Oracle continues to improve the features and functionality their core products and Hyperion Planning is no exception. The Predictive Planning feature was released with Hyperion Planning version 11.1.2.2 in 2012 but how many companies have had a chance to implement it yet? Most have been busy upgrading existing applications or building out basic Planning applications. Many companies probably think that implementing another feature will be difficult, costly, and an administrative nightmare. Not so! During this webinar we will discuss the features of the Predictive Planning module including installation, settings, and using it to make predictions. We will demonstrate in a Planning application the use of the module from building the forms to using them within Excel with the add-in. Attendees will learn about the module, its features, implementation steps, and how users may use it during a planning cycle without difficulty, great cost, or nightmares for the administrators.

1. www.finitsolutions.com
Getting the Most Out of EPM:
Predictive Planning:
What? When? How?
August 22, 2014
Cindy Eichner
ceichner@finitsolutions.com

2. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
www.finitsolutions.com
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• Company founded in 2002.
• 70+ employees in 20+ states (mostly
East Coast, South, and Midwest)
• 80+ HFM Clients
• Recognized as the Market Leader in
ARM/FCM
• Recognized as the World Leader in
FDM Project Work and FDM
Customizations
• 50+ Planning / Essbase Clients
• Finit has managed many of the
largest EPM projects in the U.S.
(including the largest roll-out of HFM
in North America)
• Our employees are generally CPA’s,
MBA’s, and have extensive Hyperion
Product and Financial Reporting
backgrounds
• Implementation Services
• Full cycle implementations
• Infrastructure and Data Services
• Project / Program Management
• Product Upgrades
• Redesign / Enhancements
• Dedicated Support – Finit Answers
• Access to Hyperion SME’s (Dedicated
support team and guaranteed
response times)
• Customer Service Focus
• Flexible Time and Material support
packages with a ‘Pay as you Go’
option
• Technical and Admin / Functional
Support
• Contact Greg Barrett
(gbarrett@finitsolutions.com) for info
Finit Overview

3. www.finitsolutions.com
Finit Solutions Introduction
Finit as a company:
Who we are…. Why? How?

4. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
WHY is Finit Here?
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• Making and delivering personalized financial reporting
solutions and experiences.
• Listening, questioning, and analyzing
• Building relationships - not company to company -
person to person
• We are Makers and Doers

5. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
HOW do we achieve our beliefs?
Running Finit like a Family
• Investment in our Employees
• All owners actively involved in
the business
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• No debt or external owners
• Focus on the client; not profitability
• Employees; no subcontractors
• Compensation model based on client satisfaction

6. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Finit Values
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• The values on which we ask you to provide
consultant feedback:

7. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Finit’s Client Service
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Our values, culture and approach to becoming a
trusted advisor to clients has led to 100% customer
success for every Finit client (200+) and for every
Oracle Hyperion project (400+).

8. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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•
Some Finit Clients

9. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
About the Presenter
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Cindy Eichner
ceichner@finitsolutions.com
• Director of Finit’s Planning and
Essbase Practice
• Delivering performance management
solutions for over 30 years while
specializing in Hyperion products for
over 17 years
• Certified implementation specialist
• Essbase
• Hyperion Planning
• Hyperion Financial Management (HFM)
• Hyperion Data Relationship Management
(DRM)
• Frequent speaker at KScope

10. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Questions and Answers

11. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Agenda
• What is it?
• When to use it
• How to use it
• Installation
• Forms
• User activities
• Demonstration
• Questions and Answers

12. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning: What?
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• Optional extension to the Smart View Excel add-in
for Hyperion Planning
• Sophisticated time-series statistical techniques
through Crystal Ball
• Simple roll out
• Input forms with historical periods and future
periods in valid format
• Users run the predictions and choose what to
paste and/or save or compare to

13. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Crystal Ball Predictor
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• Predictive Planning includes most of the
functionality of Crystal Ball Predictor
• Originally designed to work with spreadsheet
data; i.e. perfect for Smart View
• Cannot be used with forms on the web but forms
are necessary to run predictions
• Predictions vary significantly depending upon the
options selected and amount of history

14. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning Forecast Methods
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• ARIMA Time-series Forecasting
• Classic Time-series Forecasting
• Non-seasonal
• Single Moving Average (SMA)
• Double Moving Average (DMA)
• Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)
• Double Exponential Smoothing (DES)
• Seasonal
• Seasonal Additive
• Seasonal Multiplicative
• Holt-Winters’ Additive
• Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative

15. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
ARIMA Time-series Forecasting
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• Autoregressive integrated moving average
• Also known as the Box-Jenkins methodology
• Steps taken:
• Model identification and selection
• Estimation of autoregressive (AR), integration or
differencing (I), and moving average (MA) parameters
• Model checking
• May be used in conjunction with seasonal and
non-seasonal data

16. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting
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• Single Moving Average (SMA)
• Averages last several periods
resulting in a straight, flat line forecast
• Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality
• Double Moving Average (DMA)
• Applies the moving average to
historical data and the projected
data resulting in a straight, sloped-line forecast
• Best for data with a trend but no seasonality

17. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting
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• Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)
• Weights all historical data giving
more weight to recent data
resulting in straight, flat-line forecasts
• Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality
• Double Exponential Smoothing (DES)
• Weights the historical data and
the projected data resulting in
a straight, sloped-line forecast
• Best for data with a trend but no seasonality

18. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Classic Seasonal Forecasting
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• Seasonal Additive
• Adds a seasonal adjustment to the
forecast level resulting in a curved
forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes
• Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does
not increase over time
• Seasonal Multiplicative
• Multiplies a seasonal adjustment by the forecast level
resulting in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal
changes
• Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does
increase or decrease over time

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Classic Seasonal Forecasting
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• Holt-Winters’ Additive
• Adds the seasonal factor to the trended
forecast resulting in a curved seasonal forecast
• Best for data with trend and seasonality that does not
increase over time
• Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative
• Multiplies the trended forecast by the seasonality resulting
in a curved forecast showing seasonal changes
• Best for data with trend and seasonality that increases
over time

20. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Building a Plan or Forecast
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• Planning cycles
• Budget, Annual Operating Plan, Forecasts, LRP
• Planning techniques/methodologies
• Bottom-up
• Top-down
• Zero Based
• Targets
• Allocations
• Rolling

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Predictive Planning: When?
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• What do users do now?
• Look at history
• Look at trends
• Adjust based upon changes to different factors
• Build and link workbooks
• Use drivers like rates and ratios
• Back into numbers
• Allocate
• Gut feel
• Guess!
• Predictive Planning can help!

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Predictive Planning: When?
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• Use it to create a plan
• Often used to validate plans
• What kind of data can be predicted?
• Sales
• Costs
• Expenses
• Units
• Headcount
• Anything!
• It is an optional feature

23. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning: How?
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• Version 11.1.2.2 or later of Hyperion Planning and
Smart View
• Security Roles
• Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In
• Create valid forms
• Settings
• Make predictions
• View and analyze the results

24. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Security Roles
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• Users must be assigned at least two roles:
• Planner
• Ad Hoc User
• Set up data forms by those with at least one of
these roles:
• Administrator
• Interactive User

25. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In
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• Download the Client Installers zip file
• Extract the files

26. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In
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• Both 32-bit and 64-bit are available depending
upon the version of MS Office installed

27. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In
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• Run the PredictivePlanning.exe or
PredictivePlanning-x64.exe and follow the
prompts

28. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In
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• Open a valid form in Smart View
• “Predict” button should be available on the
Planning ribbon

29. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Create Valid Forms
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• A Time axis with Year, Period, or both
• Neither Year nor Period can be on the opposite
axis
• A series axis with something other than time
• Scenario and Version may be on either axis
• Forms cannot be empty
• No ad hoc forms

30. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Valid Forms

31. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Valid Form

32. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning Ribbon
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• Run  View  Analyze

33. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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• Data Source and historical date range
• Map Names: data series to scenarios/versions
• Historical, Comparison, and Prediction scenarios
• Member Selection
• Lowest, highest, or all levels
• Options
Run: Set Up Data Form

34. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Set Up Data Form: Data Source

35. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Historical Data -> Forecasting Accuracy
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• Should have twice as much historical data as
prediction points
• For example, two years of historical data to predict
one year
• At least two complete seasonal cycles should be
available to detect seasonality
• Missing values are interpolated
• Outliers are normalized
• Too many missing values or outliers will result in
an error or warning

36. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Set Up Data Form: Map Names

37. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Data Series
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• Historical
• Required
• Comparison
• Optional
• Predictions
• Optional
• Base
• Best
• Worse
• Can automatically paste into existing scenarios

38. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Set Up Data Form: Member Selection

39. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Bottom-up vs. Top-down Predictions
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• Bottom-up uses lowest level data
• Most accurate
• Top-down uses upper level members
• For forms built to push data down
• Useful when detailed historical data is not available
• Full predictions choose all members
• Can skip read only members

40. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Set Up Data Form: Options

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Prediction Options
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• Seasonality (automatic is the default)
• If seasonality occurs over a year and the form has
quarters then enter 4 periods for manual settings
• Forecasting methodologies (default is all 3)
• Error measure (RMSE is the default)
• Prediction periods (based on form is default)
• Prediction periods should be less than half of history
• Prediction Interval (2.5% and 97.5% is default)
• Defines the range for best and worst case

42. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Run: Set Up Data Form: Set Default
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• Only Administrators or Interactive Users can set
application and form defaults
• Use the Set Default button
• Users can override the defaults
• If defaults are not set then the factory defaults are
used
• Individual form defaults take precedence over
application defaults
• Set application defaults first

43. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Predict

44. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Run: Predict

45. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictions Accuracy
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• Accuracy value is 100% minus the mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE)
• Accuracy ranges from 0 to 100%
• 90 to 100%: Good
• 80 to 90%: Fair
• 0 to 80%: Poor
• Measures the quality of the predictions and not
the accuracy of the predictions
• Accuracy measures the ability to pick up strong
patterns in the historical data

46. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
View: Comparison Views
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• Chart displayed by default
• Data and statistics may also
be viewed
• Views may be created and changed
• Comparison data series selections in the Map
Names section of Set up Data Form results in
comparison views
• Chart preferences
may be selected

47. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Chart Preferences
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• Predictions shown in charts by default
• Highlight seasonality
• Highlight missing values and outliers
• Show separator between past / future data
• Show current view name in chart
• 3D chart
• Transparency
• Gridlines
• Legend

48. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze
• Filter Results
• Prediction status
• Prediction accuracy
• Error measure
• Paste Results
• Current, all, filtered, selected members
• From series to scenario/version on form
• Entire range or selected periods
• Create Report
• Extract Data

49. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Filter Results

50. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Paste Results

51. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Create Report

52. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Create Report

53. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Extract Data

54. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Analyze: Extract Data

55. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Demonstration

56. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Methods - Seasonal

57. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Methods – Non-seasonal

58. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
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Methods - All

59. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?
Predictive Planning
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• Simple to implement
• Flexible
• Optional
• Can be used to create plans
• Or to validate plans
• Powerful
• Modifying default settings requires advanced
knowledge

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Thank You for attending!
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Past Webinars:
http://www.finitsolutions.com/webinar.html
Presenter
Cindy Eichner
ceichner@finitsolutions.com
General Questions
Greg Barrett
gbarrett@finitsolutions.com
Joe Mizerk
jmizerk@finitsolutions.com
Questions?
Email us for a copy of the
slides or link to the recording
insights@finitsolutions.com