The age of scale

THE AGE OF SCALE

Al Arab‟ya News Channel

Michael Edson
@mpedson
slideshare.net/edsonm
Burj Dubai Aerial Shot 103 By Carter S’ http://www.flickr.com/photos/sgtcaboose/3222454514/ CC BY-NC 2.0

THE AGE OF SCALE

[ Speaking today as a private citizen, not representing the Smithsonian ]

What, exactly, are we doing here?

Burj Dubai Aerial Shot 103 By Carter S’ http://www.flickr.com/photos/sgtcaboose/3222454514/ CC BY-NC 2.0

Not here

Here

Your organizations have
public service missions.

Beeld en Geluid
Media Wisdom
“…the whole of knowledge, skills
and mentality that citizens use to
consciously, critically and actively
take part in a complex, changing
and fundamentally mediatized
world.”

http://www.beeldengeluid.nl/en/about


http://fiatifta.org/awards/

1 in 3 Americans can
neither name a single
Supreme Court justice
or identify the basic
tenets of scientific
reasoning…

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2012/08/20/most-americans-cant-name-a-u-s-supreme-court-justice-survey-says/?mod=e2tw
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind04/c7/c7s2.htm

25% percent of the
population have no
friends or emotional
ties to people in their
communities

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/02/weekinreview/02fountain.html?_r=1&

28% percent of the
population don’t know
their next-door
neighbors

http://www.pewresearch.org/daily-number/do-you-know-your-neighbors/

19% of Americans
didn’t read a book last
year, in any format
(print, audio book, ebook)

http://libraries.pewinternet.org/2012/04/04/part-2-the-general-reading-habits-of-americans/

C02 in the atmosphere
is nearly 400ppm

http://c02now.org/

At least 16,928 species
are threatened with
extinction
•
•
•
•
•

21% of mammals,
12% of birds,
31% of reptiles,
30% of amphibians
37% of fish

http://www.facingthefuture.org/GlobalIssuesResources/GlobalIssuesTours/Biodiversity/tabid/506/Default.aspx?gclid=CIGFoO6t7ICFcaiPAodLjIAaA

63 armed conflicts

http://conflictmap.org/

42 million refugees

http://www.unhcr.org/4a2fd52412d.html

42 million refugees
925 million people hungry


42 million refugees
1.4 billion people <$1.25 a day or less


42 million refugees
22,000 children die each year from poverty


42 million refugees
850 million people lack access to basic literacy
(2/3 are women)


42 million refugees
850 million people lack access to basic literacy
(2/3 are women)
100 million primary age kids are not in school


Globalization
Do-it-yourself biology
Genetic engineering
Trans-humanism
Artificial intelligence…

Globalism
Do-it-yourself biology
Genetic engineering
Trans-humanism
Artificial intelligence…
Fatty food
Sore feet
Male pattern baldness

We are racing, lonely and uninformed, into a
future we can barely comprehend.

We are racing, lonely and uninformed, into a
future we can barely comprehend.
We need to use every tool at our disposal to
create the best possible outcomes for society.

Given these challenges,
are you getting enough
done?

We need to re-think
how we think about

SCOPE
SCALE
SPEED

WE FORGED OUR DREAMS IN SIMPLER TIMES

WHEN SUCCESS MEANT COLLECTIONS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kulturarvsprojektet/6498637005/sizes/l/in/set-72157629730180465/

AND STAFF

http://www.euscreen.eu/play.jsp?id=EUS_F40CA73F75EB43FCBE6FCAAB9BF7D056

1998
$70,000,000 budget

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120815/

Versus…

…3 graphic designers
Team Compost headed out to Omaha
Beach for 4 days armed with a Z1
camera, a pop up greenscreen, some
soldier uniforms and 2 rubber rifles (we
couldn’t afford 3), and begun the process
of covering the beach (with camera on
the cliff top), and re-enacting the
veterans moving accounts. When back in
London (and back in our real day job) we
began to piece together …turning the 3
of us into the invading U.S. army.
6 Weeks later the work was completed
and provides a moving insight to the U.S
veterans memories of storming Omaha
beach

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRS9cpOMYv0

The broadcast model is broken
Resources

Outcomes
An “organization”

The broadcast model is incomplete
Resources

Outcomes
An “organization”


Not fast enough
Big enough
Not smart enough


“We are trying to pour the Web back into the
broadcast model”

A Smithsonian Astrophysicist told me
“We won’t even consider a new project unless it
returns

10x better performance than the last one.”

10x improvement lets us see
10x farther back to the beginning of the universe.”

returns
“Every

The Crab Nebula (composite) http://www.chandra.harvard.edu/photo/2013/w49b/

National Gallery of Art, Washington, D.C.

