company — TriLink Biotechnologies, based in San Diego, California. Maybe governments could use their authority to make chemical companies
produce more raw materials, but that’s a lot to ask for.
#12. what aspects should we pay attention to?
To what extent is intellectual-property protection slowing access to COVID-19
vaccines?
Some 11 billion doses are required to vaccinate 70% of the world’s population — assuming two doses are given per person. This includes 1.1 billion doses for
COVAX, a scheme in which international funders have pledged to vaccinate one-fifth of the world’s population. ”We cannot repeat the painful lessons from
the early years of the AIDS response, when people in wealthier countries got back to health, while millions of people in developing countries were left behind”,
said the executive director of UNAIDS as the campaign got under way. Proponents argue that a waiver will enable governments and manufacturers to jointly
organize a ramping up of vaccine supply. . This is a complex biological process with multiple quality-control steps, which is not that robust for RNA technology
yet. Furthermore, for mRNA vaccines, at least, intellectual property rights are scattered among many companies. Instead, companies could license their
intellectual property rights to third parties.
What other types of tech transfer could speed up vaccine production?
The WHO is advocating what it calls “coordinated technology transfer”, Universities and manufacturers license their vaccines to other companies through a
global mechanism coordinated by the WHO, facilitating staff training at the recipient companies and coordinating investments in infrastructure. It says this
approach is more coherent and transparent than one-off tech-transfer deals such as that between AstraZeneca and Serum Institute. In another approach,
the University of Pennsylvania, which owns sufficient intellectual property rights relating to mRNA vaccines to strike out on its own, is helping Chulalongkorn
University in Bangkok develop a vaccine-making facility.
Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are being used for the first time in this pandemic. Purification is next — again, relatively easy because the mRNA is the most
significant molecule in the mix, and there are no living cells or cell debris to eliminate. The next stage is to stabilize the RNA by encapsulating it in lipid
nanoparticles. Next, glass vials are filled with the vaccine substance. One filling line can fill around 400 vials per minute and operate about 60% of the time yearly.
What is the role of health care workers (HCW)?
HCWs remain the most trusted advisor and influencer of vaccination decisions in the face of emerging vaccine hesitancy. However, the capacity and confidence
of HCWs are stretched as they are faced with time constraints, increased workload, and limited resources and often have inadequate information or training
support to address questions. Overall, HCWs need more help to manage the quickly evolving vaccine environment and changing public, especially those who
are reluctant or refuse vaccination. Some recommended strategies include strengthening trust between HCWs, health authorities, and policymakers through
more shared involvement in establishing vaccine recommendations.
“
“
A pandemic is like an epic novel. It starts slowly, but then builds up to
become more and more dramatic, before coming down to a denouement.
quote from a Facebook post

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CONCLUSIONS:
1. The existence of well-functioning child immunization national delivery systems is not a strong
predictor of country readiness to deliver COVID-19 vaccines.
2. Most countries are focusing on strengthening the essential aspects of the vaccine delivery chain –
enough to advance vaccination schedules and begin inoculating their populations.
3. Few countries are using the opportunity provided by the imminent deployment of COVID-19
vaccines to strengthen health systems and find long-lasting solutions for similar future challenges.
4. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign offers a unique opportunity to countries to digitize their
information systems for tracking vaccines and vaccinated individuals, monitoring status, and reporting
adverse reactions.
5. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout is an opportunity to create a sustainable, environmentally-friendly
cold chain that could be of use well beyond the current crisis.
6. In terms of the process, countries that assigned dedicated staff, consolidated and facilitated data
collection, convened joint sessions of responsible agencies, and had gone through a similar exercise
earlier could complete the assessments rapidly.
Most low and lower-middle-income countries have come a long way in the last few months since a COVID-19 vaccine became imminent and the global
community and governments started preparing for the deployment of the vaccine. When COVAX was launched 8 months back, little was known about most
countries’ vaccine delivery capacity and capability. The first of the country readiness assessment tools was published only in September 2020, and it was only in
November 2020 when the World Bank, WHO, UNICEF, Gavi, and the Global Fund got together in an ambitious program of helping at least 100 countries in 100
days to get ready for the deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine that the readiness assessment process truly took off. The 100-countries-in-100-days target was met
well in time to support the development of NDVPs and for the first of the low-income countries to receive vaccines, which is occurring primarily through COVAX.
