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The World OS

In this presentation hat I gave at our Faber Portfolio day this year I am trying to build a model of how AI, Robotics and Conversational Interfaces will create a Superstack subsuming the current Internet and the majority of the global workforce.

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The World OS

  1. 1. The World OS Felix Petersen, Faber Ventures 2016
  2. 2. The last 10 years… Booooooring •The Future from 1999 (Nokia Communicator anyone?) got evenly distributed •Apple and Google as Gatekeepers in the App Economy •No Oxygen for new Startups •Yet another Ultra Specific SaaS> •Everything felt really incremental
  3. 3. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge     
  4. 4. 2010 2015 2020
  5. 5. The Ingredients of the “Next Stage” 1.Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence
  6. 6. Pseudo AI • Parser and Decision Tree based • ELIZA Bots ANI • Domain Specific, ‘real’ AI • Machine Learning • Bots on Messengers AGI / ASI • General Artificial Intelligence • Super Artificial Intelligence (SAI) • Some incomprehensible Shit • Most likely Extinction 1965 2015 2040
  7. 7. There are only two more stages for our species: The Next The Last
  8. 8. http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence- revolution-1.html
  9. 9. The Ingredients of the “Next Stage” 1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence 2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy
  10. 10. 80% of Jobs WILL disappear in their current form
  11. 11. The Case of Transportation •Fully Autonomous Cars by 2020 available to Public (According to Uber and Google) •Gone: $198B Auto Insurance Market, $98B Auto Finance Market, $100B Parking Industry, $300B Automotive Aftermarket •Also Gone: 884K Jobs in manufacturing, 3.02M Dealer and Maintenance, 6M professional driving jobs, http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and- reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/
  12. 12. Sectors of Employment in the US 2014 12 % 6 % 5 % 1 % 76 % Services Agriculture Unemployed Self Employed Manufacturing http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html Other Sectors
  13. 13. Sectors of Employment in the US 2014 12 % 6 % 5 % 1 % 76 % Services Agriculture Unemployed Self Employed Manufacturing Sectors of Employment in the US 2024? 10 % 65 % 5 % 1 % 19 % Services Agriculture Unemployed Self Employed Manufacturing http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html
  14. 14. Two Ways this can go Craft and Artisanal Spectrum of Jobs The people close to the servers “Normal Jobs” The Good Scenario: • Interest Based Micro-Work • Universal Basic Income • Fab-Labs, Interest Networks • Talent / Craft Match • Universal Hyper Renaissance • Work is not a necessity The Bad Scenario: • Global Gig Workforce • Global De-Coupling of wealth • No Universal Basic Income • the 0.00001% vs. the rest • Class Warfare
  15. 15. The Positive Take • Talent / Work Mismatch around 80% right now. Most people don’t work on what they are good at • Money is not a scarce resource anymore • Universal Basic Income will come • Ubiquitous Availability of Talent and Interest Based Microwork • The Star Trek Vision: People won’t have to work for their daily bread anymore
  16. 16. The Ingredients of the “Next Stage” 1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence 2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy 3. Ubiquitous Natural Language Access to EVERYTHING
  17. 17. The rise of the messenger • Usage has surpassed Social Networks • WeChat leading the way • Slackbots • FB Messenger Platform
  18. 18. We Chat • Messaging with Friends AND Strangers • Local Discovery • Premier Way to communicate with Brands and Businesses Online and Offline • Payment • On Demand Everything
  19. 19. Your Phone now giving you access to EVERYTHING, ANYTIME, ANYWHERE http://fin.ventures
  20. 20. Operator Domain Specific General AI Agents Human Agents GAI-Territory x.ai unbabel chat- shopper Fin Mission Control Luka White Rabbit Magic GoButler chat- shopper Digits Penny Hard Stop for now
  21. 21. 1990 1996 2008 2016 Pre-Web Web Apps Conversational Intuitive Un-Intuitive Semi-Intuitive Intuitive Session-Based AsynchronousSession-Based Session-Based 9-5 Always On Always On Always On
  22. 22. Ubiquitous Smartphones Messaging, Bots, Natural Language Interfaces Existing and accessible large data sets Existing Engines + + + = Access To EVERYTHING, ANYWHERE, ANYTIME
  23. 23. The Ultimate Superpower
  24. 24. The World OS
  25. 25. The World OS Stack Engines / Data Human Microworkers API’s Customer Service SalesAWS booking.com AIR-BnB Ebay TripAdvisor Domain Experts Intelligent Dispatch Layer Software Bots / AI Scheduling Google Calendar Translation Info Aggregation NLP Digestion Layer Platform LayerWeChat FB Messenger WhatsApp SMS Human Users UI Stripe Voice Payment Robots / Cars Text
  26. 26. https://www.theinformation.com/on-bots-conversational-apps-and-fin
  27. 27. Implications • Google might loose its’ Gatekeeper function and new Gatekeepers will emerge • The power is shifting back to consumers. No more display ads, “recommended reading”, landing pages, etc. • The heavy lifting will be done on the service/server side. The magic happens behind the scenes. No more “Onboarding”, “Interface Paradigms”, etc. • Brands/businesses will REALLY have to have a conversation with their user/customers
  28. 28. Select Opportunities along the stack • Disrupting existing B2C businesses with Conversational interfaces: Shopping, Booking, etc. • Specialised and universally available AI modules: Scheduling, Translation, Booking, Semantic Analysis, NLP • Organising Microwork: Recruiting, Managing, etc • New funnels, new metrics, new advertising: New SaaS opportunities • Messaging platform play (unlikely)
  29. 29. https://www.theinformation.com/the-end-of-tech-startups http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/25/beyond-the-1-percent/ http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html https://www.technologyreview.com/s/425818/kurzweil-responds-dont-underestimate-the-singularity/ http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/25/global-economy-globalrecession https://aeon.co/essays/has-progress-in-science-and-technology-come-to-a-halt http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy- by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/ http://fusion.net/story/173244/there-are-probably-way-more-people-in-the-gig-economy-than-we-realize/ https://www.theinformation.com/on-bots-conversational-apps-and-fin https://www.producthunt.com/@chrismessina/collections/convcomm https://medium.com/chris-messina/2016-will-be-the-year-of-conversational-commerce-1586e85e3991#.eistwydbg http://www.businessinsider.com/the-messaging-app-report-2015-11 http://www.wired.com/2013/03/conversational-user-interface/ https://www.messenger.com/business?ref=producthunt&_rdr http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/6/10718282/internet-bots-messaging-slack-facebook-m http://a16z.com/2015/08/06/wechat-china-mobile-first/
  30. 30. felix@faber.vc @fiahless