Annual attendance
National Gallery of Art
1978 through 2011

Annual attendance
National Gallery of Art
1978 through 2011

-1% growth
over 33 years

People who don’t visit the NGA

People who do visit the NGA

How you feel about this depends
On what you think your mission is
and how you think about scale.
But either way…

How you feel about this depends
On what you think your mission is
and how you think about scale.
But either way…

There’s a lot of room at the top
--Business proverb

“We won’t even consider a new project unless it
returns

10x better performance than the last one.”

Hypothetical Project X, starts where
the National Gallery of Art started,
grows at 10% a year for 33 years

Let’s adjust the vertical scale
(Zoom out to 500 million)

10% annual growth gives you
102 million more visitors/year
after 33 years

Wikipedia Unique visits…

Let’s adjust the vertical scale
(Zoom out to 6 billion)

10 million
100 million
1 billion people

Oops! Wrong scale! This is actually
Wikipedia Unique visits …A MONTH!
(Let’s adjust it to unique visits/year)

Wikipedia Unique visits!
(…extrapolated to 12 months, an
approximation)

2.4 billion Internet users
(34% of world population)

2.4 billion Internet users
(34% of world population)

4.6 million
National Gallery of Art visitors

…A 2.395 billion
person difference

6.8 billion mobile
phone subscribers

If visits followed
Moore’s Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Moore’s Law
via Ray Kurzweil
By 2019 a $1,000 PC will
have as much computing
power as the human brain

Moore’s Law
By 2029 a $1,000 PC will
be 1,000 times more
powerful than the human
brain

Moore’s Law
By 2045…
A $1,000 PC will be a billion
times more powerful
(“intelligent”) than the
brains of every human
being on earth, combined

By 2045…
A $1,000 PC will be a billion times
more powerful than the brains of
every human being on
earth, combined

A global “audience”
of collaborators
(individuals, learners, fans, community)
of this scale was not imaginable to an
organization 30 years ago…

108.4 million viewers for 2013 Super Bowl

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mbk/2241960032/ (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)
2013 super bowl: 108.4 million viewers. http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-super-bowl-ratings-20130204,0,4439351.story

1,341,882,399 views of Gangnam Style

http://www.youtube.com/user/officialpsy

1,799,601,912 views
1,341,882,399 views of Gangnam Style

http://blog.ted.com/2012/11/13/ted-reaches-its-billionth-video-view/

http://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-1billion-monthly-users-2013-3
http://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-1-billion-monthly-users-2013-3

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/04/technology/facebook-billion-users/

Wikipedia 2 billion edits
Wikipedia 1.8 billion edits

http://toolserver.org/~emijrp/wikimediacounter/

874,172 people taking
part worldwide

https://www.zooniverse.org/

Over 900,000 registered users
have contributed 14 million edits
and 1.6 billion locations

http://www.openstreetmap.org/ | http://wiki.openstreetmap.org/wiki/Stats | http://www.openstreetmap.org/browse/changeset/14947636

April, 2013
Over 900,000 registered users
have contributed over
1.6 billion locations

Now, over 1,350,000 registered
users have contributed over
2 billion locations

http://www.openstreetmap.org/ | http://wiki.openstreetmap.org/wiki/Stats | http://www.openstreetmap.org/browse/changeset/14947636

http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/edinburghs-coursera-based-moocs-attract-300000/2001288.article

“For every student physically studying in Edinburgh,
there are now ten online learners.”

http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/edinburghs-coursera-based-moocs-attract-300000/2001288.article

http://www.campusmoviefest.com/

20,000 films
6,000 Distinguished Filmmakers Network
http://www.campusmoviefest.com/

http://www.slideshare.net/RealBranding/10-million-in-10-weeks-what-stanford-learned-building-facebook-apps-424542

http://www.kickstarter.com/year/2012

In 2012…
2,241,475 people
from 177 counties
pledged $319,786,629
to support 18,109 projects

http://www.kickstarter.com/year/2012

This order of
magnitude is visible
at web scale

http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm

“without users,
our shelves are empty”
Brewster Kahle

“The people who are supposed
to be doing universal access
to knowledge, and are getting
$12b a year to do it, are not
getting the job done”
Brewster Kahle

1.6 million members
81 million books
96 million tags
2.1 million reviews
3.9 million talk/comments

User “ending2012” has
added/cataloged 65,535 books

Institutions were important
when the catalog needed
a hard drive “the size of
your desk” …

Tim Spalding

Institutions were important
when the catalog needed
a hard drive “the size of
your desk” … But now it
fits on a thumb drive.

Tim Spalding

“Library is not an
institutional thing:
anyone who has a large
collection of books has
a library.”
Tim Spalding

IS SCALE JUST FOR BIG ORGANIZATIONS?