The COVID-19 vaccine rollout is going to be unlike any other prior vaccine delivery effort. The sheer volumes of people, doses, locations, and human resources
involved in the mammoth vaccination exercise will challenge the most resilient systems, and even the best-laid vaccine deployment plans will be seriously
tested. The scale of the operation is immense, and despite all efforts by governments and partners alike, not all countries will be fully ready in all respects to
rollout the vaccines by the time they receive the first significantly sized consignments. Yet, we are cautiously optimistic that most countries have addressed the
essential minimum requirements for safe delivery of vaccines and that they are ready enough to successfully deploy the small quantities that they will receive
in the next few months until June 2021. We are also cognizant that several things could go wrong as the rollout starts but are confident that the effort that
countries and partners continue to put in assessing and addressing gaps in readiness will help governments plan and execute amid uncertainty and deliver for
their populations.
We hope that the insights outlined in this paper will help governments, partners, communities, and all stakeholders improve and adapt as the crisis continues
to unfold and be better prepared for future pandemic threats.
Finally, we note from the experience of the first 12 weeks of readiness assessments that the process of carrying out the assessments is almost as important as
the results of the evaluations themselves. In most countries, the estimates have elevated the importance of readiness to the highest decision-making levels.
In the process, the assessments have brought together government officers, healthcare professionals, the private sector, and communities as well as global
partners in the most significant public health initiative ever undertaken, and have generated an unprecedented momentum as countries hunker down to
overcome the virus that has redefined the world in the last fifteen months.
Over one hundred countries have developed National Deployment and Vaccination Plans (NDVP) for
COVID-19 vaccine, which contains specifics related to regulatory preparedness, planning and coordination,
identification of target populations, preparation of supply chains, waste management, human resource
management and training, vaccine delivery strategies, demand planning, safety monitoring and
management of adverse events, and monitoring and evaluation – all critical areas for successful
deployment of the vaccine. Whereas the VIRAT-VRAF 2.0 gives a snapshot of country readiness, the NDVP
details the key inputs and processes necessary for successful deployment and is an essential indicator of
assessing a country’s willingness and decisions on the allocation of doses.
#13. ARE we READY FOR THE VACCINE?
progress in readiness assessment
across select key indicators
(128 countries reporting, as of February 2021)
COLD CHAIN
CAPACITIES ASSESSED
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT
STRATEGY DEVELOPED
VACCINE SAFETY
SYSTEMS IN PLACE
PROCESSES FOR VACCINE
DEPLOYMENT TRAINING COMPLETED
TARGET POPULATION
IDENTIFIED
NATIONAL COORDINATION
BODY IN PLACE
NATIONAL DEPLOYMENT
VACCINATION PLAN COMPLETED
EXPEDITED REGULATORY
VACCINE APPROVAL IN PLACE
yes progressing no no info
Likewise, most countries are reporting good progress in setting up a functional vaccine safety system. With help from WHO and Gavi, many countries have
established guidelines, documented procedures, and tools for planning and conducting vaccine pharmacovigilance activities, such as adverse events following
immunization (AEFI) reporting and investigation. Work is ongoing to establish coordination mechanisms between relevant stakeholders (including the National
Regulatory Authority (NRA), Ministry of Health, WHO, and others) to exchange COVID-19 vaccine safety information. Several countries have specified regulatory
pathways for the NRA to approve market access for COVID-19 vaccines and put in place regulatory instruments to ensure timely decision-making. Most countries
have existing legal bases of regulatory approvals and are getting ready to deploy them for COVID-19 vaccines as well.
Early results from the assessment identify several areas where more needs to be done. Most countries have not finished preparing training materials and have
yet to train many of the vaccinators required to deliver COVID-19 vaccines. Likewise, most countries have not finalized master lists of service providers and
points of delivery for effectively providing COVID-19 vaccine to target populations. Progress on the training of health staff to conduct surveillance of events
attributable to vaccination is also slow. Social mobilization and public engagement strategies also have not been enunciated in most countries. As a result,
advocacy, community engagement, and risk and safety communication remain largely unaddressed.
The assessments show that COVID-19 vaccination campaigns offer unique opportunities for countries
to develop specialized digital systems to track vaccines and vaccinated individuals, and monitor
vaccine safety and report adverse reactions. In addition, the large-scale vaccination mobilization
provides opportunities to countries to sustainably strengthen the cold chain and introduce
environmentally-friendly options that could be of use well beyond the current crisis.
Finally, it is noteworthy that in most countries, the assessments have succeeded in elevating
the importance of readiness to the highest levels of decision-making. The reviews have brought
together government officers, healthcare professionals, the private sector and communities as well
as global partners in the most extensive vaccination campaign in history and have generated an
unprecedented momentum as countries begin inoculating large swathes of the adult population to
overcome the virus that has redefined the world in the last fifteen months.
The table below provides a summary view of readiness progress across select vital indicators.
