1. How to work with carriers and shippers to
secure capacity and stabilise rates?
Rolf Habben-Jansen November 24th, 2010

2. The oceanfreight market is fragmented with multiple
carrier options that are not all the same
Supply & demand will continue to set the agenda in years to come
No. of idle containerships
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
December/09
July/09
July/10
January/09
April/09
January/10
April/10
March/09
March/10
August/09
August/10
May/09
September/09
September/10
February/09
May/10
June/09
October/09
Source: Shanghai freight index Oct ’09-Oct ’10 Source: Alphaliner
The increase in capacity during 2010 has lead to decreasing rates the last few months
Predicting both supply & demand is difficult – and the trick is to accept your own
ignorance/shortcomings and focus on managing uncertainty 2

3. The forecasting horizon is limited……..
In our view the market only has a firm 2 week forecasting horizon, based on the
bookings placed (and a slightly longer 4-6 weeks on the supply side)
It is possible to have an educated opinion on the situation 1-3 years into the
future, however, short/medium term most people are driving blindfolded.
New Containership Deliveries 08-11
250,000
200,000
150,000
TEU 100,000
50,000
0
Source: Alphaliner
3

4. Our approach to secure space……..
In this dynamic & uncertain situation, supplier relationship management and
your own global organisation is key to be better than competition at getting
cargo moved
Our view is very straightforward:
1) Select your strategic partners
2) Invest in the relationship
3) Deliver on your commitments
4

5. Our approach to stability………
We manage the carrier portfolio
and the deals:
Deals
- One and two year deals are being
made, usually at a premium.
- The majority of the capacity is
contracted for 3 or 6 months.
- Spot rates and monthly rates have
become more important
Carriers
- The portfolio is actively managed
- Value pools are identified and
managed
Our approach is to work with you to
develop the right mix for your Two additional points:
business between long and short term
deals and between carriers. Volume committment/dead-freight has rarely
being used for ocean freight, but going forward
Once we have agreed the mix we do this will change – the question is how much and
our utmost to stick to the deals made when
with all parties
It is being attempted to create a ’futures’ freight
market, but we are uncertain as to how
significant this will become.
5

6. In closing………
1. Supply & demand will continue to set the prices
2. Forecasting both supply & demand is difficult – especially short to medium
term
3. Supplier relationship management and delivering on your commitments is
what will get your cargo moved
4. We will work with you to determine which mix between long and short term
contracts and between carriers is the best for you!
6