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCO9Q5_D6tItyoilmDogexng

Public.Resource.Org is a small non-profit that helps make
public/government information available to all.
In one project, they ask US government entities to send
them old analog videos, which they rip and put online.


20 million views on YouTube
20 million views on Internet Archive
MORE VIDEO than all but 3 U.S.A government agencies
“Me in my spare time and a couple of volunteers”
--Carl Malamud


http://smarthistory.khanacademy.org/

”A free, not-for-profit, multi-media webbook designed as a dynamic enhancement
(or even substitute) for the traditional art
history textbook.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rebeccataylor/smarthistory_b_785154.html


512 videos
247 essays
6 million visits
Viewed in 200 countries
Tech budget of $700 + two laptops


http://www.youtube.com/user/smarthistoryvideos

”As professors, we reach 200 students a
semester.” -- Beth Harris
Last semester, Smarthistory content
reached 750,000 users

http://www.youtube.com/user/smarthistoryvideos

1 million students /month
~200,000 videos /day

“But what we’re going to talk
about is how we’re going to
get to the next level”

Salman Khan, Kahn Academy

http://www.ted.com/talks/salman_khan_let_s_use_video_to_reinvent_education.html

OTHER KINDS OF SCALE

Scale has a Z axis
The Z axis, depth, is for
emotion and impact on
individuals.

Z

Y

X

OTHER KINDS OF SCALE

Scale has a Z axis
The Z axis, depth, is for
emotion and impact on
individuals.
It scales, not in quantities of
individuals served, but in how
deeply we affect them.

Z

Y

X

http://metrotimes.com/arts/behind-bars-with-the-bard-1.1371708

“Inmates who have been involved in the
program say they experience a profound
personal growth through it, first by
recognizing the depths of their own
emotions, then by connecting with fellow
prisoners through the camaraderie of
sharing a stage.”
http://metrotimes.com/arts/behind-bars-with-the-bard-1.1371708

AND MISSIONS CAN BE SHAPED
THE Z AXIS
IN DRAMATIC
Can you deepen the experiences NEW WAYS
of the people you already serve?

http://www.yongestreetmedia.ca/features/humanbooks1208.aspx

IN DRAMATIC NEW WAYS


IN DRAMATIC NEW WAYS

“The Toronto Public Library held its
first Human Library event at five
branches on Nov. 6, attracting
more than 200 users who checked
out the likes of a police officer, a
comedian, a sex-worker-turnedclub-owner, a model and a
survivor of cancer, homelessness
and poverty.”

“Who are the users of archival content?
Well, our users are not just browsing through, looking for
media consumption.

As soon as they encounter archival
content, they become researchers.”

Peder Andrén, Swedish National
Archives, APENet (Archives Portal Europe)

SPECIAL KINDS OF SCALE

0 to 1

http://channelviewpublications.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/education-and-literacy-in-ethiopia/

SPECIAL KINDS OF SCALE

0 to 1

Going from the total
absence of something to
the basic presence of it
is its own kind of scale.
http://channelviewpublications.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/education-and-literacy-in-ethiopia/

The Metropolitan Opera: Live in HD

http://www.metoperafamily.org/en/news-and-features1/press-releases/releases/The-Met-Live-in-HDs-2012-13-Season-Features/
Photo by Lee Eiseman © Boston Musical Intelligencer (used by permission)

1,700 theaters
54 countries
~12 million tickets

http://www.metoperafamily.org/en/news-and-features1/press-releases/releases/The-Met-Live-in-HDs-2012-13-Season-Features/
Photo by Lee Eiseman © Boston Musical Intelligencer (used by permission)

40,000
students from
133 countries

http://chronicle.com/article/Teaching-to-the-World-From/134068/

“I had played down this kind of teaching as
inevitably a pale reflection of on-campus
learning…
Yet as I got to know some of my students, I
came to feel that the difference was not of the
sort I had imagined.
For most of them, the choice was not between
an online course and a traditional university. It
was, as one student put it, „a choice between
online class versus no class.‟
Mitchell Duneier
http://chronicle.com/article/Teaching-to-the-World-From/134068/

Since 1998 Room to Read has…
Distributed 10 million books
Built 12,000 libraries
Built 3,200 schools

“There are no books for kids in some
languages, so we had to become a selfpublisher,” Wood explains. […]
Room to Read has, so far, published 591 titles
in languages including
Khmer, Nepalese, Zulu, Lao, Xhosa, Chhattisg
arhi, Tharu, Tsonga, Garhwali and Bundeli.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/opinion/sunday/kristof-his-libraries-12000-so-far-change-lives.html

“In 20 years,” [founder John Wood] told
me, “I‟d like to have 100,000
libraries, reaching 50 million kids.