Significant progress has been made in most countries in Planning and Coordination. Most countries
have established a National Coordinating Committee (NCC) for COVID-19 and have set up a
National Technical Working Group (NTWG) for COVID-19 vaccine introduction. Several countries
have established NTWG subcommittees to assess service delivery, cold chain & logistics, demand
generation & communication, etc. Many countries have begun planning for vaccine access through
COVAX as well as through bilateral purchase agreements.
ASSESSING COUNTRY READINESS FOR COVID-19 VACCINES
The global COVID-19 vaccination campaign, the most significant public health initiative ever undertaken, presents challenges unprecedented in scale, speed, and
specificities, especially in low and middle-income countries. In November 2020, anticipating the availability of safe and effective vaccines for COVID-19, the World
Bank and WHO, UNICEF, the Global Fund, and Gavi rolled out readiness assessments in more than 100 low and middle-income countries. The key
insights from the reviews to date present a high-level snapshot of country readiness to deploy COVID-19 vaccines based on initial findings from ongoing
assessments in 128 countries.
The World Bank provides $12 billion for developing countries to purchase and distribute COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and treatments and strengthen health and
vaccination systems to ensure vaccines get to those who need them. The assessments provide precious insights into countries’ preparedness and will feed into
World Bank projects.
Initial findings from the ongoing assessments show that the world’s poorest countries are at varying degrees of readiness for the massive undertaking of
vaccinating their populations against the deadly COVID-19 disease.
The assessments reveal that while 85% of countries have developed national vaccination plans and 68% have vaccine safety systems, only 30% have designed
processes to train the large number of vaccinators needed for the campaign. Only 27% have created social mobilization and public engagement strategies to
encourage people to get vaccinated. Given the worrying vaccine hesitancy levels, plans to generate confidence, acceptance, and demand for the vaccine are
urgently needed.
The assessments further show that most countries focus on strengthening essential aspects of the vaccine delivery chain – enough to advance vaccination
schedules and begin inoculating their populations.
The pandemic’s devastating toll on health and economies, fear of highly contagious variants, and public pressure to start vaccinations have prompted many
countries to prepare aggressive vaccine delivery schedules. Although governments have many gaps in readiness, most have prepared well enough in select
essential areas to begin inoculating their populations as soon as vaccines become available.
Most countries are approaching the COVID-19 vaccine rollout as an emergency and emphasize speed and expediency over the deliberative system- strengthening.
As a result, they miss out on the benefits of long-lasting improvements that a systems approach could bring.

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#14. what are the Romanian peculiarities?
Romania in the ‘90s was divided between the pro-West and the nostalgic
pro-East. The pandemic has done the same, but the debate between pros
and cons this time can have collective health consequences. Old friends
broke up, and tensions arose between co-workers.
What to do? At the social level, perhaps we need big, national projects that
involve as many people as possible who other ways are in opposition to
each other. Projects that can be achieved only through the cooperation of
these opposing parties.
But where does this reservoir of skeptics come from? Is there a connection
between religion, communism, age, education? It seems that there are
many factors involved, from the high percentage of scientific and functional
illiteracy in Romania, to the distrust in the authorities. Considering the
enormous amount of news articles promoting pseudoscience, be it even
new age, we have the recipe that leads to an extremely high level of
conspiracy theories. It is like when hunger is quenched not by healthy food
but by processed food, which in the medium term is harmful to health.
And yet… as seen on page 4 of this communication audit, Romanians are
more eager than Italians or Germans for scientific news, for concrete data.
This could be speculated in a positive way by the authorities, namely, to
insert technical aspects and dry information in an emotional context.
How do you explain
what a dose of vaccine contains?
The truth is that it is overly complicated to explain to those who have not
yet been vaccinated that a dose contains 30 micrograms of Messenger RNA,
cholesterol, potassium chloride, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, chloride,
sodium, disodium phosphate dihydrate, sucrose etc.
So, in the latest approach to the vaccination campaign at the end of May,
the Romanian authorities focused on EMOTION:
“What does a dose of the vaccine contain?” the official question sounds.
Travel, festivals, reunions with loved ones… The rational part was omitted
entirely, ignoring and not answering exactly the questions ruminated by the
disputatious public, thus spreading questionable information such as the
compulsory repetitiveness of vaccination or possible social discriminations.
And the inherent discussions about vaccination costs and who will
bear them have not yet begun! Because until May 30, 2021, the doses
administered in Romania cost over 89 million euros (24 Euros for the Pfizer
vaccine or 36 Euros for the one produced by Moderna), and will increase
considerably with the continuation of the booster and the approach of
the 12-16 age group. So somewhere around 340 million euros which it
is not known who will pay for fuels the speculations according to which
the citizens will be plundered by the pharmaceutical industry. Such image
damage and long-term trust cleavage can be significant!
