3. OVERVIEW
Global Demand for Corn and Oilseeds Has Been Growing as Finite Acres
Compete to Meet Feed and Fuel Needs
FOCUS: DEMAND
Consumption is increasing reflecting greater global demand for bio-fuels and for feed for increased
protein requirements in markets such as China
U.S. Corn Use
WORLD CONSUMPTION OF CORN AND OILSEEDS
Fuel Alcohol = 25% CAGR
METRIC TONS (IN MILLIONS)
OILSEEDS = 5.6% CAGR CORN = 4% CAGR
1200
1000
7%
19% 18%
800
19%
600
12%
14%
400
60%
51%
200
0
2006 = 11.6B bu
2001 = 9.8B bu
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Feed
WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION
Food & Industrial
WORLD OILSEEDS CONSUMPTION
Exports
Fuel Alcohol
Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and USDA
3
4. OVERVIEW
Opportunity in Renewable Fuels is Expected to Accelerate Demand for
Corn And Oilseeds Beyond the End of the Decade
U.S. & BRAZIL ETHANOL OUTLOOK
ETHANOL
30 45
ASSUMPTION
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
40
MILLIONS OF ACRES
25
• MTBE replacement by
35
2010 is the base case
20 30
• Incremental yield
25
gains through
15
20
technological
10 15
innovations allow
further substitution
10
5
5
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CORN
U.S.
SUGARCANE
BRAZIL
BIODIESEL
4 20
GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK
ASSUMPTION
18
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
MILLIONS OF ACRES
3.5
16
• In EU, biodiesel to
3
14
represent 5.75% of
2.5 12
transport fuels by
2 10
2010 with the US
8
1.5 growing up to 2%
6
1
4
0.5 2
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BIODIESEL PALM
SOYBEAN
RAPESEED & CANOLA
4
Source: Proexporter Network, Pro Mar And Monsanto Estimates
5. OVERVIEW
Advent of New Technologies Has Helped Reduce Yield Volatility
USDA U.S. CORN YIELD
160
140
AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC)
120
100
80
60
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1995-2006: YIELD STABILITY
1975-1995: SIGNIFICANT YIELD VARIABILITY
• With the advent of improved
• High variability in per-acre yield
genetics and biotech traits,
• Yield deviation as high as 25 percent from average yield
there is greater consistency in
trend
yield because traits insulate
• Variability largely a result of influence of discrete annual
farmers from extremes of
events, including weather patterns and insect infestations
weather and insect infestations
5
6. OVERVIEW
Farmers Buy Yield; Our R&D Approach Oriented
Around Meeting That Customer Need
R&D APPROACH
PERCENT OF GENETIC
YIELD GENETIC POTENTIAL
FARM APPROACH
GAIN PRESERVED
= X
Farmer’s Purchase Inherent yield possible from the seed Amount of yield potential
Decision
BREEDING
GERMPLASM protected
=
SEED
• Starting point of all
agriculture; farmers
maximize genetics in
seed for yield
• 60% of farmers select • Germplasm library
• >2,000 genetic
seed first, then • Monsanto is the first
assembled from markers used by
decide on biotech
company to develop
36 programs in 12
traits breeders for corn
and commercialize
countries
X
today
complete above-
• >100 breeding • 50% of breeding ground, below-ground
research centers population comes insect-control and
worldwide from inter-company,
TECHNOLOGY weed-control traits
inter-country
crosses
• Technology is used to
protect and maximize • Molecular breeding
yield potential of seed improves genetic
potential by 2X
versus conventional
breeding
6
7. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
Corn Market Share Gains Yet To Fully Reflect Power of
Molecular Breeding Application
MOLECULAR-BREEDING HYBRIDS
AS A PERCENT OF BRANDED
Corn UNITS SOLD IN COMMERCIAL
25% CORN PORTFOLIO
