Choosing the Electric Avenue: Unlocking Savings, Emissions Reductions, and Community Benefits of Electric Vehicles

C H O O S I N G E L E C T R I C
AV E N U E
U N L O C K I N G S AV I N G S , E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N S , A N D
C O M M U N I T Y B E N E F I T S O F E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
John Farrell
Director of Energy DemocracyJune 21, 2017

“That was like a roller coaster”

6 R E A S O N S W E N E E D T O
A C T N O W

1S U R G I N G S A L E S
QuarterlyEVSales(thousands)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Each quarter in 2016 has
seen higher EV sales
than the same quarter in
any prior year
Source: Inside EVs / UCS

1EVSales(millions)
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
2016 actual
U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S
Annual sales, plug-in hybrid and all-electric

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P
1 0 - Y E A R S AV I N G S
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
2017 Nissan Leaf v. Nissan Versa
10-year sched. maintenance savings
10-year fuel cost savings (est.)
Battery replacement cost (est.)
Does not include typical repairs
unique to gasoline cars, including
timing belts, water pumps, etc.
2

W H AT C A R H A S
T H E H I G H E S T
C U S T O M E R
S AT I S FA C T I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !
Photo credit: Fred Seibert via Flickr, http://bit.ly/2rOnE5i

A. Porsche Carrera
B. Tesla Model S
C. BMW 328i
D. Volkswagen Beetle
E. Ford Focus

3H I G H C U S T O M E R S AT I S FA C T I O N F O R
E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S
Source: Inside EVs, from Consumer Reports: http://bit.ly/2n7zENP
Tesla Model S
Chevrolet Volt
Honda Accord Hybrid
Ford Fusion Energi
Toyota Prius
Nissan Leaf
0 25 50 75 100
77
82
84
85
85
98
Percentage of owners who would definitely purchase the same vehicle again
Tesla Model S
Audi A8
Lexus LS
Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Hyundai Equus
Porsche Panamera
0 25 50 75 100
80
80
81
81
84
98
Hybrids / Electric Vehicles
Large Luxury Cars

Percentofdailytravelthisdistance
0%
10%
20%
30%
< 1 mile 1-5 miles 6-15 miles 16-30 miles 31-45 miles 46-60 miles 61-120 miles 121+ miles
S U F F I C I E N T R A N G E N O W
The Nissan
Leaf’s 107-mile
range is enough
for 83% of daily
automobile use
Source: 2009 FHWA NHTS
Daily vehicle miles traveled
4

B E T T E R R A N G E C O M I N G 5

6U . S . E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S A L E S F O R E C A S T S
EVBatteryCapacity(megawatts)
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Initiative (target)
EIA Navigant
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
Batteries of new EVs equal
30,000 MW of capacity (on
a Level 2 charger)
Typical utility 15-year
resource plan

C O S T O F I N A C T I O N ?
Photo credit: John Biehler via Flickr, http://bit.ly/2rOo0Ja

N E T B E N E F I T S O F N O T H I N G
Source: California Transportation
Electrification Assessment
(October 2014)

Percentincreaseinpeakenergydemand
0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
P R E S S U R E O N P E A K
Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts Peak Demand
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
EVs
23%
Percent of Vehicle Fleet

W H I C H D E V I C E
C A N D O T H E M O S T
T O I N C R E A S E G R I D
B E N E F I T S O F E V S ?
P O L L T I M E !

I N C E N T I V I Z E B E N E F I C I A L C H A R G I N G
T I M E S
1

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
X C E L E N E R G Y
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
Hour of the day
Regular rate
Summer surcharge
D A K O TA
E L E C T R I C
( B A S I C )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour cents per kilowatt-hour
charging
not available
D A K O TA
E L E C T R I C
( T O U )
Hour of the day
cents per kilowatt-hour
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12 1 6 12 6 12

E V C H A R G I N G R AT E S
*Off-peak rates also apply to weekends and holidays
S A C R A M E N T O M U N I C I PA L

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E C H A R G I N G TA R I F F S
Source: Northeast Group, ILSR
Adopted June 2015 or earlier
Under consideration

Level 2
Charging
DC Quick
Charging
Level 1
Charging
Source: fleetcarma
120-volt
~ 1.3 kilowatts
240-volt
~ 3.3 - 6.6 kilowatts
440-volt
~ 50 kilowatts
2D E P L O Y I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

L E V E L 2 V E R S U S L E V E L 1
Nissan Leaf 30 kWh
Tesla Model S 60 kWh
Tesla Model S 100 kWh
0 20 40 60 80
15 hours
9 hours
4.5 hours
Level 2 charging time (6.6 kW)
Additional time to charge at Level 1 (1.3 kW)
23 hours
46 hours
77 hours

U T I L I T Y F I N A N C E D ?
For every 15 new customers, the utility would recoup
about $24,000 in new revenue over the first ten years of
vehicle ownership, enough to pay for 15 home Level 2
chargers and 1 public charger.+ 10 years
$24,000
=
15 EV home chargers
1 public charger
Revenue from electricity sales to
15 electric vehicles over 10 years