Does military dictatorship really mean
anything other than you think?
Emotions, especially those artificially induced by a vaccination campaign,
dissipate quickly. And the speculations that have in their center the
“medical dictatorship” remain. A “dictatorship” that over the years had
saved millions of lives, in fact, including absolutely everyone who was a
child in the ‘70s and ‘80s when we were vaccinated at school without much
discussion. Most of the time, the parents were the last to know that “a lady
came to school and vaccinated us all”.
Today in Romania, there are 3 types of image vectors both in the anti-
vaccine and in the pro-vaccine camp: those who sincerely believe in what
they propagate, the usual opportunists who ride the wave of social media
regardless of the topic they are debating, and those who promote ideas as
a job (not always in a negative or pejorative sense). It sometimes happens
that these categories mix their ideas, and the confusion grows… If we add
the local “mioritic” specificity, the show is guaranteed. A show from which
nobody has anything to gain.
According to a recent survey, the percentage of those who do not want to
get vaccinated citing less rational reasons (such as wait until there is more
information about the side effects and effectiveness of vaccines) seems
to be similar to those who believe that the Sun spins around the Earth
(another study that created turmoil in its day).
Do we believe in both pseudo-
and para-science, as well as in scientific
manipulations alike?
Officially, the population’s distrust of the authorities, the fear of side effects,
the lack of trust in vaccines in general, and the low level of education
are among the reasons that determine Romanians not to get vaccinated.
Unfortunately, the studies so far have not officially considered the increased
confidence in pseudo and para-science and superstitions, the Romanians
being also among the most religious in Europe. And the vaccine is a defining
product of the medical sciences.
At the same time, the suspicion of “official” manipulation, the fear that
various people influence information about Covid vaccines (and the
pandemic in general), organizations, or institutions play an essential role in
the decision not to vaccinate us.
Unfortunately, dysfunctional aspects of social networks such as filtering
information according to already formed opinions or rewarding sensational
news (dysfunctions usually either neglected or over-speculated by
communicators in commercial campaigns - but that is another discussion)
contribute considerably amplifying the decision not to get vaccinated.
This general lack of confidence, often diffuse, subsequently declines
depending on the sociographic (e.g., level of education, profession, age,
etc.) or psychographic (e.g., values, personality traits, motivations, etc.)
of skeptical people.
What to expect in the labor market,
in this context?
Returning to the pragmatic aspects of daily life that can return sooner or
later to normal depending on reaching the vaccination thresholds of the
population, we briefly analyze the labor market in post-pandemic Romania.
57% of companies are in no hurry to make significant hires until the
autumn, considering a possible “wave 4” of the number of infections. The
uncertainty of the pandemic dynamics even makes 1 in 3 managers consider
the thawing of jobs only in 2022. It is true, part of the expectations of
restarting the economy are based on the infusion of European funds.
However, Romanians who over-specialize and those who expand their
expertise will have greater employment opportunities in the “new
economy” dominated by digitalization and efficiency.
Also, in a digital economy accelerated by the Covid crisis, more and more
companies willing to work remotely will optimize their staffing schemes so
that the race for a well-paid job will be tighter and tighter.
How the Pandemic Underlined
the Essential Role of Data in 2020
Speaking of the digital economy and access to data, we must recognize
that the public health emergency triggered by COVID-19 has made 2020 an
especially critical year for health data. It has never been more important to
collect accurate and trusted data and produce timely analyses.
Private companies and NGOs have partnered with governments across
the globe to improve the way they access timely and accurate health
information and harness the power of data.
And major pharmaceutical companies, especially those that use large-scale
clinical trials as a business differentiator, are now relying on employees
with the ability to synthesize large volumes of data, tech-savvy, and able to
“translate” medical language into public understanding.
Does big data help in identifying
fake news?
The importance of data applies to the enormous amount of news and
articles. For example, by 2019, there were ~5.000 publications on
coronaviruses coming out per year, as COVID-19, or rather the virus SARS-
CoV-2 belongs to a larger class of viruses known as coronaviruses that were
first characterized in the mid-1960s.
However, it was not until the SARS outbreak in 2002 and the subsequent
MERS outbreak of 2012 that coronaviruses became the focus of increasing
research attention. If only two years ago 1 out of 130 scientific articles was
about the virus, today 1 in every 10 articles tackles this subject, meaning 11
articles each hour.
As the traditional science information channels are rapidly being
transformed and the speed of new science is accelerating, researchers are
challenged to keep fully up to date. Research articles formally acknowledge
previous work via citations, which, when tracked, can establish the lineage
of scientific discovery. By tracing the line of an article’s citations, you can
begin to reveal the contours of the mountains of research that came before.
