Presented by Mark Mathiesen, Impact Weather.

5. Atlantic Basin Yearly Average 9.8 Named Storms 5.8 Hurricanes 2.5 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or >) Peak Season Early August Through Mid October Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Hurricanes 90-95% Aug 1 Oct 22

6. A Hurricane is a Heat Engine Warm/Moist Inflow at Surface Outflow Aloft

7. Year Population Coastal County Population Texas to Maine 1900-2000 53% of population now live within 50 miles of the coast

8. Increased Coastal Development is a Major Problem Source: Pielke, 2000 Miami Beach 2006 Miami Beach 1926 $100 million damage $200 Billion damage

11. 2-20 ft. 3-24 ft. 4-28 ft. 5-32 ft. 6-36 ft. Should NOT be Used to Estimate Storm Surge The Former Saffir-Simpson Scale

12. New for 2009 – The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

14. HSI Values for Well-Known Tropical Cyclones at Landfall 5 3 2 Edouard ’08 27 16 11 Andrew ’92 (LA) 8 5 3 Humberto ’07 11 8 3 Dolly ’08 11 7 4 Claudette ’03 20 9 11 Gustav ‘08 22 11 11 Alicia ‘83 26 10 16 Rita ‘05 27 10 17 Ike ‘08 36 11 25 Opal ‘05 36 13 23 Katrina ‘05 36 22 14 Camille ‘69 37 12 25 Wilma ‘04 40 15 25 Betsy ‘65 42 17 25 Carla ‘61 Total Intensity Size HSI Hurricane

15. Ivan / Dennis Comparison (20 size) (6 size)

16. Ike / Alicia Comparison Alicia damage computed in 2006 dollars (19 size) (11 size)

17. Ike / Dolly Comparison (19 size) (4 size)

19. HSI Values for US landfalling 2008 Storms 3 2 1 50 – TS Fay 5 3 2 60 – TS Edouard 8 4 4 70 – TS Hanna 10 7 3 90 – Cat 1 Dolly 20 9 11 105 – Cat 2 Gustav 27 10 17 110 – Cat 2 Ike Total Intensity Size HSI Wind (mph) Saffir-Simpson Name

21. Average (75%) Forecast Error Average 5-Day Error 840 mi. Diameter Circle

22. Remember! The threat from hurricanes often extends far beyond the error cone! 6-8ft Tides Dangerous Surf 39 58 74

24. Hurricane Ike

25. 80-85 85-90 90-95 75-80

26. Peak Wind Gust 134 mph in Deer Park

27. Chase Tower – Houston

29. Doors “Sucked” Out Doors Blown In Hurricane Gustav Garage Door/Roof Failure

30. Securing Your Garage Door According to the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, about 80% of residential hurricane wind damage starts with wind entry through garage doors. A common 26-gauge double-wide garage door will fail with winds of only 70 mph, leading to possible catastrophic roof failure. Adding a simple brace to the door can prevent the door from being blown in or sucked out – even with winds of 180 mph. http://www.securedoor.com SecureDoor – Available at Lowe’s $139 / brace

32. Inland Wind Decay

35. Inland Penetration of 74+ mph Winds (Cat. 3 moving 14 mph)

36. Category 2 Ike Produced Hurricane-Force Winds Nearly to Lufkin

39. Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning

40. Houston Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning

41. Hurricane Ike Rainfall – Second Event Saturday Night / Sunday Morning

42. Includes precipitation from the post-Ike cold front

43. Storm Surge

46. Shallow water offshore – gentle slope (NW Gulf Coast) Deep water offshore - steep slope (East U.S. Coast)

47. Large Waves Ahead of a Hurricane Can Cut Off Evacuation Routes Days Before Landfall

48. Hurricane Ike

49. Houston/Galveston Area Storm Surge Inundation

51. Emerald Beach – Bolivar Peninsula

52. Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008

53. Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008

54. 1900 1912 First Baptist Church - Galveston

57. http://www.onestorm.org/

58. Organize Contact Info & Rally Locations

61. Important Papers Reminder

62. “ To-do” list at the end

64. Water – 1 gal./day per Person http://mywatersafe.com Collapsible containers allow you to store all the water you’ll need for both drinking and cleaning just hours before impact.

