1. Achieving Supply Chain Resilience
Managing the Known Unknowns
24 November 2010

2. Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense
US Department of Defense news briefing, February 12th, 2002.
"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always
interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there
are things we know we know. We also know there are known
unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not
know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know
we don't know."
Unknown
IV III
Known
I I II
Knowns Unknowns
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 2

3. Is your supply chain suffering from disruptions?
9/11
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 3

4. Not all supply chain disruptions are the same
Supply chain disruptions are different in impact and predictability
High
Financial
9/11
crisis
SARS
Government
Impact
Volcano regulations
Eruptions
Piracy
attacks Port
Strike
Accidents
Low
Low High
Predictability
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 4

5. Supply chain disruptions have a direct impact on your company’s
financial performance
Impact Drivers
Company value:
 Free Cash Flow
 Economic Profit
 Return on Capital
The trends to extend supply chains and make them leaner have increased the
vulnerability of these supply chains to volatility in transportation
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 5

6. How can you make your supply chain more resilient to the
challenges in the transportation market?
Drivers
Predictability Network
Carrier Management Redesign
Selection
Transport Location
Management Strategy
Mode Disruption
Optimization Management Inventory
strategy
Collaborative
Carrier Risk
Route Solutions Management Sourcing
Optimization Strategy
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent, but
the one most responsive to change” (Charles Darwin).
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 6

7. Something to think about …
Peak oil: what are the consequences for your (extended) supply chains?
Global Oil Consumption versus discoveries Global Oil Production and Consumption
1960-2050 (projected)
Sources: Futurist.com
ASPO-Ireland, Newsletter,
August 2007; U.S. Energy
Information Administration,
World Petroleum
Consumption, 2008; and
Management Information
Services, Inc., 2008
$50 or $180 Per Barrel Of Oil ?!?!
Unknown
IV III
Known
I I II
Knowns Unknowns
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 7

8. Thank You!
November 2010 3PL summit: Supply Chain Resilience 8