The causes of the crisis in Ukraine are mainly geopolitical and strategic. What is at stake is not, in fact, Ukraine's accession to the European Union because this has very little to offer in promoting the country's development. Ukraine only has to lose. Many industries will no longer operate or will be dominated by European multinationals and small farmers will be ruined. But what the United States intends through the incorporation of Ukraine to the European Union is, above all, allow NATO forces are stationed on the border of Russia. The most likely future scenario for the outcome of the political crisis in Ukraine is the division of the country, with the Crimea already incorporated into Russia and the transformation of eastern, central-eastern and southern Ukraine in an autonomous region of Kiev government if it is held the agreement of the European Union and Ukraine or occur its annexation to Russia if NATO forces are stationed in Ukraine. The civil war that has started in Ukraine can turn into a military conflict involving NATO forces and Russia to unpredictable consequences.

1. 1
THE IMPASSE COMPLEX IN RUSSIA-UKRAINE POLITICAL CONFLICT
Fernando Alcoforado *
There are three aspects that must be considered in the analysis of conflict involving
Russia and Ukraine at the moment: 1) the common origin of the Russian and Ukrainian
peoples; 2) the Ukrainian internal crisis; and, 3) the geopolitical issue. On the common
origin of the Russian and Ukrainian people, it is important to emphasize that Kiev was
the cradle of current Russian civilization because in the ninth century, when it formed
the so-called Kievan State or Rus' that gathered the Eastern Slavs, there was no
difference between Big Russian (current Russian), Small Russian (the current
Ukrainian) and White Russians (the current Belarusian) that formed a people only [See
the book Os Russos (The Russians) of Angelo Segrillo. São Paulo: Editora Contexto,
2010, page 99].
According to the Brazilian diplomat and historian Moniz Bandeira, "until the twelfth
century, the so-called Rus' Kievan, was a confederation of Eastern Slavic tribes,
virtually the greatest power in Europe, to cover the current Byelorussia and part of
Russia. In 1795, the ancient Kievan Rus's, west of the Dnieper River, which flows into
the Black Sea, was partitioned. Russia annexed most of the region, all kanato of Crimea,
and the Austro-Hungarian Empire under the Habsburg dynasty, dominated the other,
including Galicia (Halychyna), Central Europe, until 1918". After the Bolshevik
Revolution in 1917, Ukraine was established as a national state and, in 1922, was added
to the Belarus and Transcaucasia, in the formation of the Union of Soviet Socialist
Republics [See the text Moniz Bandeira aponta aliança entre ONGs ocidentais e
neonazistas na Ucrânia (Moniz Bandeira points alliance between Western NGOs and
neo-Nazis in Ukraine) posted on the website
<http://pcb.org.br/fdr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=584:moniz-
bandeira-aponta-alianca-entre-ongs-ocidentais-e-neonazistas-na-
ucrania&catid=5:entrevistas-com-a-historia>].
The former Soviet Union of which is connected Ukraine was industrialized by means of
a structural integration involving all its republics, in order to ensure greater territorial
stability. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the Eastern European countries found
themselves very interdependent, a fact that still applies today in many ways. Currently,
Ukraine is dependent commercially and economically of Russia, because provide
Ukraine with natural gas, primary energy source for the country, and for being the main
buyer of many raw materials produced by the Ukrainian economy. In addition, in the
east - where people still speak Russian - many companies rely on sales to Russia.
Ukraine, called traditionally the "little Russia" cannot become detached from Russia, of
which much depends, above all for its gas supplies. And Ukraine accession to the
European Union, allowing the advance of NATO to the borders of Russia, of course
tend to break all the geopolitical balance of Eurasia, a vast land and river region, to the
Middle East that allows the Black Sea and important energy areas (gas and oil)
communications to the Mediterranean Sea.
The recent political crisis in Ukraine that led to the overthrow of the Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych, is the result of political instability that marks the region
for several years. When the European Union proposed to Ukraine to sign a treaty of free
trade, Russia, by contrast, offered better economic agreement and, according to some
versions not confirmed officially, if the Ukrainian government did not accept, Russia
threatened to cut off the supply of natural gas and the purchase of Ukrainian products