And so, you can check from the original source whether a news story is true
or not.
Let’s look at the most current topic: who discovered the first vaccine? Pfizer
or Moderna? It doesn’t matter who gave the first press release because
in December 2020, both companies reported the success of their phase 3
vaccine clinical trials, officially paving the way for approval and wide-scale
distribution.
But access to information and big data mining allows us to access the
original scientific articles, not those in the mainstream media:
Company Publication Title of article
Date of
publishing
Pfizer
New England
Journal of
Medicine
Safety and Efficacy of the
BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
Dec 10, 2020
Moderna
New England
Journal of
Medicine
Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-
1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine
Dec 30. 2020

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#15. Romania and the covid-19? #16. THE VACCINE IN Romania?
new cases in Romania (may 10, 2021) death cases
Doses distributed per 100 inhabitants
main CONCERNS about THE vaccines
Romania ranks 19th globally in terms of the number of infections, whereas Italy is 7th and Germany 16th. Regarding the number of deaths, Romania is in 8th
place and the Republic of Moldova on the 17th.
The disproportion can be clearly seen in this graph, hence the importance of
immunization in the population.
Weekly average: 99
confirmed cases vs. performed tests
(per 1.000 people)
Confirmed cases
Tests performed
performed tests vs. confirmed Tests
(total)
Positive tests are estimated by multiplying the number of tests performed
by the positive rate. The number of positive tests may not be equal to the
number of positive cases due to differences in reporting and the fact that
people take the test more than once.
According to a recent official research, between 25 and 29% of Romanians openly refuse vaccination. Unfortunately, the study does not deepen the reasons.
This is why ”Fugașin & Partners” summed up the main issues of concern among the population, using the power of big data, open data, and online research.
Analyzing these topics of concern and offering simple answers should make it easier for the national authorities responsible for communication to develop an
efficient awareness campaign to combat reluctance. Time will tell if the new communication campaign started on May 15th will increase the percent of the
vaccinated population.
Tests
Positive tests
Weekly average: 99
DAILY VACCINE DOSE ADMINISTERED TO 100 PEOPLE
evolution of 1 dose vs. FULL
Confirmed cases
Tests performed
Tests performed
Positive tests

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Accessing and analyzing big data can, of course,
tell us what has worked in the past. But amid a
constantly evolving pandemic like COVID-19, it
is not a simple matter to identify countries that
have been most effective and therefore have
the most to teach the rest of the world about
best practices. Based on the current data, we
developed a methodology to help us identify
these emerging successful countries. There
are considerable limitations to the selection
methodology due to the pandemic’s evolving
nature, including incomplete data, evolving
case definitions, and the fact that the ultimate
outcomes are unknown.
It is not possible to identify emerging success
stories, or exemplars, using just one indicator.
Each data point has nuanced drivers and
meanings, making it essential to triangulate
and look across multiple indicators to identify
countries that have had success to date in
managing the pandemic. The daily rates
of confirmed deaths follow very different
trajectories in countries. The steeper the slope
of the curve, the faster the rate of increase in
fatalities. Countries counting the most deaths
might also have larger populations, so we
need to take the deaths per capita to account
for differences in population. Also, some of
the graphs made available by the authorities
suggest that some responses have been
much more effective at reducing deaths from
COVID-19 than others, but they do not tell us
why they are more effective.
Detect, Contain, Treat
To help shed light on why some responses are
more efficient, we initially started with a four-
part framework for epidemic preparedness
and response: prevention, detection,
containment, and treatment. Because
transmission of COVID-19 is ongoing, it is too
soon to determine what country will ultimately
succeed at prevention, so we excluded the
prevention phase from our analysis. We
selected multiple indicators for the detection,
containment, and treatment phases that
could help us identify which countries excel
at any given phase. This enables us to identify
countries that show emerging success at each
phase, making it more likely to glean detailed
insights useful for other countries.
For a thorough analysis, one should walk
through all the data gathered in synthesized
graphs addressing all three phases, describing
what each graph can and cannot tell us about
a country’s response. Updated daily, these
data representations converted into visual
lines tell us what countries stand out and who
now might change over time. Some countries
with early positive outcomes were unable to
sustain their success, whereas the situations in
other countries gradually improved.
Vaccines in romania
Vaccine efficacy
how data
can be used to identify
emerging covid-19
success stories
Vaccine doses distributed in E.U. / eea
by manufacturer
Doses delivered vs. administered in Romania
centralization by manufacturer in Romania
Vaccine doses distributed in romania
by manufacturer

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Age distribution of vaccinated persons in romania
% of vaccinated people in Romania
% vaccination by counties
The age distribution of vaccinated individuals
may explain the behavior and reactions to the
vaccination campaign.