6 B I G B E N E F I T S O F
A C T I O N
Photo credit: Grant Tarrant via Flickr, http://bit.ly/2rOiFBM

0
3
6
9
12
Minnesota California Texas New York Hawaii
1.3%
0.6%0.9%
1.3%
0.5%
9%
3.4%
4.9%
11.1%
3%
Uncontrolled Controlled
T H E T I M E I S R I G H T
Managed Electric Vehicle Charging Lowers Peak Demand Impact Several States
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
1

W H AT A R E T H E
AV E R A G E A N N U A L
S AV I N G S O F
C H A R G I N G O F F -
P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car;
off-peak assumed to be 3¢ per kilowatt-hour

W H AT A R E T H E
AV E R A G E A N N U A L
S AV I N G S O F
C H A R G I N G O F F -
P E A K ?
P O L L T I M E !
A. $100
B. $500
C. $1,000
D. $5,000
E. $1 million
Compared to average fuel economy gasoline car;
off-peak assumed to be 3¢ per kilowatt-hour

0
300
600
900
1200
1500
$980
$1,470
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Standard electricity rates Off-peak electricity rates
15,000 miles 10,000 miles 15,000 miles 10,000 miles
$680
$1,000
O F F - P E A K C H A R G I N G I N C R E A S E S
S AV I N G S O F D R I V I N G E L E C T R I C
Annual average savings compared to driving on gasoline, U.S. states
2

P R O J E C T E D A N N U A L F U E L S AV I N G S
E L E C T R I C V. G A S C A R S
Driving 15,000 miles per year, charging on off-peak rates
$1,200 to $1,400
$1,400 to $1,600
$1,600 to $1,920
2

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S C A N
P R O V I D E G R I D S E R V I C E S
-7 kW
-5 kW
-3 kW
-1 kW
1 kW
3 kW
5 kW
7 kW
0 kW
Charging
Discharging
kilowatts
6.6 kW ancillary
services bid
13.2 kW
ancillary
services bid
Car with charge-only
capability
Car with vehicle-to-grid
capability
3

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at home
Percent at work
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
EV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Most electric vehicles are idle when
the grid needs them
Hour of the day
41%
31%
3

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Percent at home
Percent at work
Electricity demand w/o EVs
Electricity demand w EVs
R E A D Y T O C H A R G E
Hourly load (ScottMadden): http://bit.ly/2hm527XEV location source: http://bit.ly/2hlRn3u
Charging EVs could solve “ramping”
issues by absorbing daytime solar
energy production
Hour of the day
3
1.5 million cars

H O W M A N Y E V S
C A N C H A R G E W I T H
O V E R N I G H T
C A PA C I T Y I N T H E
M I D W E S T G R I D
R E G I O N ?
P O L L T I M E !

A. 50,000
B. 150,000
C. 1.5 million
D. 7.5 million
E. 22.5 million
P O L L T I M E !
H O W M A N Y E V S
C A N C H A R G E W I T H
O V E R N I G H T
C A PA C I T Y I N T H E
M I D W E S T G R I D
R E G I O N ?

Hour of the day (CDT)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Wind output Chosen day Year before
Low overnight demand
July 31, 2016
A M P L E O V E R N I G H T P O W E R S U P P LY
0
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
150,000
Midwest Region daily demand curve
4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
July 31, 2016
0
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
150,000
Extra wind power at night
4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
July 31, 2016
0
50,000
megawatt-hours
100,000
150,000
Plenty of available capacity
Extra wind power at night
50,000 MWh = enough to charge 7.5 million cars
4

5
E L E C T R I C B U S H E A LT H B E N E F I T S
97% reduction in particulates
140 tons less of CO2 per year
$150,000 annual savings
Credit: Proterra

A marriage of sexy electrics: Over 1 in
10 EV owners also has rooftop solar
https://ilsr.org/report-electric-vehicles/
6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for
grid power (2).
1 2
6

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows
further, solar can power the entire local grid and “backfeed” to
the larger grid (3).
1 2 3

As solar grows, it reduces demand for grid power (2). If it grows further, solar can power the
entire local grid and “backfeed” to the larger grid (3). Adding electric vehicles (4) can
absorb this excess local production.
1 2 3 4

S U M M A RY: A C T N O W
6 Reasons to act
6 Benefits of action
Easy ways to act2
10k 98 83% 2018 30 GW
7.5m

Electric car adoption will
happen faster than we expect

T H A N K Y O U !
@johnffarrell
www.ilsr.org
C H A N G I N G
T H E R U L E S
P R O V I D I N G
T O O L S
1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E
L O C A L E C O N O M Y
H U M A N
S C A L E
L O C A L
O W N E R S H I P
D E M O C R AT I C
A U T H O R I T Y
I L L U S T R AT I N G
T H E V I S I O N

Choosing the Electric Avenue: Unlocking Savings, Emissions Reductions, and Community Benefits of Electric Vehicles

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Choosing the Electric Avenue: Unlocking Savings, Emissions Reductions, and Community Benefits of Electric Vehicles