2. 2
and impose customs restrictions. This episode further sharpened the differences between
the two main Ukrainian political groups: the pro-Western and pro-Russian. The decision
of the government of Viktor Yanukovych not to sign the free trade agreement with the
European Union but with Russia was the trigger that led to the violent demonstrations
that led to his removal from power.
After the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, there was the creation of a
new pro-European Union government and anti-Russia, which incited the separatist
tensions in the Crimean peninsula, a Russian majority, leading to a military escalation
with Russian government action in the region. The Crimea held a referendum which
approved its accession to Russia, and the government of Vladimir Putin proceeded with
the incorporation of the territory, despite the disapproval of the West. In May 2014,
Petro Poroshenko was elected president of Ukraine and a month later signed the
agreement with the European Union which was the pivot of the whole crisis. The
signing took place amid clashes in the east, scene of a separatist pro-Russia, and the
threats and criticism of Russia's government.
After the accession of Crimea to Russia, parts of eastern Ukraine, a Russian majority,
began to suffer from separatist tensions. Militants pro-Russian have taken public
buildings in the city of Donetsk and proclaimed as "sovereign republic", marking a
referendum on national sovereignty to May 11, 2014. The measure was not recognized
by the Ukrainian government nor by the West. The referendum came to be conducted
and independence was approved by 89% of votes. With the new tension in the region,
Russia has asked Ukraine to give up all kinds of military preparations to deter pro-
Russian protests in the regions of eastern Ukrainian, since they could give rise to a civil
war. The government of Ukraine, however, began an anti-terrorist operation in the
region to combat the separatists, with thousands of deaths on both sides. Russia came to
mobilize troops on the border, which was convicted of Kiev and the West. Some of the
troops were subsequently withdrawn, but the tension remained in the region.
After 16 hours of negotiations, between 11 and 12 February this year, was signed
between the separatists, the president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, the Russian
President, Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President,
Francois Hollande, a cease-fire agreement and the creation of demilitarized zone.
According to the signed agreement, the withdrawal of heavy artillery for the creation of
an up to 140 km disarmament zone was to commence on 16 February. Two days after
the ceasefire agreed between European leaders came into force, conflict between the
Ukrainian army and separatist forces were recorded in Debaltseve, strategically
positioned between Donetsk and Lugansk city in eastern Ukraine. Since the entry into
force of the truce, at least five Ukrainian soldiers were killed and nine injured in
conflicts in Debaltseve and Mariupol, port city coveted by the rebels. Thousands of
Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded by rebel forces in Debaltseve.
The causes of the crisis in Ukraine are mainly geopolitical and strategic. What is at
stake is not, in fact, Ukraine's accession to the European Union because this has very
little to offer in promoting the country's development. Ukraine only has to lose. Many
industries will no longer operate or will be dominated by European multinationals and
small farmers will be ruined. But what the United States intends through the
incorporation of Ukraine to the European Union is, above all, allow NATO forces are
stationed on the border of Russia. The most likely future scenario for the outcome of the
political crisis in Ukraine is the division of the country, with the Crimea already

3. 3
incorporated into Russia and the transformation of eastern, central-eastern and southern
Ukraine in an autonomous region of Kiev government if it is held the agreement of the
European Union and Ukraine or occur its annexation to Russia if NATO forces are
stationed in Ukraine. The civil war that has started in Ukraine can turn into a military
conflict involving NATO forces and Russia to unpredictable consequences.
One hypothesis that has been mooted is that the United States is behind the current
decline in oil prices to affect the economies of enemy countries such as Russia, Iran and
Venezuela. It should be noted that oil and natural gas account for over 68% of export
revenues in Russia and more than 50% of the government budget. Because of the fall in
oil prices, Russia suffered a violent speculative attack with the country's capital flight
that resulted in a sharp drop in the purchasing power of its currency, the ruble. The
worsening economic situation resulting from Russia's price drop of oil and the
economic strangulation resulting of sanctions imposed by the US and European Union
may radicalize the conflict with the United States making the Russian government
decides on preventive military intervention in Ukraine that could further strengthen the
power of Vladimir Putin in charge of Russia mobilizing the nation against foreign
enemies.
*Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.