SITUATION:
12%
2007 BRANDED U.S. MARKET
IN COMMERCIAL CORN PORTFOLIO
PERCENT OF BRANDED UNITS SOLD
SHARE: > 22%
• Conventional breeding
20%
improves genetic gain
10%
U.S. MARKET SHARE
on average by 1.5% per DEKALB AND ASGROW
U.S. BRAND MARKET
year SHARE
8%
15%
OUTLOOK:
6%
• Molecular breeding
10%
improves genetic
potential by 2X versus
4%
conventional breeding
5%
• By 2010, over 12% of
2%
commercial portfolio will
be derived from
molecular breeding
0% 0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
CYCLE 1: CYCLE 2: CYCLE 3:
INTEGRATION OF APPLICATION OF MAB SELECTION POWER OF
GLOBAL GERMPLASM TO SELECTION MOLECULAR BREEDING
• BY 2006, FIRST MOLECULAR
• ASSEMBLED 36 MAJOR • PREDICTIVE
BREEDING HYBRIDS ENTER
CORN BREEDING COMBINATIONS ALLOW
U.S. COMMERCIAL
PROGRAMS IN 12 MORE EFFICIENT
PROGRESSION
PORTFOLIO
COUNTRIES BREEDING
OF BREEDING
TECHNOLOGY • EU IS ROUGHLY 2 YEARS
• FIRST INTRA-COMPANY • APPLY MOLECULAR
IN THE BEHIND THE U.S. FOLLOWED
CROSSES BREEDING TO TROPICAL
COMMERCIAL BY LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA
MARKETS, SUCH AS
PORTFOLIO PACIFIC
BRAZIL AND ASIA
7
8. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
By Delivering Better Yielding Products, DEKALB on Track to
Gain More Than 12 Share Points in Six Years
DEKALB SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2007F
YIELD CREATION CREATION + PRESERVATION
Combining germplasm library and breeding capability, Availability of stacked biotech
focus is on boosting the inherent genetic potential in traits now preserves a greater
the seed percentage genetic potential
25%
+6 share
points
+6 share
20% 22+%
points 19%
U.S. SHARE
15%
16%
14%
13%
10% 12%
10%
5%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F
TOTAL U.S. PLANTED
TRIPLE-STACK ACRES -- -- -- -- 1.3 6.0 16.0
(ACRES IN MILLIONS)
DEKALB TRIPLE-STACK
-- -- -- -- 8% 20% 40%
TRAIT PENETRATION
8
9. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
Reflecting Farmers’ Yield Orientation, Performance Loyalty
Is Replacing Historical Notions of Brand Loyalty
TOP PURCHASE DRIVER FOR FARMERS PLANTING NEW DEKALB ACRES IS BETTER YIELD1
65% of farmers planting a
higher percentage of their 2007 DEKALB
65%
CUSTOMER
2007 acres in DEKALB cited BASE
“good yield” as their primary
consideration 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
NEW DEKALB CUSTOMERS ARE COMING FROM OTHER NATIONAL BRANDS1
Almost 60% of increasing or
2007 DEKALB
59%
new DEKALB users reported
CUSTOMER
that their additional DEKALB BASE
acres replaced other national
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
brands
From other brands Not replacing other brands
From national brands
FARMERS BUY PERFORMANCE AND ARE NOT WILLING TO SWITCH AWAY FROM SUPERIOR
YIELD POTENTIAL1
More than 80% of farmers
2007 DEKALB
surveyed indicated they
83%
CUSTOMER
would not switch away from BASE
DEKALB if another seed
brand offered the same set 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
of biotech traits Don’t know Would switch
Would not switch
1. Market research: based on a sample of 500 corn growers completed in March 2007
9
10. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
Trait Stacking is Optimal Choice to Protect the Yield Inherent in
Seed from Stress, Bugs and Weeds
Rain Shelter Trial Corn Plot at A Monsanto Research Site
Yield = 198.1
Yield =
Yield = 113.7 bu/ac bu/ac
Yield = 150 bu/ac
94 bu/ac
YieldGard Corn Borer
Roundup YieldGard Corn Borer with YieldGard Plus with
with Roundup Ready
Ready Roundup Ready Corn 2 Roundup Ready Corn 2
Corn 2
Corn 2 + Force insecticide
10
*Yields representative of similar trial. All yield corrected to No. 2 yellow corn.
11. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
Power of Trait Stacking is Accelerating Adoption Rates for All
Corn Traits
160
2007 FRONTLINE 140
UPDATE:
120
TRAIT ACRES IN MILLIONS
With triple-stacks
in strong demand, 100
trait sales have
exceeded early- 80
season estimates
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007F 2010F
2007 FORECAST END-OF-DECADE
U.S. CORN TRAIT ACRES1 2005 ACTUAL 2006 ACTUAL MARKET
INITIAL
(IN MILLIONS) Q2 UPDATE OPPORTUNITY
ESTIMATE
U.S. YIELDGARD
4.1 10 >15 ~19 25-30
ROOTWORM ACRES
U.S.YIELDGARD CORN
32.1 32.3 >32 ~40 50-60
BORER ACRES
U.S. ROUNDUP READY
24.8 32.7 >40 ~50 60
CORN ACRES
1.3 6.0 >10 ~16 25-30
U.S. TRIPLE-STACK ACRES
1. Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.
11
12. R & D PIPELINE
Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Provide Yield Benefit
Coupled With Unsurpassed Weed Control
KEY REGIONS U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
Roundup RReady2Yield AVAILABLE ACRES 70M 60M 35M
Soybeans PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
P R O JE CT
GROWER PERSPECTIVE: ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD UPGRADE
WEED Satisfaction levels of 95%, noting “unsurpassed”
++
++
CONTROL weed control
Yield target for Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans
++
+
YIELD BENEFIT is up to 5 bushel-per-acre improvement over
comparable Roundup Ready soybeans
With no residual issues, Roundup weed control
+
+
FLEXIBILITY system allows for flexibility in annual corn-
soybean rotation
Monsanto has filed for patent protection and
DISEASE licensed other third-party patents relating to
Researching Researching
CONTROL disease control. Testing is continuing to evaluate
potential for control of Asian soybean rust.
Roundup RReady2Yield is a yield trait – up to 5 bu/acre
+ Additive Performance to a yield improvement translates to roughly an average
Farmer’s Operation boost of 10% in farmers’ revenue per acre
12
13. R & D PIPELINE
Future Innovation in Breeding and Biotech Can Change the
Yield Curve
MONSANTO’S
HISTORY AND PROJECTED EVOLUTION OF U.S. CORN YIELD
OPPORTUNITY
(MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL ANALYSIS)
The delta between what is
predicted and what is possible
200 is where opportunity lies
AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC)
Molecular breeding boosts
180
the genetic potential of the
seed
160
Biotech traits protect that
genetic potential for more
140
practical yield
120 Breeding and Biotech come
together to change the
100 curve of yield potential
80
60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F
“
USDA TREND LINE
PROJECTED YIELDS WITH MOLECULAR
BREEDING AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
The corn yield curve is increasing at an accelerated rate due to advances in
Biotechnology … Increased yields allow growers to harvest considerably more corn
without significantly increasing acreage.