65. http://worldprep.com/ http://www.readykit.com/ All-in-One Kits Offer Convenience $60 and up

66. Fluorescent LED $30 Battery-Powered Lighting Halogen $40 Xenon / LED $50 LED and fluorescent lights can last days on a set of batteries. A rechargeable light is great is you have a generator. Figure on 1 light per person.

67. Pocket-Size NOAA $50-$60 Crank Radio LED Light Phone Charger NOAA With TV Band $40-$60 Staying in Touch

68. X Analog TV Digital TV TV Signals Are Now Digital As of June 12, 2009, all analog TV broadcasts will be discontinued, rendering your analog portable TVs worthless (without a powered converter box + antenna input). $30-$50 $80-$150 http://stormprepare.com/Battery_TV.htm

69. Battery-Powered Fan A fan can make it easier to get some sleep when the power is out. Some units can operate for several days on a set of batteries. http://www.batterysavers.com/ $30

70. Generator for Backup Power $350 2 hr. run time $800 Higher output / 12-14 hr. run time

72. $100 $200-$700 Line Conditioners Essential for Clean Power Sensitive electronic equipment requires a stable power source. Never plug such devices directly into a generator, unless your generator has a built-in line conditioner. http://www.lashen.com/vendors/tripplite/conditioners/desktop.asp or http://www.tripplite.com/

73. Carbon Monoxide Detector $20-$25 Carbon monoxide is a colorless and odorless gas produced as your generator is running. It can kill you and your family as you sleep. CO only CO + smoke $30-$35

74. Automobile Power Inverter Allows you to use your car to provide AC power to small devices/appliances. Note: Car engine should be running or you’ll run down your battery $30 and up http://www.tripplite.com/

75. Staying Cool After the Storm $100-$150 A low-cost window AC unit can be installed in minutes. Powered by your generator, it can both cool and dehumidify your bedroom – allowing you to get a good night’s sleep during a prolonged power outage.

77. Taping Windows Does NOT Protect Your Home

78. Proper Window Protection Fabric – Vinyl/PVC/Kevlar Plywood – ¾” Recommended Corrugated Metal Protective Screens Goal – prevent rapid air infiltration, which could cause roof failure and total destruction of your home. Have plywood cut BEFORE the season begins.

79. Hurricane Jeanne Damage in Florida - 2004 Home on the right had hurricane panels on windows

83. Evacuation Zones by Zip Code http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html

84. Proposed NHC Storm Surge Warning Map

85. Houston Area Contraflow Locations http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html

86. Contraflow on I-10 begins at Brookshire

87. Contraflow on I-45 begins Near Conroe

88. Contraflow on Hwy. 59 begins north of Humble

89. Contraflow on Hwy. 290 begins at Hwy. 6

93. Outlook for the 2009 Season

95. El Ni ñ o vs. La Ni ña Hello there it El Ni ñ o causes extra thunderstorm development over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes a response in the atmosphere over the Atlantic basin of increased shear and sinking air, causing a drier and more stable atmosphere. La Ni ñ a causes a reduction and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less shear. Upper winds Upper winds

96. Comparing April 2008 and 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures April 2008 SST Anomalies April 2009 SST Anomalies

97. El Niño?? Neutral La Niña April 2009 Forecast from NCEP

98. Warm 1870-1900 Warm 1926-1969 Warm 1995 – 2025? Cool 1900-1926 Cool 1970-1994 The Active Cycle Continues in 2009, Though it’s Probably Peaked Above-Normal SSTs can be Expected for Another 10-15 Years

99. Cold Atlantic Warm Atlantic Florida and U.S. East Coast Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2006

100. Analog Years

101. Some 2009 Forecasts Dr. Bill Gray / Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State): 12 NS / 6 H / 2 MH Dr. Mark Saunders (Tropical Storm Risk – UK): 15 NS / 8 H / 4 MH NC State University 11-14 NS / 6-8 H / No prediction of MH

104. 2009 Names Kate Wanda Joaquin Victor Ida Teresa Henri Sam Grace Rose Fred Peter Erika Odette Danny Nicholas Claudette Mindy Bill Larry Ana

107. Questions? Hurricane Emily from ISS July 17, 2005 John Phillips, NASA