For example, according to data available in early
May 2020, the highest vaccination rate (28%) is
in the 60-79 age group, while between 16 and 29
years only 9.7% are vaccinated with at least a dose.
In other words, for every 3 elderly people,
1 young person is vaccinated.
The social listening tools used in the present
analysis indicate as a possible cause of the
increased interest of seniors not the information
campaign carried out by the authorities, but the
fear (of complications of existing diseases and
therefore death) as well as a sacrifice (an argument
that in case of possible severe side effects young
people in the family to be protected).
The national vaccination strategy in Romania aims
to vaccinate 75% of the elderly and chronically ill
population. Today, the 50% threshold is close to
being reached.
#17. did we behave differently in the pandemic?
Observing that the population aged 60-69 was the most “disciplined” being in the first place as a complete vaccination scheme, and that those in the group of
50-59 years are already vaccinated with the first dose, can be interpreted that the mature population, born before the 1960s, is the most receptive to the
vaccination campaign.
The analysis of the triggers/messages that impacted this age group and why the “cool” statements did not catch on to the young audience are available upon
request for an in-depth analysis.
Following consumption and travel habits during pandemy and lockdown, we have analyzed data provided by Google and Apple at national and county level for
a limited time, so long as public health officials find them useful in their work to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Data is broken down by types of locations and displays the change in visit patterns to familiar places like grocery stores and parks. In this audit, we focus only
on locations relevant to the subject, which are useful to social distancing efforts and access to essential services. The graphs show how visits and length of stay
at different places change compared to a baseline and are improved as places close and reopen.
retail stores accesability
grocery & pharmacy
Workplace presence
Residential presence
reference base
reference base
Retail & recreation: restaurants, cafes, shopping centers,
theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters.
-7% compared to baseline -16% in Bucharest +2% in Ilfov
workplace presence: High / rhythmic frequency refers to the days of the
week versus weekends when attendance at work is not recorded. We need to
look at the sharp decline due to the March 2020 lock down and the gradual
return to the office as companies resume their activity, i.e. this year’s trend to
work from home / other locations than usual.
The remote / home work trend is the subject of a separate audit carried out by
“Fugașin & Partners”.
-19% compared to baseline -31% in Bucharest -24% in Ilfov
Grocery & pharmacy: grocery markets, food warehouses,
farmers’ markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies.
+20% compared to baseline +24% in Bucharest +2% in Ilfov
residential presence: In the mirror of the lack of presence at work, it
is observed that Romanians stayed at home during the lockdown period and,
even more accentuated, on the occasion of the Orthodox Easter Holidays on
April 20. After the holiday trend in September, there is a pronounced tendency
to work from home.
-2% compared to baseline +6% in Bucharest +3% in Ilfov
May 4. May 20. +/-
Bucharest 31,2% 36,1% +4,9%
Cluj 28,0% 33,2% +5,2%
Sibiu 21,8% 26,8% +5%
Brașov 22,0% 25,7% +3,7%
Timiș 22,5% 25,1% +2,6%
Constanța 21,4% 24,8% +3,4%
There is a presumption that this approach to focus on “successful” counties is
motivated by the pursuit of faster growth of officially reported figures, contrary to
official recommendations (discussed in the following chapters) which provide different
approaches for ethnic groups, age groups, etc. In support of this theory are the locations
where the “vaccination marathons” took place.
The population in the west of the country is vaccinated clearly more than in the rest of Romania.
Logically, if there had been a decision-making analysis, it was expected that in the third part of the vaccination campaign,
the “free” one, the authorities would focus on recovering the gaps in the counties with low vaccination rates. Only that
the official data show that in the last 2 weeks (end of May) things have generally happened the other way around: the
most significant increases in the share of vaccinated have been in areas that were already well due to the collective
mentality and a more good local logistics organizations:
However, such conclusions may feed the theory already circulated in the public space according to which the decrease of the incident that made possible the
much-desired opening is related to luck and the etiology of the virus rather than non-pharmaceutical and vaccination measures.

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#18. perception of the vaccine in Romania?
The interest of Romanians for the subject of
”coronavirus” and ”covid”
compared to the topic of ”vaccine” between
November 01, 2020 - May 14, 2021.
An increase is observed between January
15-21 associated with the vaccination of
President Klaus Iohannis and the related
public signal.
Then on March 15, when the day’s topics
were vaccination platform blockages
and signals related to the side effects
associated with AstraZeneca.
For comparison, if we analyze only the news
published between November 2020 and May 2021
(not online searches and discussions), it is
observed that although the official vaccination
campaign started on December 27, 2020,
the interest really only increased on January 15-21.