-- National Corn Growers Association (NCGA)
13
14. R & D PIPELINE
Yield and Stress Biotech Collaboration with BASF Creates
Enhanced Opportunity in Key Growth Area for Next Decade
LICENSEE BRANDS
MONSANTO
DISOVERY
REGIONAL BRANDS
PROGRAM
INTENSIFIED
YIELD & STRESS BASF
PIPELINE DISCOVERY NATIONAL BRANDS
Collaboration creates PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OF
a new joint pipeline
SUCCESSIVE UPGRADES
focused on stepping
TO CREATE A “FAMILY”
up the volume of
OF PRODUCTS
leads and certainty of
commercial success DISCOVERY DEVELOPMENT COMMERCIALIZATION
in the emerging
category of “yield” • Pairs two separate, but • Greater volume of leads • Broad-licensing approach
traits for corn, complementary discovery and cost sharing reduce allows for products to
soybeans, cotton and
engines risk of failure, increasing reach broadest market
canola
probability of possible, allowing farmers
• Increased rate of
commercial success to choose traits in the
discovery, unlocking more
KEY seed brands they prefer
sources of genes than • Successive upgrades
ADVANTAGES for the greatest
ever before emerge sooner, creating
performance
steady stream of traits in
• With combined effort,
a “product family” in
products should advance
each crop
at faster-than-average
development timelines,
esp. in early-phase
research
14
15. R & D PIPELINE
Eight Projects Already Have Been Contributed for Joint
Development in the Area of Yield and Stress
PHASE III
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV
Advanced
Gene/Trait Identification Proof of Concept Early Development Pre-Launch
Development
12 TO 36
24 TO 48 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS
MONTHS
INDEPENDENT DISCOVERY JOINT-FUNDED DEVELOPMENT
2nd- Generation Drought-tolerant corn
Monsanto Independent Discovery
Program
Drought-tolerant Higher-yielding
Grain yield corn canola
Environmental stress
Water-use Higher-yielding
tolerance
efficiency soybeans
BASF Independent Discovery
soybeans Higher-yielding corn
Program
Drought-tolerant
Yield increase
cotton
Environmental stress
Nitrogen-
tolerance
utilization corn
In addition to 8 projects already contributed to the newly created pipeline, the combined discovery efforts
would create new products and upgrades, which could add six or more new product opportunities over
the lifetime of the collaboration
15
16. R & D PIPELINE
Drought-Tolerant Corn Targeted to Decrease Water
Use and Improve Yields in Drought Conditions
KEY REGIONS U.S. BRAZIL EUROPE
AVAILABLE ACRES 80M 30M 24M
Drought-tolerant corn PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
P R O JE CT
DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN IN THE FIELD
R&D Pipeline FIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006
Drought-tolerant corn
PROJECT CONCEPT:
First-generation drought tolerance is
targeted to minimize uncertainty in farming
LOCATION:
by buffering against the effects of water
Vacaville, California
limitation, primarily in areas of annual water
ACTIVITY:
stress
Monsanto
2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE: researcher checks
performance
Phase 2
2006 STATUS:
indicators in the
field such as
• Yield enhancement demonstrated
chlorophyl content,
again in 2006 under water-stress
ear size, and plant
conditions in U.S.
height
• Lead gene chosen
OBSERVATIONS:
• 2007 trials expected to demonstrate
Confirming third
yield enhancement in multiple
year of field trial
hybrids under dryland conditions
data in U.S.
VALUE CATEGORIES:
RETAIL
$10 - $30/acre
VALUE/ACRE:
16
17. R & D PIPELINE
Drought-Tolerant Corn Targeted to Decrease Water
Use and Improve Yields in Drought Conditions
KEY REGIONS U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE ACRES 80M 30M 6M
Drought-tolerant corn PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
P R O JE CT
2006 TESTING: YIELD IMPROVEMENT OF LEAD EVENT UNDER DROUGHT
STRESS
R&D Pipeline Percent yield difference vs. control
14 7.3% 10.5% 10.9% 23.2% 9.0% In third year field
Drought-tolerant corn
12
VS. CONTROL (BU/ACRE)
testing in U.S.,
PROJECT CONCEPT:
KEY RESULTS
YIELD DIFFERENCE
10 drought-tolerant
leads are
First-generation drought tolerance is 8
NOT TESTED
consistently
targeted to minimize uncertainty in farming
6
delivering higher
by buffering against the effects of water
4
limitation, primarily in areas of annual water yields compared
stress with controls
2
2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE: under drought-
0
stressed
2004 2005 2006
Phase 2
2006 STATUS:
conditions
Hybrid 1: 2004, 4 locations; 2005 5 locs; 2006, 1 loc (20 reps)
Hybrid 2: 2004, not tested; 2005, 5 locs, 2006, 3 locs
• Yield enhancement demonstrated
again in 2006 under water-stress SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS
conditions in U.S.
