The Internet, and the concept of cyberspace, has changed many aspects of human relations in recent years. One of the most important trends is emerging groups of people with common interests or aims which creates a special kind of society in cyberspace that we call cyber-society. The interesting characteristics of such societies, including how the society is created, how the people find each other, how they interact and share interests and ideas, and how the society grows or falls make this area a unique one to study and understand. According to the fact that this is a strong trend today, the question is: What will be the future of cyber-societies? In this article, a new concept, “Cyber-nation” is introduced and its various aspects are discussed as a probable future of the cyber-societies. The author tends to describe various effects of emerging cyber-nations in politics, economy, society and international relations.
Why Teams call analytics are critical to your entire business
From Cyber-Societies to Cyber-Nations
1. From Cyber-Societies to
Cyber-Nations
How the technology will shape the world in the future
KHANDAN, Farzad
Futures Studies Research Center
IKIU, Iran
fkhandan@simiagaran.net
21st WFSF World Conference – Bucharest, Romania - 2013June 27, 2013
3. Internet Users
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Dec. 31, 2000 Latest Data
Millions
Africa
Asia
Europe
Middle East
North America
Latin America / Caribbean
Oceania / Australia
WORLD TOTAL
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
5. Internet Users
World Regions
Penetration
(% Population)
Growth
2000-2012
Users %
of Table
Africa 15.6 % 3,606.7 % 7.0 %
Asia 27.5 % 841.9 % 44.8 %
Europe 63.2 % 393.4 % 21.5 %
Middle East 40.2 % 2,639.9 % 3.7 %
North America 78.6 % 153.3 % 11.4 %
Latin America / Caribbean 42.9 % 1,310.8 % 10.6 %
Oceania / Australia 67.6 % 218.7 % 1.0 %
WORLD TOTAL 34.3 % 566.4 % 100.0 %
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
6. Facebook Users in Regions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
March, 2011 March, 2012
Millions
Europe
Asia
North America
South America
Central America
Africa
Middle East
Oceania / Australia
Caribbean, the
World Total
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
8. Behavioral Impact
Facebook Statistics Data
Total number of monthly active Facebook users 1,110,000,000
Total number of mobile Facebook users 680,000,000
Increase in Facebook users from 2011 to 2012 26 %
Total number of minutes spent on Facebook each month 700 billion
Percent of all Facebook users who log on in any given day 50 %
Average time spent on Facebook per visit 20 minutes
Facebook Demographics Data
Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook when they wake up 48 %
Percent of 18-34 year olds who check Facebook before they get out of bed 28 %
Average number of friends per facebook user 130
Average number of pages, groups, and events a user is connected to 80
Average number of photos uploaded per day 250
Number of fake Facebook profiles 83,000,000
Source: www.statisticbrain.com
11. Cyber-Threats & Reactions
A Pentagon Project that “Makes Cyberwar as Easy
as Angry Birds”
Thirteen leading technology providers, together
with announced the formation of a new
cybersecurity technology alliance.
Countries around the world are now preparing to
fight a cyberwar.
Source: www.shapingtomorrow.com
16. e-Government Trends
Social Re-engineering
Active Engagement
Knowledge Management
Use of Social Networking to re-engineer processes, systems and organizations
Mobile Adoption
Bring your own device
More connected society - government
Re-shaping business operating models – getting more social
Cloud Computing
Again – toward centralized computing models
Big Data
Toward sophisticated visualization
More A. I. (Artificial Intelligence)
Pattern Discovery, real meaning, smart responses
Digital Identity vs. Physical Identity
17. Summary
The world is going more ON-LINE
People enjoy more being NETWORKED and living a
VIRTUALLY CONNECTED life
Being ON-LINE is not bound to TIME and PLACE
Cyber-Alliances SHAPE by external forces (like threats)
Social Activities increasingly tend to have Web
Presence
The relationship between People and Government is
changing
There are threats as well as opportunities in cyber-
space
19. Simple Definitions
Nation
Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a
single tribe or community, which share a common
language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.
A community of people who share a common
language, culture, ethnicity, descent, or history.
A large group of people of the same race and language
State
An independent political unit holding sovereignty over
a territory.
20. Nation-State
A state associated with a particular nation and a sovereign territorial unit.
Nation-states are building blocks of today international politics and
relationship.
An Independent State:
Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries.
Has people who live there on an ongoing basis.
Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign
and domestic trade and issues money.
Has the power of social engineering, such as education.
Has a transportation system for moving goods and people.
Has a government which provides public services and police power.
Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's
territory.
Has external recognition by other nation-states.
21. Nation-State History
Westphalian sovereignty: Treaty of Westphalia
a series of peace treaties signed in 1648 in Europe
and ended the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) in the
Holy Roman Empire, and the Eighty Years' War (1568–
1648) between Spain and the Dutch Republic.
Modern Nation-States: Legitimate states that
govern effectively are widely regarded today as the
defining characteristics of a modern nation-state.
23. Imaging the Futures of Nation-State
Approach: Nuts-Bolts
Focus: Simple structural model of Nation-State
What can be changed?
Relationships
The entities (Nation, State, Territory)
Cyber-nation: All imaginable futures of Nation-State that
Cyberspace and IT play a magnificent role and replaces
some of the entities and functions in the legacy model
The questions:
What changes are more Probable?
What changes are more Plausible?
What changes are more Preferred?
24. Relationships
Nation to Nation
Virtual Contact vs. Physical Contacts
E-Relationship
Social Medias – Social Networks
E-Culture
Nation to State
E-Government
E-Participation
Nation to Territory
Virtual Reality vs. Physical Presence
What about Immigrants?
E-Culture
State to Territory
What are the imaginable sort of connecting a State to Territory?
E- Sovereignty?
25. Territory
Possibilities
No Borders, No Territory
Cyber-Territory
Virtually Connected Distinct Territories
On Earth
Universally Distributed
Plausible by 2050?
26. State
Virtual State
International/Interstate Agencies
Virtual Army, E-Military, Cyberwars
E-Terrorism, E-Dictatorship, E-Cults
“…in a tectonic shift, individuals and small groups will have
greater access to lethal and disruptive technologies (particularly
precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror
weaponry), enabling them to perpetrate large-scale violence—a
capability formerly the monopoly of states…” Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, U. S. A.
The role of A. I.
The Matrix Trilogy?
Is it plausible by 2050?
27. Nation
Back to Definition of Nation
Culturally homogeneous groups of people, larger than a single
tribe or community, which share a common
language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.
Multiculturalism
Cyberspace – leading to cultural unification or diversity?
Multiple destinies
Multiple languages
Multi-national States
Will cyberspace and social networks help creating a shared
vision?
Different Cyber-histories?
29. Future Works:
Cyber-nation, Drivers and Limits
Power
Justice
Politics
Honor
Wealth
Kindness
Advertisement
/ Promotion
Rationale
Insight /
Outlook
Action
Lotus Theoretical Framework
Work in progress, Farzad Khandan
30. Conclusions
There are multiple alternatives thinking about the
future of Nation-State in the context of Cyberspace
Each alternative future can be derived by starting
from the legacy model and replacing some of the
entities and functions by their cyber counter parts
Among the alternatives, some are plausible in
2050
We need a holistic and flexible framework to
analyze the future of cyber-nations. Such a
framework has to be designed.