A correlation between the evolution of the virus
and the vaccine existed between March 9-15, when
reports began on the side effects associated with
the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Since then, despite a peak of interest in Covid/
Coronavirus on March 26 (associated with an
increase in the number of infections and
predictable problems with the number of intensive
care beds), the genuine interest of Romanians in
vaccination has been relatively constant, even with
a slightly decreasing trend that intensified towards
the end of May (not included in the chart).
As a preamble to the following chapter, here are the findings of a September
2020 study of the attitudes and impacts of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and
resistance in ethnic communities and highlights critical areas of focus to
increase vaccine uptake.
Rroma communities have been disproportionately affected by pandemic
morbidity and mortality, and this experience is reflected in hesitancy attitudes
and behavior. While vaccination is a vital strategy for stopping the virus, a
significant majority mistrust the safety and efficacy of a COVID-19 vaccine,
making trust-building on these fronts critical.
Efforts must focus on demystifying the process itself— ensuring that
communities have access to quality information that helps build their
understanding of the science. The best messengers for this content are often
close to home, including influencers from their community like singers.
These messengers should deliver messages that instill a sense of personal
responsibility for vaccination and do not promote social pressure.
On the other hand, Hungarian and Saxon community members seem less
likely than Rroma respondents to link government distrust to vaccine safety
and perceive discrimination. Levels of trust in institutions and institutional
messengers are markedly higher—suggesting that more traditional public
health efforts may gain more traction in these communities
Because of the positive correlation between Hungarian and Saxon identity and
vaccine intention, and because elected officials in one’s community are more likely
to be trusted than Romanian elected officials, efforts to promote uptake should
leverage voices from within the community and should reinforce the notion that
vaccination is a responsibility that helps the said community at large.
The counties with the most Romanians interested
in the general topic of vaccination are, in order,
presented together.
Analyzing all 42 regions, it is observed that the
population of Transylvania is most interested in
discovering news on both topics, while the south and
east of the country are interested in covid / coronavirus
rather than the vaccination itself.
At the city level, approximately the territorial disposition
in terms of interest in covid/coronavirus is preserved.
But it is interesting to note that the greatest cumulative
interest in vaccines is in the localities bordering
Bucharest, the capital itself being only in 11th place.
Counties and cities
with the most Romanians interested in the general topic of vaccination
Keywords associated with the topic of
vaccination were, in terms of frequency
of information searches, “covid
vaccination”, “ro vaccination” and “vaccine
programming”.
At the same time, regarding the increasing
interest (from scratch), the following topics
stand out in order:
• ro vaccinate
• vaccination schedule
• platform vaccination
• Pfizer (with derived searches is in the
4th place, Moderna being in the 9th)
• vaccination centers
• live vaccination
• covid prevention
General topics
associated with ”vaccination”
interest for
Vaccines vs. Coronavirus
Interest on Covid vs.
Vaccine in news
Vaccine news
associated politically
POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONS FOR CONVINCING THE HESITATIVE communities
At the level of volume of news searches about
vaccination (not the general topic of interest) the
eastern part of the country with (in order) the
counties of Vaslui, Brăila, and Tulcea,
this can be explained most likely by the lack of
adequate information in the local press and hence
the need to look for additional information.
Going into more detail, the most common
association of vaccination news with the political
area is found in Teleorman, Dolj, and Olt.

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2021
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#19. the vaccines in romanian online?
related ”longtail” searches
If we “listen” to the entire online environment and filter only
the topics related to vaccine manufacturers in Romania, it is
found that 2 out of 3 references are related to “Pfizer”. The
reasons (which are not entirely related to the company’s
communication efforts) are available in a separate research
conducted by “Fugașin & Partners” on this topic.
It is interesting to note that the discussions dedicated to
AstraZeneca, for example, refer to the brand in the alternative,
the leading associations being with “vaccine”, “serum” and
“decisions”. Instead, dedicated discussions / referring to ”Pfizer”
not only mention the brand but also refer to competitors
(AstraZeneca is usually not put in a competitive context).
The map shows that “Pfizer” is most often mentioned in the
Western part of the country, a situation whose causes are
worth investigating.
The graph shows the discrepancy between
the interest shown by Romanians in online
searches for “Pfizer” versus other vaccine
manufacturers. This topic is detailed on the
next page along with possible causes.
Highest interest for Pfizer + BioNTech
general interest for vaccines
trending and ”longtail” searches associated with the vaccines producers
vaccine brand usage in discussions
topic cloud associated with ”pfizer” and ”astrazeneca”
pfizer astrazeneca
The primary searches associated with the subject
of vaccines have as a possible cause the lack of
centralized data (there are several official online
sources of information) and easy to assimilate
visually.