First leads show
KEY OPPORTUINITY
• Lead gene chosen benefit under water-
IRRIGATED
• 2007 trials expected to demonstrate stress conditions
yield enhancement in multiple WESTERN First product
hybrids under dryland conditions DRYLAND
targeted at western
VALUE CATEGORIES: dryland market
STABILITY
RETAIL
$10 - $30/acre
VALUE/ACRE:
Low annual High annual
precipitation precipitation
Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
17
18. R & D PIPELINE
Early Field Testing Indicates Nitrogen Utilization Corn Offers
Yield Benefits in Both Limited and Normal Nitrogen Conditions
KEY REGIONS U.S. BRAZIL EUROPE
Nitrogen utilization
corn
AVAILABLE ACRES 80M 30M 24M
PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
NITROGEN CONTROL TESTING
R&D Pipeline
Nitrogen Utilization Corn
PROJECT CONCEPT:
LOCATION:
Targets ways that corn plants can use
Morrisonville,
nitrogen more efficiently, exploring
Illinois and
the potential to boost yield under
Jerseyville, Illinois
normal nitrogen conditions or
ACTIVITY:
stabilize yield in low nitrogen
Field control
environments
testing to measure
2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE: nitrogen uptake
and to screen
Phase 1
2006 STATUS:
genes for nitrogen
utilization
• Second year proof-of-concept
testing confirmed 2005 lead OBSERVATIONS:
genes across multiple Under normal
nitrogen, corn has
locations and nitrogen rates
good chlorophyll
and added new gene
content, normal
candidates for further testing ear development
VALUE CATEGORIES: and higher yield
RETAIL
$10 - $30/acre
VALUE/ACRE:
Limited Nitrogen Normal Nitrogen
18
19. R & D PIPELINE
Early Field Testing Indicates Nitrogen Utilization Corn Offers
Yield Benefits in Both Limited and Normal Nitrogen Conditions
KEY REGIONS U.S. BRAZIL EUROPE
AVAILABLE ACRES 80M 30M 24M
Nitrogen Utilization PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
Corn
2006 TESTING: 2006 FIELD RESULTS CONFIRM CONTINUED
R&D Pipeline PERFORMANCE OF LEADS IDENTIFIED IN 2005
Nitrogen Utilization Corn LEAD NITROGEN UTILIZATION GENE
(ACROSS 3 LOCATIONS: IL AND IA)
PROJECT CONCEPT:
175
Targets ways that corn plants can use
nitrogen more efficiently, exploring the
170
potential to boost yield under normal
nitrogen conditions or stabilize yield in low 165 EVENT 1
YIELD PER ACRE
nitrogen environments
EVENT 2
160
2006 PERFORMANCE UPDATE:
KEY RESULTS
CONTROL
155
Phase 1
2006 STATUS:
150 Reduction in
• Second year proof-of-concept Applied Nitrogen
145
testing confirmed 2005 lead genes
140
across multiple locations and
0 40 80 180
nitrogen rates and added new
gene candidates for further testing NITROGEN INPUT: LBS/ACRE
VALUE CATEGORIES:
RETAIL
Reading right to left, what scientists will look for to
$10 - $30/acre
VALUE/ACRE:
establish proof of concept is when Nitrogen application
is decreased, the total yield per acre remains stable. In
2006 data, the 2 events show no yield drop off as the
Nitrogen application levels decrease from 180 lbs/ac to
40 lbs/ac
19
20. DEMONSTRATED PERFORMANCE
Monsanto’s Seeds-and-Traits Growth Reflects Leadership and
Innovation
MONSANTO PERFORMANCE VS. COMMODITY CYCLES:
2001-2007F
2 $3,000
CAGR for
Monsanto’s
1.8
$2,500
INDEXED COMMODITY PRICE1
Seeds &
SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT
Genomics
1.6
$2,000 segment for 2001-
(IN MILLIONS)
2007F is 26%
1.4
$1,500
1.2
During the same
$1,000
1 time period,
actual commodity
$500
0.8 prices deviated
by as much as
0.6 $0 30% below the
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F price trend line
and 50%+ above
CORN SOYBEANS COTTON SEEDS & GENOMICS GP
the price trend
line
1. Commodity price per unit, indexed – base year: 2000; Corn and soybeans: price per bushel; Cotton:
dollars per pound (Source: USDA)
2. 2007F: Reflects commodity prices as of March 2007; Reflects forecasted gross profit contribution
20