OS20 Online 8 December Poster

1. 1EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Sarah R. Mielke, MPH, PhD1
Co-authors:
Rebecca Garabed, VMD, MPVM, PhD2
Laura Pomeroy, PhD3
Current Location
1) ORISE Fellow, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, ARS/APHIS -
CEAH sarah.mielke@usda.gov; sarah.mielke@gmail.com / USA
2) The Ohio State University, College of Veterinary Medicine / USA
3) The Ohio State University, College of Public Health / USA
PREDICTING FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE VIRUS
IN TROPICAL ENDEMIC SETTINGS USING AN
AGENT-BASED MODELING FRAMEWORK

2. 2EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Persistence of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in endemic tropical
environments presents a gap in our knowledge. This leads us to question how
FMDV persistence influences disease dynamics, in these environments, as an
indirect route of transmission.
As a result of our previous meta- and survival analyses1, we have found that when high
temperature and Relative Humidity exist, FMDV could persist in tropical regions.
Therefore we ask:
• Does an indirect route of transmission influence prediction of epidemics in this tropical setting?
• What proportion of infections will result from an indirect route of transmission?
• In this complex system, of sedentary and mobile herds, will indirect transmission influence disease
dynamics?
Focus
1. Mielke, S. R., & Garabed, R. (2019). Environmental persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus applied to endemic regions.
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13383

3. 3
2. Moritz, M. (2018). Data from: Spatial and temporal characteristics of pastoral mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon:
data analysis and modeling. Movebank data repository.
• Our objective was to build an Agent-based
model using known movement data2 and our
previous work to simulate the endemic
tropical region in the Far North of Cameroon.
• This modeling technique allowed us to
develop agents that would interact based on
a set of rules, while allowing patterns of
environmental persistence (contamination)
to emerge.
Objectives
EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se

4. 4
 Indirect transmission results in the emergence of a seasonal pattern of
FMD outbreaks
 Direct transmission accounts for the majority of infections
 Model predictions suggest that environmental contamination increases
the proportion of indirect infection early in the dry season.
 The differences in proportion of indirect transmission by herd type and
timing of direct infections in mobile herds suggests that herd mobility
influences transmission.
Outcomes
EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se

5. eufmdvirtual.com
8, 10, 15, 17 December 2020
EuFMD / Open Session