In this presentation hat I gave at our Faber Portfolio day this year I am trying to build a model of how AI, Robotics and Conversational Interfaces will create a Superstack subsuming the current Internet and the majority of the global workforce.
2. The last 10 years…
Booooooring
•The Future from 1999 (Nokia Communicator
anyone?) got evenly distributed
•Apple and Google as Gatekeepers in the App
Economy
•No Oxygen for new Startups
•Yet another Ultra Specific SaaS>
•Everything felt really incremental
3. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of
human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
5. The Ingredients of the “Next
Stage”
1.Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence
6.
7.
8. Pseudo AI
• Parser and
Decision Tree
based
• ELIZA Bots
ANI
• Domain
Specific, ‘real’
AI
• Machine
Learning
• Bots on
Messengers
AGI / ASI
• General Artificial
Intelligence
• Super Artificial Intelligence
(SAI)
• Some incomprehensible
Shit
• Most likely Extinction
1965 2015 2040
9.
10.
11. There are only two more stages for our species:
The Next
The Last
13. The Ingredients of the “Next
Stage”
1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence
2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy
14. 80% of Jobs WILL disappear
in their current form
15. The Case of Transportation
•Fully Autonomous Cars by 2020 available to Public
(According to Uber and Google)
•Gone: $198B Auto Insurance Market, $98B Auto
Finance Market, $100B Parking Industry, $300B
Automotive Aftermarket
•Also Gone: 884K Jobs in manufacturing, 3.02M
Dealer and Maintenance, 6M professional driving
jobs,
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-
reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/
16. Sectors of Employment in the US
2014
12 %
6 %
5 %
1 %
76 %
Services
Agriculture
Unemployed
Self Employed
Manufacturing
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html
Other Sectors
17. Sectors of Employment in the US 2014
12 %
6 %
5 %
1 %
76 %
Services
Agriculture
Unemployed
Self Employed
Manufacturing
Sectors of Employment in the US 2024?
10 %
65 %
5 %
1 %
19 %
Services
Agriculture
Unemployed
Self Employed
Manufacturing
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html
18. Two Ways this can go
Craft and
Artisanal
Spectrum of Jobs
The people
close to the
servers
“Normal Jobs”
The Good Scenario:
• Interest Based Micro-Work
• Universal Basic Income
• Fab-Labs, Interest Networks
• Talent / Craft Match
• Universal Hyper Renaissance
• Work is not a necessity
The Bad Scenario:
• Global Gig Workforce
• Global De-Coupling of wealth
• No Universal Basic Income
• the 0.00001% vs. the rest
• Class Warfare
19. The Positive Take
• Talent / Work Mismatch around 80% right now. Most
people don’t work on what they are good at
• Money is not a scarce resource anymore
• Universal Basic Income will come
• Ubiquitous Availability of Talent and Interest Based
Microwork
• The Star Trek Vision: People won’t have to work for
their daily bread anymore
20. The Ingredients of the “Next
Stage”
1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence
2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy
3. Ubiquitous Natural Language Access to
EVERYTHING
21. The rise of the messenger
• Usage has surpassed
Social Networks
• WeChat leading the
way
• Slackbots
• FB Messenger
Platform
22. We Chat
• Messaging with
Friends AND Strangers
• Local Discovery
• Premier Way to
communicate with
Brands and
Businesses Online and
Offline
• Payment
• On Demand
Everything
23. Your Phone now giving you access to
EVERYTHING, ANYTIME, ANYWHERE
http://fin.ventures
25. 1990 1996 2008 2016
Pre-Web Web Apps Conversational
Intuitive Un-Intuitive Semi-Intuitive Intuitive
Session-Based AsynchronousSession-Based Session-Based
9-5 Always On Always On Always On
26. Ubiquitous Smartphones
Messaging, Bots, Natural Language Interfaces
Existing and accessible large data sets
Existing Engines
+
+
+
=
Access To EVERYTHING, ANYWHERE, ANYTIME
29. The World OS Stack
Engines / Data Human Microworkers
API’s
Customer Service SalesAWS
booking.com
AIR-BnB
Ebay TripAdvisor Domain Experts
Intelligent Dispatch Layer
Software Bots / AI
Scheduling
Google Calendar
Translation Info Aggregation
NLP Digestion Layer
Platform LayerWeChat FB Messenger WhatsApp SMS
Human Users
UI
Stripe
Voice
Payment
Robots / Cars
Text
31. Implications
• Google might loose its’ Gatekeeper function and new
Gatekeepers will emerge
• The power is shifting back to consumers. No more
display ads, “recommended reading”, landing pages, etc.
• The heavy lifting will be done on the service/server side.
The magic happens behind the scenes. No more
“Onboarding”, “Interface Paradigms”, etc.
• Brands/businesses will REALLY have to have a
conversation with their user/customers
32. Select Opportunities along
the stack
• Disrupting existing B2C businesses with Conversational
interfaces: Shopping, Booking, etc.
• Specialised and universally available AI modules:
Scheduling, Translation, Booking, Semantic Analysis, NLP
• Organising Microwork: Recruiting, Managing, etc
• New funnels, new metrics, new advertising: New SaaS
opportunities
• Messaging platform play (unlikely)