DFS22_Training_Freddy Van Den Spiegel_Febelfin Academy_041022
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Digital Finance Summit 2022 - Training Session https://www.digitalfinancesummit.com/
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DFS22_Training_Freddy Van Den Spiegel_Febelfin Academy_041022
- 2. febelfin academy EU AGENDA FOCUS ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR Prof. Dr. Freddy Van den Spiegel October 2022
- 3. EU AGENDA FOCUS ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪Major challenges for Europe ▪European agenda and the financial sector
- 4. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis 4
- 5. Europe's specific challenges Seven crises in about 10 years. Just too many? Since 2008: the financial crisis Since 2011: the euro crisis Since 2014: the immigration crisis Since 2015: the crisis of "new nationalism" Since 2016: BREXIT Since 2020: COVID Since 2022: Ukraine/energy No time for recovery
- 6. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis ▪Low growth and slow recovery after crisis 6
- 7. US GDP CONSTANT PRICES +22%
- 8. EURO AREA GDP CONSTANT PRICES +7%
- 9. 9 stoxx600
- 10. 10 S&P500
- 11. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis ▪Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪Nationalism and autocraty 11
- 13. The economist
- 16. 23/7/2022
- 17. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis ▪Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪Nationalism and autocraty ▪Weak, oversized banks 17
- 20. EBA EUROPEAN BANKS RETURN ON EQUITY 20
- 23. FT 5/9/2018
- 26. Ft 7/9/2020 FT 3/10/2020 FT 9/1/2021 FT1/3/2021
- 27. FT 2/8/2022
- 28. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis ▪Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪Nationalism and autocraty ▪Weak, oversized banks ▪High public debt 28
- 30. EUROZONE DEBT TO GDP
- 32. Major challengs for Europe ▪Continuous crisis ▪Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪Nationalism and autocraty ▪Weak, oversized banks ▪High public debt ▪Ecb and monetary policy 32
- 33. EUROSYSTEM BALANCE SHEET TOTAL
- 34. 34 EUROZONE INFLATION From deflation to galoping inflation and stagflation?
- 35. 35 EUROZONE GDP GROWTH QOQ
- 36. 36 REFI RATE And further increases to come
- 37. 37 Increasing interest rates and financial stability in the Eurozone?
- 38. 38
- 39. 39 Further increases of ECB balance sheet and full control of yield curve?
- 40. Major challengs for Europe ▪ Continuous crisis ▪ Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪ Nationalism and autocraty ▪ Weak, oversized banks ▪ High public debt ▪ Ecb and monetary policy ▪ Ukraine and energy? 40
- 41. Major challengs for Europe ▪ Continuous crisis ▪ Low growth and slow recovery after crisis ▪ Nationalism and autocraty ▪ Weak, oversized banks ▪ High public debt ▪ Ecb and monetary policy ▪ Ukraine and energy? ▪ Ambitions in a globalised world? 41
- 42. EU AGENDA FOCUS ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪Major challenges for Europe ▪European agenda and the financial sector
- 43. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ESG 43
- 44. ESG : the end of the pure shareholder value doctrine?
- 45. FT 1/9/2020
- 46. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ The complexity to define the concept ▪ The complexity to regulate (taxonomy, MIFID, CRR,…) ▪ The difficulty to comply (SFDR art 8 or 9) ▪ The challenge to comply (greenwashing and reputation) ▪ The cost of transition ▪ A challenge that will not go away easily 46
- 47. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ CBDC 47
- 48. Chaotic developments and experiments • “CBDC’s would have implications for financial intermediation and would need careful design and implementation; but our analysis suggests the impacts on bank desintermedion and lending could be manageable for the banking sector” (BIS, september 2021) • What is the vision?
- 49. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ CBDC ▪ MICA ▪ Currency or asset? ▪ New regulation 49
- 51. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ CBDC ▪ MICA ▪ Currency or asset? ▪ New regulation ▪ The end or the start? 51
- 52. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ CBDC ▪ MICA ▪ Additional banking regulation still coming 52
- 53. 53
- 54. EUROPEAN AGENDA AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR ▪ ESG ▪ CBDC ▪ MICA ▪ Additional banking regulation still coming ▪ Monetary policy and TPI 54
- 55. 55
- 56. 56 Return to Keynes •“If we consistently act on the optimistic hypothesis, this hypothesis will tend to be realised; whilst by acting on the pessimistic hypothesis we can keep ourselves for ever in the pit of want.” 8 November 1931
- 57. THANK YOU!