“In 20 years,” [founder John Wood] told
me, “I‟d like to have 100,000
libraries, reaching 50 million kids. Our 50year goal is to reverse the notion that any
child can be told „you were born in the wrong
place at the wrong time and so you will not
get educated.‟ That idea belongs on the
scrapheap of human history.”

CULTURAL IMPOVRISHMENT ISN‟T
JUST A 3RD WORLD THING

IT EXISTS EVERYWHERE

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/dec/10/uk-lost-200-libraries-2012

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/caitlin-moran/libraries-cathedrals-ofo_b_2103362.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false

Everything I am is based on this ugly building on its lonely lawn--lit
up during winter darkness; open in the slashing rain--which
allowed a girl so poor she didn't even own a purse to come in twice
a day and experience actual magic: traveling through time, making
contact with the dead--Dorothy Parker, Stella Gibbons, Charlotte
Brontë, Spike Milligan.

A library in the middle of a community is a cross between an
emergency exit, a life raft and a festival.


No new libraries will be built to replace them. These libraries will be
lost forever.
And, in their place, we will have thousands more public spaces
where you are simply the money in your pocket, rather than the
hunger in your heart. Kids--poor kids--will never know the
fabulous, benign quirk of self-esteem of walking into "their" library
and thinking, "I have read 60 percent of the books in here. I am
awesome." Libraries that stayed open during the Blitz will be closed
by budgets.
A trillion small doors closing.


No new libraries will be built to replace them. These libraries will be
lost forever.
And, in their place, we will have thousands more public spaces
where you are simply the money in your pocket, rather than the
hunger in your heart. Kids--poor kids--will never know the
fabulous, benign quirk of self-esteem of walking into "their" library
and thinking, "I have read 60 percent of the books in here. I am
awesome." Libraries that stayed open during the Blitz will be closed
by budgets.


http://danielsolisblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/cutting-libraries-in-recession-is-like.html

We love our museums, libraries, and archives
We want them to be successful

We love our museums, libraries, and archives
We want them to be successful

We need them to be super successful

PUT THE TOOLS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATION
INTO MORE HANDS

SHARE THE JOY AND MEANING OF ARTISTIC AND
CULTURAL EXPLORATION WITH MORE CITIZENS

DEEPEN ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CHALLENGES
THAT FACE OUR SPECIES

NURTURE THE HABITS OF A CIVIL
AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY

Beeld en Geluid
Media Wisdom
“…the whole of knowledge, skills
and mentality that citizens use to
consciously, critically and actively
take part in a complex, changing
and fundamentally mediatized
world.”

http://www.beeldengeluid.nl/en/about



INTO MORE HANDS








INTO MORE HANDS


This is our job in society… But can we do this

quickly enough and at big enough SCALE
to make a substantial difference in the lives of
Individuals and the fate our our species?




“Anything is scalable”
Larry Page
http://www.wired.com/business/2013/01/ff-qa-larry-page/all/

http://www.wired.com/business/2013/01/ff-qa-larry-page/all/

“Page expects his employees to create
products and services that are 10 times better
than the competition. That means he isn’t
satisfied with discovering a couple of hidden
efficiencies or tweaking code to achieve
modest gains. Thousand-percent improvement
requires rethinking problems entirely, exploring
the edges of what’s technically possible, and
having a lot more fun in the process.”

“Page expects his employees to create
products and services that are 10 times better
than the competition. That means he isn’t
satisfied with discovering a couple of hidden
efficiencies or tweaking code to achieve
modest gains. Thousand-percent improvement
requires rethinking problems entirely, exploring
the edges of what’s technically possible…”

We have all this money, we have all these
people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may
say that Apple only does a very, very small number
of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But
I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these
opportunities in the world to use technology to make
people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking
maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech
companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That
means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.

people’s lives better.scale/boutique” rationale
This “small At Google we’re attacking
maybe 0.1is often usedthatmany archivesall the tech
percent of by space. And to
avoid the challenge of scale and
speed

Larry Page

There’s a working pretty at for them. But
of things, and that’slot of room well the top!
Larry Page

I DON’T WANT LESS OF THE TRADITIONAL OUTPUTS

MORE GLAMS
MORE VISITORS
DEEPER ENGAGEMENT

MORE WEB
MORE PARTICIPATION
BETTER OUTCOMES

WE CAN SUCCEED AT SCALE

And when we do,
new opportunities present themselves…

THANK YOU

Al Arab‟ya News Channel

Michael Edson
@mpedson
Slideshare.net/edsonm

The age of scale

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The age of scale

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