Below are centralized the trending searches,
respectively long-tail associated expressions.
It should be noted the interest for the stock
price for all the analyzed producers!
“
“pfizer is like the new iphone
and moderna is the old one
Romanian stand-up comedian

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2021
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#20. the vaccines in romanian social media?
Usually, online communication campaigns use 1 dedicated #hashtag and 2 or 3 that cover a wider field allowing the topic to be contextualized. In Romania until
the end of May 2021, when a new official communication campaign began (the effectiveness will be analyzed along the way), English-language hashtags such
as #strongertogether were used (ineffective in rural areas and in the social media population over 65+), as well as general hashtags like #romania.
At the end of May, the communication initiated by the Romanian Government introduced 2 other key words, giving up the already established ones:
#ÎmpreunăÎnvingemPandemia and #CeConțineVaccinul, while @RoVaccinare added #punemumarul alongside with #punemumărul (!). The effectiveness of
these initiatives has not yet been measured, requiring a significantly larger volume of data.
By the end of May, #rovaccination was used by 2.6 K people (increasing), #totulvafibine 39 K (stagnation in the last month), #strongertogether 707 K
(slight increase), but it also accumulates posts from outside Romania in various other contexts. As #Pfizer (used in official communications), totals 240 K
internationally. Unfortunatelly, the motivational #româniaînvingepandemia and #poveștidelavacinare (with good potential) score to low to be analyzed.
Typically, comparative analysis using combinations of metrics such as ”the number of reactions related to the length of texts” or ”representative professional
categories and the hours they respond” are helpful in audits conducted for commercial actors (as we calibrate other sets of KPIs for political actors). In
this case, considering the specifics of the subject (”vaccination”) and because Romanians need to have a centralized information page, we analyze the @
RoVaccinare page individually.
Analyzing all the reactions, comments, and
redistributions of the posts on @RoVaccinare,
we can identify the topics that generated the best
impact so that success can be replicated.
Analyzing the evolution of the most relevant posts on the Facebook platform in April and May of 2021, respectively, it is found that initially, political figures
such as the Mayor of Timisoara or the President of Iasi County Council gained significant exposure with posts about vaccines.
A situation inconsistent with the circumstances analyzed in other countries, but also impossible if the communication recommendations proposed by
international organizations such as the World Health Organization were followed. In the last chapters of the present communication audit carried out by
“Fugașin & Partners,” we study this aspect to see how the communication efforts at the national level can be improved.
Fortunately, in April 2021,
the situation seems to have
become predictable,
the principal place of
information becoming the
official page @RoVaccinare.
total reactions, comments, and shares
Similarly, for the impact depending on the length of the post. In general, posts should be short and simple.
As an overview, we analyzed the main 3 official Facebook pages that inform about vaccinations in Romania.
Of all the 34 KPIs commonly used in audits conducted by “Fugașin & Partners”, we summarize here only a part of the so-called “vanity metrics”.
length of posts

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top hashtags top words top weekdays
On May 10, one of the most impactful posts by the number of comments (3rd), used an impactful hashtag: #VreauNormalitate.
Unfortunately, the potential was not noticed by the page admins, although the expression was also used by some public figures.
As for the most often used words in official posts, there are a lot of conjunctions, but keywords such as “vaccination” or “reactions” (crucial in effective
communication) are only in 7th and 8th place.
The bigger the dot, the more was posted. The greener the bubble, the more reactions they got.
@RoVaccinare seems to prefer posting in the afternoon, although the community reacts mainly in the morning (about 10:00 AM) or during the evening
(after 06:00 PM).
Posting, especially on weekends, may seem a good idea. But it
must be correlated with the typologies of the public and the hours
when they are active.
Especially when you post with such a frequency (6.5 posts/day).
types of posts
Pictures
Videos
As will be seen below, the official @RoVaccinare page does not sufficiently exploit the power of Facebook algorithms for video posts and almost no links
leading visitors to a general ”honey pot” where all the information can be served centralized. Generaly speaking, it is good advice to try out all posts
types and engage the community with a good mixture.
The worst performing posts are the live ones due to the lack of promotion before the posts but also due to the lack of a community to be kept up to date with
online interventions.
On the other hand, the”top videos” are about the arrival of vaccine transports in Romania (but most of these videos are no longer available because they have
been cross-links, not page-generated content.
top videos
weakest videos
by day time
engagement matrix
“
“
we’ll launch a new campaign based on emotion!
PM Florin Câțu

Big Data in Communication: Analysing Why The Vaccination Campaign Failed

Big Data in Communication: Analysing Why The Vaccination Campaign Failed

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